不确定条件下物流地产投资开发规模与时机问题研究
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摘要
随着我国国民经济的快速发展,尤其是零售业和制造业的高速增长,社会对物流地产的需求迅速膨胀,这引起了国家对物流地产行业的高度关注和重视。同时,意识到物流地产中的商机之后,不少开发商或物流企业对其表现出了浓厚兴趣。本文以物流地产投资开发规模与时机为研究主线,在学习、总结和吸收国内外相关研究成果的基础上,结合物流地产投资开发项目的具体属性,从不确定性角度,基于实物期权方法探讨了物流地产开发企业的投资开发策略。本文共分为六个部分。
(1)绪论。总结了国内外已有的相关研究结论与成果,介绍了实物期权的理论与方法、实物期权在房地产中应用,提出了论文研究的思路、技术路线与方法、分析框架。
(2)基于VAR的物流地产投资开发市场风险分析。本章主要介绍了风险的概念及其测量工具VaR的基本原理及计算方法,最后以成都市物流地产投资开发市场为例,以物流地产投资开发完成额作为市场风险的考查对象,选定市场风险因素来构建市场风险测量模型并进行实证分析。
(3)物流地产用地投资开发转换的规模与时机研究。本章首先对物流地产的用地性质与特征进行了界定,接着在土地价格服从算数布朗运动的情况下,讨论物流地产用地转换的规模与时机问题,最后考虑税收问题进行了拓展研究。
(4)完全竞争市场下物流地产投资开发规模与时机研究。本章主要运用实物期权分析的思想,构建离散分析的两阶段实物期权模型,并进行比较静态分析,讨论了完全竞争市场(地产价格外生)的情况下,物流地产开发商的开发规模与时机问题。
(5)双寡头垄断市场下物流地产投资开发规模与时机研究。本章首先介绍了双寡头地产市场已有的相关研究,然后分析了双寡头单位开发规模和时机尤其是领先开发商的开发时机问题,并进一步讨论了不同开发规模下两寡头垄断开发商开发规模与时机问题,最后对领先开发商开发规模与时机、两寡头垄断开发商的相互影响进行了剖析。
(6)完全垄断市场下物流地产投资开发规模与时机研究。针对完全垄断的物流地产市场,本章主要进行了两个方面的工作：其一,分析了需求随机且成本函数非线性下完全垄断物流地产市场的投资开发时机与规模问题；其二,分析了投资开发建设成本与物流地产市场需求均随机且考虑项目开发建设成本现值情况下物流地产商的投资开发时机与规模问题。
总之,本文主要是基于不确定性、连续时间与实物期权方法下对物流地产投资开发规模与时机问题进行了系统的研究与分析,弥补了国内在该领域研究的不足,丰富了相关研究工作与结论,不仅可以为物流地产开发商的理性投资开发决策提供帮助,而且还可以为政府进行物流地产项目规划提供理论支持。
With the rapid development of China's economy, especially the rapid growth of retail and manufacturing, needs of the logistics real estate rapid expansion, which caused the high degree of concern of the national logistics real estate industry. Aware of the business opportunities in the logistics real estate, many developers and logistics enterprises show a great interest in it too. Logistics real estate industry in China is still an emerging industry, the study of its investment decision-making is still quite scarce. The main object of the research is the scale and timing of logistics real estate investment. Combined with the specific properties of the logistics real estate investment projects and with Uncertainty nalysis point of view, this paper discusse the investment strategies of the logistics real estate enterprise using the real options approach on the basis of the summarize and absorbing domestic and foreign research results. The full text is consists of six parts.
(1)Introduction. This part introduces the real options theory and method and the application of real options in real estate on the base of the existing international research results and achievements. This part put forward methods and analysis framework of this paper.
(2) VAR-based market risk analysis of logistics real estate investment. This chapter first introduces the concept of risk and the basic principles and methods of computation of the risk measurement tools VaR. Finally, taking the Chengdu logistics real estate investment market as a example, this part selected market risk factors to build a market risk measurement model and have empirical analysis which take the completed amount of logistics real estate investment as the market risk examine object.
(3) Logistics real estate land investment scale and timing of conversion. This chapter first define the properties and characteristics of logistics real estate land, then discuss the size and timing of logistics real estate land conversion issues in the case of land prices obey arithmetic Brownian motion. Finally, this chapter have expand reseach considering the tax factor.
(4) Research of the logistics real estate investment scale and timing in perfectly competitive market. This part mainly use the idea of real options analysis to construct a discrete analysis of a two-stage real options model and have comparative static analysis to discuss the scale and timing of logistics real estate development in the case of a perfectly competitive market (real estate prices exogenous).
(5) Research of the logistics real estate investment scale and timing in duopoly market. This chapter first introduces related research of duopoly real estate market, then analyzes the development scale and timing of single developer in a duopoly market and the development scale and timing in different development scale. Finally, this part analyze the development scale and timing of the leading developer and the interaction of two oligopolistic developers.
(6) Research of the logistics real estate investment scale and timing in Complete monopoly market. This chapter first have analysis of the logistics real estate investment scale and timing in Monopoly logistics real estate market in the case of stochastic demand and nonlinear cost function. Then considering the present value of the project construction costs, this chapter analyze the logistics real estate investment scale and timing when both the investment cost and the demand for logistics real estate are stochastic
In short, this paper have a analysis of logistics real estate investment scale and timing which based on uncertainty, continuous time and real option methods. This study makes up for the lack of domestic research in this field and enriches the research work and conclusions. This study can not only help the logistics real estate developers to make rational investment decision but also provide theoretical support for government when it have logistics real estate projects planning.
(1)绪论。总结了国内外已有的相关研究结论与成果,介绍了实物期权的理论与方法、实物期权在房地产中应用,提出了论文研究的思路、技术路线与方法、分析框架。
(2)基于VAR的物流地产投资开发市场风险分析。本章主要介绍了风险的概念及其测量工具VaR的基本原理及计算方法,最后以成都市物流地产投资开发市场为例,以物流地产投资开发完成额作为市场风险的考查对象,选定市场风险因素来构建市场风险测量模型并进行实证分析。
(3)物流地产用地投资开发转换的规模与时机研究。本章首先对物流地产的用地性质与特征进行了界定,接着在土地价格服从算数布朗运动的情况下,讨论物流地产用地转换的规模与时机问题,最后考虑税收问题进行了拓展研究。
(4)完全竞争市场下物流地产投资开发规模与时机研究。本章主要运用实物期权分析的思想,构建离散分析的两阶段实物期权模型,并进行比较静态分析,讨论了完全竞争市场(地产价格外生)的情况下,物流地产开发商的开发规模与时机问题。
(5)双寡头垄断市场下物流地产投资开发规模与时机研究。本章首先介绍了双寡头地产市场已有的相关研究,然后分析了双寡头单位开发规模和时机尤其是领先开发商的开发时机问题,并进一步讨论了不同开发规模下两寡头垄断开发商开发规模与时机问题,最后对领先开发商开发规模与时机、两寡头垄断开发商的相互影响进行了剖析。
(6)完全垄断市场下物流地产投资开发规模与时机研究。针对完全垄断的物流地产市场,本章主要进行了两个方面的工作：其一,分析了需求随机且成本函数非线性下完全垄断物流地产市场的投资开发时机与规模问题；其二,分析了投资开发建设成本与物流地产市场需求均随机且考虑项目开发建设成本现值情况下物流地产商的投资开发时机与规模问题。
总之,本文主要是基于不确定性、连续时间与实物期权方法下对物流地产投资开发规模与时机问题进行了系统的研究与分析,弥补了国内在该领域研究的不足,丰富了相关研究工作与结论,不仅可以为物流地产开发商的理性投资开发决策提供帮助,而且还可以为政府进行物流地产项目规划提供理论支持。
With the rapid development of China's economy, especially the rapid growth of retail and manufacturing, needs of the logistics real estate rapid expansion, which caused the high degree of concern of the national logistics real estate industry. Aware of the business opportunities in the logistics real estate, many developers and logistics enterprises show a great interest in it too. Logistics real estate industry in China is still an emerging industry, the study of its investment decision-making is still quite scarce. The main object of the research is the scale and timing of logistics real estate investment. Combined with the specific properties of the logistics real estate investment projects and with Uncertainty nalysis point of view, this paper discusse the investment strategies of the logistics real estate enterprise using the real options approach on the basis of the summarize and absorbing domestic and foreign research results. The full text is consists of six parts.
(1)Introduction. This part introduces the real options theory and method and the application of real options in real estate on the base of the existing international research results and achievements. This part put forward methods and analysis framework of this paper.
(2) VAR-based market risk analysis of logistics real estate investment. This chapter first introduces the concept of risk and the basic principles and methods of computation of the risk measurement tools VaR. Finally, taking the Chengdu logistics real estate investment market as a example, this part selected market risk factors to build a market risk measurement model and have empirical analysis which take the completed amount of logistics real estate investment as the market risk examine object.
(3) Logistics real estate land investment scale and timing of conversion. This chapter first define the properties and characteristics of logistics real estate land, then discuss the size and timing of logistics real estate land conversion issues in the case of land prices obey arithmetic Brownian motion. Finally, this chapter have expand reseach considering the tax factor.
(4) Research of the logistics real estate investment scale and timing in perfectly competitive market. This part mainly use the idea of real options analysis to construct a discrete analysis of a two-stage real options model and have comparative static analysis to discuss the scale and timing of logistics real estate development in the case of a perfectly competitive market (real estate prices exogenous).
(5) Research of the logistics real estate investment scale and timing in duopoly market. This chapter first introduces related research of duopoly real estate market, then analyzes the development scale and timing of single developer in a duopoly market and the development scale and timing in different development scale. Finally, this part analyze the development scale and timing of the leading developer and the interaction of two oligopolistic developers.
(6) Research of the logistics real estate investment scale and timing in Complete monopoly market. This chapter first have analysis of the logistics real estate investment scale and timing in Monopoly logistics real estate market in the case of stochastic demand and nonlinear cost function. Then considering the present value of the project construction costs, this chapter analyze the logistics real estate investment scale and timing when both the investment cost and the demand for logistics real estate are stochastic
In short, this paper have a analysis of logistics real estate investment scale and timing which based on uncertainty, continuous time and real option methods. This study makes up for the lack of domestic research in this field and enriches the research work and conclusions. This study can not only help the logistics real estate developers to make rational investment decision but also provide theoretical support for government when it have logistics real estate projects planning.
引文
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