人口年龄结构变动与中国居民消费：理论与实证
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摘要
中国已经进入经济转型的中期,随着市场化、城市化和科学技术的不断发展,我国经济获得了飞速发展,然而在经济高速增长的同时,我国居民消费率却呈现出长期的下降趋势。居民消费率过低导致国内有效消费需求不足,则可能影响我国经济平稳持续发展。本文以人口年龄结构为视角,对人口年龄结构变动与居民消费的关系进行了理论和实证上的研究,借鉴消费经济学理论中的人口年龄结构指标,构建引入人口年龄结构变量的居民消费函数模型,利用我国人口年龄结构等解释变量的宏观面板数据和时间序列数据对模型进行实证检验。
传统上,人们习惯于用收入的变化来解释居民消费行为,比如凯恩斯的绝对收入模型和佛里德曼的持久收入模型,然而这些模型都忽略了人口年龄特征这一重要的人口结构因素对消费的影响。那么人口年龄结构与居民消费之间的关系究竟是怎样的?上世纪80年代以后我国的高增长率是不是直接或间接由人口年龄结构的变化导致的?人口年龄结构变动在居民消费中究竟扮演着怎样的角色?对这些问题的研究将对我国实现从投资驱动型和出口驱动型向消费驱动型经济增长方式转变,保持我国经济持续健康稳定发展具有积极的现实意义,对于我国经济政策和人口政策的制定具有重要的理论价值。
从人口年龄结构视角分析我国居民消费率问题有助于我们从宏观角度分析人口老龄化对中国未来经济运行的影响。人口老龄化通过对微观家庭消费影响的综合效应,在宏观层面上对整个社会的消费与储蓄产生影响,进而对整个国家国民经济的运行产生影响。随着我国老龄化不断加剧以及老年人口数量的急剧增多,必然会影响我国总储蓄量与总消费量的变动,进而影响我国宏观经济发展态势。因此,本文的研究可以作为制定未来人口政策和经济政策的参考,也可以更好地分析经济增长、人口变动与消费和储蓄之间的关系,把握它们内在的发展规律,对于保持我国经济可持续发展具有极强的现实意义。
本文首先对国内外消费函数研究成果以及有关人口年龄结构与消费关系的理论文献与经验文献进行梳理、综述,比较分析了各种消费行为假说的异同和消费函数之间的差异,从中得到后续研究展开的理论和技术支持；其次概括了建国以来我国人口年龄结构转型的历史演变过程、原因、特点,以及所面临的人口老龄化的挑战。并从纵向历史对比与横向国际比较两个维度分析我国居民低消费率的现状,主要运用相关图表、数据对我国居民消费率的现状进行了翔实的描述、说明,得出我国居民消费率偏低的结论；随后从居民收入占比与居民消费倾向两个角度分析了影响我国居民消费率的因素,得出人口年龄结构变动是影响居民消费的因素之一。接着着重分析了人口年龄结构变动影响居民消费的作用机理以及具体途径,并对国内外关于人口年龄结构与居民消费行为的经验研究进行了论述；然后对人口年龄结构变动和居民消费的关系进行了实证研究：包括本文中消费者行为假定,纳入人口年龄结构变量的中国居民消费函数模型的构建,运用中国2000-2009年省级面板数据,分别对全国层面、分区域层面中国居民消费函数模型进行验证。实证结果发现,人口结构因素对居民消费率有着显著的影响,其中,少儿抚养比、老年抚养比与居民消费率之间分别存在正相关关系和负相关关系。然而,在单独对东、中、西部地区的研究中却发现,抚养比与居民消费率的关系并不与全国保持一致,这些差别反映了区域间经济社会发展差距以及不同地区老龄化程度的差异。考虑到人口年龄结构变量要在较长时间内才具有足够的离散度,本文还运用协整理论,对中国1978-2009年宏观时间序列数据进行了实证检验。实证结果表明,人口年龄结构变量与居民消费率之间存在协整关系,揭示了人口年龄结构变量与居民消费率之间的长期均衡关系。格兰杰因果关系检验表明,人口抚养比与居民消费率之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系,在此基础上,进一步考察了少儿抚养比和老年抚养比冲击各自对我国居民消费率的影响,发现老年抚养比的冲击对我国居民消费率的影响更大；最后根据实证研究结果,全面总结了人口年龄结构变动对于中国居民消费的影响,并提出相应的政策建议,同时对论文存在的不足和进一步的研究方向进行说明和展望。
China has entered the medium-term period of economic transformation, with the continuous development of market, urbanization, science and technology, China's economy gained rapid development. However, along with rapid economic growth, China's consumption rate has shown a long-term downward trend. The low consumption rate leads to lack of effective domestic consumer demand, it may affect the steady and continuous development of China's economy. From the perspective of the population age structure, this paper studied the relationship between the changes in population age structure and the resident's consumption rate from the theoretical and empirical point of view, Referencing the indicator population age structure of consumer economics theory, established a consumption function model that include the variable population age structure, then made an empirical test of the model using China's macro-panel data and time series data about the explanatory variables such as population age structure.
Traditionally, people used to use the changes in income to explain consumer behavior, such as Keynes's absolute income model and Friedman's permanent income model, but these models have ignored the impact of population age structure on consumer, which is an important population structure factor. Then what's the relationship between population age structure and consumption rate? Is China's high growth rate caused directly or indirectly by population age structure changes after the 1980s? What kind of role the population age structure changes is playing in the resident's consumption? Research on these issues has a positive practical significance and an important theoretical value to realize China's economic growth pattern from investment-driven and export-driven to consumer-driven, maintain healthy and stable development of China's economy and help formulate China's economic policy and population policy.
From the perspective of population age structure to research China's consumption rate will help us to analysis the impact of population aging on China's future economic performance from a macro point of view. By combined effect of the impact to micro-household consumption, population aging affects the whole society's consumption and savings at the macro level, and further has an impact to the operation of the entire national economic.With the growing of China's aging population and the rapid increase in China's elderly population, it will inevitably affect the amount of China's total savings and total consumption, thereby affect the development of China's macro-economic situation. Therefore, this study can serve as a reference to develop the future population policies and economic policies, to better analyze the relationship between economic growth, population changes and consumption or savings, to grasp their inner law of development, it has a strong practical significance to maintain China's sustainable economic development.
First, this paper reviewed the related study about domestic and foreign consumption function, and the theory literature and empirical literature on the relationship between population age structure and consumption, compared the similarities and differences in various hypotheses of consumer behavior and the consumption function, from which getting the theoretical and technical support for the follow-up study; Second, the author summarized the historical evolution process, causes and characteristics of China's population age structure transformation since the founding of New China, and cited the challenges of aging population that we are facing. From two dimensions of vertical historical comparison and horizontal international contrast, the research mainly used related charts and data to describe and explain the resident's present situation on their consumption rate, and concluded that China's consumption rate was low; Then, this dissertation analyzed the factors that affected consumption rate from two perspectives of the proportion of income and consumer tendency, obtained that changes in population age structure was one of the factors affecting resident's consumption. Next, the author focused on analyzing the mechanism and the specific ways the population age structure changes influenced the consumer, and discoursed the domestic and foreign empirical studies about the population age structure and the consumer behavior; Then the paper made an empirical study on the relationship between population age structure changes and resident's consumption rate, it included the assumptions about consumer behavior and the construction of China's consumption function model that the variable population age structure was included in. The author used China's provincial panel data during 2000-2009 to test the consumption function model at the national level and the sub-regional level, the empirical results found that the demographic structure factors had significant impacts on consumption rate. The consumption rate was positively correlated with the youth dependency rate, but negatively correlated with the old dependency rate. However, the relationship between consumption rate and dependency rate in east, middle and west areas did'nt keep pace with the whole country. The differences reflected the economic and social development gap between regions and the differences among the degree of aging in different areas. Taking into account the variables population age structure does' nt have sufficient dispersion until in a long time, this article also used cointegration theory to make an empirical test of China's 1978-2009 macro-economic time series data. The empirical results showed that there wss a cointegration relationship between population age structure and consumption rate, revealing the long-run equilibrium relationship between population age structure and consumption rate. Granger causality test showed that there was a one-way granger causality between dependency ratio and consumption rate.basing on this, the author examined the impacts of the children dependency ratio and the old age dependency ratio on China's consumption rate, found that the impact of old age dependency ratio on China's consumption rate was greater. Finally, according to the empirical research results, the paper conducted a comprehensive summary about the impact of changes in population age structure on China's consumer, made some appropriate policy suggestions, and also described the problems and further research fields.
传统上,人们习惯于用收入的变化来解释居民消费行为,比如凯恩斯的绝对收入模型和佛里德曼的持久收入模型,然而这些模型都忽略了人口年龄特征这一重要的人口结构因素对消费的影响。那么人口年龄结构与居民消费之间的关系究竟是怎样的?上世纪80年代以后我国的高增长率是不是直接或间接由人口年龄结构的变化导致的?人口年龄结构变动在居民消费中究竟扮演着怎样的角色?对这些问题的研究将对我国实现从投资驱动型和出口驱动型向消费驱动型经济增长方式转变,保持我国经济持续健康稳定发展具有积极的现实意义,对于我国经济政策和人口政策的制定具有重要的理论价值。
从人口年龄结构视角分析我国居民消费率问题有助于我们从宏观角度分析人口老龄化对中国未来经济运行的影响。人口老龄化通过对微观家庭消费影响的综合效应,在宏观层面上对整个社会的消费与储蓄产生影响,进而对整个国家国民经济的运行产生影响。随着我国老龄化不断加剧以及老年人口数量的急剧增多,必然会影响我国总储蓄量与总消费量的变动,进而影响我国宏观经济发展态势。因此,本文的研究可以作为制定未来人口政策和经济政策的参考,也可以更好地分析经济增长、人口变动与消费和储蓄之间的关系,把握它们内在的发展规律,对于保持我国经济可持续发展具有极强的现实意义。
本文首先对国内外消费函数研究成果以及有关人口年龄结构与消费关系的理论文献与经验文献进行梳理、综述,比较分析了各种消费行为假说的异同和消费函数之间的差异,从中得到后续研究展开的理论和技术支持；其次概括了建国以来我国人口年龄结构转型的历史演变过程、原因、特点,以及所面临的人口老龄化的挑战。并从纵向历史对比与横向国际比较两个维度分析我国居民低消费率的现状,主要运用相关图表、数据对我国居民消费率的现状进行了翔实的描述、说明,得出我国居民消费率偏低的结论；随后从居民收入占比与居民消费倾向两个角度分析了影响我国居民消费率的因素,得出人口年龄结构变动是影响居民消费的因素之一。接着着重分析了人口年龄结构变动影响居民消费的作用机理以及具体途径,并对国内外关于人口年龄结构与居民消费行为的经验研究进行了论述；然后对人口年龄结构变动和居民消费的关系进行了实证研究：包括本文中消费者行为假定,纳入人口年龄结构变量的中国居民消费函数模型的构建,运用中国2000-2009年省级面板数据,分别对全国层面、分区域层面中国居民消费函数模型进行验证。实证结果发现,人口结构因素对居民消费率有着显著的影响,其中,少儿抚养比、老年抚养比与居民消费率之间分别存在正相关关系和负相关关系。然而,在单独对东、中、西部地区的研究中却发现,抚养比与居民消费率的关系并不与全国保持一致,这些差别反映了区域间经济社会发展差距以及不同地区老龄化程度的差异。考虑到人口年龄结构变量要在较长时间内才具有足够的离散度,本文还运用协整理论,对中国1978-2009年宏观时间序列数据进行了实证检验。实证结果表明,人口年龄结构变量与居民消费率之间存在协整关系,揭示了人口年龄结构变量与居民消费率之间的长期均衡关系。格兰杰因果关系检验表明,人口抚养比与居民消费率之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系,在此基础上,进一步考察了少儿抚养比和老年抚养比冲击各自对我国居民消费率的影响,发现老年抚养比的冲击对我国居民消费率的影响更大；最后根据实证研究结果,全面总结了人口年龄结构变动对于中国居民消费的影响,并提出相应的政策建议,同时对论文存在的不足和进一步的研究方向进行说明和展望。
China has entered the medium-term period of economic transformation, with the continuous development of market, urbanization, science and technology, China's economy gained rapid development. However, along with rapid economic growth, China's consumption rate has shown a long-term downward trend. The low consumption rate leads to lack of effective domestic consumer demand, it may affect the steady and continuous development of China's economy. From the perspective of the population age structure, this paper studied the relationship between the changes in population age structure and the resident's consumption rate from the theoretical and empirical point of view, Referencing the indicator population age structure of consumer economics theory, established a consumption function model that include the variable population age structure, then made an empirical test of the model using China's macro-panel data and time series data about the explanatory variables such as population age structure.
Traditionally, people used to use the changes in income to explain consumer behavior, such as Keynes's absolute income model and Friedman's permanent income model, but these models have ignored the impact of population age structure on consumer, which is an important population structure factor. Then what's the relationship between population age structure and consumption rate? Is China's high growth rate caused directly or indirectly by population age structure changes after the 1980s? What kind of role the population age structure changes is playing in the resident's consumption? Research on these issues has a positive practical significance and an important theoretical value to realize China's economic growth pattern from investment-driven and export-driven to consumer-driven, maintain healthy and stable development of China's economy and help formulate China's economic policy and population policy.
From the perspective of population age structure to research China's consumption rate will help us to analysis the impact of population aging on China's future economic performance from a macro point of view. By combined effect of the impact to micro-household consumption, population aging affects the whole society's consumption and savings at the macro level, and further has an impact to the operation of the entire national economic.With the growing of China's aging population and the rapid increase in China's elderly population, it will inevitably affect the amount of China's total savings and total consumption, thereby affect the development of China's macro-economic situation. Therefore, this study can serve as a reference to develop the future population policies and economic policies, to better analyze the relationship between economic growth, population changes and consumption or savings, to grasp their inner law of development, it has a strong practical significance to maintain China's sustainable economic development.
First, this paper reviewed the related study about domestic and foreign consumption function, and the theory literature and empirical literature on the relationship between population age structure and consumption, compared the similarities and differences in various hypotheses of consumer behavior and the consumption function, from which getting the theoretical and technical support for the follow-up study; Second, the author summarized the historical evolution process, causes and characteristics of China's population age structure transformation since the founding of New China, and cited the challenges of aging population that we are facing. From two dimensions of vertical historical comparison and horizontal international contrast, the research mainly used related charts and data to describe and explain the resident's present situation on their consumption rate, and concluded that China's consumption rate was low; Then, this dissertation analyzed the factors that affected consumption rate from two perspectives of the proportion of income and consumer tendency, obtained that changes in population age structure was one of the factors affecting resident's consumption. Next, the author focused on analyzing the mechanism and the specific ways the population age structure changes influenced the consumer, and discoursed the domestic and foreign empirical studies about the population age structure and the consumer behavior; Then the paper made an empirical study on the relationship between population age structure changes and resident's consumption rate, it included the assumptions about consumer behavior and the construction of China's consumption function model that the variable population age structure was included in. The author used China's provincial panel data during 2000-2009 to test the consumption function model at the national level and the sub-regional level, the empirical results found that the demographic structure factors had significant impacts on consumption rate. The consumption rate was positively correlated with the youth dependency rate, but negatively correlated with the old dependency rate. However, the relationship between consumption rate and dependency rate in east, middle and west areas did'nt keep pace with the whole country. The differences reflected the economic and social development gap between regions and the differences among the degree of aging in different areas. Taking into account the variables population age structure does' nt have sufficient dispersion until in a long time, this article also used cointegration theory to make an empirical test of China's 1978-2009 macro-economic time series data. The empirical results showed that there wss a cointegration relationship between population age structure and consumption rate, revealing the long-run equilibrium relationship between population age structure and consumption rate. Granger causality test showed that there was a one-way granger causality between dependency ratio and consumption rate.basing on this, the author examined the impacts of the children dependency ratio and the old age dependency ratio on China's consumption rate, found that the impact of old age dependency ratio on China's consumption rate was greater. Finally, according to the empirical research results, the paper conducted a comprehensive summary about the impact of changes in population age structure on China's consumer, made some appropriate policy suggestions, and also described the problems and further research fields.
引文
①最终消费包括政府消费和居民消费,这里特指居民消费。
①凯恩斯提出的消费倾向=消费量/收入量,这是平均消费倾向,其边际消费倾向=消费增量/收入增量=△C/△Y,它是按照越来越小的规律变化的。
②凯恩斯的投资乘数理论是：在一定的边际消费倾向下,新增加的一定量的投资经过一定时间后,可导致收入与就业量数倍的增加,或导致数倍于投资量的GDP。这个理论可用下面的公式概括：△GDP:△I.K,式中△I为新增投资,K为投资乘数,K=1/(1-△C/△Y)=1/(1-消费增量/收入增量)=1/边际储蓄倾向。凯恩斯的投资乘数理论是在社会总收入与总消费的基础上,基于边际消费倾向而产生的宏观投资理论,它没有专门分析区域经济和产业经济中投资拉动问题。
③凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].商务印书馆,1999：101.
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②蔡防.人口转变、人口红利与经济增长可持续性——兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长[J].人口研究,2004(2)：2-9.
③于学军.中国人口转变与“战略机遇期”[J].中国人口科学,2003(1)：9-14.
④陈友华.人口红利与人口负债：数量界定、经验观察与理论思考[J].人口研究,2005(6)：21-27.
①国家人口发展战略研究课题组.国家人口发展战略研究[J].人口研究,2007(1)：1-10.
①白雪梅.教育与收入不平等：中国的经验研究[J].管理世界,2004(6)：24-27.
①龚志民.消费经济学前沿[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2002：213.
②贺菊煌.中美两国储蓄率差异的分析[J].冶金经济与管理,1998(6)：56-59.
①“人口红利”除了强调廉价劳动力对在经济增长中的作用外,它还会引起全要素生产率的提高,从而促进经济增长、提高人均产出、增加居民消费(Kogel,2005)。
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②凯恩斯的投资乘数理论是：在一定的边际消费倾向下,新增加的一定量的投资经过一定时间后,可导致收入与就业量数倍的增加,或导致数倍于投资量的GDP。这个理论可用下面的公式概括：△GDP:△I.K,式中△I为新增投资,K为投资乘数,K=1/(1-△C/△Y)=1/(1-消费增量/收入增量)=1/边际储蓄倾向。凯恩斯的投资乘数理论是在社会总收入与总消费的基础上,基于边际消费倾向而产生的宏观投资理论,它没有专门分析区域经济和产业经济中投资拉动问题。
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①“人口红利”除了强调廉价劳动力对在经济增长中的作用外,它还会引起全要素生产率的提高,从而促进经济增长、提高人均产出、增加居民消费(Kogel,2005)。
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