风电工程全寿命期风险管理模型及信息系统研究
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摘要
风电日趋成为改变能源消费结构的主角,其产业取得了长足发展,但如同任何一个行业一样,风电行业为风力发电企业带来机遇的同时也酝酿着巨大的未确知风险。对于风电企业来讲,一个标准的风电工程全寿命期包括前期、基建期、生产运行维护期,风险存在于各个阶段中且在各阶段中进行传递,一个阶段中的风险元则可能会造成另一个阶段的损失。目前,风电工程风险是制约我国现阶段风电产业发展至关重要的因素,风电工程全寿命期的风险管理理论体系尚缺乏成熟,未能对风电开发项目实施进行行之有效的指导。因此,开展风电工程全寿命期风险管理研究成为突破风电开发关键点的当务之急,也是实现我国风电产业良性发展的不可或缺的条件。
论文针对风电工程风险管理问题,以风电工程全寿命期为路线,将风险元传递理论应用其中,通过构建风电工程前期风险元传递模型、风电工程基建期风险元传递均衡优化模型、风电工程运维期风险管理模型,并提出风电工程全寿命期风险管理信息系统的建设方案,旨在探讨风电工程前期、基建期、运维期的风险管理体系,以便为风电工程管理者决策提供参考依据,使得风电工程的风险可以得到控制,进而保证项目的顺利实施和项目目标的实现。
(1)风电工程全寿命期风险管理理论及其产业发展分析。在阐述风险基本理论、风险元传递理论的基础上提出了风电工程全寿命期风险管理的结构模型,结合相关调研资料、文献资料、行业研究报告、统计数据、相关政策和法规等,采用定性方法,识别并分析了影响中国风电产业可持续发展的SWOT因素,分析了产业可持续发展背景下风电工程风险元的特点。
(2)构建了风电工程前期风险管理模型。根据风电工程前期风险元的特点,分析了风险元的分布情况,在此基础上提出了风电工程前期风险元传递的结构,构建了风电工程前期基于RBF神经网络型风险元传递模型,并进行了算例仿真,测试结果表明所建立的风险元传递模型具有正确性和可行性,为风电工程前期风险管理者提供决策依据,也为后续有关风电工程基建期和运维期的风险管理研究提供了前提条件。
(3)构建了风电工程基建期风险管理模型。在分析风电工程基建期工期-成本-质量风险特点的基础上,构建了风电工程工期-成本-质量风险元传递均衡优化模型,确定了决策变量和目标函数,提出了模型求解的模拟退火粒子群算法原理和计算步骤,以一个风电工程为例,用MATLAB编写程序对该模型进行求解得到Pareto解,并生成三维与二维pareto图像,不仅验证了风电工程工期-成本-质量风险元传递均衡优化模型的可行性,还为风电工程基建期管理者提供了有效的决策依据。
(4)构建了风电工程运维期风险管理模型。建立了基于OWA算子的风能利用的环境影响模型,最后通过算例分析验证了模型的科学性和有效性,并且为风电场的风险管理提出了具有针对性的改进措施；在综合考虑微电网的可靠性、微电网运行耗损费用、维护费用、扩展方案总费用等基础上,建立了微电网中风力-火电联合发电的风险管理模型,利用和声搜索算法模拟了一个5节点的微电网系统在10年内的电源规划扩展方案,模拟结果表明该模型具有可行性和有效性。
(5)提出了风电工程全寿命期RMIS的建设与实施方案,对风电工程全寿命期RMIS进行了用户需求分析、风险业务流程分析、数据流程分析,对风电工程全寿命期RMIS进行了总体设计、网络应用模式设计、功能模块结构设计、数据表结构设计；进行了基于Hadoop的RMIS与SCADA系统集成设计,基于SOA的计算模型集成设计；对系统实施的成功因素进行了分析,提出了系统实施的8个步骤；最后,实现了风电工程全寿命期RMIS。为整个风电工程RMIS的顺利实施提供了解决方案,增强了风电工程全寿命期风险管理理论的实用性,提供了全寿命期风险管理的信息化平台。
Wind power has become the protagonist of changing energy consumption structure increasingly, this industry has made significant progress, but as with any industry, when wind power industry bring the opportunity for the wind power generation enterprise it also brews unknown risks. For wind power companies, a standard full lifetime of wind project includes prophase, construction period, the production operation maintenance period, risk exists in various stages and transfers from phase to phase. Risk element of one stage may cause the loss of another stage. At present, the wind power project risk is an important factor restricting the development of wind power industry in our country, the risk management system of full lifetime of wind power project is absent for practical effective guidance to wind power development. Therefore, research on wind power project risk management in the full lifetime of wind power project becomes urgent to break the wind power development difficulties, and is also a necessary condition for the healthy development of China's wind power industry.
In this dissertation, for wind power project risk management problems, it takes the full lifetime of wind power project as the route, takes the risk passing theory in the research, builds risk elements transmission model in the earlier stage of wind power project, risk elements transmission equilibrium optimization model in the construction period of wind power project, risk management model in the operational phase of wind power project, posing risk management information system construction scheme for the full lifetime of wind power project. It is to investigate risk management system in the early stage, construction stage, operational stage of the wind power project, to provide reference for wind power project managers when they make decisions, to make wind power project risk can be controlled, to ensure the smooth implementation of the project and the realization of project objectives.
(1)Full lifetime risk management theory and industry development analysis of wind power project
On the basis of the introduction of the basic theory of risk and risk transfer theory, risk management structural model for the full lifetime of wind power project is presented, combined with the related research data, literature, industry research reports, statistics, related policies and regulations, adopting the qualitative method, identifying and analyzing the SWOT factors influencing the sustainable development of China's wind power industry, analyzing wind project risk characteristics under the background the industry sustainable development.
(2)Building risk model in the earlier stage of wind power project
According to the characteristics in the earlier stage of wind power project, analyzing the distribution of risk elements, on this basis, proposes the risk elements transmission structure in the earlier stage of wind power project, then build the risk element transmission model based on the RBF neural network in this stage and the example simulation results show that the model has validity and feasibility. It provides decision basis for risk managers in the earlier stage of wind power project and provides the premise condition for the subsequent related to risk management research in the construction phase and operational phase of wind power project.
(3)Building risk model in the construction period of wind power project
Based on the analysis of time-cost-quality risk characteristics in the capital construction period of wind power project, this dissertation established a time-cost-quality risk elements transmission equilibrium optimization model for wind power project,which determines the decision variables and objective function, provides the theory and the solution method of simulated annealing-particle swarm, taking a wind power project as an example, calculating the critical path and the time limit through the analysis of the construction network program, compiling program in MATLAB to solve the model and obtain the Pareto solution, and generating three-dimensional Pareto Figures. It does not only verifies the feasibility of the optimization model,but also provides effective decision-making basis for wind power project managers.
(4)Building risk management model in the operational phase of wind power project
Building environmental impact model based on OWA operator. The science and effectiveness of the model is validated by example analysis, which can provide targeted improvement measures for wind farm construction and operation. Buliding the wind-thermal power co-generation risk management model in the micro-grid with considering the reliability, operating cost,maintenance charge,extension cost of micro-grid. And then the expansion planning program in a micro-grid with five nodes in ten years was simulated using the Harmony Search. The simulation result indicates that the expansion planning model of co-generation system and the Harmony Search method are feasible and effectiveness.
(5)Posing risk management information system construction and implementation scheme for the full lifetime of wind power project
The user requirements analysis, risk business process analysis, data flow analysis are conducted for RMS of the full lifetime of wind power project. The overall design, network application model design, function module design, data table structure design are conducted for RMIS of the full lifetime of wind power project. The eight steps of system implementation is put forward then implements the wind power project full lifetime RMIS. It provides a solution for the smooth implementation of entire wind power project RMIS, enhances the practical of risk management theoryfor the lifecycle of wind power project, and provides information platform for the full lifetime risk management.
论文针对风电工程风险管理问题,以风电工程全寿命期为路线,将风险元传递理论应用其中,通过构建风电工程前期风险元传递模型、风电工程基建期风险元传递均衡优化模型、风电工程运维期风险管理模型,并提出风电工程全寿命期风险管理信息系统的建设方案,旨在探讨风电工程前期、基建期、运维期的风险管理体系,以便为风电工程管理者决策提供参考依据,使得风电工程的风险可以得到控制,进而保证项目的顺利实施和项目目标的实现。
(1)风电工程全寿命期风险管理理论及其产业发展分析。在阐述风险基本理论、风险元传递理论的基础上提出了风电工程全寿命期风险管理的结构模型,结合相关调研资料、文献资料、行业研究报告、统计数据、相关政策和法规等,采用定性方法,识别并分析了影响中国风电产业可持续发展的SWOT因素,分析了产业可持续发展背景下风电工程风险元的特点。
(2)构建了风电工程前期风险管理模型。根据风电工程前期风险元的特点,分析了风险元的分布情况,在此基础上提出了风电工程前期风险元传递的结构,构建了风电工程前期基于RBF神经网络型风险元传递模型,并进行了算例仿真,测试结果表明所建立的风险元传递模型具有正确性和可行性,为风电工程前期风险管理者提供决策依据,也为后续有关风电工程基建期和运维期的风险管理研究提供了前提条件。
(3)构建了风电工程基建期风险管理模型。在分析风电工程基建期工期-成本-质量风险特点的基础上,构建了风电工程工期-成本-质量风险元传递均衡优化模型,确定了决策变量和目标函数,提出了模型求解的模拟退火粒子群算法原理和计算步骤,以一个风电工程为例,用MATLAB编写程序对该模型进行求解得到Pareto解,并生成三维与二维pareto图像,不仅验证了风电工程工期-成本-质量风险元传递均衡优化模型的可行性,还为风电工程基建期管理者提供了有效的决策依据。
(4)构建了风电工程运维期风险管理模型。建立了基于OWA算子的风能利用的环境影响模型,最后通过算例分析验证了模型的科学性和有效性,并且为风电场的风险管理提出了具有针对性的改进措施；在综合考虑微电网的可靠性、微电网运行耗损费用、维护费用、扩展方案总费用等基础上,建立了微电网中风力-火电联合发电的风险管理模型,利用和声搜索算法模拟了一个5节点的微电网系统在10年内的电源规划扩展方案,模拟结果表明该模型具有可行性和有效性。
(5)提出了风电工程全寿命期RMIS的建设与实施方案,对风电工程全寿命期RMIS进行了用户需求分析、风险业务流程分析、数据流程分析,对风电工程全寿命期RMIS进行了总体设计、网络应用模式设计、功能模块结构设计、数据表结构设计；进行了基于Hadoop的RMIS与SCADA系统集成设计,基于SOA的计算模型集成设计；对系统实施的成功因素进行了分析,提出了系统实施的8个步骤；最后,实现了风电工程全寿命期RMIS。为整个风电工程RMIS的顺利实施提供了解决方案,增强了风电工程全寿命期风险管理理论的实用性,提供了全寿命期风险管理的信息化平台。
Wind power has become the protagonist of changing energy consumption structure increasingly, this industry has made significant progress, but as with any industry, when wind power industry bring the opportunity for the wind power generation enterprise it also brews unknown risks. For wind power companies, a standard full lifetime of wind project includes prophase, construction period, the production operation maintenance period, risk exists in various stages and transfers from phase to phase. Risk element of one stage may cause the loss of another stage. At present, the wind power project risk is an important factor restricting the development of wind power industry in our country, the risk management system of full lifetime of wind power project is absent for practical effective guidance to wind power development. Therefore, research on wind power project risk management in the full lifetime of wind power project becomes urgent to break the wind power development difficulties, and is also a necessary condition for the healthy development of China's wind power industry.
In this dissertation, for wind power project risk management problems, it takes the full lifetime of wind power project as the route, takes the risk passing theory in the research, builds risk elements transmission model in the earlier stage of wind power project, risk elements transmission equilibrium optimization model in the construction period of wind power project, risk management model in the operational phase of wind power project, posing risk management information system construction scheme for the full lifetime of wind power project. It is to investigate risk management system in the early stage, construction stage, operational stage of the wind power project, to provide reference for wind power project managers when they make decisions, to make wind power project risk can be controlled, to ensure the smooth implementation of the project and the realization of project objectives.
(1)Full lifetime risk management theory and industry development analysis of wind power project
On the basis of the introduction of the basic theory of risk and risk transfer theory, risk management structural model for the full lifetime of wind power project is presented, combined with the related research data, literature, industry research reports, statistics, related policies and regulations, adopting the qualitative method, identifying and analyzing the SWOT factors influencing the sustainable development of China's wind power industry, analyzing wind project risk characteristics under the background the industry sustainable development.
(2)Building risk model in the earlier stage of wind power project
According to the characteristics in the earlier stage of wind power project, analyzing the distribution of risk elements, on this basis, proposes the risk elements transmission structure in the earlier stage of wind power project, then build the risk element transmission model based on the RBF neural network in this stage and the example simulation results show that the model has validity and feasibility. It provides decision basis for risk managers in the earlier stage of wind power project and provides the premise condition for the subsequent related to risk management research in the construction phase and operational phase of wind power project.
(3)Building risk model in the construction period of wind power project
Based on the analysis of time-cost-quality risk characteristics in the capital construction period of wind power project, this dissertation established a time-cost-quality risk elements transmission equilibrium optimization model for wind power project,which determines the decision variables and objective function, provides the theory and the solution method of simulated annealing-particle swarm, taking a wind power project as an example, calculating the critical path and the time limit through the analysis of the construction network program, compiling program in MATLAB to solve the model and obtain the Pareto solution, and generating three-dimensional Pareto Figures. It does not only verifies the feasibility of the optimization model,but also provides effective decision-making basis for wind power project managers.
(4)Building risk management model in the operational phase of wind power project
Building environmental impact model based on OWA operator. The science and effectiveness of the model is validated by example analysis, which can provide targeted improvement measures for wind farm construction and operation. Buliding the wind-thermal power co-generation risk management model in the micro-grid with considering the reliability, operating cost,maintenance charge,extension cost of micro-grid. And then the expansion planning program in a micro-grid with five nodes in ten years was simulated using the Harmony Search. The simulation result indicates that the expansion planning model of co-generation system and the Harmony Search method are feasible and effectiveness.
(5)Posing risk management information system construction and implementation scheme for the full lifetime of wind power project
The user requirements analysis, risk business process analysis, data flow analysis are conducted for RMS of the full lifetime of wind power project. The overall design, network application model design, function module design, data table structure design are conducted for RMIS of the full lifetime of wind power project. The eight steps of system implementation is put forward then implements the wind power project full lifetime RMIS. It provides a solution for the smooth implementation of entire wind power project RMIS, enhances the practical of risk management theoryfor the lifecycle of wind power project, and provides information platform for the full lifetime risk management.
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