中国虚拟经济发展对货币政策的影响研究
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摘要
本文运用规范研究与实证研究相结合、简单比较与计量经济相配合的研究方法，分析虚拟经济发展对我国货币政策的影响，试图建立一个较为完整的分析框架，以求为我国虚拟经济与货币政策的研究起到抛砖引玉的作用。
论文首先在综述国内学者对虚拟经济含义的基础上界定虚拟经济范畴，并阐明研究虚拟经济对货币政策影响的必要性，在此基础上，构建虚拟经济发展环境下中国货币需求函数模型；其次，运用ADF检验、Johansen协整检验等方法分析虚拟经济发展对货币供给量的影响。第三，运用OLS、ADF检验、Johansen协整检验等现代计量经济方法，从财富效应、投资效应和信贷传导渠道有效性三个方面分析我国虚拟经济发展对货币政策传导机制的效应。第四，运用Granger因果检验方法对我国目前货币政策中介目标有效性进行实证分析，在此基础上分析虚拟经济环境下的我国货币政策中介目标未来取向。第五，实证分析我国虚拟经济发展对货币政策最终目标的影响。最后，对本文进行了总结和展望。
通过建立虚拟经济发展环境下的中国货币需求函数，发现虚拟经济发展对M_1、M_2层次货币需求均有显著性影响。研究结果表明，虚拟经济与M_0、M_1、M_2层次供给量呈正相关，但弹性系数不同；目前货币供给量的可测性、相关性、可控性仍较好，在今后较长一段时期内，我国仍可坚持货币供给量这一中介目标，同时中央银行可将汇率和利率作为货币政策中介目标的参考指标。从货币政策传导机制的影响看，在长期内虚拟经济发展有正的财富效应，且相对来说并不微弱，同时也具有比较稳定的正向投资效应，并且虚拟经济发展可成为货币政策传导的另一渠道。研究结果还显示，我国虚拟经济发展与物价水平存在稳定的反方向关系，虚拟经济总量的增加将促进经济增长。
This dissertation analyses the impact of fictitious economy development on monetary policy by applying normative and empirical analysis at the base of the macroeconomic theory, monetary theory and fictitious economy theory ,sets up a comparatively analysis frame in order to play a reference role.
Firstly, at the base of previous researches about the defines of the fictitious economy, the thesis explains the necessary to study fictitious economy and monetary policy in China and Constructs China's money demand function model for fictitious economy development. Secondly, analyses the impact of fictitious economy development on money supply by ADF test and Johansen cointegration test. Thirdly, we analyze the monetary policy transmission mechanism effects of fictitious economy development from the wealth effect, investment effect and credit transmission channel effect by OLS, ADF test and Johansen cointegration test methods. Next, analyzes the effect of monetary policy intermediate goals by Granger causality test methods, and suggests the future intermediate goals of monetary policy. At last, analyzes empirically the impact of fictitious economy development on the ultimate goal of monetary policy.
From the China's money demand function model, it can be concluded that fictitiouseconomy development has distinct impact on M_1 and M_2 ,and the impact of fictitious economy development on money supply are positively correlated with M_0 M_1 M_2 ,but the elasticity coefficients are different. At the background of fictitiouseconomy's expanding, China would sustain take the money supply as the intermediary target in the next period of time. At the same time, central bank can take exchange rate and interest rate as reference for intermediary target. From the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, fictitious economy development has positively wealth effect which is not weakness, and has positively investment effect. From the credit channel, the value added to gross industrial output has a stable plus relationship with fictitious economy development. So the development of fictitious economy has little effect on credit channel of monetary policy, but it can be another channel of monetary policy. At last, China fictitious economy development has a stable negative relationship with price level, and the increasing of aggregate of fictitious economy will promote economy growth.
论文首先在综述国内学者对虚拟经济含义的基础上界定虚拟经济范畴，并阐明研究虚拟经济对货币政策影响的必要性，在此基础上，构建虚拟经济发展环境下中国货币需求函数模型；其次，运用ADF检验、Johansen协整检验等方法分析虚拟经济发展对货币供给量的影响。第三，运用OLS、ADF检验、Johansen协整检验等现代计量经济方法，从财富效应、投资效应和信贷传导渠道有效性三个方面分析我国虚拟经济发展对货币政策传导机制的效应。第四，运用Granger因果检验方法对我国目前货币政策中介目标有效性进行实证分析，在此基础上分析虚拟经济环境下的我国货币政策中介目标未来取向。第五，实证分析我国虚拟经济发展对货币政策最终目标的影响。最后，对本文进行了总结和展望。
通过建立虚拟经济发展环境下的中国货币需求函数，发现虚拟经济发展对M_1、M_2层次货币需求均有显著性影响。研究结果表明，虚拟经济与M_0、M_1、M_2层次供给量呈正相关，但弹性系数不同；目前货币供给量的可测性、相关性、可控性仍较好，在今后较长一段时期内，我国仍可坚持货币供给量这一中介目标，同时中央银行可将汇率和利率作为货币政策中介目标的参考指标。从货币政策传导机制的影响看，在长期内虚拟经济发展有正的财富效应，且相对来说并不微弱，同时也具有比较稳定的正向投资效应，并且虚拟经济发展可成为货币政策传导的另一渠道。研究结果还显示，我国虚拟经济发展与物价水平存在稳定的反方向关系，虚拟经济总量的增加将促进经济增长。
This dissertation analyses the impact of fictitious economy development on monetary policy by applying normative and empirical analysis at the base of the macroeconomic theory, monetary theory and fictitious economy theory ,sets up a comparatively analysis frame in order to play a reference role.
Firstly, at the base of previous researches about the defines of the fictitious economy, the thesis explains the necessary to study fictitious economy and monetary policy in China and Constructs China's money demand function model for fictitious economy development. Secondly, analyses the impact of fictitious economy development on money supply by ADF test and Johansen cointegration test. Thirdly, we analyze the monetary policy transmission mechanism effects of fictitious economy development from the wealth effect, investment effect and credit transmission channel effect by OLS, ADF test and Johansen cointegration test methods. Next, analyzes the effect of monetary policy intermediate goals by Granger causality test methods, and suggests the future intermediate goals of monetary policy. At last, analyzes empirically the impact of fictitious economy development on the ultimate goal of monetary policy.
From the China's money demand function model, it can be concluded that fictitiouseconomy development has distinct impact on M_1 and M_2 ,and the impact of fictitious economy development on money supply are positively correlated with M_0 M_1 M_2 ,but the elasticity coefficients are different. At the background of fictitiouseconomy's expanding, China would sustain take the money supply as the intermediary target in the next period of time. At the same time, central bank can take exchange rate and interest rate as reference for intermediary target. From the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, fictitious economy development has positively wealth effect which is not weakness, and has positively investment effect. From the credit channel, the value added to gross industrial output has a stable plus relationship with fictitious economy development. So the development of fictitious economy has little effect on credit channel of monetary policy, but it can be another channel of monetary policy. At last, China fictitious economy development has a stable negative relationship with price level, and the increasing of aggregate of fictitious economy will promote economy growth.
引文
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