中小企业的风险传导及评价研究
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摘要
西方发达国家的快速发展验证了中小企业在经济发展中的重要作用,而且从生产效率、资本、原材料和能源消耗等指标综合考虑来看,中小企业要比拥有先进生产设备和技术人才的大型企业更高。
在我国经济转型发展的过程中,所有的企业都在经历着从卖方市场向买方市场的转变,而且在全球化的大背景下,企业要面对更激烈的竞争和挑战,而风险无处不在,作为我国重要经济主体的中小企业在面对各种突发的、多变的和无形的风险时,还缺乏科学的风险评价与控制能力。因此,对中小企业的风险进行剖析、评价,并在此基础上进行科学的防范与控制意义深远。目前,很多理论工作者都把目光投向对大型企业风险的研究,对于中小企业风险还缺少系统综合的研究,本文的研究正是基于这一点展开的,提出的相关观点与措施对于中小企业将会具有理论指导意义与实践价值。
本文的第一章是关于研究目的、研究背景、研究意义、以及研究的主要内容与方法的一般介绍；第二章主要对国内外风险理论的演化进行了详细介绍,并对中小企业风险研究的发展进行了综述；第三章主要是关于中小企业基本理论的相关研究。首先,本文从“质”和“量”两个角度对中小企业的内涵进行了界定。本文明确了中小企业的定义是：中小企业是与所处行业的大企业相比人员规模、资产规模与经营规模都比较小的经济单位,也即它是由一个或少数几个人直接控制的、从事独立经营并独立承担风险、在同行业中处于非主导地位且规模较小的企业。同时,本章还对中小企业的特征以及中小企业的风险类别进行了详尽的剖析；第四章主要对中小企业风险系统的动态传导过程进行分析。本章将自组织理论用于企业风险形成和传导过程的描述,分析了企业风险传导的要素、特征,运用数学语言描述了企业风险传导的动力学过程,对影响企业风险系统的涨落随机因素进行了研究,分析了中小企业风险传导的特殊性,并对中小企业风险传导进行了实证分析；第五章主要是对中小企业风险进行评价。本章介绍了传统的企业风险评价方法,以我国上市中小企业为样本,分析了我国中小企业的风险结构,使用多层次的模糊综合评价方法对单个中小企业的风险进行了评价；基于前文对于中小企业风险的论述,第六章从战略管理的角度研究了基于战略情报、组织结构、行业选择以及战略薪酬的中小企业风险控制方法,试图对正在逐步完善的战略风险管理做出一些补充；第七章,对全文做出总结与研究展望。
本文对中小企业风险的特征、成因及表现进行了深入的理论分析,运用数学语言描述了企业风险传导的动力学过程,对中小企业风险传导进行了实证研究,剖析了我国中小企业的风险结构,建立了多层次的模糊综合评价方法,并得出如下结论：
(1)对中小企业业务单元的联动性及风险传导进行了实证分析,并得出中小企业风险传导的特性。
(2)对我国中小企业的风险结构进行了分析,得出我国中小企业系统风险相对较高的结论。
(3)考虑到中小型企业有别于大型企业的特点,在制定中小企业评价模型的过程中采用了特殊的方法,在基于多层次的模糊综合评价模型中,不单纯依赖定量指标,增加了定性指标的考察。
(4)为消除中小企业的短视行为,有效促进中小企业的发展,论文基于战略管理的角度,提出了几点中小企业风险控制措施的建议。
整篇论文结合运用了理论研究与实证分析相结合的方法,文献研究法、定性与定量、归纳与演绎相结合的方法,类比分析法、回归分析法以及案例分析法等研究方法。运用文献研究法对风险的国内外相关理论进行了归纳总结；选取了定性与定量指标对中小企业风险进行了量化分析；运用EVIEWS、SPSS16.0等统计软件实证分析了中小企业的风险传导,中小企业的风险结构,以及不同行业小型企业的成长状况；并通过案例分析法验证了风险控制在中小企业的重要作用。
The western countries'fast development has verified the importance of small and medium-sized enterprises in the development of economy. Estimated from the index of productivity, capital, raw materials, energy consumption, etc., small and medium-sized enterprises have more advantages than large enterprises which possess advanced production equipment and technical talents.
In the course of our country'economic transformation, enterprises are also undergoing the change from a seller's market to a buyer's market. And in the context of globalization, enterprises have to face more fierce competition and challenges. But risk is everywhere. As a main economic entity in our country, minor enterprises still lack the scientific risk analysis mechanism and risk controlling ability. Therefore, it is important to analyze and evaluate the risk of SMEs. So far scholars in our country mostly focus on the risks management study of large enterprises other than minor enterprises. We still lack systematic comprehensive research on small and medium-sized enterprises at present. This paper just outlines its study on the basis of this point. The study will have theoretical significance as well as practical value.
Chapter1is the introduction of dissertation. In this chapter, it introduces researching objective, researching background, researching significance, researching content and researching method. Chapter2mainly introduces the domestic and international risk theory evolution. And small and medium enterprises risk research development is reviewed, too. Chapter3is the research of small and medium-sized enterprises'theory. First of all, this article defines small and medium-sized enterprises from two angles:" quality" and "quantity". The paper defines the minor enterprises as follows:Compared with large enterprises in number of employees, capital scale, operation scale and operation risks level, minor enterprises are less scaled and less risky. Namely they are directly controlled by a single person or a few persons. They operate the company and taking risks independently all by themselves. These enterprises are not in a leadership position of an industry and are relatively small in scale. At the same time, this paper analyzes the features of small and medium-sized enterprises and the categories of small and medium-sized enterprises risk. Chapter4mainly analyzes the dynamic conduction process of minor enterprise risk. In this chapter, self organization theory is used to explain enterprise risk formation and conduction process. Small and medium-sized enterprises'risk conduction characteristics and main elements are analyzed, too. We also describe the dynamic risk conduction mechanism process the mathematics language. The random factors which affect enterprise risk system are described. This chapter analyzes the small and medium enterprise risk conduction particularity and makes an empirical analysis on it. The fifth chapter introduces the traditional enterprise risk evaluation methods. Taking the listed SMEs in China as samples, the chapter analyzes small and medium-sized enterprise risk structure in our country. And fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to evaluate minor enterprises risk. Chapter6studies the methods to control risks based on strategic intelligence from the angle of strategy management, organization structure, industry choice and strategic salary of minor enterprises, and try to supplement strategic risks management method which is being completed gradually. Chapter7is sum-up of the dissertation and expectation of the research.
In this paper, we make an in-depth theoretical analysis of small and medium-sized enterprises'risk characteristics, causes and manifestations. The dynamic process of enterprise risk conduction is discussed in mathematical language, too. At the same time, small and medium-sized enterprises'risk structure in our country is analyzed and the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is established to evaluate their risk. According to the analysis, this article draws the following conclusions:
(1) Based on the empirical analysis of small and medium-sized enterprises'business unit linkage and transmission of risk, small and medium-sized enterprises'risk conduction characteristics are obtained.
(2) According to the analysis of small and medium-sized enterprises' risk structure,we can reach the conclusion that small and medium-sized enterprises'system risk in our country is relatively high.
(3) Considering the fact that small and medium-sized enterprises are different from large enterprises, this article adopts a special method to establish the small and medium-sized enterprise evaluation model, the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The quantitative indexes and qualitative indexes are both adopted in the model.
(4) In order to eliminate small and medium-sized enterprises' short-sighted behavior and effectively promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, this article puts forward a few risk control measures based on the theory of strategic management.
The whole dissertation combines the empirical analysis and theoretical analysis, research analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis, induction and deduction analysis, analogy analysis and regression analysis and other methods. This paper uses documentary research method to summarize the domestic and foreign relevant theories on risk management. On the basis of qualitative and quantitative research of minor enterprises, the article evaluates small and medium-sized enterprises'risk. By the statistical software, such as EVIEWS and SPSS16.0, it analyzes the risk conduction and the structure of small and medium-sized enterprise. The growth state of small enterprises in various industries is analyzed, too. And this paper verifies the important role of risk control in minor enterprises through case-study.
在我国经济转型发展的过程中,所有的企业都在经历着从卖方市场向买方市场的转变,而且在全球化的大背景下,企业要面对更激烈的竞争和挑战,而风险无处不在,作为我国重要经济主体的中小企业在面对各种突发的、多变的和无形的风险时,还缺乏科学的风险评价与控制能力。因此,对中小企业的风险进行剖析、评价,并在此基础上进行科学的防范与控制意义深远。目前,很多理论工作者都把目光投向对大型企业风险的研究,对于中小企业风险还缺少系统综合的研究,本文的研究正是基于这一点展开的,提出的相关观点与措施对于中小企业将会具有理论指导意义与实践价值。
本文的第一章是关于研究目的、研究背景、研究意义、以及研究的主要内容与方法的一般介绍；第二章主要对国内外风险理论的演化进行了详细介绍,并对中小企业风险研究的发展进行了综述；第三章主要是关于中小企业基本理论的相关研究。首先,本文从“质”和“量”两个角度对中小企业的内涵进行了界定。本文明确了中小企业的定义是：中小企业是与所处行业的大企业相比人员规模、资产规模与经营规模都比较小的经济单位,也即它是由一个或少数几个人直接控制的、从事独立经营并独立承担风险、在同行业中处于非主导地位且规模较小的企业。同时,本章还对中小企业的特征以及中小企业的风险类别进行了详尽的剖析；第四章主要对中小企业风险系统的动态传导过程进行分析。本章将自组织理论用于企业风险形成和传导过程的描述,分析了企业风险传导的要素、特征,运用数学语言描述了企业风险传导的动力学过程,对影响企业风险系统的涨落随机因素进行了研究,分析了中小企业风险传导的特殊性,并对中小企业风险传导进行了实证分析；第五章主要是对中小企业风险进行评价。本章介绍了传统的企业风险评价方法,以我国上市中小企业为样本,分析了我国中小企业的风险结构,使用多层次的模糊综合评价方法对单个中小企业的风险进行了评价；基于前文对于中小企业风险的论述,第六章从战略管理的角度研究了基于战略情报、组织结构、行业选择以及战略薪酬的中小企业风险控制方法,试图对正在逐步完善的战略风险管理做出一些补充；第七章,对全文做出总结与研究展望。
本文对中小企业风险的特征、成因及表现进行了深入的理论分析,运用数学语言描述了企业风险传导的动力学过程,对中小企业风险传导进行了实证研究,剖析了我国中小企业的风险结构,建立了多层次的模糊综合评价方法,并得出如下结论：
(1)对中小企业业务单元的联动性及风险传导进行了实证分析,并得出中小企业风险传导的特性。
(2)对我国中小企业的风险结构进行了分析,得出我国中小企业系统风险相对较高的结论。
(3)考虑到中小型企业有别于大型企业的特点,在制定中小企业评价模型的过程中采用了特殊的方法,在基于多层次的模糊综合评价模型中,不单纯依赖定量指标,增加了定性指标的考察。
(4)为消除中小企业的短视行为,有效促进中小企业的发展,论文基于战略管理的角度,提出了几点中小企业风险控制措施的建议。
整篇论文结合运用了理论研究与实证分析相结合的方法,文献研究法、定性与定量、归纳与演绎相结合的方法,类比分析法、回归分析法以及案例分析法等研究方法。运用文献研究法对风险的国内外相关理论进行了归纳总结；选取了定性与定量指标对中小企业风险进行了量化分析；运用EVIEWS、SPSS16.0等统计软件实证分析了中小企业的风险传导,中小企业的风险结构,以及不同行业小型企业的成长状况；并通过案例分析法验证了风险控制在中小企业的重要作用。
The western countries'fast development has verified the importance of small and medium-sized enterprises in the development of economy. Estimated from the index of productivity, capital, raw materials, energy consumption, etc., small and medium-sized enterprises have more advantages than large enterprises which possess advanced production equipment and technical talents.
In the course of our country'economic transformation, enterprises are also undergoing the change from a seller's market to a buyer's market. And in the context of globalization, enterprises have to face more fierce competition and challenges. But risk is everywhere. As a main economic entity in our country, minor enterprises still lack the scientific risk analysis mechanism and risk controlling ability. Therefore, it is important to analyze and evaluate the risk of SMEs. So far scholars in our country mostly focus on the risks management study of large enterprises other than minor enterprises. We still lack systematic comprehensive research on small and medium-sized enterprises at present. This paper just outlines its study on the basis of this point. The study will have theoretical significance as well as practical value.
Chapter1is the introduction of dissertation. In this chapter, it introduces researching objective, researching background, researching significance, researching content and researching method. Chapter2mainly introduces the domestic and international risk theory evolution. And small and medium enterprises risk research development is reviewed, too. Chapter3is the research of small and medium-sized enterprises'theory. First of all, this article defines small and medium-sized enterprises from two angles:" quality" and "quantity". The paper defines the minor enterprises as follows:Compared with large enterprises in number of employees, capital scale, operation scale and operation risks level, minor enterprises are less scaled and less risky. Namely they are directly controlled by a single person or a few persons. They operate the company and taking risks independently all by themselves. These enterprises are not in a leadership position of an industry and are relatively small in scale. At the same time, this paper analyzes the features of small and medium-sized enterprises and the categories of small and medium-sized enterprises risk. Chapter4mainly analyzes the dynamic conduction process of minor enterprise risk. In this chapter, self organization theory is used to explain enterprise risk formation and conduction process. Small and medium-sized enterprises'risk conduction characteristics and main elements are analyzed, too. We also describe the dynamic risk conduction mechanism process the mathematics language. The random factors which affect enterprise risk system are described. This chapter analyzes the small and medium enterprise risk conduction particularity and makes an empirical analysis on it. The fifth chapter introduces the traditional enterprise risk evaluation methods. Taking the listed SMEs in China as samples, the chapter analyzes small and medium-sized enterprise risk structure in our country. And fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to evaluate minor enterprises risk. Chapter6studies the methods to control risks based on strategic intelligence from the angle of strategy management, organization structure, industry choice and strategic salary of minor enterprises, and try to supplement strategic risks management method which is being completed gradually. Chapter7is sum-up of the dissertation and expectation of the research.
In this paper, we make an in-depth theoretical analysis of small and medium-sized enterprises'risk characteristics, causes and manifestations. The dynamic process of enterprise risk conduction is discussed in mathematical language, too. At the same time, small and medium-sized enterprises'risk structure in our country is analyzed and the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is established to evaluate their risk. According to the analysis, this article draws the following conclusions:
(1) Based on the empirical analysis of small and medium-sized enterprises'business unit linkage and transmission of risk, small and medium-sized enterprises'risk conduction characteristics are obtained.
(2) According to the analysis of small and medium-sized enterprises' risk structure,we can reach the conclusion that small and medium-sized enterprises'system risk in our country is relatively high.
(3) Considering the fact that small and medium-sized enterprises are different from large enterprises, this article adopts a special method to establish the small and medium-sized enterprise evaluation model, the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The quantitative indexes and qualitative indexes are both adopted in the model.
(4) In order to eliminate small and medium-sized enterprises' short-sighted behavior and effectively promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, this article puts forward a few risk control measures based on the theory of strategic management.
The whole dissertation combines the empirical analysis and theoretical analysis, research analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis, induction and deduction analysis, analogy analysis and regression analysis and other methods. This paper uses documentary research method to summarize the domestic and foreign relevant theories on risk management. On the basis of qualitative and quantitative research of minor enterprises, the article evaluates small and medium-sized enterprises'risk. By the statistical software, such as EVIEWS and SPSS16.0, it analyzes the risk conduction and the structure of small and medium-sized enterprise. The growth state of small enterprises in various industries is analyzed, too. And this paper verifies the important role of risk control in minor enterprises through case-study.
引文
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①净现值是指投资方案所产生的现金净流量以资金成本为贴现率折现之后与原始投资额现值的差额。净现值法就是按净现值大小来评价方案优劣的一种方法。净现值大于零则方案可行,且净现值越大,方案越优,投资效益越好。
②内含报酬率：是指能够使未来现金流入量现值等于未来现金流出量现值的折现率,或者说是使投资方案净现值为零的折现率。简单说,从项目开始到项目完成的现金支出、现金收入的现值之和为零的折现率。内含报酬率法是根据方案本身内含报酬率来评价方案优劣的一种方法。内含报酬率大于资金成本率则方案可行,且内含报酬率越高方案越优。
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③相变,指的是系统状态的改变。
①混沌理论,是系统从有序突然变为无序状态的一种演化理论,是对确定性系统中出现的内在“随机过程”形成的途径、机制的研讨。
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①企业风险的传导过程中,风险高势能区域会将风险传导给风险低势能区域,风险高势能企业会将风险传导给风险低势能企业,企业的风险高势能部门会将风险传导给风险低势能部门,就称之为企业风险传导的“水流洼地”规律。
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③离散系数：一组数据的标准差与其相应的均值之比,是测度数据离散程度的相对指标,可用于比较不同组别数据的离散程度。
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