煤电价格协调机制研究
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摘要
在世界能源结构中,煤炭一直处于非常重要的地位,尤其我国资源禀赋决定了我国能源结构以煤为主,而且短期内不会发生改变。我国的电力工业以燃煤火电为主,煤炭行业的最大用户是电力企业,而且,煤炭与电力都是投资大,周期长的基础产业,煤炭与电力的协同关系是不可回避的,促进煤电的长远协调发展就显得尤为重要,而其价格的协调又是其关键所在。
近年来,随着经济的快速稳定发展,电力需求高速增长,对煤炭供给造成很大压力。为探讨煤电价格的协调,提供解决煤电矛盾思路,本文首先收集并分析了我国煤电价格相关历年数据,对煤电供给、煤电弹性、煤电价格影响因素及对煤电价格的传导影响进行了探讨；其次采用最新的2009年10月出版的2007年投入产出表作为基础数据的来源,结合中国统计年鉴、中国财政年鉴、中国金融统计年鉴、资金流量表、国际收支平衡表、等,编制了2007年社会核算矩阵,突出了数据的时效性,在此基础上构建了煤电价格协调的CGE模型,并进行了仿真模拟。最后,结合本文分析结果以及目前我国国情、煤电行业的特殊性,笔者认为煤电价格协调关键在于电力行业,电力结构调整是解决煤电价格冲突的根本出路。而在我国能源结构没有彻底转变之前,电力价格机制目前必须是在政府指导下的电力市场化机制,体现政策性,而不是市场性。同时建议煤电联动的比例需要进行调整,在电力价格连续上涨到一定幅度则考虑到社会承受力,电价对煤价的联动停滞,此时政府应该出台相应措施,通过财政补贴等形式缓解电企由于煤炭价格上涨带来的成本压力。煤电价格协调关系到整个国民经济的健康发展,是一个长期的过程,真正的煤电价格协调依赖于煤电价格机制的完善。
In the world energy structure, the coal has been playing a very important role. Especially China's resource endowments determine the coal-dominated energy structure in China, which will not change in the short term. The coal-fired thermal power is the main part of China's power structure, and the power companies is the the largest user of the coal industries, and the coal and power industries both are the great investment, long-term and basic industries, so the synergy between coal and electricity can not be avoided, and it is very important that promoting the coordinated development in the long term between the coal and the power, and the price coordination is the key part.
In recent years, with the rapid and stable development of economy, electricity demand growth causes a lot of pressure on coal supplies. To explore the coordination of coal price and electricity price, and provide ideas to solve the contradiction between coal and electricity, this thesis collects and analysis the relevant historical data on China's coal price and electricity price, and discusses the demand and supply, flexibility, price factors, price transmission of coal and electricity. Moreover based on the latest 2007 input-output table published in 2009 October, and China statistical yearbood, China financial yeabook,flow of funds,balance of payments,and so on, this thesis draws up the 2007 social accounting matrix, highlighting the timeliness of data. On this basis of SAM, the thesis builds the CGE model on the coal and electricity price coordination, and gives the simulation.The thesis draw the conclusion:the power industry is the key of the coordination between coal price and electricity price, the electricity restructuring is the fundamental way, and the electricity price mechanism must obey the government guide before China's energy structure not completely change, reflecting the policy, not marketability. The thesis also proposes the linkage ratio between coal price and electricity price need to be adjusted.The linkage between coal price and electricity price will stagnate when the electricity price increase to a certain extent, considering the social tolerance of electricity price. Then the government should formulate corresponding measures to reduce the cost pressure of the power companies because of the coal price increasing, through the government financial subsidies and other forms. The price coordination between coal and electricity is very important for the national economy healthy development, and is a long process. The real price coordination between coal and electricity will depend on the perfect price mechanism of coal and electricity
近年来,随着经济的快速稳定发展,电力需求高速增长,对煤炭供给造成很大压力。为探讨煤电价格的协调,提供解决煤电矛盾思路,本文首先收集并分析了我国煤电价格相关历年数据,对煤电供给、煤电弹性、煤电价格影响因素及对煤电价格的传导影响进行了探讨；其次采用最新的2009年10月出版的2007年投入产出表作为基础数据的来源,结合中国统计年鉴、中国财政年鉴、中国金融统计年鉴、资金流量表、国际收支平衡表、等,编制了2007年社会核算矩阵,突出了数据的时效性,在此基础上构建了煤电价格协调的CGE模型,并进行了仿真模拟。最后,结合本文分析结果以及目前我国国情、煤电行业的特殊性,笔者认为煤电价格协调关键在于电力行业,电力结构调整是解决煤电价格冲突的根本出路。而在我国能源结构没有彻底转变之前,电力价格机制目前必须是在政府指导下的电力市场化机制,体现政策性,而不是市场性。同时建议煤电联动的比例需要进行调整,在电力价格连续上涨到一定幅度则考虑到社会承受力,电价对煤价的联动停滞,此时政府应该出台相应措施,通过财政补贴等形式缓解电企由于煤炭价格上涨带来的成本压力。煤电价格协调关系到整个国民经济的健康发展,是一个长期的过程,真正的煤电价格协调依赖于煤电价格机制的完善。
In the world energy structure, the coal has been playing a very important role. Especially China's resource endowments determine the coal-dominated energy structure in China, which will not change in the short term. The coal-fired thermal power is the main part of China's power structure, and the power companies is the the largest user of the coal industries, and the coal and power industries both are the great investment, long-term and basic industries, so the synergy between coal and electricity can not be avoided, and it is very important that promoting the coordinated development in the long term between the coal and the power, and the price coordination is the key part.
In recent years, with the rapid and stable development of economy, electricity demand growth causes a lot of pressure on coal supplies. To explore the coordination of coal price and electricity price, and provide ideas to solve the contradiction between coal and electricity, this thesis collects and analysis the relevant historical data on China's coal price and electricity price, and discusses the demand and supply, flexibility, price factors, price transmission of coal and electricity. Moreover based on the latest 2007 input-output table published in 2009 October, and China statistical yearbood, China financial yeabook,flow of funds,balance of payments,and so on, this thesis draws up the 2007 social accounting matrix, highlighting the timeliness of data. On this basis of SAM, the thesis builds the CGE model on the coal and electricity price coordination, and gives the simulation.The thesis draw the conclusion:the power industry is the key of the coordination between coal price and electricity price, the electricity restructuring is the fundamental way, and the electricity price mechanism must obey the government guide before China's energy structure not completely change, reflecting the policy, not marketability. The thesis also proposes the linkage ratio between coal price and electricity price need to be adjusted.The linkage between coal price and electricity price will stagnate when the electricity price increase to a certain extent, considering the social tolerance of electricity price. Then the government should formulate corresponding measures to reduce the cost pressure of the power companies because of the coal price increasing, through the government financial subsidies and other forms. The price coordination between coal and electricity is very important for the national economy healthy development, and is a long process. The real price coordination between coal and electricity will depend on the perfect price mechanism of coal and electricity
引文
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