基于实物期权的污水处理PPP项目特许期决策研究
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摘要
公私合作(Public-Private-Partnership, PPP)作为一种能够有效缓解政府部门在公共基础设施投资领域资金不足的融资模式,近年来越来越受到政府部门和私人投资者的青睐。特许期是PPP融资中最重要的参数,它是划分政府和私人投资者利益的时间界限,其合理程度直接关系到项目成败。
在污水处理PPP项目特许期决策不当的背景下,针对传统NPV特许期决策方法的不合理之处,运用实物期权理论构建基于实物期权的污水处理PPP项目特许期决策模型。本文主要做了以下研究：
首先,在前人研究成果基础上,系统地总结污水处理PPP项目特许期的主要影响因素。并就此分析了污水处理PPP项目中存在的各类风险,进一步识别出各类风险对应的实物期权类型,构建一般意义上的基于实物期权的污水处理PPP项目特许期决策模型。其次,以某污水处理处理TOT项目为案例,分析识别出该项目的实物期权,在设计出该项目担保期权的价值模型的基础上,构建了基于担保期权的特许期决策模型。最后,根据原始数据及相关的参数假设编制项目在各年份的现金流量表,运用试算法及蒙特卡洛模拟分别计算出第20年至30年的净现值NPV和相应的担保价值Gi,再通过比较各试算年份的等额回收金与年期望投资回报之间的大小分别得出考虑和不考虑担保期权价值两种情况下项目的特许期大小,最后对担保期权价值做了敏感性分析。计算的结果表明,担保期权实际上增加了项目的真实价值,从而投资者可以在较短的特许期内获得期望投资回报。
将实物期权运用到污水处理PPP项目的研究很少,本文通过系统地分析识别污水处理PPP项目中的实物期权特性,构建基于实物期权的污水处理PPP项目特许期决策模型,为污水处理行业的特许期决策提供一定的理论参考,同时也丰富和深化了实物期权的应用和研究领域。
As a form of project financing, Public-private partnership (abbreviated as PPP) which can effectively alleviate the shortage of funds of the government department has become more and more popular by both the government and the private investors in recent years. The concession period is the most important parameter of the concession agreement, as it can divide the interests both of the government and investors at time dimension. To some distance, the reasonable of the concession period is directly related to the success of the project.
In the background of poor decision-making of concession period of the waste water treatment PPP project, as traditional NPV method is unreasonable.using real optional theory to build the concession period decision-making model.In this paper,do the following researches:
First, the PPP financing and the concession period were reviewed. Through collecting and collating the literature of related research at home and abroad, we can summarize the present several types of the decision-making methods of concession period. From this point, it can provide some related reference to research of concession period of wastewater treatment. Second, the basic theories of real option are reviewed. Pointing out that there are some limitations to use the traditional NPV method to evaluate the value of PPP project, but real option can compensate for this defect effectively to get the true value of the project. Third, to design the decision-making model of concession period of wastewater treatment PPP project based on real option.From the analysis of wastewater treatment PPP project has the real option characteristics to build the decision-making model of concession period of wastewater treatment PPP project based on the real option. Finally, case analysis of a wastewater treatment project. Using Monte Carlo simulation method to calculate the length of the concession period of the project considering the guarantee option value. The calculated results show that, considering the option value of the project, the actual value of the project will increase, and thus the private investor can receive the cost of the project in a relatively short span of the concession period.
There are less researches of application of real option to wastewater treatment PPP project at present.Through systematic identification and analysis of wastewater treatment PPP project has the real option characteristics, the article build the decision-making model of concession period of wastewater treatment based on real option. This research can provide a theoretical reference for the licensing decisions of the wastewater treatment industry, but also enrich and deepen the application of real options and research areas.
在污水处理PPP项目特许期决策不当的背景下,针对传统NPV特许期决策方法的不合理之处,运用实物期权理论构建基于实物期权的污水处理PPP项目特许期决策模型。本文主要做了以下研究：
首先,在前人研究成果基础上,系统地总结污水处理PPP项目特许期的主要影响因素。并就此分析了污水处理PPP项目中存在的各类风险,进一步识别出各类风险对应的实物期权类型,构建一般意义上的基于实物期权的污水处理PPP项目特许期决策模型。其次,以某污水处理处理TOT项目为案例,分析识别出该项目的实物期权,在设计出该项目担保期权的价值模型的基础上,构建了基于担保期权的特许期决策模型。最后,根据原始数据及相关的参数假设编制项目在各年份的现金流量表,运用试算法及蒙特卡洛模拟分别计算出第20年至30年的净现值NPV和相应的担保价值Gi,再通过比较各试算年份的等额回收金与年期望投资回报之间的大小分别得出考虑和不考虑担保期权价值两种情况下项目的特许期大小,最后对担保期权价值做了敏感性分析。计算的结果表明,担保期权实际上增加了项目的真实价值,从而投资者可以在较短的特许期内获得期望投资回报。
将实物期权运用到污水处理PPP项目的研究很少,本文通过系统地分析识别污水处理PPP项目中的实物期权特性,构建基于实物期权的污水处理PPP项目特许期决策模型,为污水处理行业的特许期决策提供一定的理论参考,同时也丰富和深化了实物期权的应用和研究领域。
As a form of project financing, Public-private partnership (abbreviated as PPP) which can effectively alleviate the shortage of funds of the government department has become more and more popular by both the government and the private investors in recent years. The concession period is the most important parameter of the concession agreement, as it can divide the interests both of the government and investors at time dimension. To some distance, the reasonable of the concession period is directly related to the success of the project.
In the background of poor decision-making of concession period of the waste water treatment PPP project, as traditional NPV method is unreasonable.using real optional theory to build the concession period decision-making model.In this paper,do the following researches:
First, the PPP financing and the concession period were reviewed. Through collecting and collating the literature of related research at home and abroad, we can summarize the present several types of the decision-making methods of concession period. From this point, it can provide some related reference to research of concession period of wastewater treatment. Second, the basic theories of real option are reviewed. Pointing out that there are some limitations to use the traditional NPV method to evaluate the value of PPP project, but real option can compensate for this defect effectively to get the true value of the project. Third, to design the decision-making model of concession period of wastewater treatment PPP project based on real option.From the analysis of wastewater treatment PPP project has the real option characteristics to build the decision-making model of concession period of wastewater treatment PPP project based on the real option. Finally, case analysis of a wastewater treatment project. Using Monte Carlo simulation method to calculate the length of the concession period of the project considering the guarantee option value. The calculated results show that, considering the option value of the project, the actual value of the project will increase, and thus the private investor can receive the cost of the project in a relatively short span of the concession period.
There are less researches of application of real option to wastewater treatment PPP project at present.Through systematic identification and analysis of wastewater treatment PPP project has the real option characteristics, the article build the decision-making model of concession period of wastewater treatment based on real option. This research can provide a theoretical reference for the licensing decisions of the wastewater treatment industry, but also enrich and deepen the application of real options and research areas.
引文
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[2]United Nations institute for raining and research. PPP for sustainable development[R].2000
[3]The European Commission. Guidance for successful PPP[R].2003
[4]The National Council For PPP, USA. For the good of the people:using PPP to meet American's essential needs [R].2002
[5]Installation of Civil Engineers and Actuarial Profession. Risk analysis and management for projects:a strategic framework for managing project risk and its financial implications. Second edition. Thomas Telford,2005
[6]Allan R J. PPP:a review of literature and practice[C]. Saskatchewan Institute of Public Policy Paper, 4.1999
[7]Tah J HM and Carr V. Towards a framework for project risk knowledge management in the construction supply chain. Advances in Engineering Software, 2001, 32:835-846
[8]王颧.PPP的定义和分类研究.都市快轨交通.2004.5(总69期)：23-26
[9]武志,韩枫.对BOT融资中投资回报率的分析[J].山东经济,1999年第一期
[10]孙晓岭.试论BOT项目在我国的运作及对策[D].一九九九年十二月学位论文
[11]SHAW L N, KENNETH G M, THOMPSON L S. Concessions in transport [R].The World Bank Group, 1996
[12]MALINI E. Build operates transfer municipal bridge projects in India [J] Journal of Management in Engineering, 1999,15(4):51-58
[13]夏家承.BOT作业程序与关键问题[J].中兴工程,2000,68：71-97
[14]姚乃嘉,李俊宪,林芸湘.BOT特许合约研究系列(二)—特许权篇[J].现代营建,2001,2(53)：43-51
[15]杨宏伟,周晶,何建敏.基于博弈论的交通BOT项目特许权期的决策模型[J].管理工程学报,2003,17(3)：93-95
[16]李启明,申立银.基础设施BOT项目特许权期的决策模型[J].管理工程学报,2000,14(1)：43-46
[17]BRICKLEY J A, MISRA S. VAN.H R L. Contract duration:evidence from franchise contracts [J]. Journal of law and economies. 2006.49(1):173-196
[18]ZHANG X Q, ABOUTRISK S M. Determining a reasonable concession period for private sector provision of public works and service [J]. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 2006,33(5):622-631
[19]YE S D, ROBER T L K.NPV-at-risk method in infrastructure project investment evaluation [J] Journal of Construction Engineering and Management.2000, 126(3):227-233
[20]YE S D, ROBER T L K. The effect of concession period design on completion risk management Of BOT projects [J].Construction Management and Economies, 2003,21(5):471-482
[21]THOMAS S N, XIE J Z, CHEUNGYK, et al. A simulation model for optimizing the concession Period of public-private-partnership schemes [J].International Journal of Project Management,2007,25(8):791-798
[22]Engle, E.M.R.A, Fischer, R.D. Least-Present-Value of Revenue Auctions and highway franchising. Working Paper 6689 National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, USA.
[23]于国安.基础设施特许经营中特许权期的决策分析[J].商业研究,2006,52-56
[24]王东波,宋金波,戴大双,韩首栋.BOT项目特许期决策方法研究评述[J].预测,2009(3)
[25]Engel E, Fisher R, Galetovic A. Revenue-based auction and unbundling infrastructure franchises [R].Washington D. C, IFM2112,1997.1-29
[26]Engel E,Fisher R, Galetovic A. Highway franchising:pitfalls and opportunities [J]. American Economic Review, 1997,87 (2):68-72
[27]Engel E, Fisher R, Galetovic A. Least-present-value-of-revenue actions and highway franchising [J]. Journal of Political Economy, 2001, 109 (5):993-1020.
[28]Shen L N, Li H. Alternative concession model for build-operate-transfer contract projects [J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2002,128 (4):326-330
[29]胡振,刘华,金维兴.服务购买型BOT项目特许经营期的计算模型[J].预测,2010,6：43-47
[30]秦旋.基于CAPM的BOT项目特许期的计算模型[J].管理工程学报,2005,19(2)：60-63
[31]赵立力,谭德庆.基于社会效益的BOT项目特许权期决策分析.[J]管理工程学报,2009,23(2)：125-130
[32]Raftery J. Risk analysis in project management [M].London:E&FN Spon Press, 2003.
[33]Zhang XQ, Abourizk SM. Determining a reasonable concession period for private sector provision of public works and services [J].Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 2006, 33(5):622-631
[34]Thomas SN, Xie JZ, Skitmore M, et al. A fuzzy simulation model for evaluating the concession items of public-private partnership schemes [J].Automation in Construction,2007,17(1):22-29
[35]王增忠,范立础,张学清.公私合作制项目特许期的确定方法[J].上海师范大学学报,2008,37(1)：68-73
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