太阳能居住建筑采暖系统优化决策及市场化推广研究
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摘要
在整个能源消耗系统中,建筑物既是能源的主要消耗者,又是环境污染的主要排放源,建筑能耗问题已成为普遍关注的焦点。解决建筑能耗问题的一项重要举措,就是要开发利用可再生能源、减少常规能源的消耗。
本文以太阳能居住建筑及其采暖系统为研究对象,在文献研究和本基金项目团队已取得的相关技术研究成果的基础上,以能源-经济-环境一体化、技术经济学、公共经济学等理论为指导,以建筑节能为主线,以被动式太阳能利用为基础,以太阳能居住建筑的市场化推广应用为目标,对新增采暖区(城市)居住建筑采暖能源需求、被动式太阳能居住建筑采暖方式优化决策、被动式太阳能采暖系统和主被动结合的整体太阳能采暖系统优化决策、太阳能居住建筑市场化推广利益主体行为博弈和太阳能居住建筑增量成本分摊等进行了深入系统的分析与研究,并提出了太阳能居住建筑市场化推广的政策建议。本文的研究思路和相关成果不仅对于太阳能居住建筑采暖决策具有重要的理论意义和参考价值,而且对于节约采暖运行成本,提高建筑热环境质量等具有现实意义和实用价值。
本文的主要研究思路与成果如下：
(1)本文针对新增采暖区没有采暖能源统计数据,需求预测困难的实际情况,在深入分析居住建筑采暖能源需求影响因素的基础上,运用多元回归分析,构建了参照区(城市)居住建筑采暖能源需求预测模型,进而通过引入气候、建筑体形系数、建筑朝向等修正系数,构建了新增采暖区(城市)居住建筑采暖能源需求预测模型。并以拉萨市为例,按设定的住宅集中供热面积占居住总面积的不同比例,分别预测了采暖能源需求量。另外,从节能的角度,提出了优化被动式建筑设计和优化选择主动采暖系统等居住建筑采暖能源节约的主要技术路径。
(2)从系统论的角度出发,根据可持续发展理论和全寿命周期评价理论,在3E系统的基础上,提出了被动式太阳能居住建筑采暖系统(采暖方式)的“全寿命周期-3E+S+T”三维理论评价模型；从能源、经济、环境、社会和技术等方面深入分析了影响采暖方式选择的影响因素,并在此基础上,优化构建了被动式太阳能居住建筑采暖方式综合评价指标体系；进而建立了基于改进AHP和熵技术组合权重的灰色关联度采暖方式决策模型。同时,以拉萨典型的被动式太阳能居住建筑为例进行实证研究,得出了当地最适宜的被动式太阳能居住建筑的采暖方式。
(3)在分析建筑热平衡和太阳能采暖系统关系的基础上,从技术经济和节能的角度,深入分析了建筑物屋面、外墙、外窗等六个围护结构变量及其属性,运用0-1规划思想引入围护结构决策变量,通过分析围护结构组合做法与节能率和单方造价增加总额之间的关系,以一定节能率下围护结构组合做法的单方造价增加总额最低为目标,构建了被动式太阳能采暖系统优化模型,通过拟合两者函数关系曲线确定了被动式太阳能采暖系统的经济节能率区间；并在此基础上,构建了主被动结合的太阳能采暖系统整体优化模型,同样确定了整体太阳能采暖系统的经济节能率区间。同时,本文还专门对优化模型进行了算法设计,并编写了基于Dve-Cpp开发软件环境的计算机程序。另外,以拉萨典型居住建筑作为对比房,对新建居住建筑太阳能采暖系统进行了实证研究,研究为拉萨及类似地区建筑节能设计标准和配套标准图集的编制提供了依据。
(4)从公共经济学的视角,将太阳能居住建筑界定为混合产品中的准公共产品,并探讨了其外部性特征。运用动态博弈的理论和方法,构建了中央与地方政府关于财政补贴的完全信息动态博弈模型,以及政府与购房者关于太阳能居住建筑增量成本分摊的不完全信息动态博弈模型。以拉萨为例,引入意愿调查法,从购房者角度对太阳能居住建筑增量成本的分摊进行了初步设计。另外,在明确政府角色定位的基础上,从法律法规、标准规范、政府合作机制、财税激励政策、能效标识、专业服务市场、技术创新、宣传教育、国际合作等方面提出了具体的实施建议。
本研究得到国家自然科学基金重点项目“西藏高原节能居住建筑体系研究”(编号50638040)的资助。
In the entire system of energy consumption, buildings are not only the primal consumer of energy but the major releaser of environmental pollutants. Consequently energy consumption by buildings has now emerged as the focus of universal social concern. One of the cardinal ways for curbing energy consumption by buildings lies both in development and exploitation of renewable energy and in reduction of conventional energy consumption.
This paper focuses on analyzing aspects of residential building and its heating system by taking advantage of both relevant literature available and pertinent technological findings obtained by the team engaged in this research project which is funded by the Foundation. The study, as is illustrated in this paper, has been carried on upon the basis of such theoretic propositions as the theory of integration of the three factors of energy, economy, and environment, technical economics, and public economics. The goal of the said study consists in representing methods for achieving reduced residential building's energy consumption-methods that would be based primarily on a passive utilization of solar energy in a residential building. This paper is also aimed at hashing out the optimal ways for the maximal marketing of solar residential buildings. As a result, this paper touches in detail upon subjects such as (1) the amount of energy required for heating in residential buildings of the newly sprawling region (urban), (2) the ways to optimize the heating modes of a passive solar residential building, (3) the optimization of both the passive solar-heating system and the overall solar-heating system in which are combined the passive solar-heating subsystem and the active solar-heating subsystem, (4) the games going on among the interest-subjects involved in market-oriented promotion of solar residential buildings, and (5) the issue of solar residential building's incremental cost sharing. In addition, in this paper is offered a proposal which is expected to have some bearing on the government's decision in relation to market-oriented promotion of solar residential buildings. It is believed that both the rationale upon which this paper is based and the findings presented in this paper can be not only of significant theoretic and referential value in terms of optimization of utilization of solar energy for residential building but also of substantially pragmatic value in terms of both optimal reduction of heating cost of a residential building and betterment of thermal efficiency in a residential building.
Below are presented in a nutshell the rationale followed by and the findings achieved in this paper:
(1) In this paper is introduced-on the basis of a detailed analysis of factors that can markedly inform the amount of energy required for heating a residential building-the method of "multiple regressions", for the practical situation that there is no heating energy statistical data and it is difficult to predict (forecast) heating energy demand in newly added heating region. And by dint of creating a prognostic of the amount of energy required for heating residential buildings in a given referential area and also by dint of taking into consideration such modifying parameters as climatic coefficient, building shape coefficient, building-orientation coefficient, this paper is successful in establishing a model exclusively for predicting the amount of energy required for heating residential buildings in a newly sprawling suburban area. In this paper, Lhasa, Tibet is cited as an example. The percentages of different given districts in relation to the total residential area in Lhasa are calculated so that different amounts of energy required for effecting central heating of the residential buildings in any of the given districts specified above can be thus ascertained. Moreover in this paper are also elaborated the main technological expedients, by which optimization-exactly for the purpose of reducing energy consumption resulting from residential-quarters heating-of not only the passive solar-heating system in a residential building but also the active solar-heating system in a residential building can be attained.
(2) In this paper is propounded the formula of "full life-cycle-3E+S+T" which, being duly termed "a 3-dimensional-theorem-based model of evaluation", can well serve as a means for appraising the solar-heating system (or the heating modes) a residential building is equipped with. Underlying such an evaluative model, which is patterned after the theory of 3E system, are such propositions as are derived from systematology, the theory of sustainable development, and the theory of full-life-cycle assessment. Moreover in this paper is presented an in-depth study of such diverse factors, which can have some bearing upon an architect's attempt at opting for a certain type of solar-heating system, as energy resource, economic condition, environment, social circumstances, and technological feasibility. And upon the basis of such an in-depth study is formulated in this paper "the system of indices for attaining a comprehensive assessment of thermal efficiency of a passive solar-heating device in a residential building. With the establishment of the aforesaid system of indices for attaining a comprehensive assessment of thermal efficiency, can be formulated a model of decision-making with regard to the optimization of heating device engineered on the basis of an improved AHP and gray correlation degree with entropy technology portfolio weights. Furthermore In order to test the validity of propositions specified in this paper, the typical passive solar-heating system used in an average residential building in Lhasa has been used as an object in our empirical study. From such an empirical study has been obtained the optimal type of passive solar-heating device for an average residential building in Lhasa.
(3) On the basis of the findings from a study made of the relationship between building thermal equilibrium and solar heating systems has been conducted-from the perspectives of technical economy and energy conservation-an in-depth analysis of (a) the variables of a building's six building envelopes including roofs, exterior walls, exterior widows, etc. and (b) the properties of these variables. Thus by following the guidance of the 0-1 programming ideas, this paper is successful in setting forth the decision-making variables in relation to building envelopes. As a result of the analysis made by us of the relationship between "the folio approach plus the energy-saving rate" and "the unilateral increase in the total cost", is thus set forth in this paper an optimized model of passive solar heating system. The motive for formulating such an optimized model is a desire not only to attain a unilateral increase in the total cost arising from the adoption of the "envelope portfolio approach" when a certain energy-saving rate stays in the minimum but to determine the economical energy-saving-rate interval of a certain passive solar-heating system by means of bringing about a coincidence between the function curves of both the "envelope portfolio approach" and a certain energy-saving rate. And on this basis, an entire optimization model can be built out of a combined system of active solar-heating apparatus and passive solar-heating apparatus. Accordingly an economical energy-saving rate interval can thus be determined for the entire solar heating system. Furthermore in this paper are advanced not only the resultant algorithm for the optimization models specified above but a new computer program which has been developed exclusively for use in the environment of such computer programs as "Dve-Cpp".
In addition, an empirical study has been carried out for the purpose of fathoming the validity of the above-mentioned solar-heating systems in a new residential building. In the empirical study, a typical residential building in Lhasa has been used to serve as a contrast. Findings from such an empirical study can serve as a basis for the creation in the future of atlas of both standardized designs of residential building's energy-saving system and standardized designs for a residential building's associated structures in not only Lhasa but areas which are meteorologically similar to Lhasa.
(4) A definition offered in this paper from the perspective of public economics is this:A solar residential building should be termed-in the midst of mixed products-as a quasi-public product. Externality of a solar residential building are also delved into in this paper. In order to create not only a "complete information-dynamic game model" in the field of financial subsidy which involves both the Central Government and local governments but also an "incomplete information-dynamic game model" in the field of incremental cost-sharing which involves both local governments and buyers of solar residential buildings, the theory of dynamic game and methods derived therefrom have been duly adopted. Moreover the "contingent valuation method" has been used in our study which was conducted in Lhasa and applied there expressly from the standpoint of an average buyer of a solar residential building for the purpose of producing a tentative formula which is intended for ironing out problems that may arise from a transaction of incremental cost-sharing. Furthermore, having specifically defined the role to be played by a local government in the move to promote the construction of solar residential building, this paper proceeds to offer a relevant proposals that touch upon a very wide range of fields such as stature, ordinance, standard, inter-departmental cooperation-oriented mechanisms, tax incentive, energy efficiency labeling, specialized-service market, technological innovation, education, international cooperation.
Our study which springs from the research project bearing the name of "energy-efficient residential building system in the Tibetan plateau" and gives birth to this paper is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
本文以太阳能居住建筑及其采暖系统为研究对象,在文献研究和本基金项目团队已取得的相关技术研究成果的基础上,以能源-经济-环境一体化、技术经济学、公共经济学等理论为指导,以建筑节能为主线,以被动式太阳能利用为基础,以太阳能居住建筑的市场化推广应用为目标,对新增采暖区(城市)居住建筑采暖能源需求、被动式太阳能居住建筑采暖方式优化决策、被动式太阳能采暖系统和主被动结合的整体太阳能采暖系统优化决策、太阳能居住建筑市场化推广利益主体行为博弈和太阳能居住建筑增量成本分摊等进行了深入系统的分析与研究,并提出了太阳能居住建筑市场化推广的政策建议。本文的研究思路和相关成果不仅对于太阳能居住建筑采暖决策具有重要的理论意义和参考价值,而且对于节约采暖运行成本,提高建筑热环境质量等具有现实意义和实用价值。
本文的主要研究思路与成果如下：
(1)本文针对新增采暖区没有采暖能源统计数据,需求预测困难的实际情况,在深入分析居住建筑采暖能源需求影响因素的基础上,运用多元回归分析,构建了参照区(城市)居住建筑采暖能源需求预测模型,进而通过引入气候、建筑体形系数、建筑朝向等修正系数,构建了新增采暖区(城市)居住建筑采暖能源需求预测模型。并以拉萨市为例,按设定的住宅集中供热面积占居住总面积的不同比例,分别预测了采暖能源需求量。另外,从节能的角度,提出了优化被动式建筑设计和优化选择主动采暖系统等居住建筑采暖能源节约的主要技术路径。
(2)从系统论的角度出发,根据可持续发展理论和全寿命周期评价理论,在3E系统的基础上,提出了被动式太阳能居住建筑采暖系统(采暖方式)的“全寿命周期-3E+S+T”三维理论评价模型；从能源、经济、环境、社会和技术等方面深入分析了影响采暖方式选择的影响因素,并在此基础上,优化构建了被动式太阳能居住建筑采暖方式综合评价指标体系；进而建立了基于改进AHP和熵技术组合权重的灰色关联度采暖方式决策模型。同时,以拉萨典型的被动式太阳能居住建筑为例进行实证研究,得出了当地最适宜的被动式太阳能居住建筑的采暖方式。
(3)在分析建筑热平衡和太阳能采暖系统关系的基础上,从技术经济和节能的角度,深入分析了建筑物屋面、外墙、外窗等六个围护结构变量及其属性,运用0-1规划思想引入围护结构决策变量,通过分析围护结构组合做法与节能率和单方造价增加总额之间的关系,以一定节能率下围护结构组合做法的单方造价增加总额最低为目标,构建了被动式太阳能采暖系统优化模型,通过拟合两者函数关系曲线确定了被动式太阳能采暖系统的经济节能率区间；并在此基础上,构建了主被动结合的太阳能采暖系统整体优化模型,同样确定了整体太阳能采暖系统的经济节能率区间。同时,本文还专门对优化模型进行了算法设计,并编写了基于Dve-Cpp开发软件环境的计算机程序。另外,以拉萨典型居住建筑作为对比房,对新建居住建筑太阳能采暖系统进行了实证研究,研究为拉萨及类似地区建筑节能设计标准和配套标准图集的编制提供了依据。
(4)从公共经济学的视角,将太阳能居住建筑界定为混合产品中的准公共产品,并探讨了其外部性特征。运用动态博弈的理论和方法,构建了中央与地方政府关于财政补贴的完全信息动态博弈模型,以及政府与购房者关于太阳能居住建筑增量成本分摊的不完全信息动态博弈模型。以拉萨为例,引入意愿调查法,从购房者角度对太阳能居住建筑增量成本的分摊进行了初步设计。另外,在明确政府角色定位的基础上,从法律法规、标准规范、政府合作机制、财税激励政策、能效标识、专业服务市场、技术创新、宣传教育、国际合作等方面提出了具体的实施建议。
本研究得到国家自然科学基金重点项目“西藏高原节能居住建筑体系研究”(编号50638040)的资助。
In the entire system of energy consumption, buildings are not only the primal consumer of energy but the major releaser of environmental pollutants. Consequently energy consumption by buildings has now emerged as the focus of universal social concern. One of the cardinal ways for curbing energy consumption by buildings lies both in development and exploitation of renewable energy and in reduction of conventional energy consumption.
This paper focuses on analyzing aspects of residential building and its heating system by taking advantage of both relevant literature available and pertinent technological findings obtained by the team engaged in this research project which is funded by the Foundation. The study, as is illustrated in this paper, has been carried on upon the basis of such theoretic propositions as the theory of integration of the three factors of energy, economy, and environment, technical economics, and public economics. The goal of the said study consists in representing methods for achieving reduced residential building's energy consumption-methods that would be based primarily on a passive utilization of solar energy in a residential building. This paper is also aimed at hashing out the optimal ways for the maximal marketing of solar residential buildings. As a result, this paper touches in detail upon subjects such as (1) the amount of energy required for heating in residential buildings of the newly sprawling region (urban), (2) the ways to optimize the heating modes of a passive solar residential building, (3) the optimization of both the passive solar-heating system and the overall solar-heating system in which are combined the passive solar-heating subsystem and the active solar-heating subsystem, (4) the games going on among the interest-subjects involved in market-oriented promotion of solar residential buildings, and (5) the issue of solar residential building's incremental cost sharing. In addition, in this paper is offered a proposal which is expected to have some bearing on the government's decision in relation to market-oriented promotion of solar residential buildings. It is believed that both the rationale upon which this paper is based and the findings presented in this paper can be not only of significant theoretic and referential value in terms of optimization of utilization of solar energy for residential building but also of substantially pragmatic value in terms of both optimal reduction of heating cost of a residential building and betterment of thermal efficiency in a residential building.
Below are presented in a nutshell the rationale followed by and the findings achieved in this paper:
(1) In this paper is introduced-on the basis of a detailed analysis of factors that can markedly inform the amount of energy required for heating a residential building-the method of "multiple regressions", for the practical situation that there is no heating energy statistical data and it is difficult to predict (forecast) heating energy demand in newly added heating region. And by dint of creating a prognostic of the amount of energy required for heating residential buildings in a given referential area and also by dint of taking into consideration such modifying parameters as climatic coefficient, building shape coefficient, building-orientation coefficient, this paper is successful in establishing a model exclusively for predicting the amount of energy required for heating residential buildings in a newly sprawling suburban area. In this paper, Lhasa, Tibet is cited as an example. The percentages of different given districts in relation to the total residential area in Lhasa are calculated so that different amounts of energy required for effecting central heating of the residential buildings in any of the given districts specified above can be thus ascertained. Moreover in this paper are also elaborated the main technological expedients, by which optimization-exactly for the purpose of reducing energy consumption resulting from residential-quarters heating-of not only the passive solar-heating system in a residential building but also the active solar-heating system in a residential building can be attained.
(2) In this paper is propounded the formula of "full life-cycle-3E+S+T" which, being duly termed "a 3-dimensional-theorem-based model of evaluation", can well serve as a means for appraising the solar-heating system (or the heating modes) a residential building is equipped with. Underlying such an evaluative model, which is patterned after the theory of 3E system, are such propositions as are derived from systematology, the theory of sustainable development, and the theory of full-life-cycle assessment. Moreover in this paper is presented an in-depth study of such diverse factors, which can have some bearing upon an architect's attempt at opting for a certain type of solar-heating system, as energy resource, economic condition, environment, social circumstances, and technological feasibility. And upon the basis of such an in-depth study is formulated in this paper "the system of indices for attaining a comprehensive assessment of thermal efficiency of a passive solar-heating device in a residential building. With the establishment of the aforesaid system of indices for attaining a comprehensive assessment of thermal efficiency, can be formulated a model of decision-making with regard to the optimization of heating device engineered on the basis of an improved AHP and gray correlation degree with entropy technology portfolio weights. Furthermore In order to test the validity of propositions specified in this paper, the typical passive solar-heating system used in an average residential building in Lhasa has been used as an object in our empirical study. From such an empirical study has been obtained the optimal type of passive solar-heating device for an average residential building in Lhasa.
(3) On the basis of the findings from a study made of the relationship between building thermal equilibrium and solar heating systems has been conducted-from the perspectives of technical economy and energy conservation-an in-depth analysis of (a) the variables of a building's six building envelopes including roofs, exterior walls, exterior widows, etc. and (b) the properties of these variables. Thus by following the guidance of the 0-1 programming ideas, this paper is successful in setting forth the decision-making variables in relation to building envelopes. As a result of the analysis made by us of the relationship between "the folio approach plus the energy-saving rate" and "the unilateral increase in the total cost", is thus set forth in this paper an optimized model of passive solar heating system. The motive for formulating such an optimized model is a desire not only to attain a unilateral increase in the total cost arising from the adoption of the "envelope portfolio approach" when a certain energy-saving rate stays in the minimum but to determine the economical energy-saving-rate interval of a certain passive solar-heating system by means of bringing about a coincidence between the function curves of both the "envelope portfolio approach" and a certain energy-saving rate. And on this basis, an entire optimization model can be built out of a combined system of active solar-heating apparatus and passive solar-heating apparatus. Accordingly an economical energy-saving rate interval can thus be determined for the entire solar heating system. Furthermore in this paper are advanced not only the resultant algorithm for the optimization models specified above but a new computer program which has been developed exclusively for use in the environment of such computer programs as "Dve-Cpp".
In addition, an empirical study has been carried out for the purpose of fathoming the validity of the above-mentioned solar-heating systems in a new residential building. In the empirical study, a typical residential building in Lhasa has been used to serve as a contrast. Findings from such an empirical study can serve as a basis for the creation in the future of atlas of both standardized designs of residential building's energy-saving system and standardized designs for a residential building's associated structures in not only Lhasa but areas which are meteorologically similar to Lhasa.
(4) A definition offered in this paper from the perspective of public economics is this:A solar residential building should be termed-in the midst of mixed products-as a quasi-public product. Externality of a solar residential building are also delved into in this paper. In order to create not only a "complete information-dynamic game model" in the field of financial subsidy which involves both the Central Government and local governments but also an "incomplete information-dynamic game model" in the field of incremental cost-sharing which involves both local governments and buyers of solar residential buildings, the theory of dynamic game and methods derived therefrom have been duly adopted. Moreover the "contingent valuation method" has been used in our study which was conducted in Lhasa and applied there expressly from the standpoint of an average buyer of a solar residential building for the purpose of producing a tentative formula which is intended for ironing out problems that may arise from a transaction of incremental cost-sharing. Furthermore, having specifically defined the role to be played by a local government in the move to promote the construction of solar residential building, this paper proceeds to offer a relevant proposals that touch upon a very wide range of fields such as stature, ordinance, standard, inter-departmental cooperation-oriented mechanisms, tax incentive, energy efficiency labeling, specialized-service market, technological innovation, education, international cooperation.
Our study which springs from the research project bearing the name of "energy-efficient residential building system in the Tibetan plateau" and gives birth to this paper is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
引文
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