深部层状盐岩地下储气库的风险评价与分析研究
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摘要
盐岩具有低渗透率、良好的蠕变行为和损伤自我恢复能力等特点,因此在盐岩介质中储存天然气时能够保证储库的密闭性和在变化储存压力下的储库的稳定性。正是由于盐岩地层的特殊性,利用深部盐岩洞穴进行能源储备形式已经被各国政府广泛认可。近年来,我国也已开始盐岩地下能源储备的选址及建设工作。尽管相对于其它地下能源储备围岩体,盐岩能源地下储备库具有较好的安全性,但近三十年来,国外盐岩地下油气储库灾难性事故时有发生,经常出现油气渗漏、溶腔失效、地表沉陷等灾害,对环境和能源储备安全带来了灾难性后果。而且相对国外在地层结构简单的巨厚盐丘中的储备库建设相比,我国的盐岩层具有埋藏浅、盐层薄、夹层多、品位低等特点,在这种地质条件相对复杂条件下建库,难度大、运行风险高,将面临更为复杂的科学问题和技术难题。尤其在风险管理方面亟需就相关的基础科学问题进行研究并取得突破,以满足我国能源储备安全的要求
本文的研究内容和主要研究成果如下：
(1)统计出盐岩地下储气库的风险事故,对可能导致地下油气储库产生油气渗漏、地表沉陷、库群破坏的灾变风险因素进行了分析和辨识,获得了层状盐岩地下储气库的主要风险因子
(2)建立了基于莫尔-库伦破坏准则的盐岩地下储气库片帮破坏风险功能函数,提出了基于改进一次二阶矩法的盐岩地下储气库片帮破坏风险失效概率的计算方法。
(3)根据盐岩损伤扩容边界线,建立了盐岩地下储气库的密闭性功能函数,提出了盐岩地下储气库的渗漏风险失效概率的计算方法。
(4)考虑盐岩储气库蠕变体积收缩,建立了基于时变可靠度的盐腔体积过度收敛风险功能函数,提出了盐岩地下储气库体积过度收敛风险失效概率的计算方法
(5)根据地下空间开采引起地表下沉的传播扩散规律,提出了储气库区地表沉降风险失效概率的计算方法
(6)将建立的风险分析方法应用于金坛层状盐岩地下储气库工程,对金坛层状盐岩地下储气库运营风险进行了评价分析,获得了不同失效模式下储气库的风险失效概率。
(7)根据建立的盐岩地下储气储风险评价方法和风险分级标准,基于Web编程技术初步开发了盐岩地下储气库风险信息管理与评估系统,实现了对盐岩地下油气储库群灾害风险的信息管理与风险评估
The salt rock has the properties of low permeability, creep behavior, damage self-healing ability and other good character istics; therefore it can provide a good storage cavern of natural gas with leakproofness and stability in spite of the dynamic stress. And it has become a common understanding worldwide that salt rock makes good natural gas storage. In recent years, China has also embarked on site selection and construction work of the underground energy reserves in salt rock caverns. Compared with other underground gas storages, salt rock caverns have better security. In the past3decades, however, disastrous accidents did frequent the salt rock storages of oil and gas, resulting in leakage, cavity failure, ground subsidence, and other disasters, conseque ntly seriously threatening the environment and people's safety. Nevertheless salt mines in China are characterized as coMParati vely shallower burial depth, lower thickness, multiple interlayer, lower grade and etc. Constructing gas storage caverns in those above situations means more difficulties and risks, and many scientific issues to study about, particularly in the risk assessment and management.
This paper focused on the following research:
(1)Statistic analysis of salt rock underground gas storage risk events has been done, and The main risk factor has been introduced in this paper. The risk of underground storages has been identified, attained the main risk factors.
(2) Performance function of rock salt underground gas storage shear failure was constructed based on the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. The calculation mothod of the salt rock underground gas storage shear failure probability has established on improved FOSM method.
(3) Performance function of rock salt underground gas storage leakage was constructed based on expansion of the boundary line of rock salt damage. Based on response surface-Monte Carlo method, the failure probability of underground gas storage leakage calculation method was established.
(4) The over convergence performance function has been constructed. Based on response surface-Monte Carlo method, the failure probability of underground gas storage over convergence calculation method was established.
(5) Recognize surface subsidence as the results of the mining space spreading, the sinking root function and sinking spread influence function was used to predict the surface subsidence, thereby the failure probability of underground gas storage surface subsidence calculation method was established.
(6) Risk has been assessed onJitan salt rock underground gas storage, the failure probability results under different failure modes has been gotted.
(7)This paper defines different levels of stability according to different failure possibilities and establishes a matrix to assess the risks of underground gas storages in salt rock. The Underground Salt Rock Gas Storage Risk Information Management and Assessment has been developed under the aids of the matrix, By means of that system, the risks of Jintan underground salt rock gas storage is graded.
本文的研究内容和主要研究成果如下：
(1)统计出盐岩地下储气库的风险事故,对可能导致地下油气储库产生油气渗漏、地表沉陷、库群破坏的灾变风险因素进行了分析和辨识,获得了层状盐岩地下储气库的主要风险因子
(2)建立了基于莫尔-库伦破坏准则的盐岩地下储气库片帮破坏风险功能函数,提出了基于改进一次二阶矩法的盐岩地下储气库片帮破坏风险失效概率的计算方法。
(3)根据盐岩损伤扩容边界线,建立了盐岩地下储气库的密闭性功能函数,提出了盐岩地下储气库的渗漏风险失效概率的计算方法。
(4)考虑盐岩储气库蠕变体积收缩,建立了基于时变可靠度的盐腔体积过度收敛风险功能函数,提出了盐岩地下储气库体积过度收敛风险失效概率的计算方法
(5)根据地下空间开采引起地表下沉的传播扩散规律,提出了储气库区地表沉降风险失效概率的计算方法
(6)将建立的风险分析方法应用于金坛层状盐岩地下储气库工程,对金坛层状盐岩地下储气库运营风险进行了评价分析,获得了不同失效模式下储气库的风险失效概率。
(7)根据建立的盐岩地下储气储风险评价方法和风险分级标准,基于Web编程技术初步开发了盐岩地下储气库风险信息管理与评估系统,实现了对盐岩地下油气储库群灾害风险的信息管理与风险评估
The salt rock has the properties of low permeability, creep behavior, damage self-healing ability and other good character istics; therefore it can provide a good storage cavern of natural gas with leakproofness and stability in spite of the dynamic stress. And it has become a common understanding worldwide that salt rock makes good natural gas storage. In recent years, China has also embarked on site selection and construction work of the underground energy reserves in salt rock caverns. Compared with other underground gas storages, salt rock caverns have better security. In the past3decades, however, disastrous accidents did frequent the salt rock storages of oil and gas, resulting in leakage, cavity failure, ground subsidence, and other disasters, conseque ntly seriously threatening the environment and people's safety. Nevertheless salt mines in China are characterized as coMParati vely shallower burial depth, lower thickness, multiple interlayer, lower grade and etc. Constructing gas storage caverns in those above situations means more difficulties and risks, and many scientific issues to study about, particularly in the risk assessment and management.
This paper focused on the following research:
(1)Statistic analysis of salt rock underground gas storage risk events has been done, and The main risk factor has been introduced in this paper. The risk of underground storages has been identified, attained the main risk factors.
(2) Performance function of rock salt underground gas storage shear failure was constructed based on the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. The calculation mothod of the salt rock underground gas storage shear failure probability has established on improved FOSM method.
(3) Performance function of rock salt underground gas storage leakage was constructed based on expansion of the boundary line of rock salt damage. Based on response surface-Monte Carlo method, the failure probability of underground gas storage leakage calculation method was established.
(4) The over convergence performance function has been constructed. Based on response surface-Monte Carlo method, the failure probability of underground gas storage over convergence calculation method was established.
(5) Recognize surface subsidence as the results of the mining space spreading, the sinking root function and sinking spread influence function was used to predict the surface subsidence, thereby the failure probability of underground gas storage surface subsidence calculation method was established.
(6) Risk has been assessed onJitan salt rock underground gas storage, the failure probability results under different failure modes has been gotted.
(7)This paper defines different levels of stability according to different failure possibilities and establishes a matrix to assess the risks of underground gas storages in salt rock. The Underground Salt Rock Gas Storage Risk Information Management and Assessment has been developed under the aids of the matrix, By means of that system, the risks of Jintan underground salt rock gas storage is graded.
引文
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