物流业与区域经济协调发展研究
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摘要
现代物流业不仅是各产业部门经济增长方式转变的主要手段和途径，而且已成为国民经济发展的新的经济“增长点”。由于目前我国物流业仍处于初级阶段，物流成本高、物流交通基础设施配套性差及物流供需不平衡等问题严重制约了区域经济的发展，因此研究物流业与区域经济的协调发展问题有着极其重要的紧迫性。
论文在概述有关物流与经济发展相关文献的基础上，综合运用区域经济学、产业经济学、计量经济学和系统科学理论与方法，对物流业与区域经济协调发展问题进行了全面系统的研究，本文主要研究工作为：
（1）从我国物流业发展总体情形出发，分析物流业发展历史及现状，对2011年省域物流业发展水平进行评价，并分析了1997-2011年物流业空间集聚及演化特征。研究表明：虽然我国物流业发展已取得了长足的进步，但物流业发展仍存在区域不平衡现象。物流业发展较好的省份主要集中在东南沿海地区，呈由东至西阶梯递减的趋势；物流业空间集聚特征明显，而且有不断增强的趋势。
（2）采用动态计量模型，分析物流业与经济增长间的联动效应，并构建物流业对经济增长影响的多变量空间计量模型，采用省份地区面板数据进行了实证分析。研究表明：物流业与经济增长保持着长期协整关系；物流业发展促进了经济增长，但对经济增长的促进作用还不显著；若不考虑空间因素影响，会高估物流业发展对区域经济增长的作用。
（3）基于省份地区的面板数据，采用空间面板杜宾模型分析现代物流业发展对产业结构合理化和高级化的影响。研究表明：省域区间产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化存在着显著为正的溢出效应；物流业的发展不仅促进了本地区产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化进程，而且也能够促进临近省份地区产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化进程。
（4）运用系统分析理论与方法，构建了“物流-区域经济”复合系统，并运用耗散结构理论、协同学研究复合系统的协调发展机制；运用PLS通径模型测度了1997年以来全国和各省份地区“物流-区域经济”复合系统及其各子系统的协调发展水平。研究表明：复合系统和各子系统协调发展水平呈逐年递增的态势；东部地区的经济子系统、物流业子系统和复合系统协调发展水平明显要优于中、西部地区；各系统仍未摆脱粗放式的增长模式，经济子系统是制约复合系统协调发展水平提高的主要因素。
（5）采用离差系数最小化协调度模型和序参量功效函数协调度模型分别对“物流-区域经济”复合系统及各子系统的协调度进行测度。研究表明：自1997年以来，复合系统协调度及各子系统内部协调度呈逐年递增的态势；相对而言，经济发达省份复合系统、物流业子系统和经济子系统协调程度较高，但是大部分地区仍处于不协调状态；两时期各区域复合系统及各子系统的协调度空间分布无实质性变化，呈由东部向中、西部地区递减的趋势，但西部、中部与东部地区协调度差距有缩小的趋势。
本文的主要贡献为：（1）从区域竞争实力和竞争潜力两个维度构建了省域物流业发展水平评价指标体系，并采用主成分分析法和熵值法对相应的指标进行赋权合成。（2）基于古典经济增长理论、新古典经济增长理论、新经济增长理论和新地理经济学理论，构建了物流业对经济增长的多维要素空间计量模型。（3）考虑空间数据相关性，采用空间计量方法研究物流业对区域经济发展的影响。（4）基于PLS通径模型，构建“物流-区域经济”复合系统协调发展水平测度模型，并计算各子系统及复合系统的协调发展水平指数。
本文通过对物流业与区域经济协调发展的研究，有助于丰富物流系统理论，为我国区域经济和物流系统规划提供了科学依据。
Modern logistics industry is not only the main way that various industries changes itseconomic growth mode, but also has become a new economic growth spot of the nationaleconomy development. However, current logistics industry in China is still in initial stage,along with the prolems of high cost, poor infrastructure facilities, imbalance between supplyand demand. All of these seriously restrict the development of regional economic. Therefore,the research on coordinated development of the logistics industry and regional economics isvery urgent.
The problem of coordinated development of logistics industry and regional economic hasbeen carried out by the method of regional economics, industrial economics, econometricsand system science theory based on the current research results.The main research of thispaper includes:
(1) With the view of the general situation of China's logistics industry development, thepaper introduces the logistics industry development history and present situation. The regionaldevelopment level of logistics industry is evaluated in2011and the spatial concentrationdistribution and its evolution characteristics are analyzed. The results show that there is still aregional imbalance in the development of logistics industry, although the logistics industrydevelopment in our country has made great progress. The provinces of the better developmentof logistics industry are mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal areas presenting adecreasing ladder trend from eastern to western. Logistics industry agglomeration issignificant and has a rising trend.
(2) Dynamic econometric model is applided to analyze the interactive between thelogistics industry development and economic growth. A multivariate spatial econometricmodel of logistics industry’s effect on economic growth is built. According to the regionalpanel data, the econometric model is analyzed empirically. Results show that there is along-term co-integration relationship between them. In the long run, the logistics industrypromotes the economic growth. However, the regional logistics has no significant effect on the regional economic growth. The effect of the logistics industry development on regionaleconomic growth is overestimated if the space factor is ignored.
(3) Spatial panel Durbin model is built to analyze the development of logistics industryon rationalization of industrial structure and optimization of industrial structure based onpanel data.The results show that rationalization of industrial structure and optimization ofindustrial structure have significant positive spillover effect. The development of modernlogistics industry not only can significantly promote the process of the industrial structureoptimization, but also promote the development of adjacent areas through the positivespillover effect.
(4) The logistics-regional economy compound system is constructed using the systemanalysis theory. The coordinated development mechanism of the compound system is studiedusing the dissipative structure theory and synergetic theory. The compound system and itssubsystems coordination development level of the country and each province is measuredusing the PLS path model. The results show that coordination development level of compositesystem and each subsystem is prensent an increasing trend on the whole year by year. Thecoordination development level of the various subsystems and compound system in easternregions is obviously superior to the central and western regions. None of the systems has gotrid of the extensive type of gorwth pattern. Ecomomic system is the important factor whichconstrained the improvement of the coordinated develpoment level of the compound system.
(5) Using minimizing deviation coefficient model and the order parameter efficacymodel, we measure the coordinate degree of the logistics-regional economy compound systemand its subsystems. The results show that the coordination degree of compound system and itssubsystems is increasing since1997. Relatively, the coordination degree of compound systemand each subsystem is much higher in developed regions than other regions. However, mostregions are still in low coordination or inharmonious state. In two stages, there is nosubstantial change in spatial distribution characteristic of the compound system and itssubsystems presenting decreasing trend from the eastern to central and western, but the gapamong the western, central and eastern trends to be narrowed.
In this paper, the main contributions include:(1) A regional logistics competitiveevaluation model is built from the competitive strength and competitive potential of theregional logistics.The weight of the evaluation system is decided by the principal componentanalysis and entropy value method.(2) A multivariate spatial econometric model of logisticsindustry’s effect on economic growth is built based on the classical economic theory, the newclassical economic theory, the new economic growth theory and the new economic geographytheory.(3) Spatial econometric method is used to study the effect of logistics industry toregional economic development considering the spatial data correlation.(4) Thelogistics-regional economy compound system coordination development level measure modelis built based on PLS path model and the compound system and its subsystems coordinationdevelopment level of the country and each province is measured.
The above research results can help to enrich the theory of logistics system and proviedmore scientific evidences for regional economy and logistics system planning.
论文在概述有关物流与经济发展相关文献的基础上，综合运用区域经济学、产业经济学、计量经济学和系统科学理论与方法，对物流业与区域经济协调发展问题进行了全面系统的研究，本文主要研究工作为：
（1）从我国物流业发展总体情形出发，分析物流业发展历史及现状，对2011年省域物流业发展水平进行评价，并分析了1997-2011年物流业空间集聚及演化特征。研究表明：虽然我国物流业发展已取得了长足的进步，但物流业发展仍存在区域不平衡现象。物流业发展较好的省份主要集中在东南沿海地区，呈由东至西阶梯递减的趋势；物流业空间集聚特征明显，而且有不断增强的趋势。
（2）采用动态计量模型，分析物流业与经济增长间的联动效应，并构建物流业对经济增长影响的多变量空间计量模型，采用省份地区面板数据进行了实证分析。研究表明：物流业与经济增长保持着长期协整关系；物流业发展促进了经济增长，但对经济增长的促进作用还不显著；若不考虑空间因素影响，会高估物流业发展对区域经济增长的作用。
（3）基于省份地区的面板数据，采用空间面板杜宾模型分析现代物流业发展对产业结构合理化和高级化的影响。研究表明：省域区间产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化存在着显著为正的溢出效应；物流业的发展不仅促进了本地区产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化进程，而且也能够促进临近省份地区产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化进程。
（4）运用系统分析理论与方法，构建了“物流-区域经济”复合系统，并运用耗散结构理论、协同学研究复合系统的协调发展机制；运用PLS通径模型测度了1997年以来全国和各省份地区“物流-区域经济”复合系统及其各子系统的协调发展水平。研究表明：复合系统和各子系统协调发展水平呈逐年递增的态势；东部地区的经济子系统、物流业子系统和复合系统协调发展水平明显要优于中、西部地区；各系统仍未摆脱粗放式的增长模式，经济子系统是制约复合系统协调发展水平提高的主要因素。
（5）采用离差系数最小化协调度模型和序参量功效函数协调度模型分别对“物流-区域经济”复合系统及各子系统的协调度进行测度。研究表明：自1997年以来，复合系统协调度及各子系统内部协调度呈逐年递增的态势；相对而言，经济发达省份复合系统、物流业子系统和经济子系统协调程度较高，但是大部分地区仍处于不协调状态；两时期各区域复合系统及各子系统的协调度空间分布无实质性变化，呈由东部向中、西部地区递减的趋势，但西部、中部与东部地区协调度差距有缩小的趋势。
本文的主要贡献为：（1）从区域竞争实力和竞争潜力两个维度构建了省域物流业发展水平评价指标体系，并采用主成分分析法和熵值法对相应的指标进行赋权合成。（2）基于古典经济增长理论、新古典经济增长理论、新经济增长理论和新地理经济学理论，构建了物流业对经济增长的多维要素空间计量模型。（3）考虑空间数据相关性，采用空间计量方法研究物流业对区域经济发展的影响。（4）基于PLS通径模型，构建“物流-区域经济”复合系统协调发展水平测度模型，并计算各子系统及复合系统的协调发展水平指数。
本文通过对物流业与区域经济协调发展的研究，有助于丰富物流系统理论，为我国区域经济和物流系统规划提供了科学依据。
Modern logistics industry is not only the main way that various industries changes itseconomic growth mode, but also has become a new economic growth spot of the nationaleconomy development. However, current logistics industry in China is still in initial stage,along with the prolems of high cost, poor infrastructure facilities, imbalance between supplyand demand. All of these seriously restrict the development of regional economic. Therefore,the research on coordinated development of the logistics industry and regional economics isvery urgent.
The problem of coordinated development of logistics industry and regional economic hasbeen carried out by the method of regional economics, industrial economics, econometricsand system science theory based on the current research results.The main research of thispaper includes:
(1) With the view of the general situation of China's logistics industry development, thepaper introduces the logistics industry development history and present situation. The regionaldevelopment level of logistics industry is evaluated in2011and the spatial concentrationdistribution and its evolution characteristics are analyzed. The results show that there is still aregional imbalance in the development of logistics industry, although the logistics industrydevelopment in our country has made great progress. The provinces of the better developmentof logistics industry are mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal areas presenting adecreasing ladder trend from eastern to western. Logistics industry agglomeration issignificant and has a rising trend.
(2) Dynamic econometric model is applided to analyze the interactive between thelogistics industry development and economic growth. A multivariate spatial econometricmodel of logistics industry’s effect on economic growth is built. According to the regionalpanel data, the econometric model is analyzed empirically. Results show that there is along-term co-integration relationship between them. In the long run, the logistics industrypromotes the economic growth. However, the regional logistics has no significant effect on the regional economic growth. The effect of the logistics industry development on regionaleconomic growth is overestimated if the space factor is ignored.
(3) Spatial panel Durbin model is built to analyze the development of logistics industryon rationalization of industrial structure and optimization of industrial structure based onpanel data.The results show that rationalization of industrial structure and optimization ofindustrial structure have significant positive spillover effect. The development of modernlogistics industry not only can significantly promote the process of the industrial structureoptimization, but also promote the development of adjacent areas through the positivespillover effect.
(4) The logistics-regional economy compound system is constructed using the systemanalysis theory. The coordinated development mechanism of the compound system is studiedusing the dissipative structure theory and synergetic theory. The compound system and itssubsystems coordination development level of the country and each province is measuredusing the PLS path model. The results show that coordination development level of compositesystem and each subsystem is prensent an increasing trend on the whole year by year. Thecoordination development level of the various subsystems and compound system in easternregions is obviously superior to the central and western regions. None of the systems has gotrid of the extensive type of gorwth pattern. Ecomomic system is the important factor whichconstrained the improvement of the coordinated develpoment level of the compound system.
(5) Using minimizing deviation coefficient model and the order parameter efficacymodel, we measure the coordinate degree of the logistics-regional economy compound systemand its subsystems. The results show that the coordination degree of compound system and itssubsystems is increasing since1997. Relatively, the coordination degree of compound systemand each subsystem is much higher in developed regions than other regions. However, mostregions are still in low coordination or inharmonious state. In two stages, there is nosubstantial change in spatial distribution characteristic of the compound system and itssubsystems presenting decreasing trend from the eastern to central and western, but the gapamong the western, central and eastern trends to be narrowed.
In this paper, the main contributions include:(1) A regional logistics competitiveevaluation model is built from the competitive strength and competitive potential of theregional logistics.The weight of the evaluation system is decided by the principal componentanalysis and entropy value method.(2) A multivariate spatial econometric model of logisticsindustry’s effect on economic growth is built based on the classical economic theory, the newclassical economic theory, the new economic growth theory and the new economic geographytheory.(3) Spatial econometric method is used to study the effect of logistics industry toregional economic development considering the spatial data correlation.(4) Thelogistics-regional economy compound system coordination development level measure modelis built based on PLS path model and the compound system and its subsystems coordinationdevelopment level of the country and each province is measured.
The above research results can help to enrich the theory of logistics system and proviedmore scientific evidences for regional economy and logistics system planning.
引文
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