不确定条件下企业景区投资决策研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,我国旅游业发展迅速,已经成为国民经济的支柱产业。目前,我国旅游业正处在产业的转型升级期,旅游投资进入高峰。其中,以资源为依托的景区,由于具有资源不可再生性、经营垄断性以及长期和巨大的市场发展空间,而成为企业投资的热点。景区投资具有长周期、高投入和旅游需求波动大的特点,企业在投资时面临着极大的不确定性和风险性。为了保证投资的有效性和促进旅游业持续稳定的发展,对不确定条件下企业景区投资决策进行研究具有重要意义。
实物期权是投资决策的前沿理论,通过对不确定性的规范化思考和期权定价方法的应用,使企业做出最优投资决策。与其他投资项目不同,旅游产品的需求量是影响投资回报的主要因素;景区经营易受突发事件影响;景区投资过程中涉及较多的利益主体。为了解决景区投资中的这些问题,本论文借助实物期权中相关理论,对景区投资决策进行了系统研究,构建了相应的模型,并运用MATLAB软件对模型进行数值分析和对现实投资经济现象进行解释。希望从理论角度探索景区投资的理性决策,为企业景区投资实践提供一个规范参照,从而为旅游业的持续稳定发展做出贡献。
本论文的创新之处在于:
1、将实物期权理论和思维方式引入到景区投资决策中,对不确定条件下企业景区投资决策进行了系统研究。本文在对景区投资中的不确定性因素进行定性分析的基础上,研究了旅游需求不确定下、突发事件影响下、企业与其他利益主体博弈中的景区投资决策,构建了不确定条件下企业景区投资决策理论体系。不仅丰富了实物期权理论的研究内容和拓展了其应用范围,而且弥补了景区投资研究理论的不足。
2、利用实物期权的最优投资时机理论,根据景区的特点,即景区门票价格具有相对稳定性,旅游需求量是影响景区投资收入和经营利润的最主要因素,假设景区投资期限是有限制的,景区年接待旅游者人数服从几何布朗运动,建立了旅游需求不确定条件下企业景区最优时机选择模型。
3、利用跳跃扩散实物期权理论,假设景区接待旅游者人数服从一个随机变量的跳跃-分散过程,建立了单一突发事件影响下的景区投资决策模型;假设景区项目价值服从多个随机变量的跳跃—分散过程,建立了多个同类型突发事件影响下的景区投资决策模型;在保留“跳跃”幅度随机分布假定的框架下,运用不依赖于“跳跃”具体分布形式的实物期权定价模型,建立了多个不同类型突发事件影响下的景区投资决策模型。
4、根据旅游资源开发涉及多个不同利益主体的特点,利用不完全信息实物期权理论对企业的景区投资决策进行了研究。将地方政府和当地居民所采取的行为作为噪声,分别假设噪声服从均值回归过程和几何布朗运动,分别建立了企业与地方政府博弈中和企业与当地居民博弈中的景区投资决策模型,并分析了不完全信息对企业景区投资的影响。在传统投资决策分析中,各利益主体的利益诉求往往被作为社会问题加以定性处理,无法在景区项目的定量经济评价中加以体现。本文将其作为投资中的不确定性因素,引入到企业的景区投资决策中,弥补了传统景区投资决策在这方面的缺憾。
The tourism industry has been developed rapidly in China since the reform and opening. It has become a pillar industry of national economy. At present, the tourism industry is in the upgrading period, and tourism investment is in the peak. Among them, the resource-based visitor attractions have become a hot because of its non-renewable resources, monopolistic operating and its huge market with long-term development. Long cycle, high input and large fluctuation of tourism demand are the characteristics of tourism investment. Companies are facing significant uncertainty and risk when they invest. To ensure the effectiveness of investment, and to promote the tourism industry develop continuously and stably, it is important to study the investment decision-making of visitor attractions under the uncertainty for companies.
The Real Options is the forward theory of investment decision-making. It enables companies to make optimal decision by the standardization of thinking uncertainties and the application of option pricing methods. Difference from other projects, there are some issues in the investment of visitor attractions, such as tourism demand is the main factor affecting returns, the operating is vulnerably affected by unexpected events, and more stakeholders are involved. In order to solve these issues, this thesis studies the investment decision-making systematically with the theory of Real Options. The corresponding models are built, numerical analysis is done by using MATLAB software, and the real economic phenomena are explained. It is hoped to explore the rational decision of visitor attractions from a theoretical point, to provide a standardized reference for companies in practice, and to make contribute for the stable development of the tourism industry.
Innovations of this thesis are:
A.The theory of Real Options is introduced into the area of visitor attractions investment, and the investment decision-making under the uncertainty for companies is studyed systematically. Based on the qualitative analysis of the uncertain factors, this thesis researches the investment decision-making under the uncertainty of tourism demand, the influence of unexpected events and in the games with other stakeholders respectively. The theoretical system of the investment decision-making under the uncertainty is built. It not only enriches the research content of the Real Options Theory, but also expands its scope of application. The researching deficiency of the theory of visitor attractions investment is made up.
B.The economic attributes of visitor attractions is re-defined. The standard judgments of public goods are "non-competitive" and " non-exclusive". The re-defining is not only from the standards, but also from linking with a certain organization, its benefit and the institutional arrangements. This laid a theoretical foundation for companies being allowed to invest visitor attractions under the transferring the operating right.
C.The model of the optimal investment timing under the uncertainty of tourism demand for companies is built. It based on the Real Options Theory of the optimal investment timing, and is according to the characteristics of visitor attractions investment. That is the ticket price is stable relatively, and the main factor affecting return and profit is tourism demand. And it is in the assumptions of the limited investment period, the number of tourists being obey a Geometric Brownian motion.
D.Based on the Real Options Theory of jump diffusion, assuming that the number of tourists is subject to a random variable jump - dispersion process, the investment decision-making model is built under the influence of a single incident. And assuming that the project value is subject to multiple random variables jump - decentralized process, the investment decision-making model is built under the influence of a number of similar incidents. Retaining the assumption of random distribution of the "jump" rate, using the real options pricing model of“jumping”specific distribution being not dependent on, the investment decision-making model is established under the influence of a number of different types of incidents.
E.It is involved many more stakeholders in the development of tourism resources. According this, this thesis researches the investment decision-making based on the Real Options theory under incomplete information. Taking the acts of the local government and the residents as a noise respectively and assuming the noise obey the process of mean reversion and geometric Brownian motion relatively; the investment decision-making model for companies in the game with the local government and the model in the game with the residents are built. And the influence of the incomplete information is analyzed. In the traditional investment theory, the interests of each stakeholder are often handled as a social problem qualitatively. It can not be reflected in the economic evaluation quantitatively. This thesis takes it as an uncertain factor in the investment, and introduces it into the decision-making. This makes up the deficiency of the traditional theory.
实物期权是投资决策的前沿理论,通过对不确定性的规范化思考和期权定价方法的应用,使企业做出最优投资决策。与其他投资项目不同,旅游产品的需求量是影响投资回报的主要因素;景区经营易受突发事件影响;景区投资过程中涉及较多的利益主体。为了解决景区投资中的这些问题,本论文借助实物期权中相关理论,对景区投资决策进行了系统研究,构建了相应的模型,并运用MATLAB软件对模型进行数值分析和对现实投资经济现象进行解释。希望从理论角度探索景区投资的理性决策,为企业景区投资实践提供一个规范参照,从而为旅游业的持续稳定发展做出贡献。
本论文的创新之处在于:
1、将实物期权理论和思维方式引入到景区投资决策中,对不确定条件下企业景区投资决策进行了系统研究。本文在对景区投资中的不确定性因素进行定性分析的基础上,研究了旅游需求不确定下、突发事件影响下、企业与其他利益主体博弈中的景区投资决策,构建了不确定条件下企业景区投资决策理论体系。不仅丰富了实物期权理论的研究内容和拓展了其应用范围,而且弥补了景区投资研究理论的不足。
2、利用实物期权的最优投资时机理论,根据景区的特点,即景区门票价格具有相对稳定性,旅游需求量是影响景区投资收入和经营利润的最主要因素,假设景区投资期限是有限制的,景区年接待旅游者人数服从几何布朗运动,建立了旅游需求不确定条件下企业景区最优时机选择模型。
3、利用跳跃扩散实物期权理论,假设景区接待旅游者人数服从一个随机变量的跳跃-分散过程,建立了单一突发事件影响下的景区投资决策模型;假设景区项目价值服从多个随机变量的跳跃—分散过程,建立了多个同类型突发事件影响下的景区投资决策模型;在保留“跳跃”幅度随机分布假定的框架下,运用不依赖于“跳跃”具体分布形式的实物期权定价模型,建立了多个不同类型突发事件影响下的景区投资决策模型。
4、根据旅游资源开发涉及多个不同利益主体的特点,利用不完全信息实物期权理论对企业的景区投资决策进行了研究。将地方政府和当地居民所采取的行为作为噪声,分别假设噪声服从均值回归过程和几何布朗运动,分别建立了企业与地方政府博弈中和企业与当地居民博弈中的景区投资决策模型,并分析了不完全信息对企业景区投资的影响。在传统投资决策分析中,各利益主体的利益诉求往往被作为社会问题加以定性处理,无法在景区项目的定量经济评价中加以体现。本文将其作为投资中的不确定性因素,引入到企业的景区投资决策中,弥补了传统景区投资决策在这方面的缺憾。
The tourism industry has been developed rapidly in China since the reform and opening. It has become a pillar industry of national economy. At present, the tourism industry is in the upgrading period, and tourism investment is in the peak. Among them, the resource-based visitor attractions have become a hot because of its non-renewable resources, monopolistic operating and its huge market with long-term development. Long cycle, high input and large fluctuation of tourism demand are the characteristics of tourism investment. Companies are facing significant uncertainty and risk when they invest. To ensure the effectiveness of investment, and to promote the tourism industry develop continuously and stably, it is important to study the investment decision-making of visitor attractions under the uncertainty for companies.
The Real Options is the forward theory of investment decision-making. It enables companies to make optimal decision by the standardization of thinking uncertainties and the application of option pricing methods. Difference from other projects, there are some issues in the investment of visitor attractions, such as tourism demand is the main factor affecting returns, the operating is vulnerably affected by unexpected events, and more stakeholders are involved. In order to solve these issues, this thesis studies the investment decision-making systematically with the theory of Real Options. The corresponding models are built, numerical analysis is done by using MATLAB software, and the real economic phenomena are explained. It is hoped to explore the rational decision of visitor attractions from a theoretical point, to provide a standardized reference for companies in practice, and to make contribute for the stable development of the tourism industry.
Innovations of this thesis are:
A.The theory of Real Options is introduced into the area of visitor attractions investment, and the investment decision-making under the uncertainty for companies is studyed systematically. Based on the qualitative analysis of the uncertain factors, this thesis researches the investment decision-making under the uncertainty of tourism demand, the influence of unexpected events and in the games with other stakeholders respectively. The theoretical system of the investment decision-making under the uncertainty is built. It not only enriches the research content of the Real Options Theory, but also expands its scope of application. The researching deficiency of the theory of visitor attractions investment is made up.
B.The economic attributes of visitor attractions is re-defined. The standard judgments of public goods are "non-competitive" and " non-exclusive". The re-defining is not only from the standards, but also from linking with a certain organization, its benefit and the institutional arrangements. This laid a theoretical foundation for companies being allowed to invest visitor attractions under the transferring the operating right.
C.The model of the optimal investment timing under the uncertainty of tourism demand for companies is built. It based on the Real Options Theory of the optimal investment timing, and is according to the characteristics of visitor attractions investment. That is the ticket price is stable relatively, and the main factor affecting return and profit is tourism demand. And it is in the assumptions of the limited investment period, the number of tourists being obey a Geometric Brownian motion.
D.Based on the Real Options Theory of jump diffusion, assuming that the number of tourists is subject to a random variable jump - dispersion process, the investment decision-making model is built under the influence of a single incident. And assuming that the project value is subject to multiple random variables jump - decentralized process, the investment decision-making model is built under the influence of a number of similar incidents. Retaining the assumption of random distribution of the "jump" rate, using the real options pricing model of“jumping”specific distribution being not dependent on, the investment decision-making model is established under the influence of a number of different types of incidents.
E.It is involved many more stakeholders in the development of tourism resources. According this, this thesis researches the investment decision-making based on the Real Options theory under incomplete information. Taking the acts of the local government and the residents as a noise respectively and assuming the noise obey the process of mean reversion and geometric Brownian motion relatively; the investment decision-making model for companies in the game with the local government and the model in the game with the residents are built. And the influence of the incomplete information is analyzed. In the traditional investment theory, the interests of each stakeholder are often handled as a social problem qualitatively. It can not be reflected in the economic evaluation quantitatively. This thesis takes it as an uncertain factor in the investment, and introduces it into the decision-making. This makes up the deficiency of the traditional theory.
引文
注5 2007年以前的有关文献,详见刘涛.基于实物期权的房地产开发投资决策研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2007年
注16详见刘涛.基于实物期权的房地产开发投资决策研究[D].第137页,上海:上海交通大学,2007年
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