外商直接投资对中国碳排放的影响效应：机理与实证研究
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摘要
二氧化碳(CO2)排放对气候变化的影响已经成为一个全球关注的重大问题。2009年,《哥本哈根协定》写入了“将全球气候升温控制在2摄氏度范围之内”的各国共识。当前,全球在应对气候变化挑战,降低能源消耗、碳排放方面的研究达到空前高度。改革开放以来,中国实际利用外商直接投资(FDI)水平不断攀升,连续20年成为吸收FDI最多的发展中国家；与此同时,中国CO2排放总量从1978年的14.83亿吨增加到2011年的80亿吨,成为全球第一大温室气体排放国,单位产值碳排放也是世界平均水平的3倍以上。《“十二五”规划纲要》指出,我国应当“深入贯彻节约资源和保护环境基本国策,节约能源,降低温室气体排放强度,积极应对气候变化,促进经济社会发展与人口资源环境相协调”。这就意味着,在中国FDI水平不断提升的态势下,考虑到当前中国所面临的“碳减排”压力、党和政府对“节能减排”工作的高度重视,研究FDI对中国碳排放的影响效应具有重要意义。但是,现有FDI对中国碳排放的研究多侧重于FDI对碳排放影响的关系检验,即验证FDI对中国碳排放的影响是否存在“污染天堂”现象或“污染光环”现象；而对FDI影响碳排放的内在机制、作用渠道以及FDI技术溢出的碳排放效应等问题,尚无文献进行系统深入的研究考察。本文正是为了弥补现有研究的缺憾而试图做出相应的努力。
本文主要从两个层面对FDI中国碳排放的影响效应展开研究：一方面,通过对国内外相关文献总结,立足国际投资、经济增长和环境污染等相关经典理论,梳理了FDI对碳排放门槛效应作用机制、推导了FDI对碳排放多渠道影响模型、总结了不同FDI技术溢出对碳排放的影响机理,定性分析了FDI对中国碳排放影响的作用途径和机理；另一方面,在相关理论机制、模型分析的基础上,参考中国FDI、碳排放的现状和发展趋势,以中国30个省级地区、35个工业行业为研究对象,借助门槛面板估计、面板联立方程估计、DEA-Malmqusit指数测算等众多实证方法,定量考察了FDI对中国碳排放的客观影响。本文研究工作集中体现在以下几个方面：
首先,为考察投资地区(行业)异质性因素对FDI碳排放效应的影响,本文梳理了FDI对碳排放影响的人均收入、人力资本、研发投入、环境规制和地区腐败等门槛效应,突破了现有研究的局限。而且,在相关理论基础上,分别以1995-2011年29个省区和1999-2010年35个工业行业为对象,借助Hansen r1999)门槛面板的估计方法,更加全面科学地考察了FDI碳排放的门槛效应。省区研究表明：当地区人均收入较高或较低时,FDI有利于“碳减排”；而当收入处于中等水平,FDI将显著增加碳排放。当地区研发投入较低时,FDI对碳排放的积极影响并不显著；当研发投入较高时,FDI的积极影响十分显著；而当研发投入达到更高水平,其积极影响则会有所减弱。当地区人力资本、环境规制较高,或腐败水平较低时,FDI有利于“碳减排”；反之则反是。行业分析表明：当行业研发投入、环境规制较高时,FDI将降低行业碳排放；反之则相反。同时,根据研究期内地区、行业门槛变量的变动趋势,本文发现,FDI对中国碳排放的积极影响正在逐步增强。
其次,为全面考察FDI不同渠道对碳排放的影响,本文在Copeland and Taylor(1994)模型基础上,通过放弃环境税外生、引入FDI对环境规制(环境税)的影响,分析了单一国家、两种产品、两种要素条件下,市场局部均衡时,FDI通过规模、结构、技术和规制等不同渠道对东道国碳排放的影响,完善了现有理论研究框架。而且,在模型分析基础上,分别以2000-2008年30个省区和1999-2008年35个工业行业为研究对象,通过将系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)引入FDI多渠道联立方程研究中,更加全面、稳健地考察了FDI多渠道的碳排放影响。省区研究表明,FDI规模、结构效应显著增加了碳排放,FDI技术效应则有效降低了碳排放,FDI规制效应对碳排放不存在显著抑制；FDI整体增加了地区碳排放。行业分析表明,FDI规模、结构效应导致行业碳排放显著增长；FDI技术效应对“碳减排”有显著积极影响；FDI规制效应对碳排放有轻微抑制作用；FDI整体增加了行业碳排放。
再次,为弥补现有研究在FDI技术溢出碳排放效应方面的欠缺,依托现有经典理论和研究文献,本文梳理了不同FDI技术溢出对碳排放影响的主要途径和作用机制,为后续研究提供了较为完整的理论支撑。而且,分别以1999-2008年35个工业行业、1999-2009年35个工业行业为研究对象,借助DEA-Malmqusit指数测算等实证方法,全面深入地考察了FDI水平溢出对行业碳排放的影响、FDI水平和垂直溢出对行业碳绩效的影响。研究表明：无论是竞争、示范效应,还是人员流动效应,不同渠道的FDI水平溢出均降低了行业碳排放,但人员流动效应更显著；FDI水平、垂直技术溢出对行业碳绩效均有显著积极影响,且不同渠道问存在一定差异：水平方向来看,人员流动效应的影响更加显著；垂直方向来看,FDI后向关联溢出的影响更加显著。
最后,本文在理论分析、实证结论的基础上,从积极创造有利条件、发挥FDI"碳减排”的门槛效应,抑制FDI对碳排放负面渠道影响、发挥积极渠道影响,充分发挥FDI技术溢出、降低碳排放和提升碳绩效等三个方面,对利用FDI促进中国经济低碳转型,提出了有针对性的政策建议。
The impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) on climate change has become one of the major issues all over the world. In2009, the "Copenhagen Accord" has put "to control global warming within2degrees Celsius range"in the states'consensus. Currently, the research on response to climate change, reducing energy consumption, carbon emission abatement has reached an unprecedented height. Since the reform and opening up, China's absorption of FDI has increased continuously, and China has been the top developing country in absorption of FDI during20consecutive years. Meanwhile, China's total CO2emissions has increased from1.483billion tons in1978to8billion tons in2011, and has been the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and then carbon emission per unit output has been three times more than the world average."" Twelfth Five-Year "Plan" pointed out that China should "thoroughly implement the basic national policy of the conservation of resources and environmental protection, save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity, actively respond to climate change, promote the harmony development in economy, population, resources and environment". This means that, under the situation that China'rapid growth in absorption of FDI, taking into account the carbon emissions pressures facing China, and the great importance of "energy saving", studying the impacts of FDI on China's carbon dioxide emissions has an important practical significance.
The research of this paper is conducted in two levels:On the one hand, through the relevant literature review, based on the economics theory in international investment, economic growth and environment, by constructing threshold effects mechanisms of FDI on carbon emissions, deriving a multi-channel theoretical model on the impacts of FDI on carbon emissions, sorting the impacts mechanisms of FDI technology spillover on carbon emissions through different channels, this paper qualitatively analyzed the influence pathways and mechanisms of FDI on China's carbon emissions; on the other hand, on the basis of relevant theories and mechanism, referring to the status and trend of FDI, carbon emission in China, using30provincial-level regions,35industries as research objects, through panel threshold estimation, panel simultaneous equations estimation, and DEA-Malmqusit index calculation, this paper quantitatively measured the effects of FDI on China's carbon emission. The research work is concentrated in the following areas:
Firstly, in order to investigate the influence of heterogeneity factors investment area or industry on carbon emissions effect of FDI, we analyzed the mechanism of FDI threshold effects from per capita income, human capital, research and development, environmental regulation and regional corruption channels, break through the limitations of existing research. Based on the related theoretical analysis, through threshold panel estimation methods, using China's29provinces in1995-2011and35industrial sectors in1999-2010as study objects, this paper empirically studied the threshold effects of FDI on Chinese carbon emissions. Research in region level shows:when per capita income is at higher or lower level, FDI has a more significant positive impact on China's carbon emissions; and when per capita incomes in the middle stage, FDI will significantly increase local carbon emissions. When regional R&D investment is at a low level, the positive impact of FDI on local carbon emissions is not significant; and when local R&D investment reaches a high level, the positive impact of FDI is very significant; while the local R&D investment reaches a higher level, the positive impact will be weakened.When human capital, environmental regulation is at a high level, or corruption is low, FDI will be beneficial to regional carbon emissions abatement; and vice versa. Analysis in industry level shows that:When the industry R&D investment, environmental regulation is in high stage, FDI will reduce carbon emissions in industry sectors; and vice versa. Meanwhile, according to the trends of threshold variables in the region and industry during the study period, we find that the positive impact of FDI on China's carbon emissions is gradually increased.
Secondly, to fully investigate the influence of FDI on the carbon emissions through different channels, based on the theoretical model derived from Copeland and Taylor (1994), by abandoning the assumption of exogenous environmental taxes, introducing the impact of FDI on environmental regulation (environmental tax), this paper briefly analyzes the impact of FDI on carbon emissions through size, structure, technology, and environmental regulation channels, on the condition that there is one country, two elements, and two products, this paper has improved the existing theoretical research framework. Similarly, based on the analysis of related models, putting China's30provinces in2000-2008and35industrial sectors in1999-2008as study objects, using system GMM (SYS-GMM) estimation method, by building the simultaneous equations including the effects of FDI on carbon emission from size, structure, technology, and environmental regulation channels, this paper examines the impacts of FDI on China's carbon emission through various channels. Results from provinces show that, FDI significantly increase regional carbon emissions through size, structure effects channels, FDI significantly reduce regional carbon emissions through technical effects channel, the regulation effects of FDI on local carbon emission is not significantly positive, and the combined result of a variety of effects show that, FDI has increased the total provincial carbon emissions. Industry analysis shows that, FDI will result in a significant growth in industry carbon emissions through scale, structure channels; through technology channels, FDI has a significant positive impact on carbon emissions abatement; through regulatory channels, FDI has a slight inhibition effect on industry carbon emission; combined results from different channels indicate that FDI has increased China's industry carbon emissions.
Thirdly, to compensate for the defects of existing research in effects of FDI spillover on carbon emissions, relying on existing classic literature related, this paper has sorted the main pathways and mechanism how FDI technology spillover influence host countries'carbon emission, has provided a more complete theoretical support for follow-up study. Then, placing35industrial sectors during1999-2008for the study, this paper has investigated the effect of FDI on the industry carbon emissions through horizontal technology spillover; and putting35industrial sectors during1999-2009as study object, using DEA-Malmqusit as the measure index of the industry carbon emissions efficiency, this paper has investigated the effect of FDI on the industry carbon emissions efficiency from horizontal technology spillover, forward technology spillover and backward technology spillover. The research on the horizontal technology spillover effects show that, whether competitive, demonstration effects or staff turnover effects, FDI horizontal technology spillover has reduced carbon emission of all sectors; however, FDI spillover effect from staff turnover is relative more significant. The research on the effects of horizontal, vertical technology spillover on carbon emission efficiency shows that, whether horizontal technology spillover or vertical technology spillover, FDI technology spillover can effectively improve the carbon emission efficiency in industry sectors, and there are some differences between different channels:in the horizontal technology spillovers, the positive impact from staff turnover is more significant; in the vertical technology spillovers, the positive impact from backward spillover is more significant.
Finally, based on the theoretical mechanism and the empirical analysis, this paper has proposed some recommendations to achieve the low carbon economy development The recommendations are as fellow:the government should create the favorable conditions, and take the advantage of FDI's threshold effect on "carbon abatement"; the government should inhibit the negative channels effects of FDI on carbon emission, and take full advantage of the positive channels'effects of FDI; the government should make the best use of FDI technology spillovers'positive impacts on carbon emission, carbon emission efficiency.
本文主要从两个层面对FDI中国碳排放的影响效应展开研究：一方面,通过对国内外相关文献总结,立足国际投资、经济增长和环境污染等相关经典理论,梳理了FDI对碳排放门槛效应作用机制、推导了FDI对碳排放多渠道影响模型、总结了不同FDI技术溢出对碳排放的影响机理,定性分析了FDI对中国碳排放影响的作用途径和机理；另一方面,在相关理论机制、模型分析的基础上,参考中国FDI、碳排放的现状和发展趋势,以中国30个省级地区、35个工业行业为研究对象,借助门槛面板估计、面板联立方程估计、DEA-Malmqusit指数测算等众多实证方法,定量考察了FDI对中国碳排放的客观影响。本文研究工作集中体现在以下几个方面：
首先,为考察投资地区(行业)异质性因素对FDI碳排放效应的影响,本文梳理了FDI对碳排放影响的人均收入、人力资本、研发投入、环境规制和地区腐败等门槛效应,突破了现有研究的局限。而且,在相关理论基础上,分别以1995-2011年29个省区和1999-2010年35个工业行业为对象,借助Hansen r1999)门槛面板的估计方法,更加全面科学地考察了FDI碳排放的门槛效应。省区研究表明：当地区人均收入较高或较低时,FDI有利于“碳减排”；而当收入处于中等水平,FDI将显著增加碳排放。当地区研发投入较低时,FDI对碳排放的积极影响并不显著；当研发投入较高时,FDI的积极影响十分显著；而当研发投入达到更高水平,其积极影响则会有所减弱。当地区人力资本、环境规制较高,或腐败水平较低时,FDI有利于“碳减排”；反之则反是。行业分析表明：当行业研发投入、环境规制较高时,FDI将降低行业碳排放；反之则相反。同时,根据研究期内地区、行业门槛变量的变动趋势,本文发现,FDI对中国碳排放的积极影响正在逐步增强。
其次,为全面考察FDI不同渠道对碳排放的影响,本文在Copeland and Taylor(1994)模型基础上,通过放弃环境税外生、引入FDI对环境规制(环境税)的影响,分析了单一国家、两种产品、两种要素条件下,市场局部均衡时,FDI通过规模、结构、技术和规制等不同渠道对东道国碳排放的影响,完善了现有理论研究框架。而且,在模型分析基础上,分别以2000-2008年30个省区和1999-2008年35个工业行业为研究对象,通过将系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)引入FDI多渠道联立方程研究中,更加全面、稳健地考察了FDI多渠道的碳排放影响。省区研究表明,FDI规模、结构效应显著增加了碳排放,FDI技术效应则有效降低了碳排放,FDI规制效应对碳排放不存在显著抑制；FDI整体增加了地区碳排放。行业分析表明,FDI规模、结构效应导致行业碳排放显著增长；FDI技术效应对“碳减排”有显著积极影响；FDI规制效应对碳排放有轻微抑制作用；FDI整体增加了行业碳排放。
再次,为弥补现有研究在FDI技术溢出碳排放效应方面的欠缺,依托现有经典理论和研究文献,本文梳理了不同FDI技术溢出对碳排放影响的主要途径和作用机制,为后续研究提供了较为完整的理论支撑。而且,分别以1999-2008年35个工业行业、1999-2009年35个工业行业为研究对象,借助DEA-Malmqusit指数测算等实证方法,全面深入地考察了FDI水平溢出对行业碳排放的影响、FDI水平和垂直溢出对行业碳绩效的影响。研究表明：无论是竞争、示范效应,还是人员流动效应,不同渠道的FDI水平溢出均降低了行业碳排放,但人员流动效应更显著；FDI水平、垂直技术溢出对行业碳绩效均有显著积极影响,且不同渠道问存在一定差异：水平方向来看,人员流动效应的影响更加显著；垂直方向来看,FDI后向关联溢出的影响更加显著。
最后,本文在理论分析、实证结论的基础上,从积极创造有利条件、发挥FDI"碳减排”的门槛效应,抑制FDI对碳排放负面渠道影响、发挥积极渠道影响,充分发挥FDI技术溢出、降低碳排放和提升碳绩效等三个方面,对利用FDI促进中国经济低碳转型,提出了有针对性的政策建议。
The impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) on climate change has become one of the major issues all over the world. In2009, the "Copenhagen Accord" has put "to control global warming within2degrees Celsius range"in the states'consensus. Currently, the research on response to climate change, reducing energy consumption, carbon emission abatement has reached an unprecedented height. Since the reform and opening up, China's absorption of FDI has increased continuously, and China has been the top developing country in absorption of FDI during20consecutive years. Meanwhile, China's total CO2emissions has increased from1.483billion tons in1978to8billion tons in2011, and has been the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and then carbon emission per unit output has been three times more than the world average."" Twelfth Five-Year "Plan" pointed out that China should "thoroughly implement the basic national policy of the conservation of resources and environmental protection, save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity, actively respond to climate change, promote the harmony development in economy, population, resources and environment". This means that, under the situation that China'rapid growth in absorption of FDI, taking into account the carbon emissions pressures facing China, and the great importance of "energy saving", studying the impacts of FDI on China's carbon dioxide emissions has an important practical significance.
The research of this paper is conducted in two levels:On the one hand, through the relevant literature review, based on the economics theory in international investment, economic growth and environment, by constructing threshold effects mechanisms of FDI on carbon emissions, deriving a multi-channel theoretical model on the impacts of FDI on carbon emissions, sorting the impacts mechanisms of FDI technology spillover on carbon emissions through different channels, this paper qualitatively analyzed the influence pathways and mechanisms of FDI on China's carbon emissions; on the other hand, on the basis of relevant theories and mechanism, referring to the status and trend of FDI, carbon emission in China, using30provincial-level regions,35industries as research objects, through panel threshold estimation, panel simultaneous equations estimation, and DEA-Malmqusit index calculation, this paper quantitatively measured the effects of FDI on China's carbon emission. The research work is concentrated in the following areas:
Firstly, in order to investigate the influence of heterogeneity factors investment area or industry on carbon emissions effect of FDI, we analyzed the mechanism of FDI threshold effects from per capita income, human capital, research and development, environmental regulation and regional corruption channels, break through the limitations of existing research. Based on the related theoretical analysis, through threshold panel estimation methods, using China's29provinces in1995-2011and35industrial sectors in1999-2010as study objects, this paper empirically studied the threshold effects of FDI on Chinese carbon emissions. Research in region level shows:when per capita income is at higher or lower level, FDI has a more significant positive impact on China's carbon emissions; and when per capita incomes in the middle stage, FDI will significantly increase local carbon emissions. When regional R&D investment is at a low level, the positive impact of FDI on local carbon emissions is not significant; and when local R&D investment reaches a high level, the positive impact of FDI is very significant; while the local R&D investment reaches a higher level, the positive impact will be weakened.When human capital, environmental regulation is at a high level, or corruption is low, FDI will be beneficial to regional carbon emissions abatement; and vice versa. Analysis in industry level shows that:When the industry R&D investment, environmental regulation is in high stage, FDI will reduce carbon emissions in industry sectors; and vice versa. Meanwhile, according to the trends of threshold variables in the region and industry during the study period, we find that the positive impact of FDI on China's carbon emissions is gradually increased.
Secondly, to fully investigate the influence of FDI on the carbon emissions through different channels, based on the theoretical model derived from Copeland and Taylor (1994), by abandoning the assumption of exogenous environmental taxes, introducing the impact of FDI on environmental regulation (environmental tax), this paper briefly analyzes the impact of FDI on carbon emissions through size, structure, technology, and environmental regulation channels, on the condition that there is one country, two elements, and two products, this paper has improved the existing theoretical research framework. Similarly, based on the analysis of related models, putting China's30provinces in2000-2008and35industrial sectors in1999-2008as study objects, using system GMM (SYS-GMM) estimation method, by building the simultaneous equations including the effects of FDI on carbon emission from size, structure, technology, and environmental regulation channels, this paper examines the impacts of FDI on China's carbon emission through various channels. Results from provinces show that, FDI significantly increase regional carbon emissions through size, structure effects channels, FDI significantly reduce regional carbon emissions through technical effects channel, the regulation effects of FDI on local carbon emission is not significantly positive, and the combined result of a variety of effects show that, FDI has increased the total provincial carbon emissions. Industry analysis shows that, FDI will result in a significant growth in industry carbon emissions through scale, structure channels; through technology channels, FDI has a significant positive impact on carbon emissions abatement; through regulatory channels, FDI has a slight inhibition effect on industry carbon emission; combined results from different channels indicate that FDI has increased China's industry carbon emissions.
Thirdly, to compensate for the defects of existing research in effects of FDI spillover on carbon emissions, relying on existing classic literature related, this paper has sorted the main pathways and mechanism how FDI technology spillover influence host countries'carbon emission, has provided a more complete theoretical support for follow-up study. Then, placing35industrial sectors during1999-2008for the study, this paper has investigated the effect of FDI on the industry carbon emissions through horizontal technology spillover; and putting35industrial sectors during1999-2009as study object, using DEA-Malmqusit as the measure index of the industry carbon emissions efficiency, this paper has investigated the effect of FDI on the industry carbon emissions efficiency from horizontal technology spillover, forward technology spillover and backward technology spillover. The research on the horizontal technology spillover effects show that, whether competitive, demonstration effects or staff turnover effects, FDI horizontal technology spillover has reduced carbon emission of all sectors; however, FDI spillover effect from staff turnover is relative more significant. The research on the effects of horizontal, vertical technology spillover on carbon emission efficiency shows that, whether horizontal technology spillover or vertical technology spillover, FDI technology spillover can effectively improve the carbon emission efficiency in industry sectors, and there are some differences between different channels:in the horizontal technology spillovers, the positive impact from staff turnover is more significant; in the vertical technology spillovers, the positive impact from backward spillover is more significant.
Finally, based on the theoretical mechanism and the empirical analysis, this paper has proposed some recommendations to achieve the low carbon economy development The recommendations are as fellow:the government should create the favorable conditions, and take the advantage of FDI's threshold effect on "carbon abatement"; the government should inhibit the negative channels effects of FDI on carbon emission, and take full advantage of the positive channels'effects of FDI; the government should make the best use of FDI technology spillovers'positive impacts on carbon emission, carbon emission efficiency.
引文
① 数据源自相应年份的《中国统计年鉴》,经作者整理得到。
② 数据源自国际能源署(IEA)《IEA CO2 Highlights 2013》,经作者整理得到。
① 数据来源UNCTAD《2010年国际投资报告》。
② 数据来源UNCTAD《2010年国际投资报告》。根据该报告的定义,低碳国际投资是指,跨国公司通过股权或非股权的形式,通过向东道国转让生产技术、工艺和产品的途径,从而实现东道国相关产品生产和服务提供中温室气体排放的投资模式。通常来说,低碳国际投资包括两类：一类是,采用低碳生产工序,实现产品制造过程中温室气体排放的减少或消除；另一类是,提供在使用方式上能够降低温室气体排放的低碳产品和服务。
① 图中数据主要源《能源统计年鉴》和《中国统计年鉴》,经作者处理后得到；其中外资进入度为“三资”企业年平均人数占行业年平均职工的总人数的比重。
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② 数据源自国际能源署(IEA)《IEA CO2 Highlights 2013》,经作者整理得到。
① 数据来源UNCTAD《2010年国际投资报告》。
② 数据来源UNCTAD《2010年国际投资报告》。根据该报告的定义,低碳国际投资是指,跨国公司通过股权或非股权的形式,通过向东道国转让生产技术、工艺和产品的途径,从而实现东道国相关产品生产和服务提供中温室气体排放的投资模式。通常来说,低碳国际投资包括两类：一类是,采用低碳生产工序,实现产品制造过程中温室气体排放的减少或消除；另一类是,提供在使用方式上能够降低温室气体排放的低碳产品和服务。
① 图中数据主要源《能源统计年鉴》和《中国统计年鉴》,经作者处理后得到；其中外资进入度为“三资”企业年平均人数占行业年平均职工的总人数的比重。
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