中国区域金融发展论
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摘要
近年来,随着我国各地区金融业的快速发展,区域金融发展已成为影响我国经济发展的重要因素。另外,随着各地区金融业的快速发展,区域间金融发展的空间异质性逐步显现,其变动趋势与演变规律也开始受到经济学界的广泛关注。对区域金融发展的研究离不开特定的地理空间,在报酬递增和垄断竞争的现实经济世界,区域金融发展呈现出“块状”特征。运用西方经济学经典理论和现代空间计量方法探索我国区域金融发展的空间分布及其演进规律,并在此基础上寻求区域金融发展对本地及周边的作用机制和影响因素显然具有较强的理论和现实意义。
区域金融发展的溢出效应包括本地溢出效应和跨区溢出效应。本地溢出效应是通过金融机构的风险管理机制、信息管理机制、成本管理机制和资源配置机制四大内生微观机制作用于资本积累和技术进步,从“质”和“量”两个层面共同推动本地区经济的整体发展。跨区溢出效应是通过区域金融发展中产生的空间溢出效应推动周边地区金融业乃至整体经济发展,这种跨区溢出效应包括金融集聚效应和金融扩散效应。一般而言,随时间推移金融集聚效应会不断减弱,而金融扩散效应会经历先以递增速率递增后以递减速率递增的持续增加的过程,综合前两种效应金融跨区溢出效应随着时间的推移会呈现出由负变正的变化规律。
本文借助Eviews6.0和GeoDaO.95i等计量经济学软件对我国区域金融发展的本地和周边溢出效应以及影响因素进行检验和分析,实证结果支持了理论研究的观点。实证结果表明：我国区域金融发展对本地区经济增长具有明显的正相关性；区内收入水平、人力资本水平、财政收支水平以及金融信息化水平是推动本地区金融发展的关键因素；区域金融发展存在显著的正向跨区溢出效应；政府行为、法律法规以及人文地理等非量化因素可能是影响区域金融跨区溢出效应发挥的重要因素。
因此,为了促进区域金融更好、更快地发展,需要大力提升区内的“四项水平”推动本地区金融业的快速发展；需要进一步打破区域限制,推进区域金融的跨区协调发展；需要化解城乡二元结构的矛盾,探索城乡金融的联动发展；需要破解金融行业间的壁垒,提升三大金融行业的合作深度与广度。
In recently years,with the fast development of financial industry in area all over the country, regional financial development has become an important factor of economic development in China. In addition, with the fast development of financial industry in each area, the spatial heterogeneity of the regional financial development has gradually appeared, and its trend of change and rule of evolution also have begun to get wildly attention by the economics. The research on the regional financial development can not do without specific geographical space in the real economic world where the reward is increasing and competition is monopoly. It apparenty has a strong theoretical and realistic significance to use the classical theory of western economics and modern space measurement method to explore the space distribution and its evolution rule of regional financial development in china,and on this basis, to seek mechanism of action and influence factors of regional financial development to the region and around.
The spillover effecs of regional financial developmen include local spillover effect and inter-district spillover effect. The local spillover effect acts on the capital accumulation and technology progress through four endogenous microscopic mechanisms of the financial institutions which are the risk management mechanism, the information management mechanism, cost management mechanism and resource allocation mechanism,and they promote the local economic development from quantitative change to qualitative changes together. Inter-district spillover effect promotes the financial industry and even the whole economy of the surrounding area through the spillover effect which is from the process of regional financial development. The inter-district spillover effect includes financial accumulation effect and financial diffusion effect. In general, the financial accumulation effect will be weakening with the time passed by, but the financial diffusion will experience the process in which it will be increase with increasing rate at first and then increase with d ecreasing rate.Combined with the two effects, the Inter-district spillover effect will present the rule of changing that it will become positive from negative with the time passed by.
This paper makes use of the Eviews6.0and GeoDa0.95I etc econometrics softwares to test and analyse the local and surrounding spillover effect of regional financial development and its influence factors. The empirical results support the point of view in this paper. The results show the conclusions below.The regional financial development has obviously positive correlation with local economic growth. The income level, the human capital level, the financial revenue and expenditure level and financial informatization level are key factors which promote local financial development. Regional financial development has a significant positive inter-district spillover effect. The government behavior, laws and regulations, and the humanistic geography,etc,non-quantitative factors may be the important factors which affect the spillover effects of the regional financial.
Therefore, In order to promote the development of regional financial better and faster, it needs to make great efforts to enhance the "four levels" to promote regional financial industry's rapid development; it needs to break area restrictions further to promote the coordinated development of the regional finance inter-district; it needs to resolve the contradiction between urban and rural structure to explore the linkage of the urban and rural financial development; it needs to crack the barriers in financial industry to promote the depth and breadth of three financial industries'cooperation.
区域金融发展的溢出效应包括本地溢出效应和跨区溢出效应。本地溢出效应是通过金融机构的风险管理机制、信息管理机制、成本管理机制和资源配置机制四大内生微观机制作用于资本积累和技术进步,从“质”和“量”两个层面共同推动本地区经济的整体发展。跨区溢出效应是通过区域金融发展中产生的空间溢出效应推动周边地区金融业乃至整体经济发展,这种跨区溢出效应包括金融集聚效应和金融扩散效应。一般而言,随时间推移金融集聚效应会不断减弱,而金融扩散效应会经历先以递增速率递增后以递减速率递增的持续增加的过程,综合前两种效应金融跨区溢出效应随着时间的推移会呈现出由负变正的变化规律。
本文借助Eviews6.0和GeoDaO.95i等计量经济学软件对我国区域金融发展的本地和周边溢出效应以及影响因素进行检验和分析,实证结果支持了理论研究的观点。实证结果表明：我国区域金融发展对本地区经济增长具有明显的正相关性；区内收入水平、人力资本水平、财政收支水平以及金融信息化水平是推动本地区金融发展的关键因素；区域金融发展存在显著的正向跨区溢出效应；政府行为、法律法规以及人文地理等非量化因素可能是影响区域金融跨区溢出效应发挥的重要因素。
因此,为了促进区域金融更好、更快地发展,需要大力提升区内的“四项水平”推动本地区金融业的快速发展；需要进一步打破区域限制,推进区域金融的跨区协调发展；需要化解城乡二元结构的矛盾,探索城乡金融的联动发展；需要破解金融行业间的壁垒,提升三大金融行业的合作深度与广度。
In recently years,with the fast development of financial industry in area all over the country, regional financial development has become an important factor of economic development in China. In addition, with the fast development of financial industry in each area, the spatial heterogeneity of the regional financial development has gradually appeared, and its trend of change and rule of evolution also have begun to get wildly attention by the economics. The research on the regional financial development can not do without specific geographical space in the real economic world where the reward is increasing and competition is monopoly. It apparenty has a strong theoretical and realistic significance to use the classical theory of western economics and modern space measurement method to explore the space distribution and its evolution rule of regional financial development in china,and on this basis, to seek mechanism of action and influence factors of regional financial development to the region and around.
The spillover effecs of regional financial developmen include local spillover effect and inter-district spillover effect. The local spillover effect acts on the capital accumulation and technology progress through four endogenous microscopic mechanisms of the financial institutions which are the risk management mechanism, the information management mechanism, cost management mechanism and resource allocation mechanism,and they promote the local economic development from quantitative change to qualitative changes together. Inter-district spillover effect promotes the financial industry and even the whole economy of the surrounding area through the spillover effect which is from the process of regional financial development. The inter-district spillover effect includes financial accumulation effect and financial diffusion effect. In general, the financial accumulation effect will be weakening with the time passed by, but the financial diffusion will experience the process in which it will be increase with increasing rate at first and then increase with d ecreasing rate.Combined with the two effects, the Inter-district spillover effect will present the rule of changing that it will become positive from negative with the time passed by.
This paper makes use of the Eviews6.0and GeoDa0.95I etc econometrics softwares to test and analyse the local and surrounding spillover effect of regional financial development and its influence factors. The empirical results support the point of view in this paper. The results show the conclusions below.The regional financial development has obviously positive correlation with local economic growth. The income level, the human capital level, the financial revenue and expenditure level and financial informatization level are key factors which promote local financial development. Regional financial development has a significant positive inter-district spillover effect. The government behavior, laws and regulations, and the humanistic geography,etc,non-quantitative factors may be the important factors which affect the spillover effects of the regional financial.
Therefore, In order to promote the development of regional financial better and faster, it needs to make great efforts to enhance the "four levels" to promote regional financial industry's rapid development; it needs to break area restrictions further to promote the coordinated development of the regional finance inter-district; it needs to resolve the contradiction between urban and rural structure to explore the linkage of the urban and rural financial development; it needs to crack the barriers in financial industry to promote the depth and breadth of three financial industries'cooperation.
引文
① 庄子银主编,《高级宏观经济学》,武汉大学出版社2004版,第189页。
② Pagano,M.. Financial Markets and Growth:An Overview. European Economic Review,1993.vol.37 No.3:613-622.
② 熊彼特方法是把熊彼特关于创新(创造性毁灭)是经济增长的源泉思想模型化,由阿吉翁和霍依特构造的包含资本积累的熊彼特内生增长模型。本节模型主要借鉴和参考了：菲利普·阿吉翁、彼得·霍依特：《内生增长理论》,陶然等译校,北京大学出版社2004年版。
① 这部分模型参考了：庄子银：《高级宏观经济学》,武汉大学出版社2004年版。
① 菲利普·阿吉翁、彼得·霍依特：《内生增长理论》,陶然等译校,北京大学出版社2004年版,第78页。
① 约瑟夫·熊彼特.《经济发展理论》,商务印书馆1990年版,第82页。
① 参见：Demetriades P.and Hussein.. Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? Time Series Evidence from 16 Countries. Journal of Development Economics:1996,51:387-411
① 参见：1) La Porta R.. LoPez-De-silanes F.Shleifer A. and Robert W.V. Legal Determinants of external Finance. Journal of Finance:1997,52(3):1131-1150 2) La Porta R., LoPez-De-silanes F.Shleifer A. and Robert W.V. Law and Finance. Journal of political Economy:1998.106(6):1113-1155
② 参见：Bordo M. D., and Rousseau P. L..Legal-Political Factors and the Historical Evolution of the Finance-growth Link. Review of Economic History:2006,10(3):432-444
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② Pagano,M.. Financial Markets and Growth:An Overview. European Economic Review,1993.vol.37 No.3:613-622.
② 熊彼特方法是把熊彼特关于创新(创造性毁灭)是经济增长的源泉思想模型化,由阿吉翁和霍依特构造的包含资本积累的熊彼特内生增长模型。本节模型主要借鉴和参考了：菲利普·阿吉翁、彼得·霍依特：《内生增长理论》,陶然等译校,北京大学出版社2004年版。
① 这部分模型参考了：庄子银：《高级宏观经济学》,武汉大学出版社2004年版。
① 菲利普·阿吉翁、彼得·霍依特：《内生增长理论》,陶然等译校,北京大学出版社2004年版,第78页。
① 约瑟夫·熊彼特.《经济发展理论》,商务印书馆1990年版,第82页。
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