中国航空运输企业战略风险识别与评价研究
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摘要
基于全球化与信息网络技术的发展,企业环境变化更加剧烈,不确定性因素越来越多,这对航空运输企业提出了新的挑战。目前缺乏对中国航空运输业战略风险的系统性研究,本文从风险角度对中国的航空运输企业的战略管理进行研究,通过对中国航空运输企业战略管理风险的识别、分析与评价,给企业的战略决策提供支持与参考。
论文研究主要分三部分。第一部分从战略定位、战略选择与战略实施三个方面提出了中国航空运输业的战略风险因素识别体系,采用工作-风险分解法与专家访谈法提炼出了16个战略风险因素,并对战略风险因素向战略风险的转化条件进行了分析。
第二部分应用网络分析法(ANP)确定了战略风险因素的权重,对中国航空运输行业的战略风险进行了评价,将战略风险因素划分为严格控制层、控制层与关注层。结合模糊评价法,本文对12家航空公司的战略风险进行了评价,结合航空运输企业的具体情况对不同航空公司战略风险的差异进行了分析。并进一步讨论了航空运输企业战略风险控制与决策。
第三部分是实证研究,对中国东方航空公司战略风险进行识别与评价,并对其战略风险进行分析,提出战略风险控制与决策建议。
本文的主要创新点有:应用创新,将战略风险应用到航空运输业,并通过实证研究应用到中国东方航空公司;研究方法的创新,定量方法与定性方法相结合,将网络分析法与模糊评价法结合起来对战略风险因素进行评价;提出战略风险识别的两个核心维度,战略风险因素识别与战略风险因素向战略风险转化条件的识别;根据战略风险识别与评价结果,将中国航空运输企业的战略风险因素划分为严格控制层、控制层与关注层;并对不同航空公司之间的战略风险差异进行了评价与分析。
Nowadays, enterprises are facing more changes and uncertainties,and airlines are facing more challenges. There is no systemic and comprehensive researches on the strategy risk in airline industry. This article mainly studies strategy management from the point of risk.
There are three main parts. Firstly, this article proposed one strategy risk factors identification system for Chinese airlines based on the strategy position, strategy choice and strategy implementation. Work-risk analysis and expert interview were used to extract 16 strategy risks, and then the transformation conditions from strategy risk factors to strategy risks were analyzed.
In the second part, ANP was used to get the weight for 16 strategy risks, and then the airline industry strategy risk levels were evaluated into three layers, strict control layer, control layer and watching layer. Combined with fuzzy evaluation method, this article evaluated the strategy risk of 12 Chinese airlines and analyzed the difference. Based on the identification and evaluation, one decision model was proposed. In the third part, the empirical research is the case study on Chinese Eastern Airline. The strategy risk level was evaluated and the strategy risks were analyzed.
This article innovated in the following aspects. This research put the strategy risk theory into airline industry and the case study. Secondly it combined the qualitative method with quantitative method, using ANP method and fuzzy evaluation method. Thirdly, two core identification dimensions (strategy risk factors identification and transformation condition analysis) were proposed. According the evaluation result, the Chinese airline strategy risks were categorized into three layers, and strategy risks of different airlines were analyzed.
论文研究主要分三部分。第一部分从战略定位、战略选择与战略实施三个方面提出了中国航空运输业的战略风险因素识别体系,采用工作-风险分解法与专家访谈法提炼出了16个战略风险因素,并对战略风险因素向战略风险的转化条件进行了分析。
第二部分应用网络分析法(ANP)确定了战略风险因素的权重,对中国航空运输行业的战略风险进行了评价,将战略风险因素划分为严格控制层、控制层与关注层。结合模糊评价法,本文对12家航空公司的战略风险进行了评价,结合航空运输企业的具体情况对不同航空公司战略风险的差异进行了分析。并进一步讨论了航空运输企业战略风险控制与决策。
第三部分是实证研究,对中国东方航空公司战略风险进行识别与评价,并对其战略风险进行分析,提出战略风险控制与决策建议。
本文的主要创新点有:应用创新,将战略风险应用到航空运输业,并通过实证研究应用到中国东方航空公司;研究方法的创新,定量方法与定性方法相结合,将网络分析法与模糊评价法结合起来对战略风险因素进行评价;提出战略风险识别的两个核心维度,战略风险因素识别与战略风险因素向战略风险转化条件的识别;根据战略风险识别与评价结果,将中国航空运输企业的战略风险因素划分为严格控制层、控制层与关注层;并对不同航空公司之间的战略风险差异进行了评价与分析。
Nowadays, enterprises are facing more changes and uncertainties,and airlines are facing more challenges. There is no systemic and comprehensive researches on the strategy risk in airline industry. This article mainly studies strategy management from the point of risk.
There are three main parts. Firstly, this article proposed one strategy risk factors identification system for Chinese airlines based on the strategy position, strategy choice and strategy implementation. Work-risk analysis and expert interview were used to extract 16 strategy risks, and then the transformation conditions from strategy risk factors to strategy risks were analyzed.
In the second part, ANP was used to get the weight for 16 strategy risks, and then the airline industry strategy risk levels were evaluated into three layers, strict control layer, control layer and watching layer. Combined with fuzzy evaluation method, this article evaluated the strategy risk of 12 Chinese airlines and analyzed the difference. Based on the identification and evaluation, one decision model was proposed. In the third part, the empirical research is the case study on Chinese Eastern Airline. The strategy risk level was evaluated and the strategy risks were analyzed.
This article innovated in the following aspects. This research put the strategy risk theory into airline industry and the case study. Secondly it combined the qualitative method with quantitative method, using ANP method and fuzzy evaluation method. Thirdly, two core identification dimensions (strategy risk factors identification and transformation condition analysis) were proposed. According the evaluation result, the Chinese airline strategy risks were categorized into three layers, and strategy risks of different airlines were analyzed.
引文
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