跨国经营政治风险及其管理研究
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摘要
在两极对峙时期，发展中国家在摆脱殖民统治后，经常对跨国公司进行政治干预。跨国经营政治风险方面的理论基本上是西方学者站在发达国家跨国公司的立场上，以60—70年代的世界政治格局为背景提出的，有一定的局限性。
论文将管理学与经济学、政治学方法结合起来对跨国经营政治风险进行研究，突破了过去主要依赖政治学经济学方法对跨国经营研究的局限，将三种研究方法的结合将大大扩宽研究的视野，有助于对跨国经营政治风险分析系统深入而又完整的了解。只有在对跨国经营政治风险管理具有深刻的了解和研究的基础上，才能够利用所研究的理论来探讨中国实际的问题，为中国企业跨国经营发展献计献策。使分析更加全面，更具有现实意义。
本文从研究政治风险概念的演变过程、存在的争议和发展趋势入手，总结对比宏观、宏微观和微观等三种政治风险分析方法，认为当代政治风险理论的适用范围缩小、政治风险理论无法满足企业管理的需要、政治风险理论框架较大程度忽视经济因素是目前跨国公司政治风险研究的主要问题。接着本文继续就政治风险担保工具作了深入探讨。分别讨论了国际组织(多边投资担保机构、世界银行、业洲开发银行)、西方政府海外投资促进机构和私营保险公司的政治风险担保工具及他们的具体运用。
根据政治风险领域的研究现状，本文接着从政府和企业的视角来分析跨国经营政治风险的管理。从政府角度看，母国政府可以从国内立法、提供信息咨询服务、建立海外投资保障制度、签订双边、多边投资保护条约等手段减少本国企业在国外投资的政治风险；东道国可以在宪法、外资立法等法律手段上提供法律保证；还可以通过区域性或全球性国际投资法制提供政治风险稳定框架协议等。从企业角度看，不同时期有不同的风险评价机制和规避方法，在投资初期，主要采取前期测评和避让策略，在投资中期，可以采取投资主体、投资客体分散化、短期利润最大化和有计划撤资策略。在投资后期，主要采取让步、管理合同、收割、撤退和补救等方法减少政治风险波动带来的损失。
接着本文通过问卷方式对上海跨国经营企业的实证研究，深入分析中国跨国经营政治风险的发展现状。问卷调查发现跨国经营政治风险宏观管理制度无序、企业内部政治风险管理的监管缺位、跨国经营政治风险管理法律保障制度滞后、跨国经营区位结构失衡、跨国经营产业结构不合理、担保工具缺位等是我国企业跨国经营政治风险管理存在的主要问题。
最后本文从宏观和微观两个方面提出政治风险管理的政策思考和实施策略。从宏观角度看，政府通过加强政治风险管理立法和政策支持，完善双边、区域和多边投资保护机制、拓展为投资者提供信息咨询服务的渠道和建立海外投资保证制度，为中国企业跨国经营政治风险管理提供政策支持和一个稳定的政治环境。从微观角度看，我国企业在国外投资时可以从目标定位、构建风险预警机制、建立风险自我控制机制、区位选择、产业选择、产品选择、技术选择等方面的策略规避跨国经营政治风险。
本研究可供政府对本国企业国外直接投资提供政策管理指导，也可以为我国企业跨国经营提供具体的政治风险防范与规避方法。
In the period of two-pole confrontation, developing countries often carry out political intervention for multinational corporations after they get rid of colonialist rulers. Existing theories on the political risk management of transnational operation have certain limitations, since they are proposed mainly by western scholars in 1960's and 1970's, and are based on the perspectives of multinational corporations in developed countries.
This paper studies political risk of transnational operation through a trans-disciplinary approach, by combining business administration, economics and politics methods, an approach that breaks through the limitation of the current methodology, which relies solely on the insights from political economy. The new combined research framework would greatly expand research vision and will thus help to form a bigger picture of the analysis system for managing political risk across countries. It is only on the basis of deep understanding and research that the theory could be correctly applied to the reality in China. On the realistic level, the theory would generate useful suggestions and advice for Chinese enterprises with the intention to operate overseas.
The layout and main findings of the paper are as follows:
Firstly, the paper discusses the main problems of existing research on political risk of multinational corporations. By studying the development, contentions and theoretical tendency around the concept of political risk, the paper compared the three analysis methodologies of political risk, namely the macro-, micro- and macro-and-micro methods, and comes out with the finding that the shrinkage of applicable scope, the unsatisfied demand of enterprise management on political risk theories, and the neglect of economic factors are the three main de-merits of the existing research framework.
Secondly, the paper undergoes a thorough discussion on political risk guarantee tools by analyzing, respectively, political risk insurance tools provided by public and private providers, and by international organizations such as MIGA, World Bank, Asian Development Bank. The paper also discusses the utilization of these tools.
Thirdly, the paper analyzes the political risk management of transnational operation from the viewpoints of the government as well as that of enterprises. From the viewpoint of the government, the home country government can reduce the political risk of its enterprise invested overseas by implementing domestic legislation, offering information consultation service, building up overseas investment assurance institution and signing bilateral and multilateral investment protection treaty, and etc. The host country can provide legal assurance by means of constitution and foreign investment legislation, as well as by offering political risk stability framework agreement via regional or global international investment legal system. From the viewpoint of enterprises, there are different risk assessment mechanism and risk avoidance methods in different periods of
the investment. During the initial stage of investment, enterprises mainly take early-stage measures and risk avoidance strategy. During the mid-term, they can adopt strategies of investment body decentralization, short-term profit maximization and capital withdrawal. During the later stage, they can adopt concession, management contract, reap and withdrawal or remedy strategies to decrease losses from political risk fluctuation.
Fourthly, the paper carries out a survey and an empirical research on Shanghai enterprises with transnational operations so that we can further analyze current situation of political risks faced by Chinese enterprises. The outcome shows the disorder of transnational operation political risk macro-management system, the lack of supervision inside multinational corporations, the vacancy of transnational operation political risk management protection institutions, the imbalance of foreign investment regional structure, the irrationality in transnational operation industrial structure and the lack of guarantee tools. These are the main problems of political risks management faced by our enterprises in transnational operation.
Finally, the paper proposes policy suggestions and the practice strategies on political risk management from both macro- and micro- aspects. From the macro-aspect, the paper suggests that the major ways to avoid risks are to enhance political risk management legislation and policy support provision, to improve bilateral and multilateral investment protection treaty, to extend channels to provide information consultation service for investors and to establish overseas investment protection institution. The paper concludes that through such means the Chinese government can provide policy support and a steady political environment for enterprises with overseas investments. From micro-aspect, the paper argues that Chinese enterprises can avoid overseas political risks by the following strategies: setting up risk early-warning system and self control system, carefully selection and decision of the objective, region, industry, product and technology of investments.
This research not only proposes a suggestion for government to offer policy management on foreign direct investment, but also provides a guideline for Chinese enterprises with concrete means to avoid political risks faced in overseas operation.
论文将管理学与经济学、政治学方法结合起来对跨国经营政治风险进行研究，突破了过去主要依赖政治学经济学方法对跨国经营研究的局限，将三种研究方法的结合将大大扩宽研究的视野，有助于对跨国经营政治风险分析系统深入而又完整的了解。只有在对跨国经营政治风险管理具有深刻的了解和研究的基础上，才能够利用所研究的理论来探讨中国实际的问题，为中国企业跨国经营发展献计献策。使分析更加全面，更具有现实意义。
本文从研究政治风险概念的演变过程、存在的争议和发展趋势入手，总结对比宏观、宏微观和微观等三种政治风险分析方法，认为当代政治风险理论的适用范围缩小、政治风险理论无法满足企业管理的需要、政治风险理论框架较大程度忽视经济因素是目前跨国公司政治风险研究的主要问题。接着本文继续就政治风险担保工具作了深入探讨。分别讨论了国际组织(多边投资担保机构、世界银行、业洲开发银行)、西方政府海外投资促进机构和私营保险公司的政治风险担保工具及他们的具体运用。
根据政治风险领域的研究现状，本文接着从政府和企业的视角来分析跨国经营政治风险的管理。从政府角度看，母国政府可以从国内立法、提供信息咨询服务、建立海外投资保障制度、签订双边、多边投资保护条约等手段减少本国企业在国外投资的政治风险；东道国可以在宪法、外资立法等法律手段上提供法律保证；还可以通过区域性或全球性国际投资法制提供政治风险稳定框架协议等。从企业角度看，不同时期有不同的风险评价机制和规避方法，在投资初期，主要采取前期测评和避让策略，在投资中期，可以采取投资主体、投资客体分散化、短期利润最大化和有计划撤资策略。在投资后期，主要采取让步、管理合同、收割、撤退和补救等方法减少政治风险波动带来的损失。
接着本文通过问卷方式对上海跨国经营企业的实证研究，深入分析中国跨国经营政治风险的发展现状。问卷调查发现跨国经营政治风险宏观管理制度无序、企业内部政治风险管理的监管缺位、跨国经营政治风险管理法律保障制度滞后、跨国经营区位结构失衡、跨国经营产业结构不合理、担保工具缺位等是我国企业跨国经营政治风险管理存在的主要问题。
最后本文从宏观和微观两个方面提出政治风险管理的政策思考和实施策略。从宏观角度看，政府通过加强政治风险管理立法和政策支持，完善双边、区域和多边投资保护机制、拓展为投资者提供信息咨询服务的渠道和建立海外投资保证制度，为中国企业跨国经营政治风险管理提供政策支持和一个稳定的政治环境。从微观角度看，我国企业在国外投资时可以从目标定位、构建风险预警机制、建立风险自我控制机制、区位选择、产业选择、产品选择、技术选择等方面的策略规避跨国经营政治风险。
本研究可供政府对本国企业国外直接投资提供政策管理指导，也可以为我国企业跨国经营提供具体的政治风险防范与规避方法。
In the period of two-pole confrontation, developing countries often carry out political intervention for multinational corporations after they get rid of colonialist rulers. Existing theories on the political risk management of transnational operation have certain limitations, since they are proposed mainly by western scholars in 1960's and 1970's, and are based on the perspectives of multinational corporations in developed countries.
This paper studies political risk of transnational operation through a trans-disciplinary approach, by combining business administration, economics and politics methods, an approach that breaks through the limitation of the current methodology, which relies solely on the insights from political economy. The new combined research framework would greatly expand research vision and will thus help to form a bigger picture of the analysis system for managing political risk across countries. It is only on the basis of deep understanding and research that the theory could be correctly applied to the reality in China. On the realistic level, the theory would generate useful suggestions and advice for Chinese enterprises with the intention to operate overseas.
The layout and main findings of the paper are as follows:
Firstly, the paper discusses the main problems of existing research on political risk of multinational corporations. By studying the development, contentions and theoretical tendency around the concept of political risk, the paper compared the three analysis methodologies of political risk, namely the macro-, micro- and macro-and-micro methods, and comes out with the finding that the shrinkage of applicable scope, the unsatisfied demand of enterprise management on political risk theories, and the neglect of economic factors are the three main de-merits of the existing research framework.
Secondly, the paper undergoes a thorough discussion on political risk guarantee tools by analyzing, respectively, political risk insurance tools provided by public and private providers, and by international organizations such as MIGA, World Bank, Asian Development Bank. The paper also discusses the utilization of these tools.
Thirdly, the paper analyzes the political risk management of transnational operation from the viewpoints of the government as well as that of enterprises. From the viewpoint of the government, the home country government can reduce the political risk of its enterprise invested overseas by implementing domestic legislation, offering information consultation service, building up overseas investment assurance institution and signing bilateral and multilateral investment protection treaty, and etc. The host country can provide legal assurance by means of constitution and foreign investment legislation, as well as by offering political risk stability framework agreement via regional or global international investment legal system. From the viewpoint of enterprises, there are different risk assessment mechanism and risk avoidance methods in different periods of
the investment. During the initial stage of investment, enterprises mainly take early-stage measures and risk avoidance strategy. During the mid-term, they can adopt strategies of investment body decentralization, short-term profit maximization and capital withdrawal. During the later stage, they can adopt concession, management contract, reap and withdrawal or remedy strategies to decrease losses from political risk fluctuation.
Fourthly, the paper carries out a survey and an empirical research on Shanghai enterprises with transnational operations so that we can further analyze current situation of political risks faced by Chinese enterprises. The outcome shows the disorder of transnational operation political risk macro-management system, the lack of supervision inside multinational corporations, the vacancy of transnational operation political risk management protection institutions, the imbalance of foreign investment regional structure, the irrationality in transnational operation industrial structure and the lack of guarantee tools. These are the main problems of political risks management faced by our enterprises in transnational operation.
Finally, the paper proposes policy suggestions and the practice strategies on political risk management from both macro- and micro- aspects. From the macro-aspect, the paper suggests that the major ways to avoid risks are to enhance political risk management legislation and policy support provision, to improve bilateral and multilateral investment protection treaty, to extend channels to provide information consultation service for investors and to establish overseas investment protection institution. The paper concludes that through such means the Chinese government can provide policy support and a steady political environment for enterprises with overseas investments. From micro-aspect, the paper argues that Chinese enterprises can avoid overseas political risks by the following strategies: setting up risk early-warning system and self control system, carefully selection and decision of the objective, region, industry, product and technology of investments.
This research not only proposes a suggestion for government to offer policy management on foreign direct investment, but also provides a guideline for Chinese enterprises with concrete means to avoid political risks faced in overseas operation.
引文
2 Slater, 1987: 151
3 Rummel & Heenan, 1978: 67-76
4 http://www.beri.com/22 2002年9月
5 http://www.prsgroup.com.22 2002年9月
6 Gibson & Miller: 1990: 34
9 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development国际复兴开发银行。
10 International Development association, 国际开发协会。
11 参见MIGA Review2000(2000年11月3日出版的有关MIGA近五年的评价报告)，第43-44页。
12 参见Subogntion under the MIGA Convention, ICSID Review-Foreign Investment Law Journal, Vol. 2, 1987, p111.
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4 http://www.beri.com/22 2002年9月
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11 参见MIGA Review2000(2000年11月3日出版的有关MIGA近五年的评价报告)，第43-44页。
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