全球经济不平衡下中国国际收支现状分析
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摘要
国际货币基金组织于2005年提出全球经济失衡的概念,近几年来,全球经济失衡已引起国内外学者广泛的关注。其具体表现为一国拥有庞大的贸易赤字,而与之对应的贸易伙伴国却贸易盈余。放眼世界,中美贸易失衡显然已成为全球经济失衡的首要问题。改革开放,特别是中国加入WTO以后,中国经济与世界经济紧密相关。全球经济失衡使中国经济也面临困境。中国国际收支的不平衡表现为“双顺差”的持续扩大,导致中国外汇储备规模不断扩大,同时也给中国经济的稳定和持续发展带来许多消极影响,如:增加中国与其他贸易国的贸易摩擦,贸易顺差与外资流入共同增大了中国外汇储备。外汇储备增加虽然可以抵御中国外部经济风险,但也增大储备货币贬值和资源浪费的压力,进而影响到国内货币政策的实施。如何改善全球经济失衡背景下中国国际收支不平衡,已成为中国学者迫切解决的一道难题。
本文着重分析在全球经济失衡产生的背景、原因以及在此环境下中国国际收支失衡的现状,利用传统国际收支调节理论建立模型分析中国国际收支失衡原因,并以此为基础,提出中国政府应采取如何有效措施调整中国国际收支失衡的相关政策。本文提出相应的政策措施是通过改善中国国际收支结构的不合理方面,从而调整中国国际收支失衡的局面,具体措施有:第一,适度调整我国出口产品结构;第二,保持人民币与美元汇率的稳定性;第三,改善我国外汇储备结构;第四,建立内需拉动的经济增长方式。
In 2005, the international monetary fund (IMF) proposed the concept of“global imbalances”. In recent years, the global imbalances had aroused wide attention of both the domestic and international scholars. Global imbalance is that one country has a huge trade deficit while trade surplus corresponding to such trade deficit is founded in other countries. At the present, the Sino-US trade imbalances mainly contributed to the global imbalances. After China's reform and opening-up, especially entry into the WTO, China's economy is deeply linked with the world economy. There is also a difficult situation for Chinese economy under the global imbalances. The imbalance in international payments of China represents as the continuous expansion of "double surpluses", which result in the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserve and negative effect for Chinese economic stability and sustainable development, including the rise in trade frictions with the trade partner countries and China's foreign exchange reserves. Although foreign exchange reserves can play a vital role in the Chinese economy's ability to withstand external risks, it also increases the devaluation of reserve currency and waste of resources, and then influence the implement of the China's monetary policy. The problem of the improvement of China’s international trade imbalances under the background of global imbalances has become a problem to the solved urgently for Chinese scholars.
The thesis analyzed the root of the global imbalances and status of the imbalance in international payments of China, using some built models form the mechanism of international payments imbalances. Based on these, the policy suggestions to adjust China’s vast surplus of balance of payments were proposed as follow: first, adjust the export structure; second, hold steady of the exchange rate of RMB & USD; third, improve the structure of foreign reserves; fourth, build the domestic demand-led growth of economy.
本文着重分析在全球经济失衡产生的背景、原因以及在此环境下中国国际收支失衡的现状,利用传统国际收支调节理论建立模型分析中国国际收支失衡原因,并以此为基础,提出中国政府应采取如何有效措施调整中国国际收支失衡的相关政策。本文提出相应的政策措施是通过改善中国国际收支结构的不合理方面,从而调整中国国际收支失衡的局面,具体措施有:第一,适度调整我国出口产品结构;第二,保持人民币与美元汇率的稳定性;第三,改善我国外汇储备结构;第四,建立内需拉动的经济增长方式。
In 2005, the international monetary fund (IMF) proposed the concept of“global imbalances”. In recent years, the global imbalances had aroused wide attention of both the domestic and international scholars. Global imbalance is that one country has a huge trade deficit while trade surplus corresponding to such trade deficit is founded in other countries. At the present, the Sino-US trade imbalances mainly contributed to the global imbalances. After China's reform and opening-up, especially entry into the WTO, China's economy is deeply linked with the world economy. There is also a difficult situation for Chinese economy under the global imbalances. The imbalance in international payments of China represents as the continuous expansion of "double surpluses", which result in the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserve and negative effect for Chinese economic stability and sustainable development, including the rise in trade frictions with the trade partner countries and China's foreign exchange reserves. Although foreign exchange reserves can play a vital role in the Chinese economy's ability to withstand external risks, it also increases the devaluation of reserve currency and waste of resources, and then influence the implement of the China's monetary policy. The problem of the improvement of China’s international trade imbalances under the background of global imbalances has become a problem to the solved urgently for Chinese scholars.
The thesis analyzed the root of the global imbalances and status of the imbalance in international payments of China, using some built models form the mechanism of international payments imbalances. Based on these, the policy suggestions to adjust China’s vast surplus of balance of payments were proposed as follow: first, adjust the export structure; second, hold steady of the exchange rate of RMB & USD; third, improve the structure of foreign reserves; fourth, build the domestic demand-led growth of economy.
引文
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[2]余维彬.全球经济失衡:起因,可维持性与应对[J],河南金融管理干部学院学报,2006,24(002):17-22.
[3]McKinnon, R., Schnabl, G. The East Asian dollar standard, fear of floating, and original sin[J].Review of Development Economics,2004,8(3):331-360.
[4]张明.全球经济再平衡:美国和中国的角色[J].中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所网站,2010.
[5]覃东海.欧美、中东和东亚:一个国际收支失衡的新框架[J].中国外汇,2007(01).
[6]左小蕾.谋求适度失衡下的一般均衡[R].上海证券报,2011-01-20.
[7]Dooley, M. P.; Folkerts-Landau, D.; Garber, P. M., An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA: 2003.
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[11]Freund, C., Warnock, F. Current account deficits in industrial countries [M].2005.
[12]陈文玲.中国需要主动进行开放战略的调整[J].国际经济评论,2006:21-22.
[13]李扬,余维彬.全球经济失衡与中国宏观经济政策[J].新金融,2006, (04):3-6.
[14]余永定.世界经济与中国:促进共同繁荣(上)全球经济不平衡,中国汇率政策和双顺差[J].国际金融研究,2006,(01).
[15]余永定,覃东海.中国的双顺差:性质,根源和解决办法[J].世界经济,2006, (03):31-41.
[16]黄瑞玲,黄忠平.中国国际收支失衡:理论解析与政策调整[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2004,(04):1-6.
[17]周凌飞.全球经济失衡背景下中国国际收支双顺差分析[D].长春:吉林大学,2007.
[18]雷达,赵勇.中美经济失衡的性质及调整:基于金融发展的视角[J].世界经济,2009,(01):62-71.
[19]Despres, E., Kindleberger, C. P., Salant, W.S. The dollar and world liquidity [M].1966.
[20]Fogli, A.; Perri, F., The "Great Moderation" and the US External Imbalance. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA: 2006.
[21]Chinn, M. D.; Ito, H., Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World" Savings Glut". National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA: 2005.
[22]Lane, P. R.; Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., A global perspective on external positions. University of Chicago Press: 2007.
[23]Caballero, R. J.; Farhi, E.; Gourinchas, P. O., An equilibrium model of "global imbalances" and low interest rates. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA: 2006.
[24]Gourinchas, P. O.; Rey, H., From world banker to world venture capitalist: US external adjustment and the exorbitant privilege. University of Chicago Press: 2007.
[25]Dodge, D. Global Imbalances: Why Worry? What to Do? [J].Speech to the New York Association for Business Economics, New York, 2006, 29.
[26]陈继勇,胡艺.知识经济时代与世界经济失衡问题的再认识[J].THE JOURNAL,2007.
[27]姚枝仲,齐俊妍.全球国际收支失衡及变化趋势[J].世界经济导刊,2006,(05).
[28]陈继勇,吴宏.全球经济失衡的可持续性问题研究—基于美中贸易失衡的角度[J].武汉大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2008,61(04):454-458.
[29]李涵硕.中国现阶段国际收支失衡问题研究[D].南京:南京师范大学,2008.
[30]姜波克,杨长江.国际金融学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004.
[31]朱孟楠.国际金融学[M].厦门:厦门大学出版社,1999.
[32]甘道尔夫.国际金融与开放经济的宏观经济学[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2006.
[33]厉以宁,秦宛顺.中国对外经济与国际收支研究[M].北京:国际文化出版公司1991.
[34]陈彪如.人民币汇率研究[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,1992.
[35]戴祖祥.我国贸易收支的弹性分析:1981—1995[J].经济研究,1997,(07):55-62.
[36]朱真丽,宁妮.中国贸易收支弹性分析[J].世界经济,2002, (11):26-31.
[37]谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济,2002,(09):27-34.
[38]殷德生.中国贸易收支的汇率弹性与收入弹性[J].世界经济研究,2004,(11):47-53.
[39]Krugman, P. R. Strategic trade policy and the new international economics [M].The MIT Press, 1986.
[40]Komiya, R. Economic growth and the balance of payments: A monetary approach [J].The Journal of Political Economy, 1969, 35-48.
[41]Dornbusch, R., Frenkel, J. A. Inflation and growth: alternative approaches [J].Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1973, 5(1):141-156.
[42]Aghevli, B. B., Khan, M. S. The Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments Determination: An Empirical Test [J].The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments: A Collection of Research Papers, 1992, 275.
[43]Johnson, H. G. The monetary approach to balance-of-payments theory [J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 1972, 7(02):1555-1572.
[44]丁骋骋,张立军.中国的经济高增长与国际收支顺差何以并存—基于货币分析法的解释[J].财经科学,2010, (04):32-40.
[45]斯蒂芬,罗奇,陈瑛.全球经济脱节[J].国际金融研究,2002,(04).
[46]王军生.金融结构优化的国际经验与借鉴[J].国际金融研究,2005,(10):72-77.
[47]姚国庆,经济虚拟化下的金融危机[M].天津:南开大学出版社:2005.
[48]余永定,何帆.评《中国经济的夏天》[J].世界经济,2005,(05).
[49]张幼文.要素流动与全球经济失衡的历史影响[J].国际经济评论,2006,(02).
[50]世行:促进消费增长,推动结构调整[J],财经网,2010-11-15.
[51]关于货币分析法的详细分析参考埃弗雷.克拉克,国际金融[M],北京大学出版社,2004.
[2]余维彬.全球经济失衡:起因,可维持性与应对[J],河南金融管理干部学院学报,2006,24(002):17-22.
[3]McKinnon, R., Schnabl, G. The East Asian dollar standard, fear of floating, and original sin[J].Review of Development Economics,2004,8(3):331-360.
[4]张明.全球经济再平衡:美国和中国的角色[J].中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所网站,2010.
[5]覃东海.欧美、中东和东亚:一个国际收支失衡的新框架[J].中国外汇,2007(01).
[6]左小蕾.谋求适度失衡下的一般均衡[R].上海证券报,2011-01-20.
[7]Dooley, M. P.; Folkerts-Landau, D.; Garber, P. M., An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA: 2003.
[8]Dooley, M. P.; Folkerts-Landau, D.; Garber, P.M., The revived Bretton Woods system: the effects of periphery intervention and reserve management on interest rates & exchange rates in center countries. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA: 2004.
[9]Taniuchi, M. Global imbalances and Asian economies [J].JBICI REVIEW, 2006,141.
[10]De Gregorio, J. Global imbalances and exchange rate adjustment [J].Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile, 2005.
[11]Freund, C., Warnock, F. Current account deficits in industrial countries [M].2005.
[12]陈文玲.中国需要主动进行开放战略的调整[J].国际经济评论,2006:21-22.
[13]李扬,余维彬.全球经济失衡与中国宏观经济政策[J].新金融,2006, (04):3-6.
[14]余永定.世界经济与中国:促进共同繁荣(上)全球经济不平衡,中国汇率政策和双顺差[J].国际金融研究,2006,(01).
[15]余永定,覃东海.中国的双顺差:性质,根源和解决办法[J].世界经济,2006, (03):31-41.
[16]黄瑞玲,黄忠平.中国国际收支失衡:理论解析与政策调整[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2004,(04):1-6.
[17]周凌飞.全球经济失衡背景下中国国际收支双顺差分析[D].长春:吉林大学,2007.
[18]雷达,赵勇.中美经济失衡的性质及调整:基于金融发展的视角[J].世界经济,2009,(01):62-71.
[19]Despres, E., Kindleberger, C. P., Salant, W.S. The dollar and world liquidity [M].1966.
[20]Fogli, A.; Perri, F., The "Great Moderation" and the US External Imbalance. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA: 2006.
[21]Chinn, M. D.; Ito, H., Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World" Savings Glut". National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA: 2005.
[22]Lane, P. R.; Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., A global perspective on external positions. University of Chicago Press: 2007.
[23]Caballero, R. J.; Farhi, E.; Gourinchas, P. O., An equilibrium model of "global imbalances" and low interest rates. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA: 2006.
[24]Gourinchas, P. O.; Rey, H., From world banker to world venture capitalist: US external adjustment and the exorbitant privilege. University of Chicago Press: 2007.
[25]Dodge, D. Global Imbalances: Why Worry? What to Do? [J].Speech to the New York Association for Business Economics, New York, 2006, 29.
[26]陈继勇,胡艺.知识经济时代与世界经济失衡问题的再认识[J].THE JOURNAL,2007.
[27]姚枝仲,齐俊妍.全球国际收支失衡及变化趋势[J].世界经济导刊,2006,(05).
[28]陈继勇,吴宏.全球经济失衡的可持续性问题研究—基于美中贸易失衡的角度[J].武汉大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2008,61(04):454-458.
[29]李涵硕.中国现阶段国际收支失衡问题研究[D].南京:南京师范大学,2008.
[30]姜波克,杨长江.国际金融学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004.
[31]朱孟楠.国际金融学[M].厦门:厦门大学出版社,1999.
[32]甘道尔夫.国际金融与开放经济的宏观经济学[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2006.
[33]厉以宁,秦宛顺.中国对外经济与国际收支研究[M].北京:国际文化出版公司1991.
[34]陈彪如.人民币汇率研究[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,1992.
[35]戴祖祥.我国贸易收支的弹性分析:1981—1995[J].经济研究,1997,(07):55-62.
[36]朱真丽,宁妮.中国贸易收支弹性分析[J].世界经济,2002, (11):26-31.
[37]谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济,2002,(09):27-34.
[38]殷德生.中国贸易收支的汇率弹性与收入弹性[J].世界经济研究,2004,(11):47-53.
[39]Krugman, P. R. Strategic trade policy and the new international economics [M].The MIT Press, 1986.
[40]Komiya, R. Economic growth and the balance of payments: A monetary approach [J].The Journal of Political Economy, 1969, 35-48.
[41]Dornbusch, R., Frenkel, J. A. Inflation and growth: alternative approaches [J].Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1973, 5(1):141-156.
[42]Aghevli, B. B., Khan, M. S. The Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments Determination: An Empirical Test [J].The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments: A Collection of Research Papers, 1992, 275.
[43]Johnson, H. G. The monetary approach to balance-of-payments theory [J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 1972, 7(02):1555-1572.
[44]丁骋骋,张立军.中国的经济高增长与国际收支顺差何以并存—基于货币分析法的解释[J].财经科学,2010, (04):32-40.
[45]斯蒂芬,罗奇,陈瑛.全球经济脱节[J].国际金融研究,2002,(04).
[46]王军生.金融结构优化的国际经验与借鉴[J].国际金融研究,2005,(10):72-77.
[47]姚国庆,经济虚拟化下的金融危机[M].天津:南开大学出版社:2005.
[48]余永定,何帆.评《中国经济的夏天》[J].世界经济,2005,(05).
[49]张幼文.要素流动与全球经济失衡的历史影响[J].国际经济评论,2006,(02).
[50]世行:促进消费增长,推动结构调整[J],财经网,2010-11-15.
[51]关于货币分析法的详细分析参考埃弗雷.克拉克,国际金融[M],北京大学出版社,2004.