韩国对外直接投资的发展轨迹及其绩效研究
摘要
本文研究的主要目的是对韩国对外直接投资对国内经济的效应进行实证分析,并概括总结韩国对外直接投资的经验与教训,进而为中国发展对外直接投资促进国内经济发展提出相关的政策建议。
本文研究采用实证分析与规范分析相结合的方法。在实证分析部分,本研究基于理论前提,提出假设,然后根据研究的需要,并参考国外相关研究成果的基础上构建适宜模型,最后选取适当的样本对假设进行检验。在规范分析部分,本文研究对韩国对外直接投资的历程与政策进行了总结和评价。基于上述实证分析与规范分析的研究结果,总结韩国对外直接投资的经验与教训,并结合中国对外直接投资的现状,提出促进和完善我国对外直接投资的相关建议。
通过对韩国对外直接投资的历程与政策进行定性分析,得到的主要结论如下:第一,根据韩国对外直接投资的发展特点,将其分为三大阶段:第一阶段是1968-1980年,是对外直接投资的初级阶段;第二阶段是1981-1997年,是对外直接投资的快速发展阶段;第三阶段是1998-至今,是对外直接投资的高速发展阶段,并在对每个阶段做出详尽分析的基础上,进一步提出目前韩国对外直接投资所存在的问题。第二,梳理了韩国对外直接投资的支持制度并总结了韩国对外直接投资的政策变迁。首先,对支持制度从五个角度进行了描述:即金融、保险、税收、情报信息以及安全投资环境。其次,把韩国对外直接投资的政策变迁分为五个阶段进行定性分析:即制度引入的初级阶段(1968-1974),制度调整阶段(1975-1979),奖励阶段(1980-1985),快速发展阶段(1986-1993)及自由化阶段(1994-至今)。分别从投资重点、投资认证制度、投资条件、投资限制制度、筹措自有资金比例以及金融支持制度六方面概括这五个阶段的演变特点。
本研究的重点在于实证分析了韩国对外直接投资对国际贸易收支、就业以及产业结构调整的影响,规范分析了其对国内技术创新和产业空洞化的影响。
实证分析韩国对外直接投资对国际贸易收支的影响,选取了1991年-2004年为样本期,使用的是韩国银行统计的数据。由于韩国制造业在对外直接投资与国民经济中一直占有很大的比重,因此,本研究从其对外直接投资对国内制造业的出口的引致效应、出口替代效应和逆进口效应的角度进行了回归分析。实证分析的结果是韩国对外直接投资到目前为止并没有引起国内贸易收支的恶化,但预测到,随着对外直接投资的进一步发展,必将产生明显的出口替代效应和逆进口效应,进而恶化贸易收支。
分析韩国对外直接投资对国内就业的影响时,选取了1995-2004年为样本期,使用的是韩国统计厅、劳动部等机构的统计数据,由于一些数据间存在内生性等问题,因此作了一系列的假定,然后设定理论模型,进行回归分析。实证分析分别从直接效果、间接效果以及对不同行业就业影响的角度进行,得出的结论是韩国对外直接投资对国内就业的直接和间接效应,到目前为止,还未产生消极的影响,尽管诸如纤维和服装等一部分轻工行业的对外投资却引起国内就业的减少,对电器电子、钢铁等重化学工业的对外投资一直在增加国内就业。
分析韩国对外直接投资对产业结构调整的影响时,选取了1985-2006年的样本期,使用韩国进出口银行和各国统计年鉴中的数据,运用Granger因果检验,进而进行回归分析,实证对外直接投资对韩国国内产业结构调整的影响程度。分析的结论是韩国对外直接投资的扩大促进了国内产业结构调整,对第一产业的影响程度最大,对第二产业的影响最小,而且拟合度不明显,对第三产业的影响是正向的,即促进了第三产业的发展。
分析韩国对外直接投资对国内技术创新的影响,使用的是规范分析的方法。首先分析了对外直接投资对投资国国内技术创新的影响,然后进一步研究了韩国对外直接投资对国内技术创新的影响机制,即跨国兼并与收购;建立技术开发型国际合资、独资企业;国际战略联盟和建立海外技术研发机构。
分析韩国对外直接投资对国内产业空洞化的影响,使用的也是规范分析的方法。首先,阐述了产业空洞化及产生的原因,和韩国产业空洞化的特点。其次,从国民经济的角度分析对外直接投资对韩国产业空洞化的影响,认为,对外直接投资对国内产业空洞化产生一定的影响,但是重要的是如何通过对外直接投资促进国内产业结构的优化,减少空洞化的负作用。最后,从制造业不同行业角度进行分析,认为对外直接投资加速了韩国制鞋业和纤维产业的产业空洞化;装备制造业有明显的产业空洞化趋势;家电产业由于实现迅速的技术转换,防止了产业空洞化。
基于上述的定量和定性分析,本研究进一步总结韩国对外直接投资的经验与教训,提出我国发展对外直接投资促进国内经济发展的相应策略。即,对外直接投资政策的调整要与经济发展进程相适应;对外直接投资的区位及产业选择要利于促进出口;对外直接投资要利于企业的技术创新;对外直接投资要利于优化产业结构;对外直接投资要利于国内就业。
The main research purpose of this dissertation is to analyze with practical proof the domestic economic effect on South Korea by its direct investment in foreign countries(outward FDI). The dissertation also summarizes the experience and lessons learned from outward FDI of South Korea and provides the relevant policies and suggestions for the development of China’s FDI in order to promote the domestic economic development.
This dissertation adopts the method of combining practical and normal analysis. In the part of practical analysis, the dissertation presents the assumption based on the theoretic premise and then constructs on appropriate model, and then selects the proper samples to test the assumption, according to the reqiurements of research and with reference to relevant study results and conclusion in foreign countries. In the part of normal analysis, the dissertation makes a given analysis of the process and policies of South Korea’s FDI. Based on the practical and normal analysis mentioned above, generalizing the experience and lessons learned from South Korea’s FDI and combined with the present status of China’s FDI, the dissertation proposes the relevant policies which help to promote and perfect China’s FDI.
Through the process of South Korea’s FDI and the given analysis of policy, the main conclusion gained is : first, we can divide the overseas investment of South Korea into three phases according to its features: the first phase is the preliminary one of overseas direct investment dating from 1968～1980;the second phase is the rapidly developing one dating from 1981～1997;the third phase, with recession at beginning and then booming, is the extremely fast developing one dating from 1998 to now. It makes a close-up analysis of each phase and then raise the existing problems of South Korea’s FDI. Secondly, this dissertation sorts out the supporting system and summarizes the transformation of policies of South Korea’s FDI. First of all, the supporting system is described from five points of view: finance, insurance, revenue, information and safe investment environment. It divides the South Korea’s FDI into five stages regarding the policies transformation, and then offers the given analysis, they are the introduction stage (1968-1974), the adjustment stage (1975-1979), the incentive stage (1980-1985), fast-developing stage (1986-1993) and liberalization stage (1994 up to now). And this dissertation has generalized these five stages’developing features from six aspects of the investment emphasis, the investment examination system, the investment conditions, the investment restriction system, the proportion of collecting self capital and the financial supporting system.
The emphasis of this research is the practical analysis of the effect South Korea’s FDI has on the domestic trade balance, and the structural adjustment of employment and industry,and the normal analysis of domestic technical innovation and deindustrialization.
To analyze the influence by the South Korea’s FDI through practical examples, it selects the period from 1991 to 2004 as the sample and uses the statistics summed up by the banks of South Korea. Because the manufacture industry of South Korea holds a crucial position in overseas investment and domestic economy, the research carries out a circular analysis from the perspectives of the inspiring effect overseas investment has on the export of domestic manufacturing industry, export substitute effect and counter-import effect. The result of practical analysis is that the FDI of South Korea has not generated the decrease of domestic trade balance until now. However, with further development of the FDI, export substitute effect and counter-import effect will definitly occur as predicated and lead to the deterioration of trade balance.
The statistics from South Korean Ministry of Statistics and Ministry of Labor are used to analyze the effects of FDI on domestic employment, with the samples from 1995 to 2004. A number of hypotheses are made due to the endogenous of the statistics. On the basis of these hypotheses, the model of research is designed to make the Regression Analysis.
The practical analysis is conducted from three perspectives: the direct effect, the indirect effect and the effects on different industries on employment. It comes to the conclusion that till now the direct and indirect effect of FDI has no negative influences. However, in some light industries such as textile industry the domestic employment is reduced by the foreign investment, and in some heavy industries in such as appliances and steel areas, the domestic employment is increasing.
The statistics by the export and import banks of South Korea and statistical yearbooks from different countries are used to analyze the effect of South Korea’s outward FDI on industrial structure adjustment, with the samples from 1985 to 2006. The Granger Causality Test and Regression Analysis are adopted to show the influencial degree of South Korea’s outward FDI on the domestic industrial structure adjustment of South Korea. The conclusion is that South Korea’s outward FDI promotes the domestic industrial structure adjustment with the results for influencial degrees of the most in primary industry, the least in secondary industry due to a no obvious fitting and positive in tertiary industry, which indicates South Korea’s outward FDI promotes the development of the tertiary industry.
The Normal Analysis is used to analyze the effects of South Korea’s outward FDI on domestic technological innovation. It also studies the effects of South Korea’s outward FDI on the influencial mechanism of domestic technological innovation, which includes transnational annexation and international purchase, establishing international joint venture and proprietorship with focus on technological innovation, and international strategic alliance and establishment of overseas institution of technological development.
It is also used the normal analysis to analyze the effect of South Korea’s outward FDI to domestic deindustrialization. Firstly, it describes the reasons and the characteristics of South Korean deindustrialization. Secondly, it analyzes the influence of outward FDI on South Korean deindustrialization from the perspective of the national economy. The analysis shows that outward FDI has some influence on the domestic deindustrialization, however, the emphasis should be how to reduce the negative effect by promoting the optimization of industrial structure through FDI. Finally, it analyzes from different perspectives of manufacturing industry, and the results indicate that the FDI in South Korean speeds up the domestic deindustrialization in shoe and fabric industry, and causes an obvious tendency of deindustrialization in the mechanical equipment industry, and the appliance industry has avoided deindustrialization by the efficient technology transfer.
Based on the quantitative and qualitative analysis above, this study further summarizes the experiences and lessons of South Korea’s outward FDI, proposes the corresponding strategies for China to promote the domestic economic development through developing outward FDI. They are the policies of FDI should adapt to the process of economic development; the location and industry choice of FDI should be beneficial for the export promotion; FDI should be favorable to the technological innovation of enterprises; FDI should be beneficial to optimize industrial structure and FDI should be benefit the domestic employment.
本文研究采用实证分析与规范分析相结合的方法。在实证分析部分,本研究基于理论前提,提出假设,然后根据研究的需要,并参考国外相关研究成果的基础上构建适宜模型,最后选取适当的样本对假设进行检验。在规范分析部分,本文研究对韩国对外直接投资的历程与政策进行了总结和评价。基于上述实证分析与规范分析的研究结果,总结韩国对外直接投资的经验与教训,并结合中国对外直接投资的现状,提出促进和完善我国对外直接投资的相关建议。
通过对韩国对外直接投资的历程与政策进行定性分析,得到的主要结论如下:第一,根据韩国对外直接投资的发展特点,将其分为三大阶段:第一阶段是1968-1980年,是对外直接投资的初级阶段;第二阶段是1981-1997年,是对外直接投资的快速发展阶段;第三阶段是1998-至今,是对外直接投资的高速发展阶段,并在对每个阶段做出详尽分析的基础上,进一步提出目前韩国对外直接投资所存在的问题。第二,梳理了韩国对外直接投资的支持制度并总结了韩国对外直接投资的政策变迁。首先,对支持制度从五个角度进行了描述:即金融、保险、税收、情报信息以及安全投资环境。其次,把韩国对外直接投资的政策变迁分为五个阶段进行定性分析:即制度引入的初级阶段(1968-1974),制度调整阶段(1975-1979),奖励阶段(1980-1985),快速发展阶段(1986-1993)及自由化阶段(1994-至今)。分别从投资重点、投资认证制度、投资条件、投资限制制度、筹措自有资金比例以及金融支持制度六方面概括这五个阶段的演变特点。
本研究的重点在于实证分析了韩国对外直接投资对国际贸易收支、就业以及产业结构调整的影响,规范分析了其对国内技术创新和产业空洞化的影响。
实证分析韩国对外直接投资对国际贸易收支的影响,选取了1991年-2004年为样本期,使用的是韩国银行统计的数据。由于韩国制造业在对外直接投资与国民经济中一直占有很大的比重,因此,本研究从其对外直接投资对国内制造业的出口的引致效应、出口替代效应和逆进口效应的角度进行了回归分析。实证分析的结果是韩国对外直接投资到目前为止并没有引起国内贸易收支的恶化,但预测到,随着对外直接投资的进一步发展,必将产生明显的出口替代效应和逆进口效应,进而恶化贸易收支。
分析韩国对外直接投资对国内就业的影响时,选取了1995-2004年为样本期,使用的是韩国统计厅、劳动部等机构的统计数据,由于一些数据间存在内生性等问题,因此作了一系列的假定,然后设定理论模型,进行回归分析。实证分析分别从直接效果、间接效果以及对不同行业就业影响的角度进行,得出的结论是韩国对外直接投资对国内就业的直接和间接效应,到目前为止,还未产生消极的影响,尽管诸如纤维和服装等一部分轻工行业的对外投资却引起国内就业的减少,对电器电子、钢铁等重化学工业的对外投资一直在增加国内就业。
分析韩国对外直接投资对产业结构调整的影响时,选取了1985-2006年的样本期,使用韩国进出口银行和各国统计年鉴中的数据,运用Granger因果检验,进而进行回归分析,实证对外直接投资对韩国国内产业结构调整的影响程度。分析的结论是韩国对外直接投资的扩大促进了国内产业结构调整,对第一产业的影响程度最大,对第二产业的影响最小,而且拟合度不明显,对第三产业的影响是正向的,即促进了第三产业的发展。
分析韩国对外直接投资对国内技术创新的影响,使用的是规范分析的方法。首先分析了对外直接投资对投资国国内技术创新的影响,然后进一步研究了韩国对外直接投资对国内技术创新的影响机制,即跨国兼并与收购;建立技术开发型国际合资、独资企业;国际战略联盟和建立海外技术研发机构。
分析韩国对外直接投资对国内产业空洞化的影响,使用的也是规范分析的方法。首先,阐述了产业空洞化及产生的原因,和韩国产业空洞化的特点。其次,从国民经济的角度分析对外直接投资对韩国产业空洞化的影响,认为,对外直接投资对国内产业空洞化产生一定的影响,但是重要的是如何通过对外直接投资促进国内产业结构的优化,减少空洞化的负作用。最后,从制造业不同行业角度进行分析,认为对外直接投资加速了韩国制鞋业和纤维产业的产业空洞化;装备制造业有明显的产业空洞化趋势;家电产业由于实现迅速的技术转换,防止了产业空洞化。
基于上述的定量和定性分析,本研究进一步总结韩国对外直接投资的经验与教训,提出我国发展对外直接投资促进国内经济发展的相应策略。即,对外直接投资政策的调整要与经济发展进程相适应;对外直接投资的区位及产业选择要利于促进出口;对外直接投资要利于企业的技术创新;对外直接投资要利于优化产业结构;对外直接投资要利于国内就业。
The main research purpose of this dissertation is to analyze with practical proof the domestic economic effect on South Korea by its direct investment in foreign countries(outward FDI). The dissertation also summarizes the experience and lessons learned from outward FDI of South Korea and provides the relevant policies and suggestions for the development of China’s FDI in order to promote the domestic economic development.
This dissertation adopts the method of combining practical and normal analysis. In the part of practical analysis, the dissertation presents the assumption based on the theoretic premise and then constructs on appropriate model, and then selects the proper samples to test the assumption, according to the reqiurements of research and with reference to relevant study results and conclusion in foreign countries. In the part of normal analysis, the dissertation makes a given analysis of the process and policies of South Korea’s FDI. Based on the practical and normal analysis mentioned above, generalizing the experience and lessons learned from South Korea’s FDI and combined with the present status of China’s FDI, the dissertation proposes the relevant policies which help to promote and perfect China’s FDI.
Through the process of South Korea’s FDI and the given analysis of policy, the main conclusion gained is : first, we can divide the overseas investment of South Korea into three phases according to its features: the first phase is the preliminary one of overseas direct investment dating from 1968～1980;the second phase is the rapidly developing one dating from 1981～1997;the third phase, with recession at beginning and then booming, is the extremely fast developing one dating from 1998 to now. It makes a close-up analysis of each phase and then raise the existing problems of South Korea’s FDI. Secondly, this dissertation sorts out the supporting system and summarizes the transformation of policies of South Korea’s FDI. First of all, the supporting system is described from five points of view: finance, insurance, revenue, information and safe investment environment. It divides the South Korea’s FDI into five stages regarding the policies transformation, and then offers the given analysis, they are the introduction stage (1968-1974), the adjustment stage (1975-1979), the incentive stage (1980-1985), fast-developing stage (1986-1993) and liberalization stage (1994 up to now). And this dissertation has generalized these five stages’developing features from six aspects of the investment emphasis, the investment examination system, the investment conditions, the investment restriction system, the proportion of collecting self capital and the financial supporting system.
The emphasis of this research is the practical analysis of the effect South Korea’s FDI has on the domestic trade balance, and the structural adjustment of employment and industry,and the normal analysis of domestic technical innovation and deindustrialization.
To analyze the influence by the South Korea’s FDI through practical examples, it selects the period from 1991 to 2004 as the sample and uses the statistics summed up by the banks of South Korea. Because the manufacture industry of South Korea holds a crucial position in overseas investment and domestic economy, the research carries out a circular analysis from the perspectives of the inspiring effect overseas investment has on the export of domestic manufacturing industry, export substitute effect and counter-import effect. The result of practical analysis is that the FDI of South Korea has not generated the decrease of domestic trade balance until now. However, with further development of the FDI, export substitute effect and counter-import effect will definitly occur as predicated and lead to the deterioration of trade balance.
The statistics from South Korean Ministry of Statistics and Ministry of Labor are used to analyze the effects of FDI on domestic employment, with the samples from 1995 to 2004. A number of hypotheses are made due to the endogenous of the statistics. On the basis of these hypotheses, the model of research is designed to make the Regression Analysis.
The practical analysis is conducted from three perspectives: the direct effect, the indirect effect and the effects on different industries on employment. It comes to the conclusion that till now the direct and indirect effect of FDI has no negative influences. However, in some light industries such as textile industry the domestic employment is reduced by the foreign investment, and in some heavy industries in such as appliances and steel areas, the domestic employment is increasing.
The statistics by the export and import banks of South Korea and statistical yearbooks from different countries are used to analyze the effect of South Korea’s outward FDI on industrial structure adjustment, with the samples from 1985 to 2006. The Granger Causality Test and Regression Analysis are adopted to show the influencial degree of South Korea’s outward FDI on the domestic industrial structure adjustment of South Korea. The conclusion is that South Korea’s outward FDI promotes the domestic industrial structure adjustment with the results for influencial degrees of the most in primary industry, the least in secondary industry due to a no obvious fitting and positive in tertiary industry, which indicates South Korea’s outward FDI promotes the development of the tertiary industry.
The Normal Analysis is used to analyze the effects of South Korea’s outward FDI on domestic technological innovation. It also studies the effects of South Korea’s outward FDI on the influencial mechanism of domestic technological innovation, which includes transnational annexation and international purchase, establishing international joint venture and proprietorship with focus on technological innovation, and international strategic alliance and establishment of overseas institution of technological development.
It is also used the normal analysis to analyze the effect of South Korea’s outward FDI to domestic deindustrialization. Firstly, it describes the reasons and the characteristics of South Korean deindustrialization. Secondly, it analyzes the influence of outward FDI on South Korean deindustrialization from the perspective of the national economy. The analysis shows that outward FDI has some influence on the domestic deindustrialization, however, the emphasis should be how to reduce the negative effect by promoting the optimization of industrial structure through FDI. Finally, it analyzes from different perspectives of manufacturing industry, and the results indicate that the FDI in South Korean speeds up the domestic deindustrialization in shoe and fabric industry, and causes an obvious tendency of deindustrialization in the mechanical equipment industry, and the appliance industry has avoided deindustrialization by the efficient technology transfer.
Based on the quantitative and qualitative analysis above, this study further summarizes the experiences and lessons of South Korea’s outward FDI, proposes the corresponding strategies for China to promote the domestic economic development through developing outward FDI. They are the policies of FDI should adapt to the process of economic development; the location and industry choice of FDI should be beneficial for the export promotion; FDI should be favorable to the technological innovation of enterprises; FDI should be beneficial to optimize industrial structure and FDI should be benefit the domestic employment.
引文
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