中国工业制成品对美出口竞争力及其影响因素分析
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摘要
20世纪90年代后,中美贸易进入了高速发展时期,尤其作为出口主体商品的工业制成品,出口规模发展十分迅速。制造业作为我国的支柱产业,是国家现代工业化发展的体现,其发展潜力决定了一国的经济实力,因而被高度关注。美国作为世界上最大的独立经济体,其巨大的市场容量和进口需求成为各国产品出口竞争的重要目标市场,也是衡量各国产业国际竞争力实力和竞争潜力的焦点。面对世界产业转移和国际分工格局形成带来的挑战与机遇,客观分析我国工业制成品对美出口竞争力的状况和影响因素,对中美经贸长远发展具有重要的现实意义。
本文先对中国工业制成品对美出口状况进行了简单描述,从总量和出口结构进行了分析,发现我国出口规模扩大的同时,出口结构也发生了相应变动。由于这些变化多归功于产品竞争力的变动,因而随后本文采用因子分析法和进出口数据对衡量竞争力各个指标进行综合地定量分析,得出杂项制品竞争力最高,但下降幅度也最为明显,其次是轻纺织、橡胶制品,但也出现小幅下降的趋势,机械及运输设备出口竞争力上升最快,相反化学品及有关产品出口竞争力最小,变化也最为缓慢的特点。进而从生产要素、需求条件、相关和辅助产业、企业组织结构和竞争战略及政府、机遇方面,对竞争力的影响因素展开了定性分析,对各类产品的竞争变化成因进行分类总结。最后在鉴于因素分析的基础上提出提高发展循环经济、全面引导外资流向、加大科技投入、创建产业集群、实施出口市场多元化战略等相关政策与建议。
Since 1990s, China-U.S.A. trade has entered into a rapidly growing period, especially as the main exports of manufactured goods, which developed very rapidly. As China's pillar industries, the manufacturing sector is the source for national economic development, and its export competitiveness determines the strength of the country's economy, so it is be highly concerned. Meanwhile, the market capacity of U.S.A. has becoming the most potential export target market of other countries. So, the analysis on the industrial competitiveness of manufactured exports to U.S.A situation and influencing factors are committed to be important to the development of China-U.S.A. trade.
Firstly, this article focuses on China's manufactured goods exports to U.S.A of simple description, and from the total size and structure of exports trend aspects analysis, it is found that while the scale of China's exports expanded, export structure has also undergone corresponding changes. Because these changes mostly due to the competitiveness of products. And then, we use factor analysis and trade data of exports to measure the comprehensive quantitative analysis of the competitiveness.It is found that miscellaneous manufactured articles is the most competitive, but they are the most significant decrease. Followed by the light textile, rubber products, but also has a slight downward trend. Machinery and transport equipment increased export competitiveness fastest. However, chemicals and related products' export competitiveness is the smallest and most slowly changing characteristics.
In the end, it analyzes the impacts of competitive forces from the production, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, corporate organizational structure and competition strategy and the government role, opportunity elements. Then, based on the analysis in view of factors, it proposes to increase the development of circular economy, a comprehensive guide the flow of foreign capital, increase investment in science and technology to create industry clusters and other relevant policies and proposals.
本文先对中国工业制成品对美出口状况进行了简单描述,从总量和出口结构进行了分析,发现我国出口规模扩大的同时,出口结构也发生了相应变动。由于这些变化多归功于产品竞争力的变动,因而随后本文采用因子分析法和进出口数据对衡量竞争力各个指标进行综合地定量分析,得出杂项制品竞争力最高,但下降幅度也最为明显,其次是轻纺织、橡胶制品,但也出现小幅下降的趋势,机械及运输设备出口竞争力上升最快,相反化学品及有关产品出口竞争力最小,变化也最为缓慢的特点。进而从生产要素、需求条件、相关和辅助产业、企业组织结构和竞争战略及政府、机遇方面,对竞争力的影响因素展开了定性分析,对各类产品的竞争变化成因进行分类总结。最后在鉴于因素分析的基础上提出提高发展循环经济、全面引导外资流向、加大科技投入、创建产业集群、实施出口市场多元化战略等相关政策与建议。
Since 1990s, China-U.S.A. trade has entered into a rapidly growing period, especially as the main exports of manufactured goods, which developed very rapidly. As China's pillar industries, the manufacturing sector is the source for national economic development, and its export competitiveness determines the strength of the country's economy, so it is be highly concerned. Meanwhile, the market capacity of U.S.A. has becoming the most potential export target market of other countries. So, the analysis on the industrial competitiveness of manufactured exports to U.S.A situation and influencing factors are committed to be important to the development of China-U.S.A. trade.
Firstly, this article focuses on China's manufactured goods exports to U.S.A of simple description, and from the total size and structure of exports trend aspects analysis, it is found that while the scale of China's exports expanded, export structure has also undergone corresponding changes. Because these changes mostly due to the competitiveness of products. And then, we use factor analysis and trade data of exports to measure the comprehensive quantitative analysis of the competitiveness.It is found that miscellaneous manufactured articles is the most competitive, but they are the most significant decrease. Followed by the light textile, rubber products, but also has a slight downward trend. Machinery and transport equipment increased export competitiveness fastest. However, chemicals and related products' export competitiveness is the smallest and most slowly changing characteristics.
In the end, it analyzes the impacts of competitive forces from the production, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, corporate organizational structure and competition strategy and the government role, opportunity elements. Then, based on the analysis in view of factors, it proposes to increase the development of circular economy, a comprehensive guide the flow of foreign capital, increase investment in science and technology to create industry clusters and other relevant policies and proposals.
引文
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[2]Fagerberg J. User-producer Interaction, Learning and Comparative Advantage. Cambridge Journal of Economics,1995, vol.19:143-156.
[3]Moreno L. The Determinants of Spanish Industrial Exports to European Union. Applied Economics,1997, vol.29:723-732.
[4]Kim D., Marion B. Domestic Market Structure and Performance in Global Market:Theory and Empirical Evidence from US Food Manufacturing industry. Review of International Organization,1999,12(5):335-354.
[5]Bender, Siegfi-ied. Trade and Comparative Advantage of Asia and Latin American Manufactured Export. APEC Study Center Consortium Conference, Australia,2001:56-66
[6]Sanjaya Lall. The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports1985-98. Oxford Development Studies,2000,Vol.28(No.3):337-369.
[7]Adams, Byron Gangnes and Yochanan Shachmurove. Why is China so Competitive? Measuring and Explaining China's Competitiveness. World Economy,2006(1):95-122.
[8]Chan EMH, Au KF. Determinants of China's textile exports:An analysis by gravity model. Journal of the Textile Institute,2007(5):463-469.
[9]Zhongxiu Zhao, and Kevin Honglin Zhang. China's Industrial Competitiveness in the World. The Chinese Economy,2007, vol.40(no.6):6-23.
[10]金培.竞争力经济学.广州：广东经济出版社,2003.156-162.
[11]汪斌,邓艳梅.中口贸易中工业制成品比较优势及国际分工类型.世界经济,2003,4：21-25.
[12]魏浩,毛日异,张二震.中国制成品出口比较优势及贸易结构分析.世界经济,2005,2：21-33.
[13]王立平.中国制造业竞争力实证分析.当代财经,2006,3：85.
[14]贺婷婷,褚永.入世5周年对我国工业制成品国际竞争力的影响分析.国际贸易问题,2007,8：61-66.
[15]万莉.中国工业制成品的出口竞争力分析.中国经济评论,2007,10(7)：25.
[16]孔炯炯.我国工业制成品的国际竞争力分析.统计观察,2007,2：59.
[17]王仁曾.产业国际竞争力决定因素的实证研究——进展、困难、模型即对中国制造业截面数据的估计与检验.统计研究,2002,4：20-24.
[18]张金华,俞金红.江苏省制造业区域竞争力分析.江苏统计,2002,3：18-24.
[19]禹智潭,吾爱祥.我国有色金属工业国际竞争力决定因素的实证分析.国际贸易问题,2004,10：9-12.
[20]陈旭红,屈驳韵,李春林.中国制造业竞争力的影响因素分析.河北经贸大学学报,2005,4：49-54.
[21]彭怀韬.中国工业制成品对美出口国际竞争力研究：(硕士学位论文).长沙：湖南大学,2008.
[22]WEF. Global Competitiveness Report 1997.World Economic Forum, Geneva, Switzerland,1997:35.
[23]OECD. Technology and Economy:The Key Relationship. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris,1996:237.
[24]Michael Porter. The Competitive Advantage of Nation. New York:Micmilla,1990.127-128.
[25]金培.中国工业国际竞争力——理论、方法和实证研究.北京：经济管理出版社,1997.185-187.
[26]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所课题组.中国工业国际竞争力报告.管理世界,1997,4：52-66.
[27]张金昌.国际竞争力评价的理论和方法研究：(博士学位论文).北京：中国社会科学院研究生院,2001.
[28]王雯亚.我国电子信息产品出口竞争力分析：(硕士学位论文).杭州：浙江工商大学,2008.
[29]张金昌.用出口数据评价国际竞争力的方法研究.经济管理,2001,20：17-25.
[30]薛荣久.国际贸易.北京：对外经贸大学出版社,2003.24-46.
[31]Paul R.Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld著.海闻,潘圆圆,张卫华等译.International Economics Theory and Policy.北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006.13-55.
[32]李滋植,姜文学.国际贸易.大连：东北财经大学出版社,2005.46-61.
[33]佟家栋,周申.国际贸易学——理论与政策.北京：高等教育出版社,2007.45-67.
[34]迈克尔·波特.竞争论.北京：中信出版社,2009.78-110.
[35]金碚,李刚,陈志.中国制造业国际竞争力现状分析及提升对策.财贸经济,2007,3：3-10.
[36]李云凌.谢玉梅.我国通信设备制造业的国际竞争力分析.科技管理研究,2008,7：47-50.
[37]汪素琴.我国工业制成品出口贸易结构与竞争力实证分析.国际贸易问题,2005,6：21-25.
[38]杨丹辉,侯民军.中国工业制成品出口竞争力的实证分析.河北经贸大学学报,2003,6：16-22.
[39]张文兵.中国农药产业国际竞争力的变动分析.国际贸易问题,2006,6：32-36.
[40]李菲,秦升.中国制造业国际竞争力的显示性指标分析.统计与决策,2007,3：80-82.
[41]朱彤,孙永强.我国纺织品服装产业出口结构与国际竞争力的实证分析.经贸论坛,2009,8：25-31.
[42]王勇.中国工业制成品对日贸易的比较优势及两国分工类型研究：(硕士学位论文).南京：东南大学,2005.
[43]金碚,李钢,陈志.加入WTO以来中国制造业国际竞争力的实证分析.中国工业经济,2006,10：5-14.
[44]薛薇.SPSS统计分析方法及应用.北京：电子工业出版社,2009.56-74.
[45]周丽.制造业内部主要行业竞争力评价.知识经济,2007,1：91-92.
[46]岳中刚.基于因子分析法的区域零售业竞争力研究.产业经济研究,2006,2：24-29.
[47]路文杰.基于因子分析的区域产业竞争力评价.河北经贸大学学报,2010,31(2):84-87.
[48]黄亚玲,魏伟.试析中国劳动力成本上升的趋势及其影响.中共长春市委党校学报,2007,4：18-19.
[49]刘祥霞.制造业国际转移与我国制造业的结构调整：(硕士学位论文).山东：山东大学,2005.
[50]杜秀红.生产性服务业对制造业发展的作用分析.江苏商论,2007,3：73-75
[51]袁少锋,郭涌,高晓峰.我国生产性服务业发展现状及对策建议.经济论坛,2007,16：60-63.
[52]于刃刚,王菊红.美国对中国反倾销的变化趋势、原因及对策分析.经济与管理,2008,22(4)：24-26.
[53]王丽娜.美国对华贸易政策的发展趋势及应对措施.世界经济,2008,10：22-25.
[2]Fagerberg J. User-producer Interaction, Learning and Comparative Advantage. Cambridge Journal of Economics,1995, vol.19:143-156.
[3]Moreno L. The Determinants of Spanish Industrial Exports to European Union. Applied Economics,1997, vol.29:723-732.
[4]Kim D., Marion B. Domestic Market Structure and Performance in Global Market:Theory and Empirical Evidence from US Food Manufacturing industry. Review of International Organization,1999,12(5):335-354.
[5]Bender, Siegfi-ied. Trade and Comparative Advantage of Asia and Latin American Manufactured Export. APEC Study Center Consortium Conference, Australia,2001:56-66
[6]Sanjaya Lall. The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports1985-98. Oxford Development Studies,2000,Vol.28(No.3):337-369.
[7]Adams, Byron Gangnes and Yochanan Shachmurove. Why is China so Competitive? Measuring and Explaining China's Competitiveness. World Economy,2006(1):95-122.
[8]Chan EMH, Au KF. Determinants of China's textile exports:An analysis by gravity model. Journal of the Textile Institute,2007(5):463-469.
[9]Zhongxiu Zhao, and Kevin Honglin Zhang. China's Industrial Competitiveness in the World. The Chinese Economy,2007, vol.40(no.6):6-23.
[10]金培.竞争力经济学.广州：广东经济出版社,2003.156-162.
[11]汪斌,邓艳梅.中口贸易中工业制成品比较优势及国际分工类型.世界经济,2003,4：21-25.
[12]魏浩,毛日异,张二震.中国制成品出口比较优势及贸易结构分析.世界经济,2005,2：21-33.
[13]王立平.中国制造业竞争力实证分析.当代财经,2006,3：85.
[14]贺婷婷,褚永.入世5周年对我国工业制成品国际竞争力的影响分析.国际贸易问题,2007,8：61-66.
[15]万莉.中国工业制成品的出口竞争力分析.中国经济评论,2007,10(7)：25.
[16]孔炯炯.我国工业制成品的国际竞争力分析.统计观察,2007,2：59.
[17]王仁曾.产业国际竞争力决定因素的实证研究——进展、困难、模型即对中国制造业截面数据的估计与检验.统计研究,2002,4：20-24.
[18]张金华,俞金红.江苏省制造业区域竞争力分析.江苏统计,2002,3：18-24.
[19]禹智潭,吾爱祥.我国有色金属工业国际竞争力决定因素的实证分析.国际贸易问题,2004,10：9-12.
[20]陈旭红,屈驳韵,李春林.中国制造业竞争力的影响因素分析.河北经贸大学学报,2005,4：49-54.
[21]彭怀韬.中国工业制成品对美出口国际竞争力研究：(硕士学位论文).长沙：湖南大学,2008.
[22]WEF. Global Competitiveness Report 1997.World Economic Forum, Geneva, Switzerland,1997:35.
[23]OECD. Technology and Economy:The Key Relationship. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris,1996:237.
[24]Michael Porter. The Competitive Advantage of Nation. New York:Micmilla,1990.127-128.
[25]金培.中国工业国际竞争力——理论、方法和实证研究.北京：经济管理出版社,1997.185-187.
[26]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所课题组.中国工业国际竞争力报告.管理世界,1997,4：52-66.
[27]张金昌.国际竞争力评价的理论和方法研究：(博士学位论文).北京：中国社会科学院研究生院,2001.
[28]王雯亚.我国电子信息产品出口竞争力分析：(硕士学位论文).杭州：浙江工商大学,2008.
[29]张金昌.用出口数据评价国际竞争力的方法研究.经济管理,2001,20：17-25.
[30]薛荣久.国际贸易.北京：对外经贸大学出版社,2003.24-46.
[31]Paul R.Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld著.海闻,潘圆圆,张卫华等译.International Economics Theory and Policy.北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006.13-55.
[32]李滋植,姜文学.国际贸易.大连：东北财经大学出版社,2005.46-61.
[33]佟家栋,周申.国际贸易学——理论与政策.北京：高等教育出版社,2007.45-67.
[34]迈克尔·波特.竞争论.北京：中信出版社,2009.78-110.
[35]金碚,李刚,陈志.中国制造业国际竞争力现状分析及提升对策.财贸经济,2007,3：3-10.
[36]李云凌.谢玉梅.我国通信设备制造业的国际竞争力分析.科技管理研究,2008,7：47-50.
[37]汪素琴.我国工业制成品出口贸易结构与竞争力实证分析.国际贸易问题,2005,6：21-25.
[38]杨丹辉,侯民军.中国工业制成品出口竞争力的实证分析.河北经贸大学学报,2003,6：16-22.
[39]张文兵.中国农药产业国际竞争力的变动分析.国际贸易问题,2006,6：32-36.
[40]李菲,秦升.中国制造业国际竞争力的显示性指标分析.统计与决策,2007,3：80-82.
[41]朱彤,孙永强.我国纺织品服装产业出口结构与国际竞争力的实证分析.经贸论坛,2009,8：25-31.
[42]王勇.中国工业制成品对日贸易的比较优势及两国分工类型研究：(硕士学位论文).南京：东南大学,2005.
[43]金碚,李钢,陈志.加入WTO以来中国制造业国际竞争力的实证分析.中国工业经济,2006,10：5-14.
[44]薛薇.SPSS统计分析方法及应用.北京：电子工业出版社,2009.56-74.
[45]周丽.制造业内部主要行业竞争力评价.知识经济,2007,1：91-92.
[46]岳中刚.基于因子分析法的区域零售业竞争力研究.产业经济研究,2006,2：24-29.
[47]路文杰.基于因子分析的区域产业竞争力评价.河北经贸大学学报,2010,31(2):84-87.
[48]黄亚玲,魏伟.试析中国劳动力成本上升的趋势及其影响.中共长春市委党校学报,2007,4：18-19.
[49]刘祥霞.制造业国际转移与我国制造业的结构调整：(硕士学位论文).山东：山东大学,2005.
[50]杜秀红.生产性服务业对制造业发展的作用分析.江苏商论,2007,3：73-75
[51]袁少锋,郭涌,高晓峰.我国生产性服务业发展现状及对策建议.经济论坛,2007,16：60-63.
[52]于刃刚,王菊红.美国对中国反倾销的变化趋势、原因及对策分析.经济与管理,2008,22(4)：24-26.
[53]王丽娜.美国对华贸易政策的发展趋势及应对措施.世界经济,2008,10：22-25.