移动商务决策行为及其价值形成研究
|
摘要
无线网络传输随着技术的成熟逐渐在社会生产生活中普及,其对未来的影响将是深远和不能忽视的。无线技术应用使的交易行为可以超越任何空间、时间的限制,随时随地进行,传统商业模式也必将受到其影响而面临挑战。本文结合这些变化趋势、挑战,以移动商务环境下行为变化规律为主线,对此进行深入研究。
首先,移动商务接受决策行为研究。任何新技术出现后,无论消费者还是企业首先要清楚的是新技术条件下决策行为的变化是什么。移动商务技术已经成熟但要在社会活动中得到广泛接受还存在一定困难,因此有必要分析找出影响移动商务接受决策行为变化的具体因素及其影响方式,以促进移动商务的发展。本文设计了影响移动商务接受度的调查问卷,通过主成份分析方法对其影响因素进行特征分析。研究表明,在众多移动商务影响因素中,消费者实际最为关心的是效用、对身体健康影响等五个方面,应主要从这些方面重点开展移动商务推广活动。
其次,实时交易行为研究。移动商务因为其信息获取的实时便利性,决策者在进行决策时所需信息几近于可随时获得,这与以往的决策活动之前需要专门的情报活动阶段有所不同。为此,我们分析了移动商务所带来的决策实时性与交互性问题。我们结合Simon的经典决策理论模型分析了这一过程,建立了移动商务环境下交易决策模型并以移动商务环境下的购买与竞价行为为例进行博弈分析。
再次,合作竞争行为研究。在价值链研究中,我们基于博弈方法研究了移动运营商角色选择的不确定性问题。不确定因素可划分为三个层次：企业内部因素,市场环境等外部因素,以及与价值链上与其他企业之间关系的不确定性。以此为基础,提出了基于定性变化过程的博弈均衡求解模型,并通过定性模拟方法使用Visual Studio2005对此进行编程模拟。研究结果给出了各种不同条件下博弈问题可能达到的均衡。
接着,价值形成机制研究。在考察了移动商务内外部因素及参与者角色确定问题后,本文从价值链角度,将移动商务全部活动过程纳入到价值链体系中,将参与企业的价值获得过程看作一系列移动商务价值创造构成,创造性地建立了表明资金流和信息流在价值链中流动规律的多智能体模型,并基于AnyLogic进行了模拟实现和运行。研究表明,移动商务活动尚处于初始发展阶段,数据服务提供商和接入服务提供商的收益都处于快速上升增长时期。同时,价值分配和增长比率是不同的,内容服务提供商后期增速明显高于接入服务提供商,表明未来几年将是移动商务各种内容服务大发展时期,移动商务发展将迎来内容服务时代。
最后,本文结合深圳市东方嘉盛供应链股份有限公司实际,分析研究了移动商务环境下物流企业决策主要问题与特点,在公司原有基础上设计信息系统的建设及升级方案,指出公司信息系统建设的原则,给出了软件平台建设的基本指导思路,并做了初步的网络拓扑方案设计。
As the technology matures, wireless networks increasingly popular in social production and life, the impact of which in the future will be far-reaching and can not be ignored. With the application of wireless technology, any transaction can beyond the space or time constraints, in anywhere and at anytime.Based on wireless technology and its social applications, the traditional business model will also be affected by their impact and challenges.This paper will combine the trends of these changes and challenges in logistic company to find out the main influencial factors followed by the route of anlyzing the mobilie commerce and the decision behaviours under the wirless net work environment.
First, researches about acceptance decision behaviours in mobile commerce.When any new technology appears, decision behaviours under the conditions of new technologies should be firstly make clear,whether consumers or enterprises. Althought mobile commerce technology has matured, in social activities it is diffcult for mobile commerce to be widely accepted.Following the application analysis of TAM model, the questionnaire of acceptance degree was designed to anaylisis the influencing factors based on the principal component analysis methods. As the result five factors was extracted to replace the privious 2 index system in TAM model. The study has shown that five aspects such as utility and effectiveness of the health from many factors are mostly concerned with the consumers, and we should mainly focus on these aspects from the mobile business promotion activities.
Next, real time transaction behaviour research. Because of its ease of access to information in real time of mobile commerce decision-makers can get the information needed for decision making in almost real time access, which is much different from the professional inteligent department to prepare the information in the past. For this reason, we first analyzed problems arising from real-time and interactive nature during the decision-making in mobile commerce. We analyzed this process combined by classical Simon's decision theory and Game Analysis, the transaction behaviours model was also established with the example of purchasing behaviors under the mobile commerce environment.
Then, Cooperation and competetion behaviours research in mobile commerce. During the research the uncertainty of role for mobile operator was analyzed based on Game Theory.the uncertainty can be devided into three layers:Uncertainty from the company, uncertainty from the market and the uncertain relationship between the companies in the chain.Qulitative process simulation was used to establish the game equilibrium model and corresponding programing was inducted. Based on which, the equilibriums under different environments was conducted.
Next, mechanisim research of value forming.The participate companies activeties can be seen as a series of mobile commerce value creation process. The company is one part of the total value chain composition, these disparate but inter-related with the mobile commerce activities, constitute a dynamic process of value creation.When the inner and out environment and parter roles were researched, we has creatively established the multi-agent modela that express the laws of funds flow and information flow in the value chain. The main properties and its interactive agent behavior was analyzed verification and simulation of the model was carried out with AnyLogic. The study has shown that Mobile commerce is still at the initial development stage, the data service providers and access service providers are in a rapid increase in revenue growth period. At the same time the value of mobile commerce in the distribution and growth rates are different, the content service providers, the latter part of the growth rate was significantly higher than the value of access to service providers to obtain, indicating that the next few years will be a rapid development period for different content services, the mobile commerce will usher the era of content services business.
At last, problems and key decision-making characteristics in logistics companies under mobile commerce environment was researched as the example of easttop logistic company in Shenzhen. The paper designed construction and improving plan based on the orginal base the company and also the primitive net work topology.The principal of information system constructing was pointed out and the basic guiding and ideas was made and aslo corporate network based on mobile commerce system architecture was designed.
首先,移动商务接受决策行为研究。任何新技术出现后,无论消费者还是企业首先要清楚的是新技术条件下决策行为的变化是什么。移动商务技术已经成熟但要在社会活动中得到广泛接受还存在一定困难,因此有必要分析找出影响移动商务接受决策行为变化的具体因素及其影响方式,以促进移动商务的发展。本文设计了影响移动商务接受度的调查问卷,通过主成份分析方法对其影响因素进行特征分析。研究表明,在众多移动商务影响因素中,消费者实际最为关心的是效用、对身体健康影响等五个方面,应主要从这些方面重点开展移动商务推广活动。
其次,实时交易行为研究。移动商务因为其信息获取的实时便利性,决策者在进行决策时所需信息几近于可随时获得,这与以往的决策活动之前需要专门的情报活动阶段有所不同。为此,我们分析了移动商务所带来的决策实时性与交互性问题。我们结合Simon的经典决策理论模型分析了这一过程,建立了移动商务环境下交易决策模型并以移动商务环境下的购买与竞价行为为例进行博弈分析。
再次,合作竞争行为研究。在价值链研究中,我们基于博弈方法研究了移动运营商角色选择的不确定性问题。不确定因素可划分为三个层次：企业内部因素,市场环境等外部因素,以及与价值链上与其他企业之间关系的不确定性。以此为基础,提出了基于定性变化过程的博弈均衡求解模型,并通过定性模拟方法使用Visual Studio2005对此进行编程模拟。研究结果给出了各种不同条件下博弈问题可能达到的均衡。
接着,价值形成机制研究。在考察了移动商务内外部因素及参与者角色确定问题后,本文从价值链角度,将移动商务全部活动过程纳入到价值链体系中,将参与企业的价值获得过程看作一系列移动商务价值创造构成,创造性地建立了表明资金流和信息流在价值链中流动规律的多智能体模型,并基于AnyLogic进行了模拟实现和运行。研究表明,移动商务活动尚处于初始发展阶段,数据服务提供商和接入服务提供商的收益都处于快速上升增长时期。同时,价值分配和增长比率是不同的,内容服务提供商后期增速明显高于接入服务提供商,表明未来几年将是移动商务各种内容服务大发展时期,移动商务发展将迎来内容服务时代。
最后,本文结合深圳市东方嘉盛供应链股份有限公司实际,分析研究了移动商务环境下物流企业决策主要问题与特点,在公司原有基础上设计信息系统的建设及升级方案,指出公司信息系统建设的原则,给出了软件平台建设的基本指导思路,并做了初步的网络拓扑方案设计。
As the technology matures, wireless networks increasingly popular in social production and life, the impact of which in the future will be far-reaching and can not be ignored. With the application of wireless technology, any transaction can beyond the space or time constraints, in anywhere and at anytime.Based on wireless technology and its social applications, the traditional business model will also be affected by their impact and challenges.This paper will combine the trends of these changes and challenges in logistic company to find out the main influencial factors followed by the route of anlyzing the mobilie commerce and the decision behaviours under the wirless net work environment.
First, researches about acceptance decision behaviours in mobile commerce.When any new technology appears, decision behaviours under the conditions of new technologies should be firstly make clear,whether consumers or enterprises. Althought mobile commerce technology has matured, in social activities it is diffcult for mobile commerce to be widely accepted.Following the application analysis of TAM model, the questionnaire of acceptance degree was designed to anaylisis the influencing factors based on the principal component analysis methods. As the result five factors was extracted to replace the privious 2 index system in TAM model. The study has shown that five aspects such as utility and effectiveness of the health from many factors are mostly concerned with the consumers, and we should mainly focus on these aspects from the mobile business promotion activities.
Next, real time transaction behaviour research. Because of its ease of access to information in real time of mobile commerce decision-makers can get the information needed for decision making in almost real time access, which is much different from the professional inteligent department to prepare the information in the past. For this reason, we first analyzed problems arising from real-time and interactive nature during the decision-making in mobile commerce. We analyzed this process combined by classical Simon's decision theory and Game Analysis, the transaction behaviours model was also established with the example of purchasing behaviors under the mobile commerce environment.
Then, Cooperation and competetion behaviours research in mobile commerce. During the research the uncertainty of role for mobile operator was analyzed based on Game Theory.the uncertainty can be devided into three layers:Uncertainty from the company, uncertainty from the market and the uncertain relationship between the companies in the chain.Qulitative process simulation was used to establish the game equilibrium model and corresponding programing was inducted. Based on which, the equilibriums under different environments was conducted.
Next, mechanisim research of value forming.The participate companies activeties can be seen as a series of mobile commerce value creation process. The company is one part of the total value chain composition, these disparate but inter-related with the mobile commerce activities, constitute a dynamic process of value creation.When the inner and out environment and parter roles were researched, we has creatively established the multi-agent modela that express the laws of funds flow and information flow in the value chain. The main properties and its interactive agent behavior was analyzed verification and simulation of the model was carried out with AnyLogic. The study has shown that Mobile commerce is still at the initial development stage, the data service providers and access service providers are in a rapid increase in revenue growth period. At the same time the value of mobile commerce in the distribution and growth rates are different, the content service providers, the latter part of the growth rate was significantly higher than the value of access to service providers to obtain, indicating that the next few years will be a rapid development period for different content services, the mobile commerce will usher the era of content services business.
At last, problems and key decision-making characteristics in logistics companies under mobile commerce environment was researched as the example of easttop logistic company in Shenzhen. The paper designed construction and improving plan based on the orginal base the company and also the primitive net work topology.The principal of information system constructing was pointed out and the basic guiding and ideas was made and aslo corporate network based on mobile commerce system architecture was designed.
引文
[1].白方周.国外定性仿真应用评述[J].系统仿真学报,1998,10(4)：1-7.
[2].白作霖,彭俊松.基于CSCW的多Agent协同式检测规划模型的研究[J].中国机械工程,1998,9(6)：6-9.
[3].彼得·G.W·基恩,罗恩·麦金托什.自由经济无线世界移动商务优势[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2002：24-30.
[4].陈芳,喻菁.一种基于多智能体的电力零售市场模型[J].计算机应用与软件,2008,25(6)：181-182,230.
[5].陈莉,张浩军,祝跃飞.一种新的移动商务小额支付协议[J].计算机应用,2007,27(8)：2059-2062.
[6].陈悦,倪浩,陶柏.企业购买中的讨价还价博弈模型[J].统计与决策,2004,(3)：28-29.
[7].邓朝华,鲁耀斌.移动银行服务采纳模型的实证分析比较[J].工业工程与管理,2007,12(6)：59-65.
[8].刁勤华,林济铿,倪以信等.博弈论及其在电力市场中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(2)：19-23.
[9].巩保峰.多智能体调度操作票自动生成与管理系统[J].供用电,2008,25(3).
[10].工业和信息化部.2009年全国电信业统计公报[EB／OL].http://www.miit.gov.cn/n11293472/n11293832/n11294132/n12858447/12888377.h tml,2010-02-10.
[11].桂寿平,吴冬玲.基于Anylogic的五阶段供应链仿真建模和分析[J].改革与战略,2009,25(1)：159-162.
[12].胡斌,邵祖峰.企业关键岗位管理人员甄选定性模拟方法及原型系统[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,24(11)：16-22.
[13].胡斌,黎志成.企业市场营销过程决策定性模拟系统[J].工业工程与管理,2004,(1)：19-22.
[14].胡斌,周明.管理系统模拟[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2008：65-65.
[15].胡舜耕,张莉钟,义信.多Agent系统的理论、技术及其应用[J].计算机科学,1999,26(9)：20-24,39.
[16].黄光明,刘鲁.两阶段价格和需求变动产品的供应链协调[J].中国管理科学,2008,16(1)：60-65.
[17].蒋国银,胡斌.基于进化MAS的移动服务链协同工作机制研究[J].管理工程学报,2009.
[18].李昆鹏,马士华.ATO供应链中航空运输及并行机生产协调调度问题[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,27(12)：8-15.
[19].李勇刚,周晓菲,徐明.基于J2ME和XML技术的移动商务安全设计[J].计算机应用研究,2006,23(11)：105-108.
[20].刘大有,杨鲲,陈建中Agent研究现状与发展趋势[J].软件学报,2000,11(3)：315-321.
[21].龙毅.J2ME和Webservice技术在移动商务中的应用研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2006.
[22].路萍,柯冬香.基于三种不同体系结构的移动商务系统平台的研究[J].计算机与数字工程,2006,34(9)：73-77.
[23].陆淑敏,饶元,李琪.移动商务价值增值模式研究[J].经济问题,2008,342(2)：34-36.
[24].鲁耀斌,徐红梅.技术接受模型的实证研究综述[J].研究与发展管理,2006,18(3)：93-99.
[25].吕欣.移动商务的安全和隐私问题[J].计算机安全,2005,(9)：36-38.
[26].吕廷杰.我国移动商务发展趋势分析与展望[J].北京邮电大学学报：社会科学版,2006,8(4)：2-8.
[27].马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2000.
[28].马雪芬,刘易勇,孙树栋等.供应链管理环境下第三方物流企业的评价选择[J].计算机工程与应用,2003,39(2)：7-9.
[29].孟宪春,丁承君,段萍等.多智能体技术的发展和应用现状[J].河北工业大学学 报,2006,35(3)：6-12.
[30].钱辰浩.IDEA加密算法在移动商务中的应用[J].电脑知识与技术,2007,2(7)：107-108.
[31].冉春玉,徐琼,谷川等.基于J2ME的移动商务系统的开发[J].信息技术,2006,30(4)：117-120.
[32].倪志伟,李锋刚,毛雪岷.智能管理技术与方法[M].北京：科学出版社,2007：74-74.
[33].邵琳琳,邵翔.适应新经济时代——价值链研究方法的变迁[J].新材料产业,2002,(12)：73-76.
[34].邵祖峰,胡斌,张金隆.企业管理者素质开发过程定性模拟及其决策支持研究[J].系统仿真学报,2007,19(2)：412-436.
[35].孙建军,成颖,柯青.TAM模型研究进展-模型演化[J].情报科学,2007,25(8)：1121-1128.
[36].谭跃进,陈英武,易进先.系统工程原理[M].长沙：国防科技大学出版社,1999.
[37].王常杰,张方国,王育民.Internet移动代理技术中的安全性研究[J].西安电子科技大学学报(自然科学版),2001,28(2)：268-272.
[38].王虹,胡劲松,三级供应链应对突发事件的协调机制研究[J].青岛大学学报(自然科学版),2006,19(3)：71-76.
[39].王能民,汪应洛,杨彤.供应链协调机制选择与绩效关系研究综述[J].管理科学,2007,20(1)：22-27.
[40].王汝林.移动商务理论与务实[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2007：93-94.
[41].王心路,赵文耘,余春.C／S向B／S系统迁移的技术[J].计算机工程,2004,30(3)：71-73.
[42].王燕,高玉飞.移动商务价值链和商务模式研究[J].物流科技,2006,29(9)：63-66.
[43].王有为,杨庆,胥正川.移动商务理论与应用[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006：236-239.
[44].王众托.知识系统工程[M].北京：科学出版社,2004.
[45].魏星,刘影,刘晓明.Anylogic系统仿真环境[A].中国航空学会信号与信息处理专 业全国第八届学术会议论文集[C],2004.
[46].吴卫卫.基于J2ME的移动商务系统的设计与实现[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2006.
[47].徐晨.论移动商务在企业信息化中的应用[J].情报科学,2006,24(1)：144-147.
[48].严祖英.移动商务价值链及商务模式探讨[J].消费导刊·经济研究,2008,(15).
[49].移动商务加速合纵连横[J].每周电脑报,2008,(3)：21.
[50].用友欲打造中国移动商务门户[J].每周电脑报,2006,(31)：44-44.
[51].殷芳芳,胡斌.网络环境下员工行为分析[J].武汉理工大学学报：信息与管理工程版,2005,27(6)：156-160.
[52].殷焕武,张俊光.基于主成份法的投资项目多方案评价[J].工业工程,2008,11(5)：128-131.
[53].袁雨飞,王有为,胥正川等.移动商务[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.
[54].曾庆群.移动商务接受度TAM影响因素的主成份分析[J].现代商业,2009,(33).
[55].曾小青.基于多智能体的虚拟企业协同生产规划研究[D].湖南：中南大学,2003.
[56].张博龙.移动商务在战时物资采购保障中的应用[J].军事经济研究,2007,(3)：44-45.
[57].张根林,李怀祖.基于多智能体的客户关系管理系统的构建[J].中国管理科学,2002,(z1)：550-553.
[58].张云勇,胡健,刘锦德.基于移动Agent的B2B协作电子商务系统[J].小型微型计算机系统,2002,23(8)：35-39.
[59].张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2004.
[60].赵会平,潘刚,徐心和.并行仿真技术综述[J].计算机仿真,2003,20(11)：1-5,123.
[61].赵师,赵艳辉.作战仿真中坦克智能体的设计和实现[J].电脑开发与应用,2007,20(4)：45-47.
[62].赵延庆,陈杰,韩九香.PCA-DEA复合模型的分销商评价与改善[J].工业工程,2005,8(6)：95-99.
[63].朱宪辰,吴道明.兼并收购的博弈分析[J],南京理工大学学报,2001,25(6)：654-657.
[64].褚燕,黄丽华.影响员工接受移动商务应用因素研究[J].研究与发展管理理,2007,19(1)：72-78.
[65].周启发.汽车物流企业并购竞价均衡研究[J].中国物流与采购,2007,(18)：74-75
[66].周涛.基于感知价值的移动商务用户接受行为研究[J].杭州电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2007,3(4)：32-36.
[67].周彦,戴剑伟.HLA仿真程序设计[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2002.
[68].邹婷婷.浅析移动商务的特点、形式及成功因素[J].科技创业月刊,2006,19(6)：98-98,113.
[69]. Andrew S.Tanenbaum著,陆丽娜,伍卫国,刘隆国译.分布式操作系统,电子工业出版社.1999
[70]. Antony.P.I,Chen,J.Strategic Supply Management and Dynamic Quality Performance:A Path Analytical Model [J] Journal of Supply Chain Management,2005,41(3):4-18.
[71]. Bagchi P K, Larson T S. Integration of information technology and organizations in a supply chain [J]. International Journal of Logistics Management,2003,14(1): 89-108.
[72]. Barnes, S J. The mobile commerce value chain:analysis and future development[J]. International Journal of Information Management,2002,22 (2), 91-108.
[73]. Barnett, N., Hodges, S., Wilshire, M.J.2000, M-commerce:an operator's manual. McKinsey Quarterly 3,162-173.
[74]. Berndsen R. Causal Ordering in Economic Models. Decision Support Systems, 1995,15:157-165.
[75]. Berndsen R, Daniels H. Causal Reasoning and Explanation in Dynamic Economic Systems. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1994,18:251-271.
[76]. Bubak M., Czerwinski P. Traffic simulation using cellular automata and continuous models. Computer Physics Communications,1999,121-122:395-398
[77]. Call for papers.simulation practice and theory[EB/OL]. http://www.elsevier.com/locate/simpra,2009-03-05.
[78]. Carley,K.M.Computational organizational science and organizational engineering[J]. Simulation Modeling Practice and Theory,2002,10(5-7):253-269.
[79]. Chris, J.v.A., Bob,W., Guus,S.Organizational building blocks for design of distributed intelligent system[J]. International Journal of Human-Computer Studies,2004,61(5):567-599.
[80]. Chun.A.,Wai.H.,Wong.R.Y.M. Optimizing agent-based meeting shcheduling through preference estimation[J]. Engineering Application of Artificial Intelligence,2003,16:727-743.
[81]. Clarke I. Emerging value propositions for m-commerce[J] Journal of Business Strategies,2001,18(2):133-148.
[82]. Cooke,J.A.How to build a solid third-party relationship[J].Logistics management,1996,2(16):52-58.
[83]. David J Closs, K Savitskie.Internal and external logistics information technology integration [J]. International Journal of Logistics Management,2003,14(1):89-108.
[84]. Davis,F.D. A technology acceptance model for empirically testing new end-use information systems:theory and results [D].PhD dissertation, MIT Sloan School of Management, Cam-bridge, MA,1986.
[85]. Davis,F.D., Bagozzi, R.P., Warshaw, P.R.User acceptance of computer technology: acomparison of two theoretical models[J].Management Science,1989,35(8): 982-1003.
[86]. Erick, B. Distributed decision making in complex organizations:the adaptive enterprise[J]. Computers&Chemical Engineering,2004,29(1):11-27.
[87]. FangX,ChanS,BrzezinskiJ,et al. Moderating effects of task type on wireless technology acceptance [J] Journal of Management Information Systems,2006,22 (3):123-157.
[88]. Forbus K D. Qualitative Process Theory [J]. Artificial Intelligence,1984,24(2): 85-168
[89]. Franklin S, Graesser A. Is it an agent, or just a program:A taxonomy for autonomous agents [A].In:Muller J P, Wooldridge M, Jennings NR, eds.Intelligent Agents Ⅲ:Agent Theories [C]. Architectures and Language New York:Springer Berlin/Heidelberg,2006:21-35.
[90]. Gloria,Mark.,Steven,Poltrock.Groupware adoption in a distributed organization: transporting and transforming technology through social worlds[J]. Information and Organization,2004,14(4):297-327.
[91]. Goldfinger, A.,Silberberg, D., Gersh J., et al.A knowledge-based approach to spacecraft distributed modeling and simlulation[J].Advances in Engineering Software,2000,31 (8-9):669-677.
[92]. Harsanyi,J.Games with Incomplete Information Played by Bayesian Players Parts Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ[J].Management Science,1968,14(7):486-502.
[93]. Hegselmann R and Flache A. Understanding Complex Social Dynamics:A Plea For Cellular-automata Based Modelling[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation,1998,1(3).
[94]. Houlihan J B. International Supply Chain Management [J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management,1987,17(2):51-66.
[95]. Iosif, L.Multi-threaded, discrete event simulation of distributed computing systems [J].Computer Physics Communications,2001,140:274-285.
[96]. Iwasaki Y. Causal Ordering in a Mixed Structure[A]. Proceedings of the Seventh National Conference on Artificial Intelligence(AAAI-88), St Paul, Minnesota[C],1988:313-318.
[97]. Janssen,M., Verbraeck,A. An agent-based simulation testbed for evaluating internet-based matching mechanisms[J]. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory,2005,13(5):371-388.
[98]. Jongwan Kim, Chong-Sun Hwang. Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to the Evaluation of Customer-Oriented Success Factors in Mobile Commerce[J]. Services Systems and Services Management,2005,1:69-74.
[99]. Kuo,Yingfeng and Yu ching-Wen.2006,3G telecommunication operators' challenges and roles:A perspective of mobile commerce value chain[J]. Technovation,26:1347-1356.
[100].Kuipers B J. Qualitative Simulation [J]. Artificial Intelligence,1986,29(1): 289-338.
[101]. Lin K P, Farley A M. Causal reasoning in Economic Models[J]. Decision Support Systems,1995,15(2):167-177.
[102]. Lyons,T.F.,Mixed Motiv eMarriages:What's Next for Buyer-supplier Relations[J].Sloan Management Re-view,1990,31(3):29-36.
[103].Mahatanankoon P, Wen H.J,Lim B. Consumer-based m-commerce:exploring consumer perception of mobil applications [J]. Computer Standards &Interfaces,2005,27(4):347-357.
[104].Margaret,K.M.Future trends in model management systems:parallel and distributed extensions[J].Decision Support Systems,1998,4(22):325-335.
[105]. Mogens,K.P.,Michael,H.L.Distributed Knowledge management based on product state models-the case of decision support in health care administration[J]. Decision Support Systems,2001,31(1):139-158.
[106]. Mohammed, A.R. Outsourcing of logistics function:a literature survey [J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Lo-gistics Management, 1998,37(6):44-52.
[107]. Nash,J.Equilibrium Points in n person Games[J].Proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the United States of America,1950,36(1):48-49.
[108].Nagel K,Schreckenberg M. A cellular automaton model for freeway traffic[J].Physique (France),1992,2(12):2221-2229.
[109].Ngai E.W.T, Cheng T.C.E, Au S.Mobile commerce integrated with RFID technology in container depot[J].Decision Support Systems,2007,43(1):62-76.
[110].Ngai E.W.T,Gunasekaran.A. A review for mobile commerce research and applications[J].Decision Support Systems,2007,43(1):3-15.
[111].Nigro, G L., Noto, S., Diega, L., Perrone G., Renna P. Coordination policies to support decision making in distributed production planning[J]. Robotics and Computer Integrated Manufacturing,2003,19(6):521-531.
[112].Nikilaidou, M., Anagnostopoulos. D.A distributed system simulation modeling approach[J].Simulation modeling practice and theory,2003,11(3-4):251-267.
[113]. Pearl J. Causality:Models, Reasoning, and Inference[M]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,2000.
[114].Ricardo, A.,Cassel,M.P. Distributed discrete event simulation using the three-phase approach and Java[J].Simulation Practice and Theory,2001,8(6-7): 491-507.
[115].Roberto,W.C.,Fabio,d.L., Palle,H.,Vittorio,M. A distributed geographic information system for the daily car pooling problem[J]. Computers &Operation Research,2004,31(13):2263-2278.
[116]. Sakoda, J M. The checkerboard model of social interaction [J]. Journal of Mathematical Sociology,1971,1(1):119-131.
[117].Salvaneschi P, Cadei M, Lazzari M. A Causal Modelling Framework for the Simulation and Explanation of the Behavior of Structure[J]. Artificial Intelligence in Engineering,1997,11(3):205-216.
[118]. Schelling T. Dynamic models of segregation[J]. Journal of Mathematical Sociology,1971,1:143-186.
[119].Shoham Y. Agent Oriented Programming:An overview of the framework and summary of recent research[J]. New York:Springer Berlin/Heidelberg,2006: 123-129.
[120]. Wolf D. E. Cellular automata for traffic simulations[J]. Physica A,1999,263 (1):438-451.
[121].Wahle J., Neubert L., Esser J., Schreckenberg M. A cellular automaton traffic flow model for online simulation of traffic[J].Parallel Computing,2001, 27(5):719-735.
[122]. Wei Y, Ying S, Fan Y, Wang B. The cellular automaton model of investment behavior in the stock market[J]. Physica A,2003,325(3-4):507-516.
[123]. Wooldridge M, Jennings N R. Intellignet agents:theory and practice [J]. The Knowledge Engineering Review,1995,10(2):115-152.
[2].白作霖,彭俊松.基于CSCW的多Agent协同式检测规划模型的研究[J].中国机械工程,1998,9(6)：6-9.
[3].彼得·G.W·基恩,罗恩·麦金托什.自由经济无线世界移动商务优势[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2002：24-30.
[4].陈芳,喻菁.一种基于多智能体的电力零售市场模型[J].计算机应用与软件,2008,25(6)：181-182,230.
[5].陈莉,张浩军,祝跃飞.一种新的移动商务小额支付协议[J].计算机应用,2007,27(8)：2059-2062.
[6].陈悦,倪浩,陶柏.企业购买中的讨价还价博弈模型[J].统计与决策,2004,(3)：28-29.
[7].邓朝华,鲁耀斌.移动银行服务采纳模型的实证分析比较[J].工业工程与管理,2007,12(6)：59-65.
[8].刁勤华,林济铿,倪以信等.博弈论及其在电力市场中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(2)：19-23.
[9].巩保峰.多智能体调度操作票自动生成与管理系统[J].供用电,2008,25(3).
[10].工业和信息化部.2009年全国电信业统计公报[EB／OL].http://www.miit.gov.cn/n11293472/n11293832/n11294132/n12858447/12888377.h tml,2010-02-10.
[11].桂寿平,吴冬玲.基于Anylogic的五阶段供应链仿真建模和分析[J].改革与战略,2009,25(1)：159-162.
[12].胡斌,邵祖峰.企业关键岗位管理人员甄选定性模拟方法及原型系统[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,24(11)：16-22.
[13].胡斌,黎志成.企业市场营销过程决策定性模拟系统[J].工业工程与管理,2004,(1)：19-22.
[14].胡斌,周明.管理系统模拟[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2008：65-65.
[15].胡舜耕,张莉钟,义信.多Agent系统的理论、技术及其应用[J].计算机科学,1999,26(9)：20-24,39.
[16].黄光明,刘鲁.两阶段价格和需求变动产品的供应链协调[J].中国管理科学,2008,16(1)：60-65.
[17].蒋国银,胡斌.基于进化MAS的移动服务链协同工作机制研究[J].管理工程学报,2009.
[18].李昆鹏,马士华.ATO供应链中航空运输及并行机生产协调调度问题[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,27(12)：8-15.
[19].李勇刚,周晓菲,徐明.基于J2ME和XML技术的移动商务安全设计[J].计算机应用研究,2006,23(11)：105-108.
[20].刘大有,杨鲲,陈建中Agent研究现状与发展趋势[J].软件学报,2000,11(3)：315-321.
[21].龙毅.J2ME和Webservice技术在移动商务中的应用研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2006.
[22].路萍,柯冬香.基于三种不同体系结构的移动商务系统平台的研究[J].计算机与数字工程,2006,34(9)：73-77.
[23].陆淑敏,饶元,李琪.移动商务价值增值模式研究[J].经济问题,2008,342(2)：34-36.
[24].鲁耀斌,徐红梅.技术接受模型的实证研究综述[J].研究与发展管理,2006,18(3)：93-99.
[25].吕欣.移动商务的安全和隐私问题[J].计算机安全,2005,(9)：36-38.
[26].吕廷杰.我国移动商务发展趋势分析与展望[J].北京邮电大学学报：社会科学版,2006,8(4)：2-8.
[27].马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2000.
[28].马雪芬,刘易勇,孙树栋等.供应链管理环境下第三方物流企业的评价选择[J].计算机工程与应用,2003,39(2)：7-9.
[29].孟宪春,丁承君,段萍等.多智能体技术的发展和应用现状[J].河北工业大学学 报,2006,35(3)：6-12.
[30].钱辰浩.IDEA加密算法在移动商务中的应用[J].电脑知识与技术,2007,2(7)：107-108.
[31].冉春玉,徐琼,谷川等.基于J2ME的移动商务系统的开发[J].信息技术,2006,30(4)：117-120.
[32].倪志伟,李锋刚,毛雪岷.智能管理技术与方法[M].北京：科学出版社,2007：74-74.
[33].邵琳琳,邵翔.适应新经济时代——价值链研究方法的变迁[J].新材料产业,2002,(12)：73-76.
[34].邵祖峰,胡斌,张金隆.企业管理者素质开发过程定性模拟及其决策支持研究[J].系统仿真学报,2007,19(2)：412-436.
[35].孙建军,成颖,柯青.TAM模型研究进展-模型演化[J].情报科学,2007,25(8)：1121-1128.
[36].谭跃进,陈英武,易进先.系统工程原理[M].长沙：国防科技大学出版社,1999.
[37].王常杰,张方国,王育民.Internet移动代理技术中的安全性研究[J].西安电子科技大学学报(自然科学版),2001,28(2)：268-272.
[38].王虹,胡劲松,三级供应链应对突发事件的协调机制研究[J].青岛大学学报(自然科学版),2006,19(3)：71-76.
[39].王能民,汪应洛,杨彤.供应链协调机制选择与绩效关系研究综述[J].管理科学,2007,20(1)：22-27.
[40].王汝林.移动商务理论与务实[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2007：93-94.
[41].王心路,赵文耘,余春.C／S向B／S系统迁移的技术[J].计算机工程,2004,30(3)：71-73.
[42].王燕,高玉飞.移动商务价值链和商务模式研究[J].物流科技,2006,29(9)：63-66.
[43].王有为,杨庆,胥正川.移动商务理论与应用[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006：236-239.
[44].王众托.知识系统工程[M].北京：科学出版社,2004.
[45].魏星,刘影,刘晓明.Anylogic系统仿真环境[A].中国航空学会信号与信息处理专 业全国第八届学术会议论文集[C],2004.
[46].吴卫卫.基于J2ME的移动商务系统的设计与实现[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2006.
[47].徐晨.论移动商务在企业信息化中的应用[J].情报科学,2006,24(1)：144-147.
[48].严祖英.移动商务价值链及商务模式探讨[J].消费导刊·经济研究,2008,(15).
[49].移动商务加速合纵连横[J].每周电脑报,2008,(3)：21.
[50].用友欲打造中国移动商务门户[J].每周电脑报,2006,(31)：44-44.
[51].殷芳芳,胡斌.网络环境下员工行为分析[J].武汉理工大学学报：信息与管理工程版,2005,27(6)：156-160.
[52].殷焕武,张俊光.基于主成份法的投资项目多方案评价[J].工业工程,2008,11(5)：128-131.
[53].袁雨飞,王有为,胥正川等.移动商务[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.
[54].曾庆群.移动商务接受度TAM影响因素的主成份分析[J].现代商业,2009,(33).
[55].曾小青.基于多智能体的虚拟企业协同生产规划研究[D].湖南：中南大学,2003.
[56].张博龙.移动商务在战时物资采购保障中的应用[J].军事经济研究,2007,(3)：44-45.
[57].张根林,李怀祖.基于多智能体的客户关系管理系统的构建[J].中国管理科学,2002,(z1)：550-553.
[58].张云勇,胡健,刘锦德.基于移动Agent的B2B协作电子商务系统[J].小型微型计算机系统,2002,23(8)：35-39.
[59].张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2004.
[60].赵会平,潘刚,徐心和.并行仿真技术综述[J].计算机仿真,2003,20(11)：1-5,123.
[61].赵师,赵艳辉.作战仿真中坦克智能体的设计和实现[J].电脑开发与应用,2007,20(4)：45-47.
[62].赵延庆,陈杰,韩九香.PCA-DEA复合模型的分销商评价与改善[J].工业工程,2005,8(6)：95-99.
[63].朱宪辰,吴道明.兼并收购的博弈分析[J],南京理工大学学报,2001,25(6)：654-657.
[64].褚燕,黄丽华.影响员工接受移动商务应用因素研究[J].研究与发展管理理,2007,19(1)：72-78.
[65].周启发.汽车物流企业并购竞价均衡研究[J].中国物流与采购,2007,(18)：74-75
[66].周涛.基于感知价值的移动商务用户接受行为研究[J].杭州电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2007,3(4)：32-36.
[67].周彦,戴剑伟.HLA仿真程序设计[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2002.
[68].邹婷婷.浅析移动商务的特点、形式及成功因素[J].科技创业月刊,2006,19(6)：98-98,113.
[69]. Andrew S.Tanenbaum著,陆丽娜,伍卫国,刘隆国译.分布式操作系统,电子工业出版社.1999
[70]. Antony.P.I,Chen,J.Strategic Supply Management and Dynamic Quality Performance:A Path Analytical Model [J] Journal of Supply Chain Management,2005,41(3):4-18.
[71]. Bagchi P K, Larson T S. Integration of information technology and organizations in a supply chain [J]. International Journal of Logistics Management,2003,14(1): 89-108.
[72]. Barnes, S J. The mobile commerce value chain:analysis and future development[J]. International Journal of Information Management,2002,22 (2), 91-108.
[73]. Barnett, N., Hodges, S., Wilshire, M.J.2000, M-commerce:an operator's manual. McKinsey Quarterly 3,162-173.
[74]. Berndsen R. Causal Ordering in Economic Models. Decision Support Systems, 1995,15:157-165.
[75]. Berndsen R, Daniels H. Causal Reasoning and Explanation in Dynamic Economic Systems. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1994,18:251-271.
[76]. Bubak M., Czerwinski P. Traffic simulation using cellular automata and continuous models. Computer Physics Communications,1999,121-122:395-398
[77]. Call for papers.simulation practice and theory[EB/OL]. http://www.elsevier.com/locate/simpra,2009-03-05.
[78]. Carley,K.M.Computational organizational science and organizational engineering[J]. Simulation Modeling Practice and Theory,2002,10(5-7):253-269.
[79]. Chris, J.v.A., Bob,W., Guus,S.Organizational building blocks for design of distributed intelligent system[J]. International Journal of Human-Computer Studies,2004,61(5):567-599.
[80]. Chun.A.,Wai.H.,Wong.R.Y.M. Optimizing agent-based meeting shcheduling through preference estimation[J]. Engineering Application of Artificial Intelligence,2003,16:727-743.
[81]. Clarke I. Emerging value propositions for m-commerce[J] Journal of Business Strategies,2001,18(2):133-148.
[82]. Cooke,J.A.How to build a solid third-party relationship[J].Logistics management,1996,2(16):52-58.
[83]. David J Closs, K Savitskie.Internal and external logistics information technology integration [J]. International Journal of Logistics Management,2003,14(1):89-108.
[84]. Davis,F.D. A technology acceptance model for empirically testing new end-use information systems:theory and results [D].PhD dissertation, MIT Sloan School of Management, Cam-bridge, MA,1986.
[85]. Davis,F.D., Bagozzi, R.P., Warshaw, P.R.User acceptance of computer technology: acomparison of two theoretical models[J].Management Science,1989,35(8): 982-1003.
[86]. Erick, B. Distributed decision making in complex organizations:the adaptive enterprise[J]. Computers&Chemical Engineering,2004,29(1):11-27.
[87]. FangX,ChanS,BrzezinskiJ,et al. Moderating effects of task type on wireless technology acceptance [J] Journal of Management Information Systems,2006,22 (3):123-157.
[88]. Forbus K D. Qualitative Process Theory [J]. Artificial Intelligence,1984,24(2): 85-168
[89]. Franklin S, Graesser A. Is it an agent, or just a program:A taxonomy for autonomous agents [A].In:Muller J P, Wooldridge M, Jennings NR, eds.Intelligent Agents Ⅲ:Agent Theories [C]. Architectures and Language New York:Springer Berlin/Heidelberg,2006:21-35.
[90]. Gloria,Mark.,Steven,Poltrock.Groupware adoption in a distributed organization: transporting and transforming technology through social worlds[J]. Information and Organization,2004,14(4):297-327.
[91]. Goldfinger, A.,Silberberg, D., Gersh J., et al.A knowledge-based approach to spacecraft distributed modeling and simlulation[J].Advances in Engineering Software,2000,31 (8-9):669-677.
[92]. Harsanyi,J.Games with Incomplete Information Played by Bayesian Players Parts Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ[J].Management Science,1968,14(7):486-502.
[93]. Hegselmann R and Flache A. Understanding Complex Social Dynamics:A Plea For Cellular-automata Based Modelling[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation,1998,1(3).
[94]. Houlihan J B. International Supply Chain Management [J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management,1987,17(2):51-66.
[95]. Iosif, L.Multi-threaded, discrete event simulation of distributed computing systems [J].Computer Physics Communications,2001,140:274-285.
[96]. Iwasaki Y. Causal Ordering in a Mixed Structure[A]. Proceedings of the Seventh National Conference on Artificial Intelligence(AAAI-88), St Paul, Minnesota[C],1988:313-318.
[97]. Janssen,M., Verbraeck,A. An agent-based simulation testbed for evaluating internet-based matching mechanisms[J]. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory,2005,13(5):371-388.
[98]. Jongwan Kim, Chong-Sun Hwang. Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to the Evaluation of Customer-Oriented Success Factors in Mobile Commerce[J]. Services Systems and Services Management,2005,1:69-74.
[99]. Kuo,Yingfeng and Yu ching-Wen.2006,3G telecommunication operators' challenges and roles:A perspective of mobile commerce value chain[J]. Technovation,26:1347-1356.
[100].Kuipers B J. Qualitative Simulation [J]. Artificial Intelligence,1986,29(1): 289-338.
[101]. Lin K P, Farley A M. Causal reasoning in Economic Models[J]. Decision Support Systems,1995,15(2):167-177.
[102]. Lyons,T.F.,Mixed Motiv eMarriages:What's Next for Buyer-supplier Relations[J].Sloan Management Re-view,1990,31(3):29-36.
[103].Mahatanankoon P, Wen H.J,Lim B. Consumer-based m-commerce:exploring consumer perception of mobil applications [J]. Computer Standards &Interfaces,2005,27(4):347-357.
[104].Margaret,K.M.Future trends in model management systems:parallel and distributed extensions[J].Decision Support Systems,1998,4(22):325-335.
[105]. Mogens,K.P.,Michael,H.L.Distributed Knowledge management based on product state models-the case of decision support in health care administration[J]. Decision Support Systems,2001,31(1):139-158.
[106]. Mohammed, A.R. Outsourcing of logistics function:a literature survey [J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Lo-gistics Management, 1998,37(6):44-52.
[107]. Nash,J.Equilibrium Points in n person Games[J].Proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the United States of America,1950,36(1):48-49.
[108].Nagel K,Schreckenberg M. A cellular automaton model for freeway traffic[J].Physique (France),1992,2(12):2221-2229.
[109].Ngai E.W.T, Cheng T.C.E, Au S.Mobile commerce integrated with RFID technology in container depot[J].Decision Support Systems,2007,43(1):62-76.
[110].Ngai E.W.T,Gunasekaran.A. A review for mobile commerce research and applications[J].Decision Support Systems,2007,43(1):3-15.
[111].Nigro, G L., Noto, S., Diega, L., Perrone G., Renna P. Coordination policies to support decision making in distributed production planning[J]. Robotics and Computer Integrated Manufacturing,2003,19(6):521-531.
[112].Nikilaidou, M., Anagnostopoulos. D.A distributed system simulation modeling approach[J].Simulation modeling practice and theory,2003,11(3-4):251-267.
[113]. Pearl J. Causality:Models, Reasoning, and Inference[M]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,2000.
[114].Ricardo, A.,Cassel,M.P. Distributed discrete event simulation using the three-phase approach and Java[J].Simulation Practice and Theory,2001,8(6-7): 491-507.
[115].Roberto,W.C.,Fabio,d.L., Palle,H.,Vittorio,M. A distributed geographic information system for the daily car pooling problem[J]. Computers &Operation Research,2004,31(13):2263-2278.
[116]. Sakoda, J M. The checkerboard model of social interaction [J]. Journal of Mathematical Sociology,1971,1(1):119-131.
[117].Salvaneschi P, Cadei M, Lazzari M. A Causal Modelling Framework for the Simulation and Explanation of the Behavior of Structure[J]. Artificial Intelligence in Engineering,1997,11(3):205-216.
[118]. Schelling T. Dynamic models of segregation[J]. Journal of Mathematical Sociology,1971,1:143-186.
[119].Shoham Y. Agent Oriented Programming:An overview of the framework and summary of recent research[J]. New York:Springer Berlin/Heidelberg,2006: 123-129.
[120]. Wolf D. E. Cellular automata for traffic simulations[J]. Physica A,1999,263 (1):438-451.
[121].Wahle J., Neubert L., Esser J., Schreckenberg M. A cellular automaton traffic flow model for online simulation of traffic[J].Parallel Computing,2001, 27(5):719-735.
[122]. Wei Y, Ying S, Fan Y, Wang B. The cellular automaton model of investment behavior in the stock market[J]. Physica A,2003,325(3-4):507-516.
[123]. Wooldridge M, Jennings N R. Intellignet agents:theory and practice [J]. The Knowledge Engineering Review,1995,10(2):115-152.