高校扩招的经济社会贡献研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,我国高等教育经历了三个发展阶段：1978～1998年,平稳发展阶段；1999-2008年,跨越发展阶段；2009年～现在及今后一段时间,提升发展阶段。1999～2008年的跨越发展阶段具有特殊性,高等院校扩大招生规模的时限短、速度快。因此,有必要抓住这一有利条件,研究扩招对高教成本、高教规模经济、高教发展和国民经济增长的贡献等问题。
以高教成本相关理论研究为基础,采用因素分析和比较研究法,本文从宏观视角研究了扩招对高教成本的贡献。我国高教成本具有上升趋势。扩招使生职比提高,可比口径下生均成本下降,年均递减速度为1.96%。
在1999年扩招分界点引入虚拟变量,本文估计出中国高等教育的柯布一道格拉斯生产函数。模型揭示：改革开放以来,我国高教发展对高教规模经济具有较好的贡献。扩招使高教规模经济效应乘数由扩招前的1.11提升到扩招后的1.76,增加了0.65,提升了58.93%。
本文采用比较研究法研究了扩招对高等教育发展的贡献：高教总规模快速增长；高教毛入学率快速提高；高教人力资源和物质资源规模快速扩大,结构显著改善,利用效率快速提高；高教内涵建设全面和谐。但也存在财政性经费投入不足,负债规模较大,建设和发展存在雷同和“欠账”,大学生就业矛盾凸现等问题。
本文证明了在两部门法模型中引入虚拟变量的科学合理性和实证可行性。这一方法可推广应用于具有阶段性、变弹性时间序列的两部门法情形。
通过分析整理1978-2008年的相关数据,在1999年扩招分界点引入虚拟变量建立两部门法模型,本文得到如下结论：改革开放以来,我国高等教育发展对经济增长具有较好的贡献。高校扩招使贡献值有所下降,使贡献结构发生方向改变,直接贡献由负变正、间接贡献由正变负。扩招前、后,高教经费支出增长1%对经济增长带来的直接贡献、间接贡献和综合贡献的平均值分别由-0.397%变化到0.240%、0.626%变化到-0.101%、0.229%变化到0.138%,综合贡献平均值下降了39.7%。通过建立模型进行预测,高教对经济增长的贡献值在未来10年里将呈现出小幅度、大跨度的波浪式变动趋势,但基本稳定在0.17%-0.20%之间,平均值为0.183%。
将高教贡献值与高教毛入学率时间序列估计出模型得到如下结论：改革开放以来,随着高等教育毛入学率的提高(1%),高教对经济增长的贡献值呈下降趋势(0.0183%)；但稳定贡献为GDP增长0.0015%,长远贡献为每年GDP增长0.0001%。
扩招背景下的高校贷款,高校在银校贷款博弈中具有后动优势,是博弈均衡结果的最终决定者；政府扮演多重角色,是贷款博弈的促成者、受益者和终结负责者。
Higher education in China has experienced three stages of development since its reform and opening up to the outside world:the steady development from 1978 to 1998; the great leap from 1999 to 2008; and the sustainable promotion from 2008 to now. The second period is historically specific in China, as the enrollment of higher education expanded within a very short period. Therefore, it is an urgent task to conduct researches on the contributions of enrollment expansion to the cost of higher education, to the development of higher education, to the economic scale of higher education and to the growth of national economy as well.
Starting from the theoretical concepts related to the costs of higher education, the thesis conducts an investigation into the contributions of enrollment expansion to the costs of higher education from a macro perspective, based on relevant factor analysis and comparative studies. The research shows that enrollment expansion leads to the increase in the costs of higher education, as is revealed in the increasing proportion of college students to teaching staffs. The average cost of college students declines on the comparable basis with a decreasing rate of 1.96 percent.
By adopting the dummy variables of cut-off point in enrollment expansion introduced in 1999, this paper estimates the C-D production function model of Chinese higher education, which reveals that due to the expansion of enrollment, the economic multiplier effect of Chinese higher education has been raised from 1.11 to 1.76, which amounts to an increase of 58.93 percent.
The comparative study of the contributions of enrollment expansion to the development of higher education proves that it has made China rank first in the world in terms of the scale of higher education; that the of Gross Enrollment Rate increases rapidly; that the scale of higher education has been improved to a great extent which is evident both in human and material resources and in structure; and that the internal construction of higher education becomes more and more harmonious. However, it also reveals the problems of the inadequacy of financial incentives, of the expansion of university debts, of the similarities in construction and development, and of the difficulties of students'unemployment.
This paper demonstrates the rationality and feasibility of the Two-sector Model based on the introduction of dummy variable. This approach can also be applied to similar cases with periodical developments and elastic changes.
By analyzing the relevant data from 1978 to 2008 and by adopting the dummy variables of cut-off point in 1999 on the basis of enrollment expansion, the Two-sector model is established on which the following conclusion is made:the development of higher education promotes the growth of national economy since China adopted its reform and opening policy. Nevertheless, the enrollment expansion leads to the decline of contributory value and the change of contributory structure. Its direct contribution turns from negative to positive; and indirect contribution from positive to negative, as the increase of 1% in the expenditure of higher education brings the changes of average value from -0.397% to 0.240% in direct contribution, from 0.626% to-0.101% in indirect contribution, and from 0.229 to 0.138% in comprehensive contribution. From this model, it can be predicted that the contributory value in the next decade will be featured with a wave-like development with small range and long span, varying from 0.17% to 0.20% with an average value of 0.183%.
Based on the model established on the time series analysis of the relation between the contributory value of higher education and the Gross Enrollment Rate, the following conclusions can be made:the increase of the Gross Enrollment Rate (1%) leads to the decline of contributory value (0.0183%); however its steady contribution is the increase of 0.0015% in GDP, and its long-term contribution 0.0001% in GDP per year.
To sum up, universities take late-mover advantages in the game of bank-university loan and they are the decision-maker of Game Equilibrium as well. Government plays multiple roles in the Game due to the fact that as the leader as well as the beneficiary, government is ultimately responsible for this game.
以高教成本相关理论研究为基础,采用因素分析和比较研究法,本文从宏观视角研究了扩招对高教成本的贡献。我国高教成本具有上升趋势。扩招使生职比提高,可比口径下生均成本下降,年均递减速度为1.96%。
在1999年扩招分界点引入虚拟变量,本文估计出中国高等教育的柯布一道格拉斯生产函数。模型揭示：改革开放以来,我国高教发展对高教规模经济具有较好的贡献。扩招使高教规模经济效应乘数由扩招前的1.11提升到扩招后的1.76,增加了0.65,提升了58.93%。
本文采用比较研究法研究了扩招对高等教育发展的贡献：高教总规模快速增长；高教毛入学率快速提高；高教人力资源和物质资源规模快速扩大,结构显著改善,利用效率快速提高；高教内涵建设全面和谐。但也存在财政性经费投入不足,负债规模较大,建设和发展存在雷同和“欠账”,大学生就业矛盾凸现等问题。
本文证明了在两部门法模型中引入虚拟变量的科学合理性和实证可行性。这一方法可推广应用于具有阶段性、变弹性时间序列的两部门法情形。
通过分析整理1978-2008年的相关数据,在1999年扩招分界点引入虚拟变量建立两部门法模型,本文得到如下结论：改革开放以来,我国高等教育发展对经济增长具有较好的贡献。高校扩招使贡献值有所下降,使贡献结构发生方向改变,直接贡献由负变正、间接贡献由正变负。扩招前、后,高教经费支出增长1%对经济增长带来的直接贡献、间接贡献和综合贡献的平均值分别由-0.397%变化到0.240%、0.626%变化到-0.101%、0.229%变化到0.138%,综合贡献平均值下降了39.7%。通过建立模型进行预测,高教对经济增长的贡献值在未来10年里将呈现出小幅度、大跨度的波浪式变动趋势,但基本稳定在0.17%-0.20%之间,平均值为0.183%。
将高教贡献值与高教毛入学率时间序列估计出模型得到如下结论：改革开放以来,随着高等教育毛入学率的提高(1%),高教对经济增长的贡献值呈下降趋势(0.0183%)；但稳定贡献为GDP增长0.0015%,长远贡献为每年GDP增长0.0001%。
扩招背景下的高校贷款,高校在银校贷款博弈中具有后动优势,是博弈均衡结果的最终决定者；政府扮演多重角色,是贷款博弈的促成者、受益者和终结负责者。
Higher education in China has experienced three stages of development since its reform and opening up to the outside world:the steady development from 1978 to 1998; the great leap from 1999 to 2008; and the sustainable promotion from 2008 to now. The second period is historically specific in China, as the enrollment of higher education expanded within a very short period. Therefore, it is an urgent task to conduct researches on the contributions of enrollment expansion to the cost of higher education, to the development of higher education, to the economic scale of higher education and to the growth of national economy as well.
Starting from the theoretical concepts related to the costs of higher education, the thesis conducts an investigation into the contributions of enrollment expansion to the costs of higher education from a macro perspective, based on relevant factor analysis and comparative studies. The research shows that enrollment expansion leads to the increase in the costs of higher education, as is revealed in the increasing proportion of college students to teaching staffs. The average cost of college students declines on the comparable basis with a decreasing rate of 1.96 percent.
By adopting the dummy variables of cut-off point in enrollment expansion introduced in 1999, this paper estimates the C-D production function model of Chinese higher education, which reveals that due to the expansion of enrollment, the economic multiplier effect of Chinese higher education has been raised from 1.11 to 1.76, which amounts to an increase of 58.93 percent.
The comparative study of the contributions of enrollment expansion to the development of higher education proves that it has made China rank first in the world in terms of the scale of higher education; that the of Gross Enrollment Rate increases rapidly; that the scale of higher education has been improved to a great extent which is evident both in human and material resources and in structure; and that the internal construction of higher education becomes more and more harmonious. However, it also reveals the problems of the inadequacy of financial incentives, of the expansion of university debts, of the similarities in construction and development, and of the difficulties of students'unemployment.
This paper demonstrates the rationality and feasibility of the Two-sector Model based on the introduction of dummy variable. This approach can also be applied to similar cases with periodical developments and elastic changes.
By analyzing the relevant data from 1978 to 2008 and by adopting the dummy variables of cut-off point in 1999 on the basis of enrollment expansion, the Two-sector model is established on which the following conclusion is made:the development of higher education promotes the growth of national economy since China adopted its reform and opening policy. Nevertheless, the enrollment expansion leads to the decline of contributory value and the change of contributory structure. Its direct contribution turns from negative to positive; and indirect contribution from positive to negative, as the increase of 1% in the expenditure of higher education brings the changes of average value from -0.397% to 0.240% in direct contribution, from 0.626% to-0.101% in indirect contribution, and from 0.229 to 0.138% in comprehensive contribution. From this model, it can be predicted that the contributory value in the next decade will be featured with a wave-like development with small range and long span, varying from 0.17% to 0.20% with an average value of 0.183%.
Based on the model established on the time series analysis of the relation between the contributory value of higher education and the Gross Enrollment Rate, the following conclusions can be made:the increase of the Gross Enrollment Rate (1%) leads to the decline of contributory value (0.0183%); however its steady contribution is the increase of 0.0015% in GDP, and its long-term contribution 0.0001% in GDP per year.
To sum up, universities take late-mover advantages in the game of bank-university loan and they are the decision-maker of Game Equilibrium as well. Government plays multiple roles in the Game due to the fact that as the leader as well as the beneficiary, government is ultimately responsible for this game.
引文
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