城市居民生活消费CO_2排放估算方法及应用初步研究
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摘要
随着我国社会经济发展、城市化进程加快、人口数量增长和人民生活水平提高,居民生活消费人均二氧化碳排放量持续走高,而随着工业化进程加快,产业结构调整、经济增长方式的转变以及节能技术的推广,第二产业能耗会大幅降低。与此同时,居民生活能源消费在总的能源消费中所占比例显著增加。欧盟已有研究表明二十世纪九十年代居民家庭生活能源需求就已经超过了工业能源的需求,尽管我国的工业化道路不同于欧盟国家,但随着我国城市化进程加快,农村人口大量进入城市以及生活水平提高引起的人均用能大幅增加,都将导致城市居民生活能源消费量大幅增长。为履行我国在哥本哈根大会上提出的碳减排承诺、制定切实可行的碳减排行动方案,首先应准确客观地估算出我国当前的碳排放水平。
因此本研究着眼于天津市居民生活消费二氧化碳排放的估算,考察居民生活消费二氧化碳排放在整个国民经济二氧化碳排放中所占比例,探索寻求新的二氧化碳减排路径和对策,为我国制定“十二”规划和政府决策提供基础依据。
本文在梳理国内外居民生活能源消费二氧化碳排放估算方法的基础上,分析各种方法的优缺点和其适用性,根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)碳排放计算指南(2006年版)中的计算公式和二氧化碳排放系数缺省值,建立了居住综合消费碳排放、叠加交通消费碳排放计算模型,并以此为基础,估算了2006～2008年天津市居民人均生活消费二氧化碳排放量及其在总的能源消费二氧化碳排放量中所占比例。结果表明,2006～2008年天津市居民生活消费二氧化碳排放量呈逐年上升趋势,2008年的排放量比2006年增加了13.7%。居民生活消费二氧化碳排放在总的能源消费二氧化碳排放中所占比例整体呈上升趋势,并从产业结构和能源消费结构两个角度分析了导致这一现象的原因。同时,从能源消费结构角度出发,对天津和北京两地居民居住消费产生的二氧化碳排放情况进行了比较。最后,应用情景分析法预测了基准情景和参考情景下的二氧化碳排放水平,2015年基准情景下天津市居民生活消费二氧化碳排放量为2248.5万t,参考情景下该值为2165.2万t。最后,根据估算结果,从能源结构、低碳建筑、低碳交通和低碳消费模式四个方面提出了相应的的二氧化碳减排对策措施。
With the development of social economy, urbanization, population and living standards, the household CO2 emission per capita is growing, considering the acceleration of industrialization, the transformation of industrial structure and the mode of economic growth, as well as the spread of energy-saving technology, the energy consumption of secondary industry will reduce significantly. Meanwhile, the proportion of the household energy consumption in total energy consumption increases hugely. The studies from EU have shown that the demand of household energy consumption exceeded the industrial energy consumption in the 1990s. China's industrialization is different from EU countries, but the acceleration of urbanization, the distribution of rural population and the improving of living standards still lead to the increase of household energy consumption. In order to fulfill the commitment of reducing the CO2 emission that China announced in Copenhagen Conference and make the plan for carbon emission reduction, most importantly the current level of carbon emission should be estimated accurately.
The study focuses on the estimation of household CO2 emission in Tianjin and the proportion of household CO2 in the CO2 emission of energy of whole national economy. Aimed to seek for the effective paths of household CO2 emission reduction and provide the data support for the government making decision.
After sorting out the reference about the methods on estimation of household CO2 emission, the author defined the advantages, disadvantages and applicabilities of these various methods. According to methodologies and emission default values in 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, a Carbon Emission model integrating Residential and Traffic Energy Consumption (CERTEC) was developed to estimate the household CO2 emission per capita between 2006 and 2008 in Tianjin, China. The proportion of household CO2 emission in the total energy related CO2 emission was also calculated. The primary findings of the research are as follows, household CO2 emission levels and intensities both increased between 2006 and 2008 in Tianjin, and the household CO2 emission increased by 13.7% between 2006 and 2008. Then the results were analyzed in terms of industrial structure and energy consumption. At the same time, the difference of household CO2 emission between Beijing and Tianjin was compared from the angel of the structure of energy consumption. Then the scenario analysis was used to predict the household CO2 emission in 2015, the emission of baseline scenario is 22,485,OOOt and that of reference scenario is 21,652,OOOt. Finally, the measures of reducing the household CO2 emission were provided from the angle of energy structure, low-carbon building, low-carbon transport and low-carbon consumption.
因此本研究着眼于天津市居民生活消费二氧化碳排放的估算,考察居民生活消费二氧化碳排放在整个国民经济二氧化碳排放中所占比例,探索寻求新的二氧化碳减排路径和对策,为我国制定“十二”规划和政府决策提供基础依据。
本文在梳理国内外居民生活能源消费二氧化碳排放估算方法的基础上,分析各种方法的优缺点和其适用性,根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)碳排放计算指南(2006年版)中的计算公式和二氧化碳排放系数缺省值,建立了居住综合消费碳排放、叠加交通消费碳排放计算模型,并以此为基础,估算了2006～2008年天津市居民人均生活消费二氧化碳排放量及其在总的能源消费二氧化碳排放量中所占比例。结果表明,2006～2008年天津市居民生活消费二氧化碳排放量呈逐年上升趋势,2008年的排放量比2006年增加了13.7%。居民生活消费二氧化碳排放在总的能源消费二氧化碳排放中所占比例整体呈上升趋势,并从产业结构和能源消费结构两个角度分析了导致这一现象的原因。同时,从能源消费结构角度出发,对天津和北京两地居民居住消费产生的二氧化碳排放情况进行了比较。最后,应用情景分析法预测了基准情景和参考情景下的二氧化碳排放水平,2015年基准情景下天津市居民生活消费二氧化碳排放量为2248.5万t,参考情景下该值为2165.2万t。最后,根据估算结果,从能源结构、低碳建筑、低碳交通和低碳消费模式四个方面提出了相应的的二氧化碳减排对策措施。
With the development of social economy, urbanization, population and living standards, the household CO2 emission per capita is growing, considering the acceleration of industrialization, the transformation of industrial structure and the mode of economic growth, as well as the spread of energy-saving technology, the energy consumption of secondary industry will reduce significantly. Meanwhile, the proportion of the household energy consumption in total energy consumption increases hugely. The studies from EU have shown that the demand of household energy consumption exceeded the industrial energy consumption in the 1990s. China's industrialization is different from EU countries, but the acceleration of urbanization, the distribution of rural population and the improving of living standards still lead to the increase of household energy consumption. In order to fulfill the commitment of reducing the CO2 emission that China announced in Copenhagen Conference and make the plan for carbon emission reduction, most importantly the current level of carbon emission should be estimated accurately.
The study focuses on the estimation of household CO2 emission in Tianjin and the proportion of household CO2 in the CO2 emission of energy of whole national economy. Aimed to seek for the effective paths of household CO2 emission reduction and provide the data support for the government making decision.
After sorting out the reference about the methods on estimation of household CO2 emission, the author defined the advantages, disadvantages and applicabilities of these various methods. According to methodologies and emission default values in 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, a Carbon Emission model integrating Residential and Traffic Energy Consumption (CERTEC) was developed to estimate the household CO2 emission per capita between 2006 and 2008 in Tianjin, China. The proportion of household CO2 emission in the total energy related CO2 emission was also calculated. The primary findings of the research are as follows, household CO2 emission levels and intensities both increased between 2006 and 2008 in Tianjin, and the household CO2 emission increased by 13.7% between 2006 and 2008. Then the results were analyzed in terms of industrial structure and energy consumption. At the same time, the difference of household CO2 emission between Beijing and Tianjin was compared from the angel of the structure of energy consumption. Then the scenario analysis was used to predict the household CO2 emission in 2015, the emission of baseline scenario is 22,485,OOOt and that of reference scenario is 21,652,OOOt. Finally, the measures of reducing the household CO2 emission were provided from the angle of energy structure, low-carbon building, low-carbon transport and low-carbon consumption.
引文
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