基于供应不确定的供应链中断风险管理研究
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摘要
随着供应链全球业务的展开、精益理念的发展以及恐怖主义、自然灾害等频繁发生,供应链中断风险发生的概率正在逐步增加,供应链中断的产生给企业带来了巨大的损失。在这种背景下,学术界对供应链中断管理的研究也越来越多,但是学术界关于供应链中断管理的研究大部分是基于需求不确定的情况展开的,对供应不确定的情况研究较少。
基于以上的背景,本文拟对供应不确定情况下的供应链中断风险进行研究,在设计了弹性供应链的基础上,提出在供应不确定情况提升供应链弹性的措施。本文首先从供应链的识别、评估、控制和弹性供应链的设计等方面对国内外研究和相关理论进行了综述,在此基础上对供应链中断风险进行分析；然后,从风险发生前和风险发生后两个角度提出了供应不确定情况下的的供应链中断风险防范措施,并设计了相应的模型；最后对供应和需求不确定两种情况下的供应链中断风险管理从影响机理、供应商管理、库存管理等多方面进行了比较研究。
With the development of supply chain business and the frequent occurrence of terrorism and natural disaster, the probability of supply chain disruption risk is increasing and this kind of risk can bring huge losses to the enterprise. In this circumstance,the academic study of supply chain disruption management is also increasing, but most research are based on the demand uncertainty and few are based on the supply uncertainty.
Based on the above background, this paper intend to research on the supply chain risk under the supply uncertainty.After designing the flexible supply chain,we propose the measures to improve the supply chain flexibility based on the supply uncertainty.First, this paper review total research and theory about control,assessment,and flexibility of supply chain.Based on this, we analysis the risk of supply chain.Second,we propose the prevention measures about risk of supply chain under supply uncertainty,and design the responding model; At last,we compare the risk management under supply uncertainty with that under demand uncertainty from the aspects of business management, inventory management and so on.
基于以上的背景,本文拟对供应不确定情况下的供应链中断风险进行研究,在设计了弹性供应链的基础上,提出在供应不确定情况提升供应链弹性的措施。本文首先从供应链的识别、评估、控制和弹性供应链的设计等方面对国内外研究和相关理论进行了综述,在此基础上对供应链中断风险进行分析；然后,从风险发生前和风险发生后两个角度提出了供应不确定情况下的的供应链中断风险防范措施,并设计了相应的模型；最后对供应和需求不确定两种情况下的供应链中断风险管理从影响机理、供应商管理、库存管理等多方面进行了比较研究。
With the development of supply chain business and the frequent occurrence of terrorism and natural disaster, the probability of supply chain disruption risk is increasing and this kind of risk can bring huge losses to the enterprise. In this circumstance,the academic study of supply chain disruption management is also increasing, but most research are based on the demand uncertainty and few are based on the supply uncertainty.
Based on the above background, this paper intend to research on the supply chain risk under the supply uncertainty.After designing the flexible supply chain,we propose the measures to improve the supply chain flexibility based on the supply uncertainty.First, this paper review total research and theory about control,assessment,and flexibility of supply chain.Based on this, we analysis the risk of supply chain.Second,we propose the prevention measures about risk of supply chain under supply uncertainty,and design the responding model; At last,we compare the risk management under supply uncertainty with that under demand uncertainty from the aspects of business management, inventory management and so on.
引文
[1]Chopra S. Mohan M. Sodhi S.. Managing risk to avoid supply chain breakdown. MIT Sloan Management Review.2004(46). Fall:5-61.
[2]Bailey M..Clayton T.. Managing risk in the supply chain. SAPICS 2004 Proceedings.2004:112-117
[3]张以彬.陈俊芳.供应链的风险识别框架及其柔性控制策略[J].工业工程与管理.2008.1：47-52.
[4]Lawrence V. Snyder. Zuo-Jun Max Shen. Managing Disruptions to Supply Chains. The Bridge.2006:2-3.
[5]Adegoke Oke. Mohan Gopalakrishnan. Managing disruptions in supply chains:A case study of a retail supply chain. International Joural of production economics.2009(118):168-174.
[6]KleindorferP R. SaadG H. Managing Disruption Risks in Supply Chains[J]. Production and Operations Management Society.2005.14(1):53-68.
[7]Wu T. Black hurst J.O'Grady P. Methodology for supply chain disruption analysis[J]. International Journal of production Research.2007.45(7):1665-1682.
[8]Yossi Sheffi. James B. Rice Jr. A supply chain view of the resilient enterprise[J].MIT Sloan. Management Review.2005.47(1):41-48.
[9]孟翠翠.基于制造商视角的供应链中断风险管理研究[D].北京：中国石油大学.2009：34-35.
[10]易海燕.供应链风险的管理与控制研究[D].成都：西南交通大学.2007：53-57.
[11]刘浩华.打造弹性供应链[J].中央财经大学学报.2007(5)：63-68.
[12]Snyder. L. V. Scaparra. M. P. Daskin. M. S. Planning for Disruptions in Supplychain Networks [J]. Operations Research.2006:234-25.
[13]臧运华.多源供应商的选择和最优采购的一种方法[J].技术经济与管理研究.2009(2)：12-13.
[14]李晖照.张子刚.多源供应网络的复杂特性及其对供应管理的影响[J].科技进步与对策.2008(6)：83-86.
[15]Scott C. Ellis. Raymond M. Henry. Jeff Shockley. Buyer perceptions of supply disruption risk:A behavioral view and empirical assessment[J]. Journal of Operations Management.2010(28):34-46.
[16]Kevin B. Hendricks.Vinod R. Singhal. Rongrong Zhang. The effect of operational slack. diversification. and vertical relatedness on the stock market reaction to supply chain disruptions [J]. Journal of Operations Management.2009(27):233-246.
[17]Jing Hou..Amy Z. Zeng. Lindu Zhao. Coordination with a backup supplier through buy-back contract under supply disruption[J]. Transportation Research Part E.2010(46):881-895.
[18]Andrew M. Ross. Ying Rong. Lawrence V. Snyder. Supply disruptions with time-dependent parameters [J]. Computers & Operations Research.2008(35):3504-3529.
[19]陈婷.基于需求扰动的供应链协调[D].厦门：厦门大学.2009：51-60
[20]杨智辉.需求和生产成本同时扰动下的供应链应急管理研究[D].成都：电子科技大学.2008：110-116
[21]于辉.陈剑.于刚.协调供应链如何应对突发事件[J].系统工程理论与实践.2005.7(7)：10-16.
[22]王虹.胡劲松.三级供应链应对突发事件的协调机制研究[J].青岛大学学报(自然科学版).2006.19(3)：71-76.
[23]Qi.X.Bard. J.. Yu. G. Supply chain coordination with demand disruptions[J]. Omega.2004.32.301-312.
[24]Wu M.C.Chang W. J. A Short-term capacity trading method for semiconductor fabs with partnership[J]. Expert System with Applications.2007.33(2):476-483.
[25]丁玲.对供应链突发事件防御的思考[J].北方经贸.2006.(5)：42-43.
[26]傅克俊.胡祥培.王旭坪.供应链系统中的应急策略与模型[J].中国软科学.2007.(5)：119-124.
[27]Chen. K. B. Xiao. T. J.. Demand disruption and coordination of the supply chain with a dominant retailer [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2009.197:225-234.
[28]Xiao. T. J. Yu. G. Supply chain disruption management And Evolutionarily Stable strategies of retailers in the quantity-setting duopoly situation with homogeneous goods[J]. EuroPean Journal Of Operational Research.2006.173:648-668.
[29]Simon C. Pietro R. Mihalis G. Supply chain management:an analytical framework for critical literature review[J]. European Journal of Purchasing&Supply Management.2000.6(1):67-83.
[30]刘浩华.供应链风险管理[M].北京：中国物资出版社.2009.17-19.
[31]Paul D. Berger. Arthur Gerstenfeld. Amy Z. Zeng. How many suppliers are best? A decision-analysis approach[J]. The International Journal of Management Science.2004 (32):9-15.
[32]宁钟,王雅倩.基于亚太地区类SARs传染性疾病流行情景的供应链风险识别[J].科技导报,2006,24(08)：44-4
[33]Bier, V. M., Haimes, Y. Y., Lambert, J. H., Matalas, N. C., Zimmerma, R.. A survey of approaches for assessing and managing the risk of extremes[J]. Risk Analysis,1999,19(1),83-94
[34]Knemeyer, A. M., Zinn, W., Eroglu, C.. Proactive planning for catastrophic events in supply chains[J]. Journal of Operations Management,2009,27(2):141-153
[35]Ruiz-Torres, A. J., Mahmood I, F.. The optimal number of suppliers considering the costs of individual supplier failures[J]. The International Journal of Management Science,2007,35:104-115
[36]Tomlin, B.. On the Value of Mitigation and Contingency Strategies for Managing Supply Chain Disruption Risk[J]. Management Science,2006,52(5):639-657.
[2]Bailey M..Clayton T.. Managing risk in the supply chain. SAPICS 2004 Proceedings.2004:112-117
[3]张以彬.陈俊芳.供应链的风险识别框架及其柔性控制策略[J].工业工程与管理.2008.1：47-52.
[4]Lawrence V. Snyder. Zuo-Jun Max Shen. Managing Disruptions to Supply Chains. The Bridge.2006:2-3.
[5]Adegoke Oke. Mohan Gopalakrishnan. Managing disruptions in supply chains:A case study of a retail supply chain. International Joural of production economics.2009(118):168-174.
[6]KleindorferP R. SaadG H. Managing Disruption Risks in Supply Chains[J]. Production and Operations Management Society.2005.14(1):53-68.
[7]Wu T. Black hurst J.O'Grady P. Methodology for supply chain disruption analysis[J]. International Journal of production Research.2007.45(7):1665-1682.
[8]Yossi Sheffi. James B. Rice Jr. A supply chain view of the resilient enterprise[J].MIT Sloan. Management Review.2005.47(1):41-48.
[9]孟翠翠.基于制造商视角的供应链中断风险管理研究[D].北京：中国石油大学.2009：34-35.
[10]易海燕.供应链风险的管理与控制研究[D].成都：西南交通大学.2007：53-57.
[11]刘浩华.打造弹性供应链[J].中央财经大学学报.2007(5)：63-68.
[12]Snyder. L. V. Scaparra. M. P. Daskin. M. S. Planning for Disruptions in Supplychain Networks [J]. Operations Research.2006:234-25.
[13]臧运华.多源供应商的选择和最优采购的一种方法[J].技术经济与管理研究.2009(2)：12-13.
[14]李晖照.张子刚.多源供应网络的复杂特性及其对供应管理的影响[J].科技进步与对策.2008(6)：83-86.
[15]Scott C. Ellis. Raymond M. Henry. Jeff Shockley. Buyer perceptions of supply disruption risk:A behavioral view and empirical assessment[J]. Journal of Operations Management.2010(28):34-46.
[16]Kevin B. Hendricks.Vinod R. Singhal. Rongrong Zhang. The effect of operational slack. diversification. and vertical relatedness on the stock market reaction to supply chain disruptions [J]. Journal of Operations Management.2009(27):233-246.
[17]Jing Hou..Amy Z. Zeng. Lindu Zhao. Coordination with a backup supplier through buy-back contract under supply disruption[J]. Transportation Research Part E.2010(46):881-895.
[18]Andrew M. Ross. Ying Rong. Lawrence V. Snyder. Supply disruptions with time-dependent parameters [J]. Computers & Operations Research.2008(35):3504-3529.
[19]陈婷.基于需求扰动的供应链协调[D].厦门：厦门大学.2009：51-60
[20]杨智辉.需求和生产成本同时扰动下的供应链应急管理研究[D].成都：电子科技大学.2008：110-116
[21]于辉.陈剑.于刚.协调供应链如何应对突发事件[J].系统工程理论与实践.2005.7(7)：10-16.
[22]王虹.胡劲松.三级供应链应对突发事件的协调机制研究[J].青岛大学学报(自然科学版).2006.19(3)：71-76.
[23]Qi.X.Bard. J.. Yu. G. Supply chain coordination with demand disruptions[J]. Omega.2004.32.301-312.
[24]Wu M.C.Chang W. J. A Short-term capacity trading method for semiconductor fabs with partnership[J]. Expert System with Applications.2007.33(2):476-483.
[25]丁玲.对供应链突发事件防御的思考[J].北方经贸.2006.(5)：42-43.
[26]傅克俊.胡祥培.王旭坪.供应链系统中的应急策略与模型[J].中国软科学.2007.(5)：119-124.
[27]Chen. K. B. Xiao. T. J.. Demand disruption and coordination of the supply chain with a dominant retailer [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2009.197:225-234.
[28]Xiao. T. J. Yu. G. Supply chain disruption management And Evolutionarily Stable strategies of retailers in the quantity-setting duopoly situation with homogeneous goods[J]. EuroPean Journal Of Operational Research.2006.173:648-668.
[29]Simon C. Pietro R. Mihalis G. Supply chain management:an analytical framework for critical literature review[J]. European Journal of Purchasing&Supply Management.2000.6(1):67-83.
[30]刘浩华.供应链风险管理[M].北京：中国物资出版社.2009.17-19.
[31]Paul D. Berger. Arthur Gerstenfeld. Amy Z. Zeng. How many suppliers are best? A decision-analysis approach[J]. The International Journal of Management Science.2004 (32):9-15.
[32]宁钟,王雅倩.基于亚太地区类SARs传染性疾病流行情景的供应链风险识别[J].科技导报,2006,24(08)：44-4
[33]Bier, V. M., Haimes, Y. Y., Lambert, J. H., Matalas, N. C., Zimmerma, R.. A survey of approaches for assessing and managing the risk of extremes[J]. Risk Analysis,1999,19(1),83-94
[34]Knemeyer, A. M., Zinn, W., Eroglu, C.. Proactive planning for catastrophic events in supply chains[J]. Journal of Operations Management,2009,27(2):141-153
[35]Ruiz-Torres, A. J., Mahmood I, F.. The optimal number of suppliers considering the costs of individual supplier failures[J]. The International Journal of Management Science,2007,35:104-115
[36]Tomlin, B.. On the Value of Mitigation and Contingency Strategies for Managing Supply Chain Disruption Risk[J]. Management Science,2006,52(5):639-657.