网络社群参与公共决策的群体极化效应理论研究及实证分析
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摘要
近年来,随着互联网技术的飞速发展,网络逐渐成为民众表达情绪、发表观点的主要“基地”,但是由于其匿名性、随意性,网民发言时不仅自由随意,而且泥沙俱下、鱼龙混杂。另外,我国目前正处在社会转型时期,各种社会思潮和价值观相互激荡,大量社会问题一时间得不到有效解决,许多不满或失望的情绪很容易通过互联网这一渠道进行宣泄,网民从一开始的各抒己见到随意抒发不满或失望的情绪、再到通过互联网进行大肆的宣泄、互相攻击、谩骂…网络舆论非理性的成分十分突出,理性的分析和冷静的讨论非常缺乏,“群体极化”现象常有发生,这些现象极大地妨碍了司法运行的正常秩序,更使网络社区、论坛成为影响社会和谐稳定的策源地,十分不利于国家安宁。因此,网络环境下网络舆论的“群体极化”问题这几年成为政府和学者们的关注热点。
本文采用文献调查+模型仿真+实证研究相结合的方式,对国内网络社群参与公共决策时发生的群体极化现象展开研究。首先,本文对网络舆论群体极化现象研究的国内外现状进行梳理分析,以期从整体上把握国内外相关研究的理论根源、研究热点和存在问题；在此基础上,采用元胞自动机模型对网络舆论的传播现象进行模拟仿真研究,考虑到信息的模糊性和不确定性,引入模糊规则推理进行模型修正,然后用Matlab软件模拟网络舆论形成中个体和群体观点的演化过程,详细分析了群体极化现象产生的原因；最后,为了在现实环境下进一步验证上述理论研究的正确性,本文选取“天涯”和“凯迪”两个BBS论坛,对“二三线城市限购”话题相关帖子进行收集和统计分析,利用SPSS分析软件中的卡方检验法和相关分析法验证网络社群中群体极化的产生原因,尝试探讨几个方面：①网民在参与公共决策讨论中是否存在群体极化现象?程度如何?②网民的群体极化现象与其所处的环境(如论坛或者板块的特性等)是否有联系?③网民个体态度极化与其自身的特征(如发帖数、跟帖数)是否存在联系?等等。以期为政府更好地引导网民理性思维、减少群体极化、增强政府公信力提供对策建议。
In recent years, the network has gradually becoming the main "base" for people to express their emotions and views, but because of the anonymity and randomness about web public opinion, netizens can express their opinions at will and the speeches mixed up. Moreover, China is in a period of social transition, various kinds of social thoughts and values agitate each other, a large number of social problems are not be effectively solved in time, netizens give vent to their dissatisfaction or disappointment via the Internet, they express their views to vent their dissatisfaction or disappointment, and then attack and abuse each other. The irrational elements of the web public opinions is very prominent, but very lack of rational analysis and calm discussions, "group polarization" phenomenon often occur, they has greatly hampered the normal order of the judicial running, and make the online community become the original place of influence social harmony and stability, very detrimental to national peace. Therefore, in recent years the network public opinion "group polarization" has becoming the concern of the government and scholars.
This paper uses a combination method of literature survey and model simulation and empirical research to studies the group polarization phenomenon occurs when the online communities participation in public decision-making. Firstly, analyzes the thesis of the research status about the group polarization of network public opinion, in order to capture the overall theoretical roots, research focus and problems; On this basis, uses the cellular automata model for simulation studies on the spread of the network public opinion, taking into account the vagueness and uncertainty of information, introducing the fuzzy rule-based reasoning for model updating, and then use the Matlab simulation the evolution of individual and group views in network public opinion formation process, and give a detailed analysis of the cause of the group polarization phenomenon; Finally, in order to further validate the correctness of the above theoretical studies in the real environment, this paper collect and statistical analysis the posts about a specific topic from two hot BBS forum, using SPSS to verify the cause of the network community group polarization with the chi-square test and the correlation analysis method, attempt to explore the following aspects:①whether there is the group polarization phenomenon when the Internet users participate in the discussion of public decision-making? To what extent?②Is there a link between the Internet users group polarization phenomenon and its environment (such as the forums or plates characteristics)③Is there a link between the Internet users attitude polarization and their own characteristics(such as the number of posting or the threading)? and so on. Hope to provide effective countermeasures for government to guide netizens rational thinking, reduce the group polarization, and enhance the credibility of the government.
本文采用文献调查+模型仿真+实证研究相结合的方式,对国内网络社群参与公共决策时发生的群体极化现象展开研究。首先,本文对网络舆论群体极化现象研究的国内外现状进行梳理分析,以期从整体上把握国内外相关研究的理论根源、研究热点和存在问题；在此基础上,采用元胞自动机模型对网络舆论的传播现象进行模拟仿真研究,考虑到信息的模糊性和不确定性,引入模糊规则推理进行模型修正,然后用Matlab软件模拟网络舆论形成中个体和群体观点的演化过程,详细分析了群体极化现象产生的原因；最后,为了在现实环境下进一步验证上述理论研究的正确性,本文选取“天涯”和“凯迪”两个BBS论坛,对“二三线城市限购”话题相关帖子进行收集和统计分析,利用SPSS分析软件中的卡方检验法和相关分析法验证网络社群中群体极化的产生原因,尝试探讨几个方面：①网民在参与公共决策讨论中是否存在群体极化现象?程度如何?②网民的群体极化现象与其所处的环境(如论坛或者板块的特性等)是否有联系?③网民个体态度极化与其自身的特征(如发帖数、跟帖数)是否存在联系?等等。以期为政府更好地引导网民理性思维、减少群体极化、增强政府公信力提供对策建议。
In recent years, the network has gradually becoming the main "base" for people to express their emotions and views, but because of the anonymity and randomness about web public opinion, netizens can express their opinions at will and the speeches mixed up. Moreover, China is in a period of social transition, various kinds of social thoughts and values agitate each other, a large number of social problems are not be effectively solved in time, netizens give vent to their dissatisfaction or disappointment via the Internet, they express their views to vent their dissatisfaction or disappointment, and then attack and abuse each other. The irrational elements of the web public opinions is very prominent, but very lack of rational analysis and calm discussions, "group polarization" phenomenon often occur, they has greatly hampered the normal order of the judicial running, and make the online community become the original place of influence social harmony and stability, very detrimental to national peace. Therefore, in recent years the network public opinion "group polarization" has becoming the concern of the government and scholars.
This paper uses a combination method of literature survey and model simulation and empirical research to studies the group polarization phenomenon occurs when the online communities participation in public decision-making. Firstly, analyzes the thesis of the research status about the group polarization of network public opinion, in order to capture the overall theoretical roots, research focus and problems; On this basis, uses the cellular automata model for simulation studies on the spread of the network public opinion, taking into account the vagueness and uncertainty of information, introducing the fuzzy rule-based reasoning for model updating, and then use the Matlab simulation the evolution of individual and group views in network public opinion formation process, and give a detailed analysis of the cause of the group polarization phenomenon; Finally, in order to further validate the correctness of the above theoretical studies in the real environment, this paper collect and statistical analysis the posts about a specific topic from two hot BBS forum, using SPSS to verify the cause of the network community group polarization with the chi-square test and the correlation analysis method, attempt to explore the following aspects:①whether there is the group polarization phenomenon when the Internet users participate in the discussion of public decision-making? To what extent?②Is there a link between the Internet users group polarization phenomenon and its environment (such as the forums or plates characteristics)③Is there a link between the Internet users attitude polarization and their own characteristics(such as the number of posting or the threading)? and so on. Hope to provide effective countermeasures for government to guide netizens rational thinking, reduce the group polarization, and enhance the credibility of the government.
引文
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[2]谭丽华.互联网上涌现的群体智能及其对政府决策的影响[J].公共管理学报,2009.4：3
[3]张仕勇.论网络新闻发言人的素质要求[J].新闻界,2010,2：3
[4]百度百科：群体极化http://baike.baidu.com/view/1226122.htm
[5]凯斯.桑斯坦.网络共和国：网络社会中的民主问题[M].上海人民出版社,2003：47,51
[6]2009年互联网舆情分析报告http://www.alibuybuy.com/posts/13238.html
[7]朱丽峰.论网络民意与政府回应[D].吉林大学硕士学位论文,2010.4：6～7
[8]陶文昭.互联网群体极化评析[J].思想理论教育,2007(9)：9～11
[9]戴维.波普诺.社会学[M].中国人民大学出版社,1999：173
[10]李春.关注网络社区[J].思想、理论、教育.2004.12：9
[11]周福安.公共决策的效率：论社会福利的制度基础[M].海南出版社,2007：26
[12]靳德涛.网络舆论对我国公共决策的影响研究[D].河南大学硕士学位论文,2009.5：17
[13]陈力丹.舆论学——舆论导向研究[M].中国广播电视出版社,1999：11
[14]闫丽.我国网络舆论调控模式初探[D].暨南大学硕士学位论文,2008.4：5
[15]尹航.网络政治参与的现状及双重效应研究[D].南京理工大学硕士学位论文,2010.6：13
[16]李熠煜,熊恩涛.网络人肉搜索引擎中的群体极化效应分析[J].科技创业月刊,2009.6：127～128
[17]刘立红.“人肉搜索”导致网络暴力之成因分析[J].东南传播,2009.1：100～101
[18]徐晶.网络舆论暴力现象解析——以“史上最恶毒后妈”事件为例[D].华中科技大学硕士学位论文,2008.6：4
[19]皮天雷,赵天荣.羊群行为理论：一个研究综述[J].云南财贸学院学院报,2005.4：19～23.
[20]毕鹏程,席酉民.群体决策过程中的群体思维研究[J].管理科学学报,,2002.2：25～4.
[21]唐元义.群决策理论与方法及应用研究[D].武汉理工大学硕士学位论文,2001.11：6
[22]国家自然科学基金委员会网站http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/Porta10/default124.htm
[23]国家社会科学基金网站——全国哲学社会科学规划办公室http://www.npopss～cn.gov.cn/
[24]戴建华,杭家蓓.国内网络舆论的群体极化现象研究述评[J].情报科学,2011(11)：1747～1756
[25]相喜伟,王秋菊.网络舆论传播中群体极化的成因与对策[J].新闻界,2009(10)：94～95
[26]戴松,王小杨.论诱发网络群体极化现象的主观因素[J].科技传播,2010(2)：33～34
[27]欧阳小婷.网民群体极化倾向与网络舆论的非理性[J].现代视听,2009(1)：50～52
[28]刘立红.“人肉搜索”导致网络暴力之成因分析[J]东南传播,2009(1)：100-101.
[29]秦志希,卢何秋.论“人肉搜索”中舆论的群体极化现象[J]新闻与传播评论,2010(4)：207～211
[30]刘晖.网络“悯弱”舆论之现实性考证[J].行政与法,2010(2)：64～68.
[31]昝玉林,许文贤.网络政治参与中的“群体极化”探析[J].思想理论教育,2005(10)：25～29
[32]徐东,刘志阳,徐奉臻.我国证券投资基金羊群行为的实证分析(1999-2004)——基于LSV和时间序列的研究[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报2006(12)：2133-2138
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