农村劳动力开发与中国经济增长
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摘要
农村劳动力开发与经济增长是当前中国经济管理领域研究的热点问题。我们在大量检索的基础上,基于中国国情,以实证分析为主,对中国农村劳动力开发与经济增长之间关系进行了系统研究。论文首先从中国农村劳动力的分布特征入手,从产业角度、行业角度、区域角度进行逐步分析,并就农村劳动力分布与经济增长之间的关系进行了格兰杰因果检验。检验的结果表明,由于农村劳动力的转移引起的分布结构的变化促进了中国的经济增长,但是,目前中国经济增长的水平还不足以构成中国农村劳动力转移的决定因素。接下来,基于菲德两部门模型,以中国农村劳动力对经济增长的贡献为切入点,测算出中国农村劳动力对经济增长起到了微弱的正向效应,但是,也存在着农村劳动力的边际生产力远远低于城镇劳动力的现实,即农村劳动力部门对城镇劳动力部门的外溢效应为负向,同时,存在着明显的城镇劳动力对农村劳动力的就业挤兑现象。负向外溢效应是农村富余劳动力大量存在的必然结果,于是论文接下来对中国农村富余劳动力的数量及影响因素、富余劳动力转移动因等问题,通过构建多元因子模型进行量化分析。实证结果表明:农村人力资本存量少且水平低是制约中国农村劳动力转移,造成大量农村富余劳动力存在的根本原因。结合人力资本相关知识和卢卡斯人力资本增长模型,论文在Lucas模型原理指导下,结合中国实际情况,通过构建Lucas-Pest模型,对中国农村人力资本的外部性进行了研究。实证结果表明中国农村人力资本对经济增长产生了负的外部性,负的溢出效应和负的外部性为中国开发农村劳动力资源提供了理论支持。接下来,论文基于拉姆齐跨期消费模型,将中国农村人力资本积累放入叠代分析框架中,测算出最优农村人力资本积累条件下的中国未来经济增长模拟值。最后,在各章分析结果的基础上,论文设计出适合中国国情的“三位一体”农村劳动力开发对策体系。
The relation between rural labor development and economic growth is hot research problem in economy and management realm in our country currently. Based on a great deal of inspectional foundation and state of china, using substantial evidence analysis, the thesis carries on a system analysis between rural labor development and economic growth.
Firstly, the thesis starts research from four angles: industry、profession、district etc , then adopts Granger Causality Test in studing the relation between distribution characteristic of rural labor and economic growth, the result is transfering of rural labor promotes econumic growth ,but economic growth is not the unique decision factor in promoting the transfering of rural labor.
Secondly, based on Feder Two Section Model and distribution effect, the thesis calculates small positive effect which rural labor produces to economic growth, but , another result which marginal production of rural labor is far more lower than city labor exists, that is, rural labor section produces a negative exterior to city labor, forthermore , the phenomenon which rural labor is crowded with cith labor in labor market also exists obviously. Negative exterior is an inevitable result becausing of a great deal of rural surplus labor existing.
Thirdly, the thesis builds one Diverse Factor Model in order to calculate surplus labor quantity and affect factor, affect factor of rural labor transfer.The result expresses it is the basic factor to obstruct rural lador transfer that rural human capital stocks and level is little and low. Fourthly, combining theory of human capital and Lucas Human Capital Model,the thesis builds a Lucas Pest Model in order to analysis the exterior of rural human capital in china. we gets a conclusion of negative exterior,which provides a strong standpoint with making policy on development of rural labor.
Then, absorbing intertemporal consumption from Ramsey Cass Koopmans model and overlapping generation theory, the thesis imitates the economic growth path of china in the future under the optimal rural human capital backlog condition.
Lastly, after comprehensing analysis of each chapter , the thesis designs a Christian Trinity development strategy including three parts beening included with individual、family and society,which is more fit for china state.
The relation between rural labor development and economic growth is hot research problem in economy and management realm in our country currently. Based on a great deal of inspectional foundation and state of china, using substantial evidence analysis, the thesis carries on a system analysis between rural labor development and economic growth.
Firstly, the thesis starts research from four angles: industry、profession、district etc , then adopts Granger Causality Test in studing the relation between distribution characteristic of rural labor and economic growth, the result is transfering of rural labor promotes econumic growth ,but economic growth is not the unique decision factor in promoting the transfering of rural labor.
Secondly, based on Feder Two Section Model and distribution effect, the thesis calculates small positive effect which rural labor produces to economic growth, but , another result which marginal production of rural labor is far more lower than city labor exists, that is, rural labor section produces a negative exterior to city labor, forthermore , the phenomenon which rural labor is crowded with cith labor in labor market also exists obviously. Negative exterior is an inevitable result becausing of a great deal of rural surplus labor existing.
Thirdly, the thesis builds one Diverse Factor Model in order to calculate surplus labor quantity and affect factor, affect factor of rural labor transfer.The result expresses it is the basic factor to obstruct rural lador transfer that rural human capital stocks and level is little and low. Fourthly, combining theory of human capital and Lucas Human Capital Model,the thesis builds a Lucas Pest Model in order to analysis the exterior of rural human capital in china. we gets a conclusion of negative exterior,which provides a strong standpoint with making policy on development of rural labor.
Then, absorbing intertemporal consumption from Ramsey Cass Koopmans model and overlapping generation theory, the thesis imitates the economic growth path of china in the future under the optimal rural human capital backlog condition.
Lastly, after comprehensing analysis of each chapter , the thesis designs a Christian Trinity development strategy including three parts beening included with individual、family and society,which is more fit for china state.
引文
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