考虑因果关系的连锁故障模型及其分析方法研究
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摘要
由于电网规模的扩大,由局部原因诱发电力系统连锁故障造成严重影响的情况时有发生,开展连锁故障的研究十分必要。本文根据连锁故障的特点从故障后的潮流转移出发,定义了线路的分布因子,它可以定量描述连锁故障发生时各线路之间的因果关系。本文研究了基于线路分布因子并考虑随机因素的连锁故障搜索方法,提出了连锁故障的搜索策略和具体流程。为了保证搜索到的连锁故障路径是可能发生的,在搜索过程中运用概率优先排序对故障线路进行筛选。根据大停电事故中,连锁跳闸首先发生在输电断面内部的特点,提出关键输电断面的定义,并结合线路的分布因子,提出了基于因果关系的关键输电断面的搜索方法,并建立了基于Delphi和BPA的搜索模拟平台。运用新英格兰10机39节点系统进行连锁故障发展路径和关键输电断面搜索仿真,仿真结果验证了本文方法的可行性和有效性。
As the enlargement of power system,the cascading outrage caused by local failure leads to serious impact.So it becomes more and more necessary to study the cascading failure. Line distribution factor is defined in this paper according to power flow transfer after the fault of line.It can express the causal relation among lines and can be used to calculate power flow.In this paper it studies the search method of cascading outage based on lines' distribution factors.In order to ensure the probability of cascading failure' path,it screen the lines based on the probability of prioritization in the process of searching.It also define the key transmission section and study the search method of key transmission section.The system of New England 10-unit 39-bus is used to simulate the cascading outage paths and the key transmission sections of power system.The results indicate that the proposed method can find the cascading outage paths and key transmission sections.
As the enlargement of power system,the cascading outrage caused by local failure leads to serious impact.So it becomes more and more necessary to study the cascading failure. Line distribution factor is defined in this paper according to power flow transfer after the fault of line.It can express the causal relation among lines and can be used to calculate power flow.In this paper it studies the search method of cascading outage based on lines' distribution factors.In order to ensure the probability of cascading failure' path,it screen the lines based on the probability of prioritization in the process of searching.It also define the key transmission section and study the search method of key transmission section.The system of New England 10-unit 39-bus is used to simulate the cascading outage paths and the key transmission sections of power system.The results indicate that the proposed method can find the cascading outage paths and key transmission sections.
引文
[1]张宝会.电网继电保护与安全稳定紧急控制系统面临的问题与需要开展的研究.全国高等学校电力系统及其自动化专业第十九届学术年会论文集,815-820.
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[3]U.S.-Canada power system outage task force.Final report on the August 14,2003blackout in the United States and Canada:causes and recommendations[EB/OL].http://www.nerc.com/.
[4]徐伟华,艾芊,周玉光,等.莫斯科5·25大停电对中国电力市场发展的启示[J].华东电力,2005,33(7):45-48.
[5]本刊编辑.2006年世界各地停电事故[J].水利电力科技,2006,32(4):46-48.
[6]唐斯庆,张弥,李建设,等.海南电网“9·26”大面积停电事故的分析与总结[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(1):1-7,16.
[7]Haidiman R C,Kumbale M,Makarov Y V.Multi-Scenario cascading failure analysis using TRELSS[C].CIGRE/IEEE PES International Symposium on Quality and Security of Electric Power Delivery Systems,Montreal,Canada,2003:176-180.
[8]曾德文.全国联网安全稳定及其相互影响研究[J].中国电力,2001,34(11):28-33.
[9]陈德树.大电网安全保护技术初探[J].电网技术,2004,28(9):14-17,27.
[10]王梅义.电网继电保护应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1999.
[11]杨卫东,徐政,韩祯祥.电力系统灾变防治研究中的一些问题[J].电力系统自动化,24(6):7-12.
[12]鲁宗相.电网复杂性及大停电事故的可靠性研究[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(12):93-97.
[13]周晶,张毅威,闵勇.电力系统连锁反应事故机理的初步研究[J].现代电力,2006,23(4):1-5.
[14]别朝红,王锡凡.复杂电力系统一类连锁反应事故可靠性评估模型和算法.电力系统自动化,Oct25,2001:30-34.
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[20]李蓉蓉,张晔,江全元.复杂电力系统连锁故障的风险评估[J].电网技术,2006,30(10):18-23
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[22]Tanrounglak S,Horowitz S H,Phadke A G;et al.Anatomy of power system:preventive relaying strategies[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,1996,11(2):708-714.
[23]Phadke A G,Thorp J S.Expose Hidden Failures to Prevent Cascading Outages[J].IEEE Computer Application in Power,1996,9(3):20-23.
[24]王明俊.大电网继电自动装置的隐藏故障、脆弱性和适应性问题[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25(3):1-5.
[25]Yu X B,Singh C.Power system reliability analysis considering protection failures[C].IEEE PES Summer Meeting,Chicago,USA,2002,2:963-968.
[26]Koeunyi B,Thorp J S.An importance sampling application:179 bus WSCC system under voltage based hidden failures and relay misoperations[C].Proceedings of the Thirty-First Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Hawaii,1998,3:39-46.
[27]Wang H,Thorp J S.Optimal locations for protection system enhancement:a simulation of cascading outages[J].IEEE Transactions on power systems,2001,16(4):528-533.
[28]Rios M A,Kirschen D S,Jayaweera D,et al.Value of security:modeling tine-dependent phenomena and whether conditions[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2002,17(3):543-548.
[29]李生虎,丁明,王敏,等.考虑故障不确定性和保护动作性能的电网连锁故障模式搜索[J].电网技术,2004,28(13):27-31,44.
[30]李景平,刘军海.复杂科学的研究对象:非线性复杂系统[J].系统辩证学学报,2005,13(3):60-65.
[31]Carreras B A,Newman D E,Dobson I,et al.Evidence for self-organized criticality in electric power system blackouts[C].Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2001.
[32]Chen J,Thorp J S,Dobson I.Cascading dynamics and mitigation assessment in power system disturbances via a hidden failure model[J].International Journal Electrical Power and Energy Systems,2005,27(4):318-326.
[33]梅可玉.论自组织临界性与复杂系统的演化行为[J].系统辩证学学报,2004,12(4): 38-41.
[34]Carreras B A,Lynch V E,Dobson I,et al.Complex dynamics of blackouts in power transmission systems[J].Chaos,2004,14(3):641-652.
[35]Dobson I,Carreras B A,Lynch V E,et al.Estimating failure propagation in models of cascading blackouts[C].8th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems,Ames,USA,2004:641-646.
[36]Dobson I,Carreras B A,Newman D E.A probabilistic loading dependent model of cascading failure and possible implications for blackouts[C].Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2003.
[37]Dobson I,Chen J,Carreras B A,et al.Examining criticality of blackouts in power system models with cascading events[C].Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2002.
[38]Dobson I,Carreras B A,Newman D E.A branching process approximation to cascading load-dependent system failure[C].35th Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2004.
[39]Dobson I,Carreras B A,Newman D E.A criticality approach to monitoring cascading failure risk and failure propagation in transmission systems[C].Conference at Carnegie Mellon University,Pittsburgh,USA,2004.
[40]易俊,周孝信.考虑系统频率特性以及保护隐藏故障的电网连锁故障模型[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(14):1-5.
[41]曹欣,张毅威,郭琼.电网连锁故障研究新进展[J].中国电力,2005,38(7):1-5.
[42]孟仲伟,鲁仲相,宋靖雁.中美电网的小世界拓扑模型比较分析[J].电力系统自动化,2004.28(15):21-29.
[43]Virtual round table on ten leading questions for network[J].The European Physical Journal B,2004,38(1):143-145.
[44]占勇,程浩忠,熊虎岗.电力网络连锁故障研究综述[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25(9):93-98.
[45]肖炊,郭永基,席勇健,等.一种评估大规模电力系统可靠性的新算法[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),1999,39(1):12-15.
[46]易俊,周孝信.电力系统广域保护与控制综述[J].电网技术,2006,30(8):8-12,30.
[47]张保会,周德才,姚峰,等.预防连锁过载避免大停电发生[C].电力系统及其自动化专业第二十一届学术年会论文集,南宁,2005,(3):1102-1106.
[48]王锡凡,王秀丽.实用电力系统静态安全分析[J].西安交通大学学报,1988,22(1):25-36.
[49]诸俊伟.电力系统分析[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1995.
[50]吴际舜.电力系统静态安全分析[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1985.
[51]邱关源.电路(下册)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1989.
[52]邓慧琼.电网连锁故障预测分析方法及其应用研究[D].华北电力大学博士论文,2007.
[53]印永华,郭剑波,赵建军,等.美加“8.14"大停电事故初步分析以及应吸取的教训[J].电网技术,2003,27(10):8-11.
[54]王成山,许晓菲,余贻鑫,等.基于割集功率空间上的静态电压稳定域局部可视化方法.中国电机工程学报,2004,24(9):13-18.
[55]周德才,张保会,姚峰,等.基于图论的输电断面快速搜索.中国电机工程学报,2006,26(12):32-38.
[56]姚峰,张保会,周德才,等.输电断面有功安全保护及其快速算法.中国电机工程学报,2006,26(13):31-36.
[57]李响,郭志忠.N-1静态安全潮流约束下的输电断面有功潮流控制[J].电网技术,2005,29(3):29-32.
[58]魏萍,倪以信,等.基于图论的输电线路功率组成和发电机与负荷间功率输送关系的快速分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2000,20(6):21-25.
[59]王成山,许晓菲,余贻鑫,等.基于割集功率空间上的静态电压稳定域局部可视化方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(9):13-18.
[2]何大愚.对于美国西部电力系统1996年7月2日大停电事故的初步认识[J].电网技术,1996,20(9):35-39.
[3]U.S.-Canada power system outage task force.Final report on the August 14,2003blackout in the United States and Canada:causes and recommendations[EB/OL].http://www.nerc.com/.
[4]徐伟华,艾芊,周玉光,等.莫斯科5·25大停电对中国电力市场发展的启示[J].华东电力,2005,33(7):45-48.
[5]本刊编辑.2006年世界各地停电事故[J].水利电力科技,2006,32(4):46-48.
[6]唐斯庆,张弥,李建设,等.海南电网“9·26”大面积停电事故的分析与总结[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(1):1-7,16.
[7]Haidiman R C,Kumbale M,Makarov Y V.Multi-Scenario cascading failure analysis using TRELSS[C].CIGRE/IEEE PES International Symposium on Quality and Security of Electric Power Delivery Systems,Montreal,Canada,2003:176-180.
[8]曾德文.全国联网安全稳定及其相互影响研究[J].中国电力,2001,34(11):28-33.
[9]陈德树.大电网安全保护技术初探[J].电网技术,2004,28(9):14-17,27.
[10]王梅义.电网继电保护应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1999.
[11]杨卫东,徐政,韩祯祥.电力系统灾变防治研究中的一些问题[J].电力系统自动化,24(6):7-12.
[12]鲁宗相.电网复杂性及大停电事故的可靠性研究[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(12):93-97.
[13]周晶,张毅威,闵勇.电力系统连锁反应事故机理的初步研究[J].现代电力,2006,23(4):1-5.
[14]别朝红,王锡凡.复杂电力系统一类连锁反应事故可靠性评估模型和算法.电力系统自动化,Oct25,2001:30-34.
[15]孙可,韩祯祥,曹一家.复杂电网连锁故障模型评述.电网技术,2005,29(13):1-9.
[16]王梅义.维护电网安全的基本策略[J].电网技术,1997,21(2):36-40.
[17]杨以涵,张东英,马骞,等.大电网安全防御体系的基础研究[J].电网技术,2004,28(9):23-27
[18]占勇,程浩忠,熊虎岗.电力网络连锁故障研究综述.电力自动化设备,2005,25(9):93-98.
[19]余晓丹,贾宏杰,陈建华.电力系统连锁故障预测初探[J].电网技术,2006,30(13):20-25.
[20]李蓉蓉,张晔,江全元.复杂电力系统连锁故障的风险评估[J].电网技术,2006,30(10):18-23
[21]Makarov Y V,Hardiman,R C.Risk,reliability,cascading,and restructuring[C].IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting,Toronto,Canada,2003,3:1417-1429.
[22]Tanrounglak S,Horowitz S H,Phadke A G;et al.Anatomy of power system:preventive relaying strategies[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,1996,11(2):708-714.
[23]Phadke A G,Thorp J S.Expose Hidden Failures to Prevent Cascading Outages[J].IEEE Computer Application in Power,1996,9(3):20-23.
[24]王明俊.大电网继电自动装置的隐藏故障、脆弱性和适应性问题[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25(3):1-5.
[25]Yu X B,Singh C.Power system reliability analysis considering protection failures[C].IEEE PES Summer Meeting,Chicago,USA,2002,2:963-968.
[26]Koeunyi B,Thorp J S.An importance sampling application:179 bus WSCC system under voltage based hidden failures and relay misoperations[C].Proceedings of the Thirty-First Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Hawaii,1998,3:39-46.
[27]Wang H,Thorp J S.Optimal locations for protection system enhancement:a simulation of cascading outages[J].IEEE Transactions on power systems,2001,16(4):528-533.
[28]Rios M A,Kirschen D S,Jayaweera D,et al.Value of security:modeling tine-dependent phenomena and whether conditions[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2002,17(3):543-548.
[29]李生虎,丁明,王敏,等.考虑故障不确定性和保护动作性能的电网连锁故障模式搜索[J].电网技术,2004,28(13):27-31,44.
[30]李景平,刘军海.复杂科学的研究对象:非线性复杂系统[J].系统辩证学学报,2005,13(3):60-65.
[31]Carreras B A,Newman D E,Dobson I,et al.Evidence for self-organized criticality in electric power system blackouts[C].Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2001.
[32]Chen J,Thorp J S,Dobson I.Cascading dynamics and mitigation assessment in power system disturbances via a hidden failure model[J].International Journal Electrical Power and Energy Systems,2005,27(4):318-326.
[33]梅可玉.论自组织临界性与复杂系统的演化行为[J].系统辩证学学报,2004,12(4): 38-41.
[34]Carreras B A,Lynch V E,Dobson I,et al.Complex dynamics of blackouts in power transmission systems[J].Chaos,2004,14(3):641-652.
[35]Dobson I,Carreras B A,Lynch V E,et al.Estimating failure propagation in models of cascading blackouts[C].8th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems,Ames,USA,2004:641-646.
[36]Dobson I,Carreras B A,Newman D E.A probabilistic loading dependent model of cascading failure and possible implications for blackouts[C].Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2003.
[37]Dobson I,Chen J,Carreras B A,et al.Examining criticality of blackouts in power system models with cascading events[C].Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2002.
[38]Dobson I,Carreras B A,Newman D E.A branching process approximation to cascading load-dependent system failure[C].35th Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2004.
[39]Dobson I,Carreras B A,Newman D E.A criticality approach to monitoring cascading failure risk and failure propagation in transmission systems[C].Conference at Carnegie Mellon University,Pittsburgh,USA,2004.
[40]易俊,周孝信.考虑系统频率特性以及保护隐藏故障的电网连锁故障模型[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(14):1-5.
[41]曹欣,张毅威,郭琼.电网连锁故障研究新进展[J].中国电力,2005,38(7):1-5.
[42]孟仲伟,鲁仲相,宋靖雁.中美电网的小世界拓扑模型比较分析[J].电力系统自动化,2004.28(15):21-29.
[43]Virtual round table on ten leading questions for network[J].The European Physical Journal B,2004,38(1):143-145.
[44]占勇,程浩忠,熊虎岗.电力网络连锁故障研究综述[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25(9):93-98.
[45]肖炊,郭永基,席勇健,等.一种评估大规模电力系统可靠性的新算法[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),1999,39(1):12-15.
[46]易俊,周孝信.电力系统广域保护与控制综述[J].电网技术,2006,30(8):8-12,30.
[47]张保会,周德才,姚峰,等.预防连锁过载避免大停电发生[C].电力系统及其自动化专业第二十一届学术年会论文集,南宁,2005,(3):1102-1106.
[48]王锡凡,王秀丽.实用电力系统静态安全分析[J].西安交通大学学报,1988,22(1):25-36.
[49]诸俊伟.电力系统分析[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1995.
[50]吴际舜.电力系统静态安全分析[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1985.
[51]邱关源.电路(下册)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1989.
[52]邓慧琼.电网连锁故障预测分析方法及其应用研究[D].华北电力大学博士论文,2007.
[53]印永华,郭剑波,赵建军,等.美加“8.14"大停电事故初步分析以及应吸取的教训[J].电网技术,2003,27(10):8-11.
[54]王成山,许晓菲,余贻鑫,等.基于割集功率空间上的静态电压稳定域局部可视化方法.中国电机工程学报,2004,24(9):13-18.
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