中国西北主要农作物对气候变化的响应
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摘要
气候变化已对全球生态系统和社会经济系统产生了很大影响,受到各国政府和全球科学家的普遍关注。我国是农业大国,正处在从传统农业向现代农业发展的关键时期,农业科技水平有待提高,如何认识和适应气候变化对我国农业的影响,是目前需要研究的紧迫课题。本论文选择气候变化的敏感区和农业生产的脆弱区——我国西北地区,利用长期气象、农业监测和试验资料,开展西北主要农作物水分利用效率、生长发育、产量、种植结构、农田水分、农田蒸散等对气候变化的响应研究,认识气候变化对西北农业的影响规律,为应对气候变化、确保农业可持续发展提供科学依据,主要研究结果有：
在西北干旱区,气候变暖导致了主要农作物玉米、春小麦水分利用效率减小,而灌溉量的增加加大了减小速率；在西北半干旱区,气候变暖、局地降水增加导致了主要农作物马铃薯水分利用效率减小,而降水减少导致了主要农作物冬小麦水分利用效率增加。受气候变暖的影响,作物春玉米、春小麦、冬小麦水分利用效率随着生长期水分供给量的增加均呈指数或抛物线型减小,没有出现中等供水条件下作物水分利用效率的最高值。玉米、春小麦、马铃薯水分利用效率供水关键期和供水项分别为抽雄-乳熟期灌水、开花-成熟期灌水、开花期降水,冬小麦水分利用效率供水关键期和供水项为拔节和乳熟期降水量。温度升高对作物水分利用效率有负效应,随着温度升高玉米、春小麦、冬小麦水分利用效率呈抛物线型减小。玉米对拔节-抽雄期平均最低温度、春小麦对孕穗-成熟期平均最高温度、冬小麦和马铃薯对0℃以上的平均温度最敏感,反映了不同区域各种作物不同的生理适应特征。
春季增温导致西北春播作物春小麦、春玉米、棉花播种期明显提前,而马铃薯播种期受土壤水分影响,对温度变化响应不敏感。秋季增温使秋播作物冬小麦播种期推迟,但秋播作物的播种时间更易受人为的影响。增温加快了作物生长速度,导致西北有限生长习性作物春小麦、玉米、冬小麦生长期缩短；春季变暖使作物播种期提前,秋季变暖使作物停止生长期或可收期推迟,最终导致无限生长习性作物棉花、马铃薯生长期延长。
温度是影响西北干旱灌溉区作物产量的主要气候因子,而半干旱雨养农业区作物产量则受温度、降水的共同影响。增温使干旱灌溉区喜热作物棉花、玉米产量增加,春小麦产量下降,半干旱雨养农业区越冬作物冬小麦产量增加。气候暖干化使半干旱雨养农业区马铃薯产量减小。
气候变暖使得棉花、玉米等高热量需求的作物种植面积扩大,也使得冬小麦、冬油菜等越冬作物种植面积扩大,春小麦种植面积则减少。干旱区作物种植格局由春小麦为主转变为玉米、棉花、冬小麦为主；半干旱区由小麦为主转变为玉米、马铃薯、冬小麦、冬油菜为主。气候变暖为西北作物种植结构格局调整提供了自然气候环境条件,.而人们增加经济收益的行动使作物种植结构格局调整最终得以实现。气候变化引起的农作物种植结构变化对粮食安全具有潜在威胁,这是一种农业内部种植结构调整对粮食安全带来的威胁。
气候变暖、降水减少使西北黄土高原农田土壤储水量逐年减少,农田趋于干旱化；同时,降水减少使西北黄土高原农田蒸散逐年减少；降水的逐年减少可能是西北黄土高原土壤干旱化的根本原因。
Climate change has markedly affected global ecosystem and drawn great attention from the governments of various countries and scientists. Agriculture is a main source of the economy and the science and technique levels about agricultural production get behind in China. How will China agriculture cope with climate change? This is an urgent question that is required to study. In this paper, based on long-time observation and experimentation data about weather and Agriculture, response of main crops to climate change is investigated in the northwest of China. The following main conclusions can be drawn from the study:
Climate warming made water use efficiency (WUE) of spring wheat and corn decrease in arid areas of northwest China and irrigation water adding quickened this decrease rate. Both climate warming and drying made water use efficiency of potato decrease and precipitation reducing made water use efficiency of winter wheat increase in semi-arid areas of northwest China. In climate warming, water use efficiencies of spring wheat, winter wheat and corn decreased when the supplied water added. And the most WUE in medium supplied water had been found. The key growth phases and water items of WUE of corn and spring wheat were the irrigation water of shooting to milk maturity and flowering to maturity, respectively. But the key growth phases and water items of WUE of winter wheat and potato were the precipitation of squaring, milk maturity and flowering, respectively. A rise in temperature cut down the WUE of spring wheat, winter wheat and corn.
A rise in temperature brought forward the seeding time of cotton, spring wheat and corn in spring while postponed the seeding time of winter wheat in autumn. An increase in temperature quickened spring wheat, corn and winter wheat growth and cut down the growth period of these crops. Spring warming made earlier cotton and potato seeding time and autumn warming made later these crops growth stopping time, which extended the growth period of cotton and potato.
The temperature is the main factor affecting crop yield in arid irrigated areas of northwest China. Both temperature and precipitation affect crop yield in semi-arid rain feed agriculture areas. A rise in temperature made yields of corn and cotton in favor of heat add and yield of spring wheat decrease in arid irrigated areas and yield of winter wheat living through the winter increase in semi-arid rain feed agriculture areas. And climate warming and drying made potato yield decrease.
The seeding acreage of corn and cotton in favor of heat and winter wheat and winter cole living through the winter added and the seeding acreage of spring wheat decreased in climate warming in northwest China. The planting pattern that spring sweat was dominant crop changed to pattern that corn, cotton and winter wheat predominated in arid areas. The planting pattern that wheat was dominant crop changed to pattern that corn, potato, winter wheat and winter cole predominated in semi-arid areas. Climate warming offered this change of planting pattern weather conditions and agricultural activities that people sought more income made this change achieve. This change of planting pattern may bring grain security latency imperilment.
Climate warming and drying resulted in a diminishing trend of soil water year after year on loess plateau in northwest China. Precipitation reducing resulted in a decreasing tendency of evaporation of cropland year after year in this region. And the precipitation reducing may be the main climate factor of soil drying year after year on loess plateau.
在西北干旱区,气候变暖导致了主要农作物玉米、春小麦水分利用效率减小,而灌溉量的增加加大了减小速率；在西北半干旱区,气候变暖、局地降水增加导致了主要农作物马铃薯水分利用效率减小,而降水减少导致了主要农作物冬小麦水分利用效率增加。受气候变暖的影响,作物春玉米、春小麦、冬小麦水分利用效率随着生长期水分供给量的增加均呈指数或抛物线型减小,没有出现中等供水条件下作物水分利用效率的最高值。玉米、春小麦、马铃薯水分利用效率供水关键期和供水项分别为抽雄-乳熟期灌水、开花-成熟期灌水、开花期降水,冬小麦水分利用效率供水关键期和供水项为拔节和乳熟期降水量。温度升高对作物水分利用效率有负效应,随着温度升高玉米、春小麦、冬小麦水分利用效率呈抛物线型减小。玉米对拔节-抽雄期平均最低温度、春小麦对孕穗-成熟期平均最高温度、冬小麦和马铃薯对0℃以上的平均温度最敏感,反映了不同区域各种作物不同的生理适应特征。
春季增温导致西北春播作物春小麦、春玉米、棉花播种期明显提前,而马铃薯播种期受土壤水分影响,对温度变化响应不敏感。秋季增温使秋播作物冬小麦播种期推迟,但秋播作物的播种时间更易受人为的影响。增温加快了作物生长速度,导致西北有限生长习性作物春小麦、玉米、冬小麦生长期缩短；春季变暖使作物播种期提前,秋季变暖使作物停止生长期或可收期推迟,最终导致无限生长习性作物棉花、马铃薯生长期延长。
温度是影响西北干旱灌溉区作物产量的主要气候因子,而半干旱雨养农业区作物产量则受温度、降水的共同影响。增温使干旱灌溉区喜热作物棉花、玉米产量增加,春小麦产量下降,半干旱雨养农业区越冬作物冬小麦产量增加。气候暖干化使半干旱雨养农业区马铃薯产量减小。
气候变暖使得棉花、玉米等高热量需求的作物种植面积扩大,也使得冬小麦、冬油菜等越冬作物种植面积扩大,春小麦种植面积则减少。干旱区作物种植格局由春小麦为主转变为玉米、棉花、冬小麦为主；半干旱区由小麦为主转变为玉米、马铃薯、冬小麦、冬油菜为主。气候变暖为西北作物种植结构格局调整提供了自然气候环境条件,.而人们增加经济收益的行动使作物种植结构格局调整最终得以实现。气候变化引起的农作物种植结构变化对粮食安全具有潜在威胁,这是一种农业内部种植结构调整对粮食安全带来的威胁。
气候变暖、降水减少使西北黄土高原农田土壤储水量逐年减少,农田趋于干旱化；同时,降水减少使西北黄土高原农田蒸散逐年减少；降水的逐年减少可能是西北黄土高原土壤干旱化的根本原因。
Climate change has markedly affected global ecosystem and drawn great attention from the governments of various countries and scientists. Agriculture is a main source of the economy and the science and technique levels about agricultural production get behind in China. How will China agriculture cope with climate change? This is an urgent question that is required to study. In this paper, based on long-time observation and experimentation data about weather and Agriculture, response of main crops to climate change is investigated in the northwest of China. The following main conclusions can be drawn from the study:
Climate warming made water use efficiency (WUE) of spring wheat and corn decrease in arid areas of northwest China and irrigation water adding quickened this decrease rate. Both climate warming and drying made water use efficiency of potato decrease and precipitation reducing made water use efficiency of winter wheat increase in semi-arid areas of northwest China. In climate warming, water use efficiencies of spring wheat, winter wheat and corn decreased when the supplied water added. And the most WUE in medium supplied water had been found. The key growth phases and water items of WUE of corn and spring wheat were the irrigation water of shooting to milk maturity and flowering to maturity, respectively. But the key growth phases and water items of WUE of winter wheat and potato were the precipitation of squaring, milk maturity and flowering, respectively. A rise in temperature cut down the WUE of spring wheat, winter wheat and corn.
A rise in temperature brought forward the seeding time of cotton, spring wheat and corn in spring while postponed the seeding time of winter wheat in autumn. An increase in temperature quickened spring wheat, corn and winter wheat growth and cut down the growth period of these crops. Spring warming made earlier cotton and potato seeding time and autumn warming made later these crops growth stopping time, which extended the growth period of cotton and potato.
The temperature is the main factor affecting crop yield in arid irrigated areas of northwest China. Both temperature and precipitation affect crop yield in semi-arid rain feed agriculture areas. A rise in temperature made yields of corn and cotton in favor of heat add and yield of spring wheat decrease in arid irrigated areas and yield of winter wheat living through the winter increase in semi-arid rain feed agriculture areas. And climate warming and drying made potato yield decrease.
The seeding acreage of corn and cotton in favor of heat and winter wheat and winter cole living through the winter added and the seeding acreage of spring wheat decreased in climate warming in northwest China. The planting pattern that spring sweat was dominant crop changed to pattern that corn, cotton and winter wheat predominated in arid areas. The planting pattern that wheat was dominant crop changed to pattern that corn, potato, winter wheat and winter cole predominated in semi-arid areas. Climate warming offered this change of planting pattern weather conditions and agricultural activities that people sought more income made this change achieve. This change of planting pattern may bring grain security latency imperilment.
Climate warming and drying resulted in a diminishing trend of soil water year after year on loess plateau in northwest China. Precipitation reducing resulted in a decreasing tendency of evaporation of cropland year after year in this region. And the precipitation reducing may be the main climate factor of soil drying year after year on loess plateau.
引文
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