中国林产品国际贸易的比较利益研究
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摘要
贸易的比较利益一直是经济学研究的重要论题之一。在林产品贸易领域,围绕这一论题的研究大多在单一初级林产品价格扭曲背景下展开,研究的重点是贸易对初级林产品出口国森林资源状况的影响。而现实世界中,在大多数转型经济中,林业是一个存在多部门产出价格扭曲的行业。扭曲是对帕累托最优的偏离。在产出价格扭曲背景下,要素在林业行业部门间的配置本身存在扭曲。开放经济下,贸易引致要素在部门间的重置。贸易可以减轻要素的错配程度,带来效率收益,也可以加大要素的错配程度,引致效率损失。在转型经济初期,该如何抑弊扬利、充分发挥贸易的要素重置功能?从长远看,该如何促进贸易比较利益的增进?本文旨在剖析转型经济背景下我国林产品贸易比较利益扭曲的形成机理,并就比较利益的进一步增进展开研究。
针对我国转型经济初期特有的要素禀赋结构与制度约束条件,本文首先剖析了林产品贸易比较利益扭曲的形成机理,运用林产制成品部门的相关数据进行实证分析,并揭示了环境资源和森林资源存量的动态演进在贸易要素重置功能中所起的关键作用。接着本文探索贸易比较利益增进的途径。通过情景模拟分析,定量考察了生产负外部性降低对我国林产品贸易比较利益的影响及其作用机理。最后,本文剖析了林产品出口盈利增长与本国森林资源发展良性互动的机理,以促进贸易比较利益的内生增进,并提出了相关建议。
本文可能的创新点如下：
1、揭示了转型经济背景下林产品贸易比较利益扭曲的形成机理。本文通过计量分析,揭示了贸易促进总量全要素生产率增长的要素重置效应。并且本文揭示了环境资源和森林资源存量的动态演进在贸易要素重置功能中所起的关键作用,为抑弊扬利、充分发挥贸易的要素重置功能提供了有益思路。
2、通过情景模拟分析,定量考察了生产负外部性降低对贸易比较利益的影响及其作用机理。虽然已有研究都认识到内部化外部性对贸易比较利益增进的重要性,但具体作用机理方面的定量研究却较少。本文考察了2016—2025年我国胶合板部门生产负外部性逐步降低对贸易比较利益的数量影响,揭示了负外部性降低促进比较利益增进的全要素生产率效应和产出-投入比价效应,并揭示了其中产出-投入比价效应是相对更为重要的驱动力。从研究方法看,本文将动态可计算局部均衡模型应用于生产负外部性降低对贸易比较利益影响的定量分析,这在研究方法上也是一种尝试。
3、揭示了林产品出口盈利增长与本国森林资源发展良性互动的实现机理。这一互动的形成,是贸易比较利益的内生增进过程,也是贸易为本国森林资源的发展提供源源不断经济激励的过程。从我国目前情况看,随林改的进一步推进,越来越多的中小农户成为经营主体,广大农户培育森林资源的最主要目的是为获取经济收益。因此,在制度激励已起步的同时,迫在眉睫的是如何为森林培育提供可持续的经济激励。以贸易的发展促进本国森林资源的可持续经营,同样适用于其他具有林业发展潜力的国家。
Study on comparative advantage interests of trade is the important issue of academic research. Most of the literature on this topic studies the effects on exporters' forest resource under the assumption of single output price distortion. In reality, forestry sector is a sector with multipal output prices distortions in the context of economic transformation. Distortion implies departure from Pareto optimality. There are intersectional factor misallocations in the presence of multi-distortions. In the open economy, trade will induce intersectional factor reallocation. Trade can alleviate or aggravate misallocations, bringing efficiency gains or inducing efficiency losses. How to put the reallocation function of trade into full play in the transformation stage? How to improve comparative advantage interests of trade in the log run? This study aims at revealing the mechanism how the comparative advantage interests of trade are distorted and exploring ways to improve comparative advantage interests.
According to the unique factor endowment structure and institution restriction in China's early stage of economic transformation, this study reveals the mechanism how the comparative advantage interests of forest products trade are distorted from both the theoretical and the empirical dimensions, and reveals the key role of environment resource and forest resource dynamics in the reallocation function of trade. Then this study explores ways to improve comparative advantage interests of trade. This study investigates the effects and mechanisms of changes in the value of negative production externality on comparative advantage interests of forest products trade. Finally, this study reveals the mechanism of the positive interaction between the growth of trade profits and the development of domestic forest resource, and puts forward suggestions.
The creative explorations of this study are as follows:
1. This study reveals the mechanism how the comparative advantage interests of forest products trade are distorted in the context of economic transformation. This study quantitively proves the TFP enhancing effect of factor reallocation induced by trade. This study reveals the key role of environment resource and forest resource dynamics in the reallocation function of trade, providing solutions to put the reallocation function of trade into full play.
2. This study investigates the effects and mechanisms of changes in the value of negative production externality on comparative advantage interests of trade. This study investigates the quantity effects if the value of negative production externality in plywood sector declines during2016-2025. It reveals that the TFP effect and the output-input price effect are contributing factors to the improvement of comparative advantage interests of trade, and illustrates that the output-input price effect is the main driving force, As an exploration in research method, this study employs the dynamic computable partial equilibrium model to the quantity analysis.
3. This study reveals the mechanism of the positive interaction between the growth of trade profits and the development of domestic forest resource. The process of the establishment of the positive interaction is the process that the comparative advantage interests of trade is enhanced, and the process that trade provides sustainable economic incentives for the development of domestic forest resource. With the implementation of forest tenure reform, more and more households engage in forest cultivation. It is an urgent task for us to provide sustainable economic incentives for forest cultivation. Boosting the sustainable management of domestic forest resource with economic incentives from forest products trade is also inspiring for other countries with forestry potentials.
针对我国转型经济初期特有的要素禀赋结构与制度约束条件,本文首先剖析了林产品贸易比较利益扭曲的形成机理,运用林产制成品部门的相关数据进行实证分析,并揭示了环境资源和森林资源存量的动态演进在贸易要素重置功能中所起的关键作用。接着本文探索贸易比较利益增进的途径。通过情景模拟分析,定量考察了生产负外部性降低对我国林产品贸易比较利益的影响及其作用机理。最后,本文剖析了林产品出口盈利增长与本国森林资源发展良性互动的机理,以促进贸易比较利益的内生增进,并提出了相关建议。
本文可能的创新点如下：
1、揭示了转型经济背景下林产品贸易比较利益扭曲的形成机理。本文通过计量分析,揭示了贸易促进总量全要素生产率增长的要素重置效应。并且本文揭示了环境资源和森林资源存量的动态演进在贸易要素重置功能中所起的关键作用,为抑弊扬利、充分发挥贸易的要素重置功能提供了有益思路。
2、通过情景模拟分析,定量考察了生产负外部性降低对贸易比较利益的影响及其作用机理。虽然已有研究都认识到内部化外部性对贸易比较利益增进的重要性,但具体作用机理方面的定量研究却较少。本文考察了2016—2025年我国胶合板部门生产负外部性逐步降低对贸易比较利益的数量影响,揭示了负外部性降低促进比较利益增进的全要素生产率效应和产出-投入比价效应,并揭示了其中产出-投入比价效应是相对更为重要的驱动力。从研究方法看,本文将动态可计算局部均衡模型应用于生产负外部性降低对贸易比较利益影响的定量分析,这在研究方法上也是一种尝试。
3、揭示了林产品出口盈利增长与本国森林资源发展良性互动的实现机理。这一互动的形成,是贸易比较利益的内生增进过程,也是贸易为本国森林资源的发展提供源源不断经济激励的过程。从我国目前情况看,随林改的进一步推进,越来越多的中小农户成为经营主体,广大农户培育森林资源的最主要目的是为获取经济收益。因此,在制度激励已起步的同时,迫在眉睫的是如何为森林培育提供可持续的经济激励。以贸易的发展促进本国森林资源的可持续经营,同样适用于其他具有林业发展潜力的国家。
Study on comparative advantage interests of trade is the important issue of academic research. Most of the literature on this topic studies the effects on exporters' forest resource under the assumption of single output price distortion. In reality, forestry sector is a sector with multipal output prices distortions in the context of economic transformation. Distortion implies departure from Pareto optimality. There are intersectional factor misallocations in the presence of multi-distortions. In the open economy, trade will induce intersectional factor reallocation. Trade can alleviate or aggravate misallocations, bringing efficiency gains or inducing efficiency losses. How to put the reallocation function of trade into full play in the transformation stage? How to improve comparative advantage interests of trade in the log run? This study aims at revealing the mechanism how the comparative advantage interests of trade are distorted and exploring ways to improve comparative advantage interests.
According to the unique factor endowment structure and institution restriction in China's early stage of economic transformation, this study reveals the mechanism how the comparative advantage interests of forest products trade are distorted from both the theoretical and the empirical dimensions, and reveals the key role of environment resource and forest resource dynamics in the reallocation function of trade. Then this study explores ways to improve comparative advantage interests of trade. This study investigates the effects and mechanisms of changes in the value of negative production externality on comparative advantage interests of forest products trade. Finally, this study reveals the mechanism of the positive interaction between the growth of trade profits and the development of domestic forest resource, and puts forward suggestions.
The creative explorations of this study are as follows:
1. This study reveals the mechanism how the comparative advantage interests of forest products trade are distorted in the context of economic transformation. This study quantitively proves the TFP enhancing effect of factor reallocation induced by trade. This study reveals the key role of environment resource and forest resource dynamics in the reallocation function of trade, providing solutions to put the reallocation function of trade into full play.
2. This study investigates the effects and mechanisms of changes in the value of negative production externality on comparative advantage interests of trade. This study investigates the quantity effects if the value of negative production externality in plywood sector declines during2016-2025. It reveals that the TFP effect and the output-input price effect are contributing factors to the improvement of comparative advantage interests of trade, and illustrates that the output-input price effect is the main driving force, As an exploration in research method, this study employs the dynamic computable partial equilibrium model to the quantity analysis.
3. This study reveals the mechanism of the positive interaction between the growth of trade profits and the development of domestic forest resource. The process of the establishment of the positive interaction is the process that the comparative advantage interests of trade is enhanced, and the process that trade provides sustainable economic incentives for the development of domestic forest resource. With the implementation of forest tenure reform, more and more households engage in forest cultivation. It is an urgent task for us to provide sustainable economic incentives for forest cultivation. Boosting the sustainable management of domestic forest resource with economic incentives from forest products trade is also inspiring for other countries with forestry potentials.
引文
① 本文为国家自然科学基金项目71173181阶段性研究成果。
② Stone, M. W. China and Certification:A Questionable Future. Journal of Forestry,2006,104(6):332-334
③ 白秀萍.日本森林、林业再生计划—从钢筋水泥社会走向木材社会.中国绿色时报,2010-03-24
④ 白秀萍.日本木材为什么不能大规模进入中国—把握日本林业脉动(上).中国绿色时报,2011-02-23
① 国家林业局政府网.第七次全国森林资源清查主要结果(2004-2008年).http://www.forestry.gov.cn/portal/main/s/65/content-326341.html
② 国家林业局政府网.中国森林生态服务功能年总价值10万亿元.http://www.forestry.gov.cn/portal/main/s/72/content-407896.html
③ 同上。
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
② 同上。
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究.2008(5)：17-23
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
① Thiele, R. and Wiebelt, M. Policies to Reduce Tropical Deforestation and Degradation:A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Cameroon. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture,1994,33(2):162-178
② Vincent J R. The Tropical Timber Trade and Sustainable Development. Science,1992,256:1651-1655
① Johnson, B., Responding to Tropical Deforestation:An Eruption of Crisis. An Array of Solutions. Washington: World Wildlife Fund.1991
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
② 同上。
① 程澄.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
② 国家林业局政府网.第七次全国森林资源清查主要结果(2004-2008年).http://www.forestry.gov.cn/portal/main/s/65/content-326341.html
③ 国家林业局政府网.中国森林生态服务功能年总价值10万亿元.http://www.forestty.gov.cn/portal/main/s/72/content-407896.html
④ 同上。
⑤ 张小蒂.资源节约型经济与利益机制.上海：上海三联书店,1993
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
② Clark C W. Mathematical Bioeconomics:the Optimal Management of Renewable Resources. New York:John Wiley.2005
② 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
② 同上。
① Petrin, Amil and James Levinsohn. Measuring Aggregate Productivity Growth Using Plant-Level Data. Working Paper,2008
① 此处的全要素生产率是指TFPR (TFP Revenue),而不是TFPQ(TFP Physical).有关TFPR和TFPQ的详细论述见Foster, Haltiwanger and Syverson (2008)和Hsieh and Klenow (2009).
① 联合国粮食及农业组织.2010年全球森林资源评估.罗马.2011
② 白秀萍.日本森林、林业再生计划—从钢筋水泥社会走向木材社会.中国绿色时报,2010-03-24
③ 白秀萍.日本木材为什么不能大规模进入中国—把握日本林业脉动(上).中国绿色时报,2011-02-23
① 张小蒂.程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
② 同上。
① 郭广荣.瑞典森林公司支付FsC木材额外费用.中国绿色时报,2008-09-18
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
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② Stone, M. W. China and Certification:A Questionable Future. Journal of Forestry,2006,104(6):332-334
③ 白秀萍.日本森林、林业再生计划—从钢筋水泥社会走向木材社会.中国绿色时报,2010-03-24
④ 白秀萍.日本木材为什么不能大规模进入中国—把握日本林业脉动(上).中国绿色时报,2011-02-23
① 国家林业局政府网.第七次全国森林资源清查主要结果(2004-2008年).http://www.forestry.gov.cn/portal/main/s/65/content-326341.html
② 国家林业局政府网.中国森林生态服务功能年总价值10万亿元.http://www.forestry.gov.cn/portal/main/s/72/content-407896.html
③ 同上。
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
② 同上。
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究.2008(5)：17-23
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
① Thiele, R. and Wiebelt, M. Policies to Reduce Tropical Deforestation and Degradation:A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Cameroon. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture,1994,33(2):162-178
② Vincent J R. The Tropical Timber Trade and Sustainable Development. Science,1992,256:1651-1655
① Johnson, B., Responding to Tropical Deforestation:An Eruption of Crisis. An Array of Solutions. Washington: World Wildlife Fund.1991
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
② 同上。
① 程澄.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
① 程滢.南北模型中的林产品贸易研究及启示.世界林业研究,2008(5)：17-23
② 国家林业局政府网.第七次全国森林资源清查主要结果(2004-2008年).http://www.forestry.gov.cn/portal/main/s/65/content-326341.html
③ 国家林业局政府网.中国森林生态服务功能年总价值10万亿元.http://www.forestty.gov.cn/portal/main/s/72/content-407896.html
④ 同上。
⑤ 张小蒂.资源节约型经济与利益机制.上海：上海三联书店,1993
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
② Clark C W. Mathematical Bioeconomics:the Optimal Management of Renewable Resources. New York:John Wiley.2005
② 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
② 同上。
① Petrin, Amil and James Levinsohn. Measuring Aggregate Productivity Growth Using Plant-Level Data. Working Paper,2008
① 此处的全要素生产率是指TFPR (TFP Revenue),而不是TFPQ(TFP Physical).有关TFPR和TFPQ的详细论述见Foster, Haltiwanger and Syverson (2008)和Hsieh and Klenow (2009).
① 联合国粮食及农业组织.2010年全球森林资源评估.罗马.2011
② 白秀萍.日本森林、林业再生计划—从钢筋水泥社会走向木材社会.中国绿色时报,2010-03-24
③ 白秀萍.日本木材为什么不能大规模进入中国—把握日本林业脉动(上).中国绿色时报,2011-02-23
① 张小蒂.程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
② 同上。
① 郭广荣.瑞典森林公司支付FsC木材额外费用.中国绿色时报,2008-09-18
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
① 张小蒂,程滢.初级木材产品进口对我国的环境效应.林业科学,2008(12)：116-122
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