基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的我国财政政策效应分析
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摘要
财政政策是宏观经济调控的两大主要工具之一，财政政策对产品市场、货币市场和劳动市场的影响究竟如何因此成为国内外经济学者研究的重点内容之一。但是关于财政政策的宏观经济效应，至今经济学界都没有形成共识。自1992年来，我国经历了几次宏观经济波动，我国政府根据经济发展不同阶段的运行态势，实施了不同的财政政策。自2008年下半年开始，为了应对国际金融危机的影响，我国实行了新一轮的积极的财政政策。在应对金融危机而采取扩张性财政政策的今天，对财政政策效应的研究是一个热点问题。我国财政政策的效应到底如何，对宏观经济的影响有哪些？其传导机制又是什么？财政政策和货币政策相互关系如何，应如何配合或协调才能更好地发挥财政政策稳定经济和促进经济增长的作用？对这些问题的回答，在理论和实践中都有重要的意义。
本文立足于对前人研究成果的辨析，综合运用了当今宏观经济分析最为前沿的分析方法和工具即动态随机一般均衡的分析方法，构建了与我国经济环境相适应的新凯恩斯主义的动态随机一般均衡模型，在一个统一的框架下分析了政府支出的经济效应、财政赤字与通货膨胀的关系以及财政政策与货币政策的相互作用。通过实证研究，本文得出了以下几点有意义的结论：
第一，我国以财政支出以及货币供应量为主要政策工具的财政政策和货币政策对宏观经济波动具有显著的稳定效应。具体表现在，财政扩张政府购买支出增加、货币扩张货币供应量增加，对宏观经济的影响均是正的，产出这一最重要的宏观经济变量对政策工具扩张的反应是正的；同时，就业增加，通货膨胀率上升。这一结论不但支持了凯恩斯主义的观点，而且与我国的实际经验一致。因此，我国政府采取的相机抉择的财政货币政策可以在一定程度上稳定宏观经济波动。
第二，增加财政支出的扩张性财政政策对私人部门存在着“挤出效应”。本文的分析表明，财政支出增加的冲击导致消费下降，这一结论与宏观经济理论相符。消费对积极财政政策的负向反应，是与模型对消费者的假设相关的，本文假设李嘉图式的消费者，财政扩张必然导致未来税收增加，从而影响消费者的跨期消费行为。2008年金融危机后，我国政府采取了积极的财政政策，快速阻止了经济增速的下滑，下一步财政政策的重点是要拉动居民消费，使我国经济增长从过度依赖投资和出口转到依靠国内消费上来，因此进一步研究财政支出对居民消费的影响具有重大的理论和现实意义。
第三，扩张性的财政货币政策也会带来一些不利于经济持续稳定发展的后果。本文的分析还表明，财政支出的增加和货币供应量的增加均会导致通货膨胀率的上升。因此我们在运用积极的财政货币政策调控宏观经济时，一定要警惕可能出现的通胀风险，适时的进行政策转换。
第四，在一定的财政政策规则与货币政策规则假设下，我国财政政策和货币政策之间存在着相互替代的关系。本文仿真结果表明，不管经济遭受的冲击是何种类型，我国两大宏观经济政策财政和货币政策总是相互替代的。根据研究结果，本文认为，为使财政政策和货币政策能更有效地配合以促进经济平稳增长，必须重视对经济环境中的冲击分析以选择合适的政策组合。
Fiscal policy is one of the two main tools of macroeconomic regulation and control,The effects of fiscal policy have therefore become one of the key elements of domesticand international economic scholars, and have always been the focus of debate as well asthe important reference of macro policy formulation,But so far a few of commonconclusions have been gotten.Since1992, China has experienced a few macroeconomicvolatility, According to the different stages of economic development the governmentimplemented different fiscal policy. In the second half of2008, in order to cope with theinternational financial crisis, China adopted a new round of expansionary fiscal policy,Sothe study on the effects of fiscal policy is a hot issue. What are the effects of fiscal policyin China in the end? And what is the transmission mechanism? What is the relationshipbetween fiscal policy and monetary policy, and How to they cooperate or coordinate inorder to stabilize the economy and promote the economic growth? The answers to thesequestions have important significance in the theory and practice.
In recent years, the effects of china’s fiscal policy have been extensively studied fromthe perspective of theoretical and empirical, but there are also flaws andshortcomings.Based on the analysis of the results of previous studies and foreign studies,This dissertation applies the new Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General EquilibriumModel (DSGE) to study China’s fiscal policy effects. Through empirical study, thisdissertation draws some meaningful conclusions:
First, the fiscal and monetary policies of China which use fiscal expenditure andmoney supply as the main policy tool has a significant stabilizing effect.This conclusionnot only supports the Keynesian view, but also is consistent with our actual experience.Therefore, during the recession, expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy can beimplemented to prevent the decline in aggregate demand and increase employment at the same time. On the contrary, contractionary macroeconomic policy can be implemented inan overheated economy.
Second, the expansionary fiscal policy that increases fiscal spending might producecrowding-out effect on the private sector. This paper shows that an increase in governmentspending financed by higher future taxes will lead to a reduction in consumption whichcoincides with macroeconomic theory.and the result is associated with the assumption ofthe model to consumers,that is Ricardian consumers. After the financial crisis in2008, theexpansionary fiscal policy stabilized China's economy rapidly, next fiscal policy aims topromote consumption,and transform China's economic growth pattern from excessivedependence on investment and exports to relying on domestic consumption, Therefore,further study has a profound significance.
Third, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies will also have consequences that arenot conducive to sustained and stable economic development. This paper also shows thatthe expansionary Macroeconomic policy will lead to rising inflation. Therefore, when thegovernment intervene macroeconomic, it must be alert to inflation risk that might arise,and switch policy timely.
Fourth, On the assumption of certain fiscal policy rules and monetary policy rules,China's fiscal-monetary policy interactions tend to counteract each other over the cycle.The simulation results show that the substitutability of fiscal and monetary policy doesn’tdepend on the types of shocks hitting the economy.So,we argues that it is important toanalyze the nature of shocks in the economy in order to select the appropriate policycombination.
本文立足于对前人研究成果的辨析，综合运用了当今宏观经济分析最为前沿的分析方法和工具即动态随机一般均衡的分析方法，构建了与我国经济环境相适应的新凯恩斯主义的动态随机一般均衡模型，在一个统一的框架下分析了政府支出的经济效应、财政赤字与通货膨胀的关系以及财政政策与货币政策的相互作用。通过实证研究，本文得出了以下几点有意义的结论：
第一，我国以财政支出以及货币供应量为主要政策工具的财政政策和货币政策对宏观经济波动具有显著的稳定效应。具体表现在，财政扩张政府购买支出增加、货币扩张货币供应量增加，对宏观经济的影响均是正的，产出这一最重要的宏观经济变量对政策工具扩张的反应是正的；同时，就业增加，通货膨胀率上升。这一结论不但支持了凯恩斯主义的观点，而且与我国的实际经验一致。因此，我国政府采取的相机抉择的财政货币政策可以在一定程度上稳定宏观经济波动。
第二，增加财政支出的扩张性财政政策对私人部门存在着“挤出效应”。本文的分析表明，财政支出增加的冲击导致消费下降，这一结论与宏观经济理论相符。消费对积极财政政策的负向反应，是与模型对消费者的假设相关的，本文假设李嘉图式的消费者，财政扩张必然导致未来税收增加，从而影响消费者的跨期消费行为。2008年金融危机后，我国政府采取了积极的财政政策，快速阻止了经济增速的下滑，下一步财政政策的重点是要拉动居民消费，使我国经济增长从过度依赖投资和出口转到依靠国内消费上来，因此进一步研究财政支出对居民消费的影响具有重大的理论和现实意义。
第三，扩张性的财政货币政策也会带来一些不利于经济持续稳定发展的后果。本文的分析还表明，财政支出的增加和货币供应量的增加均会导致通货膨胀率的上升。因此我们在运用积极的财政货币政策调控宏观经济时，一定要警惕可能出现的通胀风险，适时的进行政策转换。
第四，在一定的财政政策规则与货币政策规则假设下，我国财政政策和货币政策之间存在着相互替代的关系。本文仿真结果表明，不管经济遭受的冲击是何种类型，我国两大宏观经济政策财政和货币政策总是相互替代的。根据研究结果，本文认为，为使财政政策和货币政策能更有效地配合以促进经济平稳增长，必须重视对经济环境中的冲击分析以选择合适的政策组合。
Fiscal policy is one of the two main tools of macroeconomic regulation and control,The effects of fiscal policy have therefore become one of the key elements of domesticand international economic scholars, and have always been the focus of debate as well asthe important reference of macro policy formulation,But so far a few of commonconclusions have been gotten.Since1992, China has experienced a few macroeconomicvolatility, According to the different stages of economic development the governmentimplemented different fiscal policy. In the second half of2008, in order to cope with theinternational financial crisis, China adopted a new round of expansionary fiscal policy,Sothe study on the effects of fiscal policy is a hot issue. What are the effects of fiscal policyin China in the end? And what is the transmission mechanism? What is the relationshipbetween fiscal policy and monetary policy, and How to they cooperate or coordinate inorder to stabilize the economy and promote the economic growth? The answers to thesequestions have important significance in the theory and practice.
In recent years, the effects of china’s fiscal policy have been extensively studied fromthe perspective of theoretical and empirical, but there are also flaws andshortcomings.Based on the analysis of the results of previous studies and foreign studies,This dissertation applies the new Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General EquilibriumModel (DSGE) to study China’s fiscal policy effects. Through empirical study, thisdissertation draws some meaningful conclusions:
First, the fiscal and monetary policies of China which use fiscal expenditure andmoney supply as the main policy tool has a significant stabilizing effect.This conclusionnot only supports the Keynesian view, but also is consistent with our actual experience.Therefore, during the recession, expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy can beimplemented to prevent the decline in aggregate demand and increase employment at the same time. On the contrary, contractionary macroeconomic policy can be implemented inan overheated economy.
Second, the expansionary fiscal policy that increases fiscal spending might producecrowding-out effect on the private sector. This paper shows that an increase in governmentspending financed by higher future taxes will lead to a reduction in consumption whichcoincides with macroeconomic theory.and the result is associated with the assumption ofthe model to consumers,that is Ricardian consumers. After the financial crisis in2008, theexpansionary fiscal policy stabilized China's economy rapidly, next fiscal policy aims topromote consumption,and transform China's economic growth pattern from excessivedependence on investment and exports to relying on domestic consumption, Therefore,further study has a profound significance.
Third, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies will also have consequences that arenot conducive to sustained and stable economic development. This paper also shows thatthe expansionary Macroeconomic policy will lead to rising inflation. Therefore, when thegovernment intervene macroeconomic, it must be alert to inflation risk that might arise,and switch policy timely.
Fourth, On the assumption of certain fiscal policy rules and monetary policy rules,China's fiscal-monetary policy interactions tend to counteract each other over the cycle.The simulation results show that the substitutability of fiscal and monetary policy doesn’tdepend on the types of shocks hitting the economy.So,we argues that it is important toanalyze the nature of shocks in the economy in order to select the appropriate policycombination.
引文
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①参考王立勇，石柱鲜.财政政策非线性效应研究综述.经济学动态.2006，(8)。
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