反潜巡逻飞机搜潜辅助决策系统建模与仿真研究
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摘要
随着潜艇朝高速、深潜和低噪声方向发展,使反潜作战更加困难和复杂。与反潜潜艇、反潜水面舰艇和反潜直升机等兵力相比,反潜巡逻飞机具有快速反应能力强、航程远、留空时间长、可装备多种搜潜设备和攻潜武器,以及不易受到潜艇攻击的优势,已成为世界海军强国竞相发展的装备。正是由于现代反潜巡逻飞机搜攻潜手段的多样性,以及反潜战中存在的大量不确定因素,使得仅仅依靠指挥员的经验已经难以胜任反潜作战任务。因此,运用先进的计算机技术和现代决策理论建立作战指挥辅助决策系统,为指挥员提供有效的作战方案,最大限度地发挥反潜巡逻飞机的效能,已成为现代反潜巡逻飞机研制中的重要研究方向。
由于飞机和潜艇处于不同的介质,潜艇具有很强的隐蔽性,反潜巡逻飞机在作战中的大部分时间都是用于对潜艇的搜索,对潜搜索方案的优化和决策是反潜作战指挥辅助决策系统最重要的功能。因此,论文以反潜指挥控制系统中的搜潜方案辅助决策为对象,分析现代航空反潜作战特点和搜索决策过程,研究航空搜潜辅助决策系统必须具备的主要功能和基本框架;研究潜艇位置的散布规律,推导出各种搜潜手段的搜索效能。最后,运用现代决策系统理论,建立适用于反潜作战中搜索方案优化决策的数学模型,并对模型进行仿真验证。
论文首先研究了潜艇的使用特点、反潜巡逻飞机的特点、几种主要的航空搜潜手段及其特点,分析了航空反潜作战中指挥员的决策过程,将搜潜方案决策分为两级,即在声纳浮标、磁探仪、雷达、红外搜索仪和电子监测系统等不同手段及其组合中选择搜索手段,即一级搜索方案的决策;然后,针对反潜巡逻飞机以声纳浮标为主要搜索手段的运用方式和声纳浮标布阵使用的特点,以取得最大搜索效能为出发点,研究如何确定声纳浮标的搜索方案和选择布阵图形,即二级搜索方案的决策。按照搜潜方案决策过程,进而确定了反潜作战指挥辅助决策系统的主要功能,提出了反潜作战指挥辅助决策系统的基本框架。
根据反潜巡逻飞机在执行应召搜索和巡逻搜索任务时所拥有的目标信息,针对当前搜潜效能评估中对潜艇位置的假设存在过于简单和不甚合理的情况,研究了潜艇位置的初始散布规律和运动后的散布规律,提出了执行巡逻搜索和应召搜索任务时的潜艇初始位置和运动后的位置散布模型。在此基础上,建立了各种潜艇散布规律条件下的搜潜效能评估数学模型,为开展搜潜方案决策模型研究提供了输入参数。
研究了航空反潜搜索的基本模式以及作战环境条件变化情况下搜索手段作用距离的预报问题。在此基础上,对声纳浮标、雷达、红外搜索仪和磁探仪的应召搜索、巡逻检查搜索效能进行了研究,建立了声纳浮标搜索阵、雷达、红外搜索仪和磁探仪的规则图形搜索效能评估模型,以及雷达、红外搜索仪和磁探仪的随机搜索效能评估模型。
考虑到一级搜索方案决策中存在着一些影响决策的模糊因素,在综合搜潜效能,以及搜索隐蔽性、可操作性和经济性等因素基础上,运用模糊决策理论研究了选择不同搜索手段及其组合对潜艇搜索的一级搜索方案优化决策数学模型,特别是增加了声纳浮标逐渐消耗对因素权重影响的研究,引入了与消耗品存有量有关的、基于层次分析法(AHP)的可变因素模糊集向量,并通过计算备选方案与理想方案之间的模糊距离,来衡量所选择的方案接近理想方案的程度,建立了针对不同状态潜艇的搜索行动方案优选模型。
针对一级搜索方案选择带有声纳浮标的方案,而各种搜索阵型的输入和输出可以事前分析得到的情况,为减少因采用模糊决策方法带来的人为权重分配的主观性,论文运用更加客观的数据包络分析法(DEA)选择二级搜索方案。在根据声纳浮标使用特点的基础上,构建了DEA的评价对象和指标,通过分析比较多种搜索阵形的相对有效性来选择最佳搜索图形,特别是针对搜索系统输出指标用概率值表征、边际效应明显的情况,重点研究并提出了用决策者偏好修正概率型输出量的方法。在此基础上,建立了在多种声纳浮标搜索阵形中择优且带有决策者偏好的决策模型,使评价结果既具有较强的客观性,又充分尊重决策者的主观意愿。
论文给出的所有效能评估和决策数学模型,均经过严格的数学推导和计算机仿真验算。从几组典型条件下的计算结果来看,模型公式合理、结论可信,可运用于为指挥员提供反潜作战指挥搜潜方案辅助决策。
论文还对建立反潜巡逻飞机搜潜辅助决策系统的总体设计方案进行了研究。
论文首次系统地采用现代决策理论对反潜指挥决策系统进行理论研究,具有重要的学术价值,研究成果对指导反潜巡逻飞机作战指挥辅助决策系统研制和开展航空反潜搜索效能评估研究均具有重要的参考价值。
With the development of submarine in the tendency towards high speed, deep diving, and low noise, antisubmarine warfare (ASW) is becoming more difficult and complicated. Compared with other ASW forces such as ASW submarine, ASW surface vessel and ASW helicopter, ASW patrol aircraft that has feature of rapid respond, long voyage and endurance, can be equipped with various search equipment and attacking weapons. With the advantage of invulnerability by submarine attack, ASW aircraft has become one of armaments, so many navy powers are competing to develop it. There are so many choices of searching and attacking submarine means and all the uncertainties existed in ASW, commanders cannot afford to cope with the ASW tasks merely depending on their experience. How to apply the computer technology and modern decision theory to build up the Operational Command and Decision Assistance System(OCDAS), Which can assist them to provide the operational plans for commanders and exert operational efficiency of antisubmarine aircraft maximally, is a significant field in developing modern antisubmarine patrol aircraft.
Both the vehicles operate in different environmental media from aircraft, and also submarine is of stealthy, so antisubmarine aircraft has to spend most of time to search it. The most important function of OCDAS is to optimize the search plans. The dissertation therefore focuses on OCDAS to research and establish the mathematical models of optimized searching plan.
First of all the dissertation explores the operational performances of patrol aircraft and submarine, and features of main ASW searching means, and analyzes decision-making process of ASW, It is suggested that the searching process can be divided into two levels: the first level for choosing the searching plans among the combination between sonobuoy, magnetic anomaly detection (MAD), radar, infrared detector, and Electronic Support Measures (ESM); the second level for choosing the sonobuoy deployment patterns involved in searching plans. In accordance with the search decision-making process, the major functions and frameworks of OCDAS is proposed.
In accordance with the target information obtained before call search ASW and patrol search ASW tasks, and taking notice of oversimplification and unreasonableness in present search effectiveness evaluation models, the dissertation makes a study of principles of submarine initial position diffusion and motion diffusion, and derives the corresponding models. On the basis of submarine diffusion principles, the search effectiveness evaluation models are investigated, the results can be used for search decision-making.
Based on the basic ASW modes and the acting range forecast of searching means in the different combat environments, the dissertation makes a study of the searching effectiveness and establishes the evaluation models in the situation of regular searching patterns and random searching pattern using sonobuoy, MAD, radar and infrared detector.
In consideration of the fuzzy factors influencing the first level decision-making, the fuzzy decision theory is adapted to set up the model for choosing the searching equipment combination in terms of search efficiency, stealth, maneuverability and economical efficiency. The sonobuoy consumption influence is deliberately added to weight factor consideration. Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), the changeable fuzzy set vector with consumptive equipment storage factor is introduced to calculate the fuzzy distance between optional plans and the ideal one, so as to evaluate the degree of approximation. The priority searching plan models with regard to difference submarine navigation status, therefore, are established.
Considering the inputs and outputs of various searching patterns with sonobuoys are able to obtain beforehand in the first level searching plan, and in order to reduce the subjectivity by human in the weight allocation with the method of the fuzzy decision, the dissertation adopts the data envelopment analysis (DEA) theory to choose the second level searching plan for more objectiveness. In according to the operational feature of sonobuoys, the DEA evaluation object and criterion are brought forward, and the priority searching pattern is chosen based on comparing the relative effectiveness of different searching patters. Because the outputs from searching system are denoted in the way of probability, and the boundary effect is obvious, the dissertation puts forward the method of using decision-maker's preference to correct the probability outputs and formulates sonobuoy pattern selecting models based on the decision-maker's preference, making the evaluation results more objective while taking the decision-maker's subjective wills into consideration.
All the effectiveness evaluation and decision models mentioned in the dissertation have been derived strictly and passed through simulation validation. The simulation results about typical situations indicate that the models are reasonable and conclusions are feasible for application to the ASW search plan assistance system.
The dissertation makes a theoretical study on ASW OCDAS by means of modern decision theory for the first time in the domestic community of ASW and bears great academic significance. The achievements are of great value to developing ASW patrol aircraft and have remarkable military benefits.
由于飞机和潜艇处于不同的介质,潜艇具有很强的隐蔽性,反潜巡逻飞机在作战中的大部分时间都是用于对潜艇的搜索,对潜搜索方案的优化和决策是反潜作战指挥辅助决策系统最重要的功能。因此,论文以反潜指挥控制系统中的搜潜方案辅助决策为对象,分析现代航空反潜作战特点和搜索决策过程,研究航空搜潜辅助决策系统必须具备的主要功能和基本框架;研究潜艇位置的散布规律,推导出各种搜潜手段的搜索效能。最后,运用现代决策系统理论,建立适用于反潜作战中搜索方案优化决策的数学模型,并对模型进行仿真验证。
论文首先研究了潜艇的使用特点、反潜巡逻飞机的特点、几种主要的航空搜潜手段及其特点,分析了航空反潜作战中指挥员的决策过程,将搜潜方案决策分为两级,即在声纳浮标、磁探仪、雷达、红外搜索仪和电子监测系统等不同手段及其组合中选择搜索手段,即一级搜索方案的决策;然后,针对反潜巡逻飞机以声纳浮标为主要搜索手段的运用方式和声纳浮标布阵使用的特点,以取得最大搜索效能为出发点,研究如何确定声纳浮标的搜索方案和选择布阵图形,即二级搜索方案的决策。按照搜潜方案决策过程,进而确定了反潜作战指挥辅助决策系统的主要功能,提出了反潜作战指挥辅助决策系统的基本框架。
根据反潜巡逻飞机在执行应召搜索和巡逻搜索任务时所拥有的目标信息,针对当前搜潜效能评估中对潜艇位置的假设存在过于简单和不甚合理的情况,研究了潜艇位置的初始散布规律和运动后的散布规律,提出了执行巡逻搜索和应召搜索任务时的潜艇初始位置和运动后的位置散布模型。在此基础上,建立了各种潜艇散布规律条件下的搜潜效能评估数学模型,为开展搜潜方案决策模型研究提供了输入参数。
研究了航空反潜搜索的基本模式以及作战环境条件变化情况下搜索手段作用距离的预报问题。在此基础上,对声纳浮标、雷达、红外搜索仪和磁探仪的应召搜索、巡逻检查搜索效能进行了研究,建立了声纳浮标搜索阵、雷达、红外搜索仪和磁探仪的规则图形搜索效能评估模型,以及雷达、红外搜索仪和磁探仪的随机搜索效能评估模型。
考虑到一级搜索方案决策中存在着一些影响决策的模糊因素,在综合搜潜效能,以及搜索隐蔽性、可操作性和经济性等因素基础上,运用模糊决策理论研究了选择不同搜索手段及其组合对潜艇搜索的一级搜索方案优化决策数学模型,特别是增加了声纳浮标逐渐消耗对因素权重影响的研究,引入了与消耗品存有量有关的、基于层次分析法(AHP)的可变因素模糊集向量,并通过计算备选方案与理想方案之间的模糊距离,来衡量所选择的方案接近理想方案的程度,建立了针对不同状态潜艇的搜索行动方案优选模型。
针对一级搜索方案选择带有声纳浮标的方案,而各种搜索阵型的输入和输出可以事前分析得到的情况,为减少因采用模糊决策方法带来的人为权重分配的主观性,论文运用更加客观的数据包络分析法(DEA)选择二级搜索方案。在根据声纳浮标使用特点的基础上,构建了DEA的评价对象和指标,通过分析比较多种搜索阵形的相对有效性来选择最佳搜索图形,特别是针对搜索系统输出指标用概率值表征、边际效应明显的情况,重点研究并提出了用决策者偏好修正概率型输出量的方法。在此基础上,建立了在多种声纳浮标搜索阵形中择优且带有决策者偏好的决策模型,使评价结果既具有较强的客观性,又充分尊重决策者的主观意愿。
论文给出的所有效能评估和决策数学模型,均经过严格的数学推导和计算机仿真验算。从几组典型条件下的计算结果来看,模型公式合理、结论可信,可运用于为指挥员提供反潜作战指挥搜潜方案辅助决策。
论文还对建立反潜巡逻飞机搜潜辅助决策系统的总体设计方案进行了研究。
论文首次系统地采用现代决策理论对反潜指挥决策系统进行理论研究,具有重要的学术价值,研究成果对指导反潜巡逻飞机作战指挥辅助决策系统研制和开展航空反潜搜索效能评估研究均具有重要的参考价值。
With the development of submarine in the tendency towards high speed, deep diving, and low noise, antisubmarine warfare (ASW) is becoming more difficult and complicated. Compared with other ASW forces such as ASW submarine, ASW surface vessel and ASW helicopter, ASW patrol aircraft that has feature of rapid respond, long voyage and endurance, can be equipped with various search equipment and attacking weapons. With the advantage of invulnerability by submarine attack, ASW aircraft has become one of armaments, so many navy powers are competing to develop it. There are so many choices of searching and attacking submarine means and all the uncertainties existed in ASW, commanders cannot afford to cope with the ASW tasks merely depending on their experience. How to apply the computer technology and modern decision theory to build up the Operational Command and Decision Assistance System(OCDAS), Which can assist them to provide the operational plans for commanders and exert operational efficiency of antisubmarine aircraft maximally, is a significant field in developing modern antisubmarine patrol aircraft.
Both the vehicles operate in different environmental media from aircraft, and also submarine is of stealthy, so antisubmarine aircraft has to spend most of time to search it. The most important function of OCDAS is to optimize the search plans. The dissertation therefore focuses on OCDAS to research and establish the mathematical models of optimized searching plan.
First of all the dissertation explores the operational performances of patrol aircraft and submarine, and features of main ASW searching means, and analyzes decision-making process of ASW, It is suggested that the searching process can be divided into two levels: the first level for choosing the searching plans among the combination between sonobuoy, magnetic anomaly detection (MAD), radar, infrared detector, and Electronic Support Measures (ESM); the second level for choosing the sonobuoy deployment patterns involved in searching plans. In accordance with the search decision-making process, the major functions and frameworks of OCDAS is proposed.
In accordance with the target information obtained before call search ASW and patrol search ASW tasks, and taking notice of oversimplification and unreasonableness in present search effectiveness evaluation models, the dissertation makes a study of principles of submarine initial position diffusion and motion diffusion, and derives the corresponding models. On the basis of submarine diffusion principles, the search effectiveness evaluation models are investigated, the results can be used for search decision-making.
Based on the basic ASW modes and the acting range forecast of searching means in the different combat environments, the dissertation makes a study of the searching effectiveness and establishes the evaluation models in the situation of regular searching patterns and random searching pattern using sonobuoy, MAD, radar and infrared detector.
In consideration of the fuzzy factors influencing the first level decision-making, the fuzzy decision theory is adapted to set up the model for choosing the searching equipment combination in terms of search efficiency, stealth, maneuverability and economical efficiency. The sonobuoy consumption influence is deliberately added to weight factor consideration. Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), the changeable fuzzy set vector with consumptive equipment storage factor is introduced to calculate the fuzzy distance between optional plans and the ideal one, so as to evaluate the degree of approximation. The priority searching plan models with regard to difference submarine navigation status, therefore, are established.
Considering the inputs and outputs of various searching patterns with sonobuoys are able to obtain beforehand in the first level searching plan, and in order to reduce the subjectivity by human in the weight allocation with the method of the fuzzy decision, the dissertation adopts the data envelopment analysis (DEA) theory to choose the second level searching plan for more objectiveness. In according to the operational feature of sonobuoys, the DEA evaluation object and criterion are brought forward, and the priority searching pattern is chosen based on comparing the relative effectiveness of different searching patters. Because the outputs from searching system are denoted in the way of probability, and the boundary effect is obvious, the dissertation puts forward the method of using decision-maker's preference to correct the probability outputs and formulates sonobuoy pattern selecting models based on the decision-maker's preference, making the evaluation results more objective while taking the decision-maker's subjective wills into consideration.
All the effectiveness evaluation and decision models mentioned in the dissertation have been derived strictly and passed through simulation validation. The simulation results about typical situations indicate that the models are reasonable and conclusions are feasible for application to the ASW search plan assistance system.
The dissertation makes a theoretical study on ASW OCDAS by means of modern decision theory for the first time in the domestic community of ASW and bears great academic significance. The achievements are of great value to developing ASW patrol aircraft and have remarkable military benefits.
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