中国外汇储备有效管理研究
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摘要
亚洲金融危机后,多数国家和地区特别是新兴市场国家或经济体都扩大了外汇储备的持有规模,储备规模的增大给这些国家和地区的金融管理当局提出了新的问题和新的挑战。如何加强外汇储备管理、测算储备风险、构建完整的储备管理体系,诸如此类问题已引起了国际金融机构、国内外专家学者和各国政府的高度重视。目前,我国是全球官方外汇储备最多、也是增长最快的国家,但现行外汇储备管理的体系和管理方法已经给国家经济效益、社会效益甚至宏观经济政策的实施和对外贸易环境造成了一定的影响。在储备规模持续增长的状况下,如何有效控制外汇储备的增长速度和规模?如何合理优化外汇储备的币种、资产结构?如何有效控制或分散外汇储备风险,从而稳定外汇储备价值并获取最大的收益?这些问题是当前我国外汇储备管理必须面对且迫切需要解决的主要问题。从理论研究角度看,国内外学者在外汇储备全面系统管理方面研究还不够,特别在外汇储备管理有效性、有效管理方面研究涉足较少。这使得本文的研究对丰富该领域理论与加强我国外汇储备管理都具有重要的意义。
全文围绕我国外汇储备有效管理这一核心,沿着“存在问题—剖析问题—解决问题”的逻辑循序渐进地展开研究。首先,在对相关理论和文献进行梳理和阐述的基础上,对我国外汇储备管理的历史、现状进行了回顾与分析,概括了外汇储备管理的特点;通过对管理有效性进行定性、定量检验,得出现行我国外汇储备管理是低效的结论。其次,详细剖析了当前我国外汇储备管理存在的问题,指出正是这些问题的存在导致外汇储备管理低效率和低效益,因此,必须加强我国外汇储备有效管理。再次,在此基础上,引入外汇储备有效管理的概念,指出外汇储备有效管理是追求管理效益和效率的过程,并从理论角度对外汇储备有效管理的概念、原则、目标和管理的主要内容进行了探析,从实践角度剖析、总结了其他国家和地区外汇储备有效管理的经验和启示,为我国外汇储备有效管理提供理论依据和实践参考。最后,提出了我国外汇储备有效管理的具体策略,包括从宏观角度构建了我国外汇储备有效管理的POMDOI管理体系,从微观角度就外汇储备规模管理、外汇储备结构管理、外汇储备风险管理及外汇储备有效管理的配套建设等方面进行了分析,提出了具体的策略和建议。
本文的主要创新在于:(1)首次对中国外汇储备管理有效性进行定性、定量分析与检验,并得出中国现行外汇储备管理是低效的结论;(2)剖析了中国外汇储备管理低效的多层次原因与根本性原因,指出:缺乏一个完善、合理、科学的外汇储备管理体系是中国外汇储备管理低效的根本原因;(3)首次从理论角度对外汇储备有效管理进行了定义,指出:外汇储备有效管理注重管理效率和效益的同时实现,是通过有效措施的实施,实现外汇储备资产的充分使用和合理配置,减低管理成本,获得最大经济收益和社会收益的管理过程;(4)分别对发达国家(区域)及发展中国家(地区)外汇储备管理改革的做法和特点进行了归纳和总结,为我国外汇储备管理改革提供参考。(5)从宏观角度构建了中国外汇储备有效管理的“POMDOI”管理体系,对管理理念、管理模式和组织构架、管理思路、管理目标、管理有效性检验指标等进行了改革和设计;(6)从微观角度设计了中国外汇储备有效管理的具体方案,包括:改进了Agarwal模型,建立了中国外汇储备适度规模目标区;结合Heller-Knight和Dooley模型设计了中国外汇储备中流动性储备币种结构目标区,运用资产管理理论设计了中国外汇储备中收益性储备币种结构目标区;对外汇储备风险进行分类、定义,对主要风险的度量提出了测度方法,建立了中国外汇储备全面风险管理体系。
After Asia Financial Crisis, most countries and regions, especially those newly-em erging market nation or economic agents, have increased their scales of FX reserves. The practice brings about more challenges to the management authorities. As a result, issues, such as how to strengthen Foerign exchange reserves management, calculate FX reserves risks and build up an integrated Foreign exchange reserves management system, have attracted attention from international organizations, scholars and governments. China has the largest scale and the highest growth rate of Foreign exchange reserves in the world. Unfortunately, the FX reserves low-effective management has negatively influenced its micro and macro economic and social environment. With the continuing growth of China's FX reserves, problems, for example, how to control the growth rate and scale, how to optimize currency and capital structure, how to diversify risks, how to stabilize and gain the greatest value, are concerned and urgent. From theoretical perspective, scholars have not deeply researched the systematic management of Foreign exchange, especially on the efficiency, which makes the research not only enriches theoretical research but extends our practice.
The thesis focuses on China's Foreign exchange Reserves Effective Management, developing with the logic of "Exist question- Analyze question-Resolve question". First, based on the summary of related theory and literature, it reviews the history of China's foreign exchange reserves managements and concludes the characteristic of different periods. Though empirical and theoretical examination, it draws a conclusion that China's Foreign exchange reserves management is in Low-Efficiency status, and the reasons derive from various aspects, but the most significant one is lack of a perfect and rational management system. Under the external and internal circumstances, the unsustainable status should be enhanced and promoted. Furthermore, the paper introduces the concept of Foreign exchange reserves effective management and points out the process integrates pursuing management both efficiency and profits. From the theoretical analysis of the Conception、General Principles, Purpose and Major Content of Foreign exchange reserves effective anagement, the paper exemplifies and summarizes international experiences to provide theoretical and practical reference for china's Foreign exchange reserves effective management. Lastly, from macro perspective, it builds up POMDOI system for Chinese FX reserve effective management, and from micro perspective, it offers concrete political suggestion and strategy.
The originality mainly lies in: (1) It is the first time to conclude that Chinese Foreign exchange management is low-effective, from the empirical and theoretical perspective.(2) It points out the basic reason is lack a perfect, reasonable and scientific Foreign exchange reserves management system. (3) It designs POMDOI for Chinese Foreign exchange reserves management system and reforms the conception, model and thinking patterns.(4) It sets up the test index for Foreign exchange reserves management system.(5) It forms the target zone, fluid currency structure zone and profitable currency structure zone for Chinese Foreign exchange reserves management.(6) It differentiates and defines the test approaches of main risks of foreign exchange reserves and systemizes Chinese Foreign exchange reserves risk management.
全文围绕我国外汇储备有效管理这一核心,沿着“存在问题—剖析问题—解决问题”的逻辑循序渐进地展开研究。首先,在对相关理论和文献进行梳理和阐述的基础上,对我国外汇储备管理的历史、现状进行了回顾与分析,概括了外汇储备管理的特点;通过对管理有效性进行定性、定量检验,得出现行我国外汇储备管理是低效的结论。其次,详细剖析了当前我国外汇储备管理存在的问题,指出正是这些问题的存在导致外汇储备管理低效率和低效益,因此,必须加强我国外汇储备有效管理。再次,在此基础上,引入外汇储备有效管理的概念,指出外汇储备有效管理是追求管理效益和效率的过程,并从理论角度对外汇储备有效管理的概念、原则、目标和管理的主要内容进行了探析,从实践角度剖析、总结了其他国家和地区外汇储备有效管理的经验和启示,为我国外汇储备有效管理提供理论依据和实践参考。最后,提出了我国外汇储备有效管理的具体策略,包括从宏观角度构建了我国外汇储备有效管理的POMDOI管理体系,从微观角度就外汇储备规模管理、外汇储备结构管理、外汇储备风险管理及外汇储备有效管理的配套建设等方面进行了分析,提出了具体的策略和建议。
本文的主要创新在于:(1)首次对中国外汇储备管理有效性进行定性、定量分析与检验,并得出中国现行外汇储备管理是低效的结论;(2)剖析了中国外汇储备管理低效的多层次原因与根本性原因,指出:缺乏一个完善、合理、科学的外汇储备管理体系是中国外汇储备管理低效的根本原因;(3)首次从理论角度对外汇储备有效管理进行了定义,指出:外汇储备有效管理注重管理效率和效益的同时实现,是通过有效措施的实施,实现外汇储备资产的充分使用和合理配置,减低管理成本,获得最大经济收益和社会收益的管理过程;(4)分别对发达国家(区域)及发展中国家(地区)外汇储备管理改革的做法和特点进行了归纳和总结,为我国外汇储备管理改革提供参考。(5)从宏观角度构建了中国外汇储备有效管理的“POMDOI”管理体系,对管理理念、管理模式和组织构架、管理思路、管理目标、管理有效性检验指标等进行了改革和设计;(6)从微观角度设计了中国外汇储备有效管理的具体方案,包括:改进了Agarwal模型,建立了中国外汇储备适度规模目标区;结合Heller-Knight和Dooley模型设计了中国外汇储备中流动性储备币种结构目标区,运用资产管理理论设计了中国外汇储备中收益性储备币种结构目标区;对外汇储备风险进行分类、定义,对主要风险的度量提出了测度方法,建立了中国外汇储备全面风险管理体系。
After Asia Financial Crisis, most countries and regions, especially those newly-em erging market nation or economic agents, have increased their scales of FX reserves. The practice brings about more challenges to the management authorities. As a result, issues, such as how to strengthen Foerign exchange reserves management, calculate FX reserves risks and build up an integrated Foreign exchange reserves management system, have attracted attention from international organizations, scholars and governments. China has the largest scale and the highest growth rate of Foreign exchange reserves in the world. Unfortunately, the FX reserves low-effective management has negatively influenced its micro and macro economic and social environment. With the continuing growth of China's FX reserves, problems, for example, how to control the growth rate and scale, how to optimize currency and capital structure, how to diversify risks, how to stabilize and gain the greatest value, are concerned and urgent. From theoretical perspective, scholars have not deeply researched the systematic management of Foreign exchange, especially on the efficiency, which makes the research not only enriches theoretical research but extends our practice.
The thesis focuses on China's Foreign exchange Reserves Effective Management, developing with the logic of "Exist question- Analyze question-Resolve question". First, based on the summary of related theory and literature, it reviews the history of China's foreign exchange reserves managements and concludes the characteristic of different periods. Though empirical and theoretical examination, it draws a conclusion that China's Foreign exchange reserves management is in Low-Efficiency status, and the reasons derive from various aspects, but the most significant one is lack of a perfect and rational management system. Under the external and internal circumstances, the unsustainable status should be enhanced and promoted. Furthermore, the paper introduces the concept of Foreign exchange reserves effective management and points out the process integrates pursuing management both efficiency and profits. From the theoretical analysis of the Conception、General Principles, Purpose and Major Content of Foreign exchange reserves effective anagement, the paper exemplifies and summarizes international experiences to provide theoretical and practical reference for china's Foreign exchange reserves effective management. Lastly, from macro perspective, it builds up POMDOI system for Chinese FX reserve effective management, and from micro perspective, it offers concrete political suggestion and strategy.
The originality mainly lies in: (1) It is the first time to conclude that Chinese Foreign exchange management is low-effective, from the empirical and theoretical perspective.(2) It points out the basic reason is lack a perfect, reasonable and scientific Foreign exchange reserves management system. (3) It designs POMDOI for Chinese Foreign exchange reserves management system and reforms the conception, model and thinking patterns.(4) It sets up the test index for Foreign exchange reserves management system.(5) It forms the target zone, fluid currency structure zone and profitable currency structure zone for Chinese Foreign exchange reserves management.(6) It differentiates and defines the test approaches of main risks of foreign exchange reserves and systemizes Chinese Foreign exchange reserves risk management.
引文
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