外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳排放
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摘要
上世纪90年代以来,经济全球化的浪潮席卷全球,各国经济开始深度融合,外商直接投资在全球化过程中发挥着重要作用,成为经济全球化的重要表征。然而在外商直接投资额不断攀升之时,气候异常、全球变暖等环境问题却越来越严重,直接威胁到人类生存与发展的物质基础,并受到世界各国的广泛关注。
自从中国开始执行改革开放政策以来,由于巨大的市场规模和较快的经济增长率,中国吸引世界范围内的大量的外资流入。根据中国商务部的统计,1986年我国的外商直接投资额仅为22.5亿美元,2011年则迅速攀升至1160亿美元,就FDI规模而言,我国己毫无疑义地成为全球主要的外商直接投资流入国。然而,外商直接投资的大量流入在促进我国经济增长、解决城乡劳动力就业、促进贸易顺差和增加税收的同时,也可能会使得我国的自然环境趋于恶化。其原因主要在于,我国引进外资中的相当规模资金进入“三高”(高污染、高能耗、高排放)产业,“三高”产业生产中所需的大量化石燃料的消耗会引发一系列环境问题,尤其是二氧化碳的排放。同时,不同国家的外商直接投资在投资目的和取向上有很大区别,投资的领域和结构也各不相同,加上技术和能源效率的差异,从而对二氧化碳的影响大小也不一致。外商直接投资的流入到底对我国的二氧化碳排放产生了什么样的影响?不同来源地的外商直接投资的影响又有什么区别?外商直接投资在中国的地域和产业分布特征对于二氧化碳排放的影响又有什么样的具体差异?中国在引资政策方面需要做什么样的调整?等等,都是值得我们思考和研究的重要问题。
近年来,开放条件下的气候变化问题已成为学术界研究的热点,引发了众多学者的深入研究。从已有的文献来看,针对发达经济体的研究已经有不少研究成果,而针对发展中经济体,特别是中国这样的发展中大国的研究还有待深入,尤其是在中国继2006年成为世界第一大二氧化碳排放国之后,二氧化碳排放量屡创新高,受到国际压力越来越大的国际背景下,对中国的研究则显得更为迫切。
为此,本文基于我国1978年后重新融入世界经济体系的客观背景,从外商直接投资与环境关系的理论出发,从正反两方面构建了研究外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放关系的理论分析框架,并深入剖析了改革开放以来我国利用外商直接投资的典型特征,接着从不同外商直接投资来源地、外商直接投资的区位特征、产业分布差异以及环境规制的约束等四个角度全面分析了外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳排放的关系,为我国扩大开放与建设生态文明,实现可持续发展提供政策思路。
具体来说,本文主要包括以下几方面的内容：
第一,基于外商直接投资与环境关系的相关理论,系统地梳理了外商直接投资与环境关系的相关论述,从正反两方面解析外商直接投资对环境的影响机理与原因,以及理论依据。本文主要从五个方面来分析,分别是污染避难所假说、边际产业扩张理论、产品生命周期理论、国际生产折衷理论以及波特假说,为本文的实证研究构建了分析外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放关系的理论基石。
第二,总结和分析改革开放以来我国利用外商直接投资的特征事实。从利用外商直接投资的总量特征、不同外商直接投资来源地特征、外商直接投资的区位特征以及外商直接投资的行业流向等四个方面全方位对我国利用外商直接投资的现状进行剖析,为下文研究外商直接投资与碳排放关系的研究提供了现实依据。
第三,从我国外商直接投资的来源地特征的角度,研究不同来源地的外商直接投资对于中国二氧化碳排放的不同影响。论文将外商直接投资的来源地划分为四个：港澳台、日新韩、美加欧以及其它地区,进而通过构建计量模型,运用单位根检验、协整检验等方法分析不同来源地的外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳排放的关系。研究发现,不同来源地的外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳排放之间存在长期的协整关系,且不同来源地的外商直接投资对我国二氧化碳排放的影响力度以及影响方向存在显著差异。来源于港澳台的外商直接投资会增加我国的二氧化碳排放,来源于其它国家或地区的外商直接投资也会增加我国的二氧化碳排放,不过增加强度小于来源于港澳台的外商直接投资。来源于日新韩、欧美加等地区的外商直接投资会减少我国的二氧化碳排放,但来源于美加欧的外商直接投资对我国二氧化碳的减排贡献率远高于来源于日新韩三国的外商直接投资。并分析了影响差异的原因,并提出对策。
第四,从外商直接投资在中国不同区域、不同省份的分布特征,利用我国30个省区的省际面板数据,从区位分布层次研究我国东中西三大区域的外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳排放的关系。研究结果显示外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放在区域层次上存在长期均衡关系,东部外商直接投资减少了二氧化碳排放,中部外商直接投资增加了二氧化碳排放,西部外商直接投资对二氧化碳影响不显著。论文还分析了城市化进程对二氧化碳排放的效应。实证分析表明,我国的城市化则加剧了东中部区域的二氧化碳排放,对西部则无显著影响。经济增长在东中西区域都增加了二氧化碳排放,但在东部区域是当地二氧化碳排放的主导因素。同时,研究也表明,东部与中部存在倒U型关系曲线,而在西部不成立。
第五,从外商直接投资的产业分布差异的视角,将我国工业行业按要素密集度划分为资本技术密集型、劳动力密集型以及资源密集型行业,实证研究了外商直接投资产业分布对不同类型行业二氧化碳排放的影响效应差异。外商直接投资是一把“双刃剑”,外商直接投资在不同的工业行业存在非常不同甚至截然相反的效应,表现出强烈的行业属性与产业特征。外商直接投资有效地减少了资本技术密集型行业的二氧化碳排放,增加了资源密集型行业的二氧化碳排放,对劳动力密集型的二氧化碳排放影响不显著。
第六,引入制度变量,研究环境规制约束的强弱及变化对于二氧化碳排放量的影响。论文利用我国1994-2011年的时间序列数据以及2003-2011年的省际面板数据,对我国外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放的关系进行了实证研究。其中,基于时间序列的协整分析表明,外商直接投资与环境规制均能有效地减少二氧化碳排放,外商直接投资、环境规制与我国二氧化碳排放之间存在长期的均衡关系,从格兰杰因果关系检验来看,外商直接投资、环境规制均是我国二氧化碳排放的格兰杰原因。基于面板数据的协整检验分析表明,外商直接投资、环境规制与我国二氧化碳之间存在面板协整关系,外商直接投资与环境规制均可以有效地减少我国二氧化碳排放。研究还表明外商直接投资在我国存在技术溢出效应,能有效地减少我国二氧化碳排放,污染避难所假说在我国成立的证据不足,环境规制减少了我国二氧化碳排放,但力度与强度不足。
最后,对以上各章节分析的研究结论进行了归纳与总结,就我国如何进一步处理好扩大开放,利用外商直接投资发展经济与减少二氧化碳排放的关系提出了相关政策建议。
本文的主要创新之处表现在如下几点：
第一,从不同来源地比较视角,研究了外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放的关系。以往国内外的研究中,多数文献仅研究外商直接投资总量与不同种类的污染物排放的关系,局限于总量层面。本文基于我国外商直接投资来源地的差异对我国二氧化碳排放的影响差异进行了比较,研究更加细化,并得出了新的阐释,与以往的宏观性研究相比,是一个推进。
第二,本文基于省际面板数据,引入外商直接投资与城市化、经济增长等区域差异变量,验证了环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)在区域层次的存在性以及变动规律。以往的研究中,往往忽视我国区域经济的巨大差异,也少有研究涉及外商直接投资对EKC的形状及趋势的影响。本文的研究,是在中国产业与经济区域非均衡背景下研究外商直接投资与二氧化碳关系一个新的尝试。
第三,已有文献中,多数研究未从要素密集度的角度研究外商直接投资的产业分布差异对二氧化碳排放的影响。本文将工业行业按要素密集度划分,并深入分析外商直接投资对不同要素密集度行业二氧化碳排放的影响差异,为合理引导外商直接投资产业流向,制定适宜的产业政策提供了经验证据。
第四,环境规制也是影响二氧化碳排放的一个重要因素,然而由于环境规制是一个不易量化的要素,因此已有文献中鲜有从环境规制的角度上对外商直接投资与二氧化碳的关系进行实证研究的。本文结合时间序列与面板数据,动态考察了外商直接投资、环境规制对二氧化碳排放的影响。尽管研究的设计及实证分析结果还可能存在一些缺陷,但不失为一个勇敢的尝试。
尽管本文从多个角度围绕外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳排放的关系进行了实证研究,但局限于数据的可得性,本文的研究并没有深入到微观企业层次研究两者的关系。实际上,企业对能源的消耗才是产生二氧化碳的主要来源,同时现有各章节的研究尚可以进一步深化,如何更科学、精确的研究外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳的关系,无论从数据来源上,还是计量方法上,抑或是指标选择上尚有深入研究的改进空间。随着我国对外开放力度的进一步加大,我国经济与世界经济将更加融合,而环境问题与二氧化碳排放问题将会越来越引起学术界及政府部门的重视,尽管本文还有诸多不足之处,但本文对我国引进外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放关系的深化性研究及其分析结论可以为理论研究及政策决策部门提供参考。同时,本文也可以引发更多的研究者在本文基础上的进一步深化与拓展,将有助于政府决策者应对对外开放与环境问题冲突时理性思考,实施正确的决策,也有助于建设人与自然和谐发展的环境友好型社会。
In the1990s, economic globalization had swept the whole world.The world economy started an in-depth integration. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played an important role in globalization, and it has become a major characteristic of globalization. However, environmental problems such as climatic anomalies, global warming have become more and more serious when FDI volume is continuously rising, which threats to human survival and development of material basis directly, and received extensive attention from various countries all over the world.
Since China began to implement policy of opening and reform, China attracts worldwide substantial inflows of foreign capital owing to China's huge market scale and rapid rate of economic growth. According to the statistics from China Ministry of Commerce, China's FDI in1986was only US＄2,250million, and in2011it is rapidly climbed to＄116billion. Regarding to the FDI scale, China has become the main FDI inflow country in the world without doubt. However, when promoting China's economic growth, solving the problem of urban and rural labor force employment, and promoting trade surplus and tax increases, the flow of FDI may also make our natural environment get worse at the same time. The main reason is that there is a considerable scale of funds entering into the "Three High"(high pollution, high energy consumption, high emissions) industries when foreign investment flows into China, a large number of fossil fuels used by "Three High" industries would cause a series of environmental problems, especially the emission of CO2. At the same time, different countries'FDI have great differences in objective and orientation, domain and structure, technology and energy efficiency, and influence on CO2. What's the influence that the inflow of FDI makes on CO2emission in China? What are the differences between the effects of FDI in different sources? What are the differences of the influence that the regional and industrial distributions of FDI in China make on CO2emission? What kind of adjustments China need to do in foreign policy? And so on, all are the important issues worthy of our consideration and research.
In recent years, with the expansion of opening up, climate changes have become a hotspot issue in the academic world. Many scholars have conducted in-depth research of the problem. Concerning the existing literatures, such research has been done in developed economies for about20to30years, and the research findings are enormous. However, such research is insufficient in developing economies like China. Especially after China became the world largest emitter of CO2in2006, China's emission of CO2has reached a record high. Against the backdrop of growing international pressure, it is impertinent for China to conduct such research.
To this end, based upon the theory of the relationship between FDI and environment, this paper constructs the theoretic analytic framework of studying the relationship between FDI and CO2emission from positive and negative aspects, and deeply analyzes the classic features of our nation using FDI after the opening up, and then comprehensively analyzes the relationship between FDI and our country's CO2emission in terms of different foreign investments origins, FDI's location characteristic, industrial distribution differences and restraints of environmental regulation, thus proving strategic thoughts for our country to expand opening up and build ecological civilization and realize sustainable development.
The main sections of this paper were as follows.
In the first part, based on the relevant theories about the relation between FDI and environment, this paper will systematically introduce the relevant literatures about the relation between FDI and environment. After that, this paper will analyze the mechanism and reasons and theoretical bases of FDO's influence on environment from the positive and negative sides. This paper will analyze from five aspects, namely Pollution Haven Hypothesis, Marginal Industries Expansion Theory, Product Life Cycle Theory, International Production Compromise Theory and Porter Hypothesis. All these hypotheses lay the theoretical bases for the analysis of the relation between FDI and CO2emission.
In the second part, this paper concludes and analyzes the feature fact of our nation using foreign direct investment after the reform and opening-up policy. This paper comprehensively analyzes our country's status of using foreign investment in terms of four aspects, which are gross characteristics of using foreign investment, origin source characteristics of different foreign direct investment, area characteristics of foreign direct investment and industry flow of foreign direct investment, thus providing practical basis for the following research on the relationship between foreign direct investment and carbon emission.
In the third part, from the characteristics of sources of China's FDI, this paper studies the different effects that foreign investments from different sources make on CO2emissions in China. This paper divides the foreign sources into four parts:Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan; Japan, Singapore, and South Korea; the United States, Canada and Europe; and other countries, and then makes an analysis of the relationship between the FDI in different sources and the CO2emission in china with the methods of constructing measurement model, unit root test, and co-integration test.The research finds that there exists a co-integration relation between FDI of different sources and China's CO2emission. Moreover, the influence degree and direction of FDI of different sources on China's CO2emission are different. FDI from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan will increase China's CO2emission. It is the same with the other countries or regions. However, the increase elasticity of the latter is smaller than the former. FDI from Japan, Singapore and Korea as well as Europe, America and Canada will reduce China's CO2emission. The contribute rate of the latter three countries to reducing China's CO2emission is far higher than that of the former three countries. The reasons of the differences are explored and relevant solutions are put forward.
In the fourth part, this paper investigates the relationship between the FDI in East, West, and Middle total three large regions of China and CO2emission in China from the aspects of the FDI in different regions, different provinces in China with the provincial panel data of30provinces in China. The research results indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between FDI and CO2emissions at the regional level, the FDI at the east of China reduces CO2emissions, the FDI in the middle of China increases CO2emissions, and the influence of the FDI in the west of China on CO2emissions is not significant. The paper also analyzes the effects of urbanization process on CO2emission. The empirical analysis shows that our country's urbanization mounts up the CO2emission in the eastern and central regions of China, the influence in the west of China on CO2emission is not significant.Economic growth will increase CO2emission in all the three parts, but economic growth is the dominant factor for CO2emission in China's eastern part. Research also shows that there exists inverted U relation curve in China's eastern and central parts, but that doesn't exist in China's western part.
In the fifth part, from the perspective of FDI industrial distribution, this paper divides China's industries into three parts based on elements intensity:capital and technology intensive, labor intensive and resource intensive. It also makes an empirical study on the differences between the influences of FDI industry distribution on CO2emissions in different types of industries. FDI is a "double-edged sword", FDI in different industries exists different and even opposite effects, which shows a strong industry properties and industry characteristics. The FDI effectively reduces CO2emission in capital and technology intensive industries, increases CO2emissions in resource intensive industry, has not significant impact on CO2emissions in labor intensive.
In the sixth part, this paper introduces system variables to research the influence of strength and changes of environmental regulation constraints on CO2emissions.This paper will make use of the time serial data from1994to2011in China and the provincial panel data from2003to2011in China. Through that, this paper will conduct empirical research of the relation between environmental regulations and CO2emission. The co-integration analysis based on the time serial data show that FDI and environmental regulation can both effectively reduce CO2emission. There exists a long-term balanced relation between FDI, environmental regulations and China's CO2emission. FDI and environmental regulations can both effectively reduce CO2emission. The research also shows that there is technology spillover effect of FDI in China, which can effectively reduce China's CO2emission. Therefore, Pollution Haven Hypothesis is false in China. The environment regulations reduce China's CO2emission. But the executive force and strength are not enough.
Lastly, this paper concludes and summarizes the research findings analyzed in the previous chapters, and puts forward relevant polies and suggestions on how to handle well the relation between expanding opening-up, employing FDI to develop economy and reducing CO2emission.
The innovative points of this paper are as follows:
Firstly, compare perspective from different sources, so as to study the relationship between FDI and CO2emissions. In previous studies in China and abroad, most literature only studies the relationship between FDI total amount and the emissions of different kinds of pollutants, the study is general, which is limited to the aggregate level. This paper makes a comparison based on the differences of the influence of foreign sources on CO2emissions in China with a more detailed study, and draws a new interpretation, which is propulsion compared with the macroscopic research in the past.
Secondly, Based on provincial panel data, this paper introduces difference variables of FDI with urbanization and economy growth, and verifies the existence and changes in the law of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) at the regional level. The past studies often ignore the huge differences of regional economy in China, and few studies involve the influence of FDI on the shape and trend of EKC. This paper's study is a new attempt of researching the relationship between FDI and CO2under the background of China's unbalanced industries and economic regions.
Thirdly, Among the existing literature, most of the studies don't research the influence of the differences of FDI industrial distribution on CO2emissions from the perspective of factor intensity. This paper divides the industry according to factor intensity, and makes in-depth analysis of the influence of the differences of FDI factor intensity on CO2emissions, provides empirical evidences for reasonable guiding of FDI industry, and developing appropriate industrial policies.
Fourthly, Environmental regulation is also an important factor to impact on CO2emissions, however, because environmental regulation is an unease quantitative element, few existing literature researches on the relationship between FDI and CO2from the perspective of environmental regulation. This paper examines the influence of FDI and environmental regulation on CO2emissions with time series and panel data. Although there are some defects on research design and empirical analysis results, it can yet be regarded as a valorous attempt.
Though this paper conducts empirical research of the relation between FDI and CO2emission from several perspectives, it is limited to the accessibility of data. This paper fails to conduct an in-depth research into the relation between the two from the perspective of micro-enterprise. In fact, the energy consumption of enterprise is the main source of CO2emission. At the same time, the research in each part should be furthered. Whether in terms of data source, measurement method or index selection, there is great room for improvement in order to study the relation between FDI and CO2in a more scientific and more accurate way. With the expansion of China's opening-up, China's economy will integrate more with the world economy, and its environmental issues such as CO2emission will arouse increasing attention from the academic world and government departments. Though there are some limitations, this paper's in-depth research of the relation between FDI and CO2emission and the analysis conclusion can provide reference for theoretical research and policy and decision-making department. It can also contribute to policy maker's rational thinking in tackling with the conflict between reform and opening-up and environmental issues and enforcing the correct decisions. This will contribute to building an environmentally-friendly society featuring harmonious development of man and nature.
自从中国开始执行改革开放政策以来,由于巨大的市场规模和较快的经济增长率,中国吸引世界范围内的大量的外资流入。根据中国商务部的统计,1986年我国的外商直接投资额仅为22.5亿美元,2011年则迅速攀升至1160亿美元,就FDI规模而言,我国己毫无疑义地成为全球主要的外商直接投资流入国。然而,外商直接投资的大量流入在促进我国经济增长、解决城乡劳动力就业、促进贸易顺差和增加税收的同时,也可能会使得我国的自然环境趋于恶化。其原因主要在于,我国引进外资中的相当规模资金进入“三高”(高污染、高能耗、高排放)产业,“三高”产业生产中所需的大量化石燃料的消耗会引发一系列环境问题,尤其是二氧化碳的排放。同时,不同国家的外商直接投资在投资目的和取向上有很大区别,投资的领域和结构也各不相同,加上技术和能源效率的差异,从而对二氧化碳的影响大小也不一致。外商直接投资的流入到底对我国的二氧化碳排放产生了什么样的影响?不同来源地的外商直接投资的影响又有什么区别?外商直接投资在中国的地域和产业分布特征对于二氧化碳排放的影响又有什么样的具体差异?中国在引资政策方面需要做什么样的调整?等等,都是值得我们思考和研究的重要问题。
近年来,开放条件下的气候变化问题已成为学术界研究的热点,引发了众多学者的深入研究。从已有的文献来看,针对发达经济体的研究已经有不少研究成果,而针对发展中经济体,特别是中国这样的发展中大国的研究还有待深入,尤其是在中国继2006年成为世界第一大二氧化碳排放国之后,二氧化碳排放量屡创新高,受到国际压力越来越大的国际背景下,对中国的研究则显得更为迫切。
为此,本文基于我国1978年后重新融入世界经济体系的客观背景,从外商直接投资与环境关系的理论出发,从正反两方面构建了研究外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放关系的理论分析框架,并深入剖析了改革开放以来我国利用外商直接投资的典型特征,接着从不同外商直接投资来源地、外商直接投资的区位特征、产业分布差异以及环境规制的约束等四个角度全面分析了外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳排放的关系,为我国扩大开放与建设生态文明,实现可持续发展提供政策思路。
具体来说,本文主要包括以下几方面的内容：
第一,基于外商直接投资与环境关系的相关理论,系统地梳理了外商直接投资与环境关系的相关论述,从正反两方面解析外商直接投资对环境的影响机理与原因,以及理论依据。本文主要从五个方面来分析,分别是污染避难所假说、边际产业扩张理论、产品生命周期理论、国际生产折衷理论以及波特假说,为本文的实证研究构建了分析外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放关系的理论基石。
第二,总结和分析改革开放以来我国利用外商直接投资的特征事实。从利用外商直接投资的总量特征、不同外商直接投资来源地特征、外商直接投资的区位特征以及外商直接投资的行业流向等四个方面全方位对我国利用外商直接投资的现状进行剖析,为下文研究外商直接投资与碳排放关系的研究提供了现实依据。
第三,从我国外商直接投资的来源地特征的角度,研究不同来源地的外商直接投资对于中国二氧化碳排放的不同影响。论文将外商直接投资的来源地划分为四个：港澳台、日新韩、美加欧以及其它地区,进而通过构建计量模型,运用单位根检验、协整检验等方法分析不同来源地的外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳排放的关系。研究发现,不同来源地的外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳排放之间存在长期的协整关系,且不同来源地的外商直接投资对我国二氧化碳排放的影响力度以及影响方向存在显著差异。来源于港澳台的外商直接投资会增加我国的二氧化碳排放,来源于其它国家或地区的外商直接投资也会增加我国的二氧化碳排放,不过增加强度小于来源于港澳台的外商直接投资。来源于日新韩、欧美加等地区的外商直接投资会减少我国的二氧化碳排放,但来源于美加欧的外商直接投资对我国二氧化碳的减排贡献率远高于来源于日新韩三国的外商直接投资。并分析了影响差异的原因,并提出对策。
第四,从外商直接投资在中国不同区域、不同省份的分布特征,利用我国30个省区的省际面板数据,从区位分布层次研究我国东中西三大区域的外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳排放的关系。研究结果显示外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放在区域层次上存在长期均衡关系,东部外商直接投资减少了二氧化碳排放,中部外商直接投资增加了二氧化碳排放,西部外商直接投资对二氧化碳影响不显著。论文还分析了城市化进程对二氧化碳排放的效应。实证分析表明,我国的城市化则加剧了东中部区域的二氧化碳排放,对西部则无显著影响。经济增长在东中西区域都增加了二氧化碳排放,但在东部区域是当地二氧化碳排放的主导因素。同时,研究也表明,东部与中部存在倒U型关系曲线,而在西部不成立。
第五,从外商直接投资的产业分布差异的视角,将我国工业行业按要素密集度划分为资本技术密集型、劳动力密集型以及资源密集型行业,实证研究了外商直接投资产业分布对不同类型行业二氧化碳排放的影响效应差异。外商直接投资是一把“双刃剑”,外商直接投资在不同的工业行业存在非常不同甚至截然相反的效应,表现出强烈的行业属性与产业特征。外商直接投资有效地减少了资本技术密集型行业的二氧化碳排放,增加了资源密集型行业的二氧化碳排放,对劳动力密集型的二氧化碳排放影响不显著。
第六,引入制度变量,研究环境规制约束的强弱及变化对于二氧化碳排放量的影响。论文利用我国1994-2011年的时间序列数据以及2003-2011年的省际面板数据,对我国外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放的关系进行了实证研究。其中,基于时间序列的协整分析表明,外商直接投资与环境规制均能有效地减少二氧化碳排放,外商直接投资、环境规制与我国二氧化碳排放之间存在长期的均衡关系,从格兰杰因果关系检验来看,外商直接投资、环境规制均是我国二氧化碳排放的格兰杰原因。基于面板数据的协整检验分析表明,外商直接投资、环境规制与我国二氧化碳之间存在面板协整关系,外商直接投资与环境规制均可以有效地减少我国二氧化碳排放。研究还表明外商直接投资在我国存在技术溢出效应,能有效地减少我国二氧化碳排放,污染避难所假说在我国成立的证据不足,环境规制减少了我国二氧化碳排放,但力度与强度不足。
最后,对以上各章节分析的研究结论进行了归纳与总结,就我国如何进一步处理好扩大开放,利用外商直接投资发展经济与减少二氧化碳排放的关系提出了相关政策建议。
本文的主要创新之处表现在如下几点：
第一,从不同来源地比较视角,研究了外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放的关系。以往国内外的研究中,多数文献仅研究外商直接投资总量与不同种类的污染物排放的关系,局限于总量层面。本文基于我国外商直接投资来源地的差异对我国二氧化碳排放的影响差异进行了比较,研究更加细化,并得出了新的阐释,与以往的宏观性研究相比,是一个推进。
第二,本文基于省际面板数据,引入外商直接投资与城市化、经济增长等区域差异变量,验证了环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)在区域层次的存在性以及变动规律。以往的研究中,往往忽视我国区域经济的巨大差异,也少有研究涉及外商直接投资对EKC的形状及趋势的影响。本文的研究,是在中国产业与经济区域非均衡背景下研究外商直接投资与二氧化碳关系一个新的尝试。
第三,已有文献中,多数研究未从要素密集度的角度研究外商直接投资的产业分布差异对二氧化碳排放的影响。本文将工业行业按要素密集度划分,并深入分析外商直接投资对不同要素密集度行业二氧化碳排放的影响差异,为合理引导外商直接投资产业流向,制定适宜的产业政策提供了经验证据。
第四,环境规制也是影响二氧化碳排放的一个重要因素,然而由于环境规制是一个不易量化的要素,因此已有文献中鲜有从环境规制的角度上对外商直接投资与二氧化碳的关系进行实证研究的。本文结合时间序列与面板数据,动态考察了外商直接投资、环境规制对二氧化碳排放的影响。尽管研究的设计及实证分析结果还可能存在一些缺陷,但不失为一个勇敢的尝试。
尽管本文从多个角度围绕外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳排放的关系进行了实证研究,但局限于数据的可得性,本文的研究并没有深入到微观企业层次研究两者的关系。实际上,企业对能源的消耗才是产生二氧化碳的主要来源,同时现有各章节的研究尚可以进一步深化,如何更科学、精确的研究外商直接投资与我国二氧化碳的关系,无论从数据来源上,还是计量方法上,抑或是指标选择上尚有深入研究的改进空间。随着我国对外开放力度的进一步加大,我国经济与世界经济将更加融合,而环境问题与二氧化碳排放问题将会越来越引起学术界及政府部门的重视,尽管本文还有诸多不足之处,但本文对我国引进外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放关系的深化性研究及其分析结论可以为理论研究及政策决策部门提供参考。同时,本文也可以引发更多的研究者在本文基础上的进一步深化与拓展,将有助于政府决策者应对对外开放与环境问题冲突时理性思考,实施正确的决策,也有助于建设人与自然和谐发展的环境友好型社会。
In the1990s, economic globalization had swept the whole world.The world economy started an in-depth integration. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played an important role in globalization, and it has become a major characteristic of globalization. However, environmental problems such as climatic anomalies, global warming have become more and more serious when FDI volume is continuously rising, which threats to human survival and development of material basis directly, and received extensive attention from various countries all over the world.
Since China began to implement policy of opening and reform, China attracts worldwide substantial inflows of foreign capital owing to China's huge market scale and rapid rate of economic growth. According to the statistics from China Ministry of Commerce, China's FDI in1986was only US＄2,250million, and in2011it is rapidly climbed to＄116billion. Regarding to the FDI scale, China has become the main FDI inflow country in the world without doubt. However, when promoting China's economic growth, solving the problem of urban and rural labor force employment, and promoting trade surplus and tax increases, the flow of FDI may also make our natural environment get worse at the same time. The main reason is that there is a considerable scale of funds entering into the "Three High"(high pollution, high energy consumption, high emissions) industries when foreign investment flows into China, a large number of fossil fuels used by "Three High" industries would cause a series of environmental problems, especially the emission of CO2. At the same time, different countries'FDI have great differences in objective and orientation, domain and structure, technology and energy efficiency, and influence on CO2. What's the influence that the inflow of FDI makes on CO2emission in China? What are the differences between the effects of FDI in different sources? What are the differences of the influence that the regional and industrial distributions of FDI in China make on CO2emission? What kind of adjustments China need to do in foreign policy? And so on, all are the important issues worthy of our consideration and research.
In recent years, with the expansion of opening up, climate changes have become a hotspot issue in the academic world. Many scholars have conducted in-depth research of the problem. Concerning the existing literatures, such research has been done in developed economies for about20to30years, and the research findings are enormous. However, such research is insufficient in developing economies like China. Especially after China became the world largest emitter of CO2in2006, China's emission of CO2has reached a record high. Against the backdrop of growing international pressure, it is impertinent for China to conduct such research.
To this end, based upon the theory of the relationship between FDI and environment, this paper constructs the theoretic analytic framework of studying the relationship between FDI and CO2emission from positive and negative aspects, and deeply analyzes the classic features of our nation using FDI after the opening up, and then comprehensively analyzes the relationship between FDI and our country's CO2emission in terms of different foreign investments origins, FDI's location characteristic, industrial distribution differences and restraints of environmental regulation, thus proving strategic thoughts for our country to expand opening up and build ecological civilization and realize sustainable development.
The main sections of this paper were as follows.
In the first part, based on the relevant theories about the relation between FDI and environment, this paper will systematically introduce the relevant literatures about the relation between FDI and environment. After that, this paper will analyze the mechanism and reasons and theoretical bases of FDO's influence on environment from the positive and negative sides. This paper will analyze from five aspects, namely Pollution Haven Hypothesis, Marginal Industries Expansion Theory, Product Life Cycle Theory, International Production Compromise Theory and Porter Hypothesis. All these hypotheses lay the theoretical bases for the analysis of the relation between FDI and CO2emission.
In the second part, this paper concludes and analyzes the feature fact of our nation using foreign direct investment after the reform and opening-up policy. This paper comprehensively analyzes our country's status of using foreign investment in terms of four aspects, which are gross characteristics of using foreign investment, origin source characteristics of different foreign direct investment, area characteristics of foreign direct investment and industry flow of foreign direct investment, thus providing practical basis for the following research on the relationship between foreign direct investment and carbon emission.
In the third part, from the characteristics of sources of China's FDI, this paper studies the different effects that foreign investments from different sources make on CO2emissions in China. This paper divides the foreign sources into four parts:Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan; Japan, Singapore, and South Korea; the United States, Canada and Europe; and other countries, and then makes an analysis of the relationship between the FDI in different sources and the CO2emission in china with the methods of constructing measurement model, unit root test, and co-integration test.The research finds that there exists a co-integration relation between FDI of different sources and China's CO2emission. Moreover, the influence degree and direction of FDI of different sources on China's CO2emission are different. FDI from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan will increase China's CO2emission. It is the same with the other countries or regions. However, the increase elasticity of the latter is smaller than the former. FDI from Japan, Singapore and Korea as well as Europe, America and Canada will reduce China's CO2emission. The contribute rate of the latter three countries to reducing China's CO2emission is far higher than that of the former three countries. The reasons of the differences are explored and relevant solutions are put forward.
In the fourth part, this paper investigates the relationship between the FDI in East, West, and Middle total three large regions of China and CO2emission in China from the aspects of the FDI in different regions, different provinces in China with the provincial panel data of30provinces in China. The research results indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between FDI and CO2emissions at the regional level, the FDI at the east of China reduces CO2emissions, the FDI in the middle of China increases CO2emissions, and the influence of the FDI in the west of China on CO2emissions is not significant. The paper also analyzes the effects of urbanization process on CO2emission. The empirical analysis shows that our country's urbanization mounts up the CO2emission in the eastern and central regions of China, the influence in the west of China on CO2emission is not significant.Economic growth will increase CO2emission in all the three parts, but economic growth is the dominant factor for CO2emission in China's eastern part. Research also shows that there exists inverted U relation curve in China's eastern and central parts, but that doesn't exist in China's western part.
In the fifth part, from the perspective of FDI industrial distribution, this paper divides China's industries into three parts based on elements intensity:capital and technology intensive, labor intensive and resource intensive. It also makes an empirical study on the differences between the influences of FDI industry distribution on CO2emissions in different types of industries. FDI is a "double-edged sword", FDI in different industries exists different and even opposite effects, which shows a strong industry properties and industry characteristics. The FDI effectively reduces CO2emission in capital and technology intensive industries, increases CO2emissions in resource intensive industry, has not significant impact on CO2emissions in labor intensive.
In the sixth part, this paper introduces system variables to research the influence of strength and changes of environmental regulation constraints on CO2emissions.This paper will make use of the time serial data from1994to2011in China and the provincial panel data from2003to2011in China. Through that, this paper will conduct empirical research of the relation between environmental regulations and CO2emission. The co-integration analysis based on the time serial data show that FDI and environmental regulation can both effectively reduce CO2emission. There exists a long-term balanced relation between FDI, environmental regulations and China's CO2emission. FDI and environmental regulations can both effectively reduce CO2emission. The research also shows that there is technology spillover effect of FDI in China, which can effectively reduce China's CO2emission. Therefore, Pollution Haven Hypothesis is false in China. The environment regulations reduce China's CO2emission. But the executive force and strength are not enough.
Lastly, this paper concludes and summarizes the research findings analyzed in the previous chapters, and puts forward relevant polies and suggestions on how to handle well the relation between expanding opening-up, employing FDI to develop economy and reducing CO2emission.
The innovative points of this paper are as follows:
Firstly, compare perspective from different sources, so as to study the relationship between FDI and CO2emissions. In previous studies in China and abroad, most literature only studies the relationship between FDI total amount and the emissions of different kinds of pollutants, the study is general, which is limited to the aggregate level. This paper makes a comparison based on the differences of the influence of foreign sources on CO2emissions in China with a more detailed study, and draws a new interpretation, which is propulsion compared with the macroscopic research in the past.
Secondly, Based on provincial panel data, this paper introduces difference variables of FDI with urbanization and economy growth, and verifies the existence and changes in the law of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) at the regional level. The past studies often ignore the huge differences of regional economy in China, and few studies involve the influence of FDI on the shape and trend of EKC. This paper's study is a new attempt of researching the relationship between FDI and CO2under the background of China's unbalanced industries and economic regions.
Thirdly, Among the existing literature, most of the studies don't research the influence of the differences of FDI industrial distribution on CO2emissions from the perspective of factor intensity. This paper divides the industry according to factor intensity, and makes in-depth analysis of the influence of the differences of FDI factor intensity on CO2emissions, provides empirical evidences for reasonable guiding of FDI industry, and developing appropriate industrial policies.
Fourthly, Environmental regulation is also an important factor to impact on CO2emissions, however, because environmental regulation is an unease quantitative element, few existing literature researches on the relationship between FDI and CO2from the perspective of environmental regulation. This paper examines the influence of FDI and environmental regulation on CO2emissions with time series and panel data. Although there are some defects on research design and empirical analysis results, it can yet be regarded as a valorous attempt.
Though this paper conducts empirical research of the relation between FDI and CO2emission from several perspectives, it is limited to the accessibility of data. This paper fails to conduct an in-depth research into the relation between the two from the perspective of micro-enterprise. In fact, the energy consumption of enterprise is the main source of CO2emission. At the same time, the research in each part should be furthered. Whether in terms of data source, measurement method or index selection, there is great room for improvement in order to study the relation between FDI and CO2in a more scientific and more accurate way. With the expansion of China's opening-up, China's economy will integrate more with the world economy, and its environmental issues such as CO2emission will arouse increasing attention from the academic world and government departments. Though there are some limitations, this paper's in-depth research of the relation between FDI and CO2emission and the analysis conclusion can provide reference for theoretical research and policy and decision-making department. It can also contribute to policy maker's rational thinking in tackling with the conflict between reform and opening-up and environmental issues and enforcing the correct decisions. This will contribute to building an environmentally-friendly society featuring harmonious development of man and nature.
引文
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