汇率、劳动力市场制度与劳动力市场调整
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摘要
2008年美国金融危机通过各种渠道迅速传递到世界其他经济体表明，经济全球化加剧了开放经济体的外部冲击风险。作为外部冲击重要组成部分的汇率冲击，在这次危机过程中对各国劳动力市场产生了重要影响，这种影响固然与一国汇率制度选择有关，但劳动力市场面对汇率冲击的调整能力和调整过程，具有更为重要的作用。而劳动力市场在汇率等外部冲击下的调整能力和调整过程，很可能与劳动力市场自身的制度安排具有密切联系，本论文认为劳动力市场制度是决定劳动力市场应对汇率冲击所进行的调整和调整后的均衡状态的重要因素。
经验研究显示，汇率冲击和其他外部冲击一起，带来工业化国家工业部门就业比例持续下降和非熟练劳动力失业率的不断攀升的现象，中国工业部门就业也出现了类似的情况。我国在经济发展和对外开放的过程中，汇率制度的弹性逐步增加，由原先较为僵化的钉住汇率制度向浮动汇率制度迈进，将不可避免影响到我国进出口贸易条件，冲击先前依赖于低廉劳动力资源的出口模式，并对劳动力市场产生重要影响，带来就业、工资等均衡变量和市场结构的变动。与此同时，积极的劳动力市场政策对推进中国的劳动力市场制度变迁起到了重要作用，中国的劳动力市场制度取向经历了从“绝对强调工作安全”到“综合考量市场灵活化、就业安全与工作安全平衡”的调整。这一过程中不断建立和完善的就业安全相关的制度法规对企业雇佣和解雇工人的行为产生了成本约束，导致了就业调整的制度成本产生。
本文的研究视角是劳动力市场存在制度因素导致的调整成本时，分析汇率影响就业、工资及技能溢价的作用机制，同时运用中国工业行业数据对汇率和劳动力调整成本对我国就业和工资的影响渠道和具体程度进行计量分析。
本文共分六章。第一章为导论，介绍本文研究的背景和意义，对核心概念进行界定，阐述研究思路、结构安排和主要创新之处。第二章在对已有相关理论进行整理和归纳的基础上，从三方面对汇率和劳动力市场制度影响就业和工资的理论机制进行了梳理。第三章主要从发展概况层面，运用中国的宏观经济数据对我国汇率、劳动力市场制度以及就业、工资的发展变化状况进行了较为细致的分析，同时考察OECD国家的汇率、就业保护和就业及工资的关系，从横向对比的角度，判断中国劳动力市场制度对劳动力市场保护与OECD国家成熟的灵活—安全的劳动力市场模式存在的差距。第四章从理论上系统分析了汇率和劳动力市场制度对就业的影响。理论研究得出的主要结论是，劳动力市场调整成本的提高降低了就业的汇率弹性，经济开放度的加深提高了就业汇率弹性，生产效率的提高降低了就业的汇率弹性，汇率持久性提高提升了就业汇率弹性。第五章运用我国可贸易工业行业1998-2009年间的统计数据，分析了汇率、劳动力市场制度对我国工业行业就业、工资及工资溢价的影响。第六章为论文主要结论和相关政策建议。
本文的理论和经验分析得出如下主要结论。第一，我国的就业和工资水平与实际有效汇率呈正相关关系，劳动力市场化指数作为劳动力调整成本的代理变量促进了就业和工资提高。第二，汇率贬值通过内资企业出口渠道促进了就业增长、提高了就业创造率并降低了工资水平；通过进口渠道降低了就业和就业破坏率，提高了工资水平；通过效率渠道促进了就业增长、提高了就业再配置率、就业创造率和就业破坏率，降低了工资水平。在影响弹性因素中，资本劳动比例效应最小，行业平均加成比例居中，劳动力的技术结构最大。第三，劳动力市场调整成本降低了就业汇率弹性和就业再配置的汇率弹性，汇率波动程度越高对就业的负面影响越大，劳动力调整成本通过就业流动渠道对就业汇率弹性的影响为负。采用Differences-in-differences方法估算出劳动市场调整成本对低劳动生产率行业的就业汇率弹性大于高劳动生产率行业。劳动力市场调整成本影响了就业面对实际有效汇率冲击时的调整过程，它不仅直接减少就业和限制就业流动，而且通过就业流动和行业劳动生产率影响就业汇率弹性。第四，劳动力市场调整成本具有降低熟练劳动与非熟练劳动技能溢价的效应，劳动力市场调整成本对熟练劳动力相对于非熟练劳动的工资有负向影响，实际汇率则促进了技能溢价的提升。
本文的创新之处主要体现在以下几个方面：第一，在理论分析中，突破前人研究中的劳动力市场平滑假设，将劳动力市场制度导致的调整成本因素纳入理论考察，将新贸易理论框架和劳动力市场制度因素相结合构建理论模型，深入研究了汇率和劳动力市场调整成本影响就业及工资的理论机制，指出劳动力市场调整成本降低了就业汇率弹性，缩小了就业和工资波动的幅度，使得就业、工资的波动更为平缓。本文理论研究推进了前人的理论框架，并为本文后续经验研究奠定了坚实的基础。
第二，实证分析方面，在本文理论研究的指导之下，运用倍差法、动态面板估计等前沿计量研究方法，系统深入地定量分析了实际有效汇率、劳动力市场制度对我国工业行业就业以及工资的影响，实证分析从就业和实际工资（工资溢价）两个层面展开，重点研究了劳动力市场制度所带来的调整成本对就业和工资面对汇率波动的调整的作用，并与劳动力市场平滑假定下实际有效汇率影响就业和工资的渠道和效应进行比较分析。本文的实证研究在视角上、理论基础上、方法上、结论上均推进和丰富了本领域已有的实证研究文献。
第三，本文首次构建了中国各行业的劳动力市场灵活性的指标，以及我国各行业的实际有效汇率指标，在指标构建方面做出了具有一定开创性的工作，不仅深化和细化了本文的研究，也为其他本领域学者的相关研究提供了借鉴和参考。
Economy globalizaition intensifies riskes of external shocks of open economies,in2008, the financial crisis transfers to others economies through various channelsrapidly. Exchange rate volitily is one of the most important shocks, whocarriesimportant impacts on global labour market. The impacts are related to exchange ratesystem, however, the capacity of labour market responding to exchange rate shockand labour market adjustment play important roles which may be closely related tolabour market system or institution. This dissertation believes labour market systemor institution is an important factor determining the labour market response toexchange rate shocks and equilibrium after adjustment.
Empirical studies have shown that exchange rate shocks together with othershocks results in the steady decline in employment rate of developed countries andthe persistly increase in unemployment rate of unskill labours. The manufateringsectors are the case. In addition, the flexibility of exchange rate system itself isgradually increasing and on the road to floating system, which therefore inevitableinfluences the condition of international trade and exerts volatility effect onequilibrium variables such as employment and wage and market structure as forexport pattern depending on cheap and abundant labour. On the same time, activelabour market policies play important role in advancing labour market system, labourmarket system of Chinese mainly carries out active labour market policies andexperiences adjustment from focuses on “absolutely employment safety” to“comprehensive consideration of the flexibility of labour market, employmentsafety and the banlace of work safety”. Policies and regulations related toemployment safety put cost constraints on behaviors of hiring and firing, incurredadditional system costconstraint on employment adjustment.
The main goal of our paper is to explore the mechanism of impact of exchangerate on employment, wage and skill premium, and then use manufacturing sectorsdata to conduct the empirical analysis of the impact of exchange rage and labour adjustment cost on employment and wage under the labour adjustment cost.
The whole paper includes six chapters. In chapter1, the introduction brieflydiscusses the backgrounds, main concepts, the research idea, structure, and maininnovation. In chapter2, we document the literature involved employment andexchange rate, and present theoretically the mechanism of impact of exchange rateshocks on employment and the relation between this impact and labour marketregulations from three strands of the literature on international trade. In chapter3, weuse china macroeconomy data to conduct a detailed analysis of the current situationof exchange rate, labour market institution, wage and employment, and then study theabove factor of OECD countries which try to judge the gap between china labourmarket institution related to employment protection and the mature flex-safe labourmarket pattern. In chapter4we analysis the impact of exchange rate and labourmarket institution on employment and wage theoretically, and the main conclusion islabour market institution in form of labour adjustment cost decreases the elasticity ofemployment to exchange rate, exposure to world economy conversely increase theelasticity of employment to exchange rate, an increase in exchange rate persistenceincreases the reaction of labour demand to exchange rate movements as well as anincrease in labour productivity lowing the elasticity of employment to exchange rate.In chapter5, we use china manufacturing sector data for1998-2009and analysis theimpact of exchange rate and labour market insititution on employment, wage and skillpremium,. The chapter6presents the conclusion and policies complication.
Through empirical and theretical analysis, we get the conclusion as follows: firstly,employment and wage are positively correlated to effective exchange rate, the indexof labour marketlization is proxied of labour adjustment cost and promotesemployment an wage in manufacturing sectors. Secondly, devaluation of effectiveexchange rate increases employment and employment creation rate through exportchannel of domestic firms, decreases wage level, results in decline in employmentand employment destroy rate through import channel, and increases employment,employment reallocation rate, employment creation rate and employment destroy ratethrough effective channel. Of all determints of the elasticity of employment toeffective exchange rate, the ratio of capital to labour plays a small role, the average markup is the second most important determinant, and the structure of labourcontributes to the elasticity of employment to effective exchange rate mostly. Thirdly,labour adjustment cost decreases the elasticity of employment to effective exchangerate and the elasticity of employment reallocation to effective exchange rate. Thegreater volatility of effective exchange rate leads to large negative impact onemployment. Labour adjustment cost exerts negative effect on the elasticity ofemployment to effective exchange rate through job flow channel. We also adoptDifferences–in-differences method to show labour adjustment cost has a great impacton the elasticity of employment to effective exchange rate of sectors with lowerlabour productivity than than with higher labour productivity. In one word, labourmarket cost influences the employment adjustment in case of exchange rate shocks. Itnot only reduces employment and constraint job flow, but also affects the elasticity ofemployment to effective exchange rate through job flow. Fourthly, labour adjustmentcost has negative impact on skill premium, between skill workers and unskill workers,and the corresponding labour market regulation put legal constraint on skill workers.The effective exchange rate widens skill premium,.
Thecontributions on theoretical and empirical studies embody such aspects:firstly, on theoretical analysis side, I extend the assumptions of smoothy labourmarket in the previous studies, embody the adjustment cost incurred by labour marketinstitution in the theoretical analysis, and design my theoretical model combined Newtrade theory and labour market institution or system to discuss the theoreticalmechanism of exchange rate and adjustment cost of labour market exerting effect onemployment and wage.The theoretical model shows adjustment cost of labour marketdecreases elasticity of employment to exchange rate and narrow the fluctuation ofemployment and wage reacting to exchange rate volatility, which makes employmentand wage fluctuate gently. My theoretical study advances previous theoreticalframework and therefore laid a sound foundation for subsequent empirical analysis.
Secondly, on the empirical analysis side, under the guidance of the presenttheory, I use differences-in-differences method and dynamic panel to makequantitative analysis of the impact of real effective exchange rate and labour marketinstitution on employment and wage at industry level. The empirical analysis conducts from two aspects: employment and wage(skill premium) and focuses on theeffect of adjustment cost incurred by labour market institution on employmentadjustment and wage adjustment reacting to exchange rate volatility and makes acompatative analysis of the channels and impact of real effective exchange rateaffecting employment and wage under the assumption of smoothy labour market. Myempirical study advances and enriches the existing empirical literature in this fieldfrom the perspective side, theoretical basis side, estimation method side andconclusions side.
Thirdly, I construct indicators of labour market flexibility specified by Chinaindustries as well as indicators of the real effective exchange rate specified by Chinaindustries. I make some constributions to indicator system and further my study, aswell as provide a useful reference for others scholars in this filed.
经验研究显示，汇率冲击和其他外部冲击一起，带来工业化国家工业部门就业比例持续下降和非熟练劳动力失业率的不断攀升的现象，中国工业部门就业也出现了类似的情况。我国在经济发展和对外开放的过程中，汇率制度的弹性逐步增加，由原先较为僵化的钉住汇率制度向浮动汇率制度迈进，将不可避免影响到我国进出口贸易条件，冲击先前依赖于低廉劳动力资源的出口模式，并对劳动力市场产生重要影响，带来就业、工资等均衡变量和市场结构的变动。与此同时，积极的劳动力市场政策对推进中国的劳动力市场制度变迁起到了重要作用，中国的劳动力市场制度取向经历了从“绝对强调工作安全”到“综合考量市场灵活化、就业安全与工作安全平衡”的调整。这一过程中不断建立和完善的就业安全相关的制度法规对企业雇佣和解雇工人的行为产生了成本约束，导致了就业调整的制度成本产生。
本文的研究视角是劳动力市场存在制度因素导致的调整成本时，分析汇率影响就业、工资及技能溢价的作用机制，同时运用中国工业行业数据对汇率和劳动力调整成本对我国就业和工资的影响渠道和具体程度进行计量分析。
本文共分六章。第一章为导论，介绍本文研究的背景和意义，对核心概念进行界定，阐述研究思路、结构安排和主要创新之处。第二章在对已有相关理论进行整理和归纳的基础上，从三方面对汇率和劳动力市场制度影响就业和工资的理论机制进行了梳理。第三章主要从发展概况层面，运用中国的宏观经济数据对我国汇率、劳动力市场制度以及就业、工资的发展变化状况进行了较为细致的分析，同时考察OECD国家的汇率、就业保护和就业及工资的关系，从横向对比的角度，判断中国劳动力市场制度对劳动力市场保护与OECD国家成熟的灵活—安全的劳动力市场模式存在的差距。第四章从理论上系统分析了汇率和劳动力市场制度对就业的影响。理论研究得出的主要结论是，劳动力市场调整成本的提高降低了就业的汇率弹性，经济开放度的加深提高了就业汇率弹性，生产效率的提高降低了就业的汇率弹性，汇率持久性提高提升了就业汇率弹性。第五章运用我国可贸易工业行业1998-2009年间的统计数据，分析了汇率、劳动力市场制度对我国工业行业就业、工资及工资溢价的影响。第六章为论文主要结论和相关政策建议。
本文的理论和经验分析得出如下主要结论。第一，我国的就业和工资水平与实际有效汇率呈正相关关系，劳动力市场化指数作为劳动力调整成本的代理变量促进了就业和工资提高。第二，汇率贬值通过内资企业出口渠道促进了就业增长、提高了就业创造率并降低了工资水平；通过进口渠道降低了就业和就业破坏率，提高了工资水平；通过效率渠道促进了就业增长、提高了就业再配置率、就业创造率和就业破坏率，降低了工资水平。在影响弹性因素中，资本劳动比例效应最小，行业平均加成比例居中，劳动力的技术结构最大。第三，劳动力市场调整成本降低了就业汇率弹性和就业再配置的汇率弹性，汇率波动程度越高对就业的负面影响越大，劳动力调整成本通过就业流动渠道对就业汇率弹性的影响为负。采用Differences-in-differences方法估算出劳动市场调整成本对低劳动生产率行业的就业汇率弹性大于高劳动生产率行业。劳动力市场调整成本影响了就业面对实际有效汇率冲击时的调整过程，它不仅直接减少就业和限制就业流动，而且通过就业流动和行业劳动生产率影响就业汇率弹性。第四，劳动力市场调整成本具有降低熟练劳动与非熟练劳动技能溢价的效应，劳动力市场调整成本对熟练劳动力相对于非熟练劳动的工资有负向影响，实际汇率则促进了技能溢价的提升。
本文的创新之处主要体现在以下几个方面：第一，在理论分析中，突破前人研究中的劳动力市场平滑假设，将劳动力市场制度导致的调整成本因素纳入理论考察，将新贸易理论框架和劳动力市场制度因素相结合构建理论模型，深入研究了汇率和劳动力市场调整成本影响就业及工资的理论机制，指出劳动力市场调整成本降低了就业汇率弹性，缩小了就业和工资波动的幅度，使得就业、工资的波动更为平缓。本文理论研究推进了前人的理论框架，并为本文后续经验研究奠定了坚实的基础。
第二，实证分析方面，在本文理论研究的指导之下，运用倍差法、动态面板估计等前沿计量研究方法，系统深入地定量分析了实际有效汇率、劳动力市场制度对我国工业行业就业以及工资的影响，实证分析从就业和实际工资（工资溢价）两个层面展开，重点研究了劳动力市场制度所带来的调整成本对就业和工资面对汇率波动的调整的作用，并与劳动力市场平滑假定下实际有效汇率影响就业和工资的渠道和效应进行比较分析。本文的实证研究在视角上、理论基础上、方法上、结论上均推进和丰富了本领域已有的实证研究文献。
第三，本文首次构建了中国各行业的劳动力市场灵活性的指标，以及我国各行业的实际有效汇率指标，在指标构建方面做出了具有一定开创性的工作，不仅深化和细化了本文的研究，也为其他本领域学者的相关研究提供了借鉴和参考。
Economy globalizaition intensifies riskes of external shocks of open economies,in2008, the financial crisis transfers to others economies through various channelsrapidly. Exchange rate volitily is one of the most important shocks, whocarriesimportant impacts on global labour market. The impacts are related to exchange ratesystem, however, the capacity of labour market responding to exchange rate shockand labour market adjustment play important roles which may be closely related tolabour market system or institution. This dissertation believes labour market systemor institution is an important factor determining the labour market response toexchange rate shocks and equilibrium after adjustment.
Empirical studies have shown that exchange rate shocks together with othershocks results in the steady decline in employment rate of developed countries andthe persistly increase in unemployment rate of unskill labours. The manufateringsectors are the case. In addition, the flexibility of exchange rate system itself isgradually increasing and on the road to floating system, which therefore inevitableinfluences the condition of international trade and exerts volatility effect onequilibrium variables such as employment and wage and market structure as forexport pattern depending on cheap and abundant labour. On the same time, activelabour market policies play important role in advancing labour market system, labourmarket system of Chinese mainly carries out active labour market policies andexperiences adjustment from focuses on “absolutely employment safety” to“comprehensive consideration of the flexibility of labour market, employmentsafety and the banlace of work safety”. Policies and regulations related toemployment safety put cost constraints on behaviors of hiring and firing, incurredadditional system costconstraint on employment adjustment.
The main goal of our paper is to explore the mechanism of impact of exchangerate on employment, wage and skill premium, and then use manufacturing sectorsdata to conduct the empirical analysis of the impact of exchange rage and labour adjustment cost on employment and wage under the labour adjustment cost.
The whole paper includes six chapters. In chapter1, the introduction brieflydiscusses the backgrounds, main concepts, the research idea, structure, and maininnovation. In chapter2, we document the literature involved employment andexchange rate, and present theoretically the mechanism of impact of exchange rateshocks on employment and the relation between this impact and labour marketregulations from three strands of the literature on international trade. In chapter3, weuse china macroeconomy data to conduct a detailed analysis of the current situationof exchange rate, labour market institution, wage and employment, and then study theabove factor of OECD countries which try to judge the gap between china labourmarket institution related to employment protection and the mature flex-safe labourmarket pattern. In chapter4we analysis the impact of exchange rate and labourmarket institution on employment and wage theoretically, and the main conclusion islabour market institution in form of labour adjustment cost decreases the elasticity ofemployment to exchange rate, exposure to world economy conversely increase theelasticity of employment to exchange rate, an increase in exchange rate persistenceincreases the reaction of labour demand to exchange rate movements as well as anincrease in labour productivity lowing the elasticity of employment to exchange rate.In chapter5, we use china manufacturing sector data for1998-2009and analysis theimpact of exchange rate and labour market insititution on employment, wage and skillpremium,. The chapter6presents the conclusion and policies complication.
Through empirical and theretical analysis, we get the conclusion as follows: firstly,employment and wage are positively correlated to effective exchange rate, the indexof labour marketlization is proxied of labour adjustment cost and promotesemployment an wage in manufacturing sectors. Secondly, devaluation of effectiveexchange rate increases employment and employment creation rate through exportchannel of domestic firms, decreases wage level, results in decline in employmentand employment destroy rate through import channel, and increases employment,employment reallocation rate, employment creation rate and employment destroy ratethrough effective channel. Of all determints of the elasticity of employment toeffective exchange rate, the ratio of capital to labour plays a small role, the average markup is the second most important determinant, and the structure of labourcontributes to the elasticity of employment to effective exchange rate mostly. Thirdly,labour adjustment cost decreases the elasticity of employment to effective exchangerate and the elasticity of employment reallocation to effective exchange rate. Thegreater volatility of effective exchange rate leads to large negative impact onemployment. Labour adjustment cost exerts negative effect on the elasticity ofemployment to effective exchange rate through job flow channel. We also adoptDifferences–in-differences method to show labour adjustment cost has a great impacton the elasticity of employment to effective exchange rate of sectors with lowerlabour productivity than than with higher labour productivity. In one word, labourmarket cost influences the employment adjustment in case of exchange rate shocks. Itnot only reduces employment and constraint job flow, but also affects the elasticity ofemployment to effective exchange rate through job flow. Fourthly, labour adjustmentcost has negative impact on skill premium, between skill workers and unskill workers,and the corresponding labour market regulation put legal constraint on skill workers.The effective exchange rate widens skill premium,.
Thecontributions on theoretical and empirical studies embody such aspects:firstly, on theoretical analysis side, I extend the assumptions of smoothy labourmarket in the previous studies, embody the adjustment cost incurred by labour marketinstitution in the theoretical analysis, and design my theoretical model combined Newtrade theory and labour market institution or system to discuss the theoreticalmechanism of exchange rate and adjustment cost of labour market exerting effect onemployment and wage.The theoretical model shows adjustment cost of labour marketdecreases elasticity of employment to exchange rate and narrow the fluctuation ofemployment and wage reacting to exchange rate volatility, which makes employmentand wage fluctuate gently. My theoretical study advances previous theoreticalframework and therefore laid a sound foundation for subsequent empirical analysis.
Secondly, on the empirical analysis side, under the guidance of the presenttheory, I use differences-in-differences method and dynamic panel to makequantitative analysis of the impact of real effective exchange rate and labour marketinstitution on employment and wage at industry level. The empirical analysis conducts from two aspects: employment and wage(skill premium) and focuses on theeffect of adjustment cost incurred by labour market institution on employmentadjustment and wage adjustment reacting to exchange rate volatility and makes acompatative analysis of the channels and impact of real effective exchange rateaffecting employment and wage under the assumption of smoothy labour market. Myempirical study advances and enriches the existing empirical literature in this fieldfrom the perspective side, theoretical basis side, estimation method side andconclusions side.
Thirdly, I construct indicators of labour market flexibility specified by Chinaindustries as well as indicators of the real effective exchange rate specified by Chinaindustries. I make some constributions to indicator system and further my study, aswell as provide a useful reference for others scholars in this filed.
引文
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