我国铁矿资源产业链分析及其供给战略研究
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摘要
中国是世界上最大的钢铁生产国和消费国,但我国境内拥有的铁矿资源又较为贫乏。由于近10年来钢铁业的超常发展,我国铁矿石的供给依赖于海外的状况越来越严重,2003年～2008年的6年间,国际铁矿石基准价六年累计涨幅达到270.52%,如此疯涨的铁矿石价格给我国钢铁企业带来了极大的成本压力,为今后的健康发展也蒙上了厚厚的阴影。对中国这样的发展中国家来说,工业化进程的加速需要钢铁工业承担着不可替代的重任,钢铁业对铁矿资源的需求是长期的,所以,建立稳定的铁矿资源供给战略十分迫切,这是关乎我国钢铁业生死存亡,能否持续发展的重大战略性课题。
本文系统吸收了产业经济理论、企业竞争理论、制度经济学、博弈理论等相关领域的研究成果,采用定性分析和定量分析相结合,规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法,针对我国钢铁工业发展中铁矿资源约束及其供给问题做以探讨,试图对以下两个问题进行了较为系统的研究：(1)从产业链出发,论证了我国钢铁工业发展中铁矿资源约束的问题。(2)从产业供应链出发,揭示了我国实施资源产业发展,钢铁工业实施产业链整合,优化供应链战略,实现全球铁矿资源的优化配置。围绕这两大问题,论文的研究工作和内容主要体现在以下几个方面：
(1)钢铁工业资源约束的原因和机理研究
在钢铁产业链条中,我国铁矿资源在自然条件上从生产数量和质量上都不能满足钢铁工业发展的需求,在采矿、冶炼、加工三个钢铁产业环节中,采矿环节的资本和技术的投入完全落后于其它两个环节,在钢铁工业发展中是滞后的。我国铁矿资源生产一直以钢铁工业的附庸存在,所以铁矿资源状况是钢铁工业整个产业链条中最薄弱的,是钢铁工业可持续发展的制约环节。
(2)国际铁矿石市场产业组织的博弈分析
从全球角度,对国际铁矿资源企业的产业组织特点做以经济分析,通过对他们高度寡头垄断的市场格局、铁矿石交易制度的形成、交易价格的谈判机制、他们之间的联盟博弈、铁矿石供方和需方的博弈等角度分析,国际铁矿业的市场高度垄断格局由于全球高质铁矿资源的供不应求而将在一段时间内继续存在。
(3)我国钢铁资源产业的产业价值链现状剖析
应用产业链理论,分别从空间链、企业链、供需链、价值链、物流链等五维角度对我国钢铁工业及铁矿资源产业的现状进行了深入分析,进一步得出制约我国钢铁工业发展的根本原因、我国钢铁产业链严重失衡,钢铁产业价值链不合理等结论,为后续研究打下铺垫。
(4)钢铁工业的产业链整合及产业供应链的组织模式
面临国际国内铁矿资源的现状,提出我国国内铁矿资源产业尽快发展壮大,实行大资源重组的发展思路；针对钢铁产业链结构失衡,提出国内钢铁企业必须进行产业调整、企业重组与产业链整合提高产业的集中度,在国内外通过投资、控股、股权并购等方式对产业链上下游关键环节的企业实施整合,以构筑通畅、稳定和完整的产业供应链模式,钢铁企业与铁矿石供应商应形成最优的供应链关系,共同应对易变的市场,以解决铁矿资源供应约束问题和整个产业链的协调发展；通过Stackelberg博弈分析,构建国际铁矿资源主从联盟的产业供应链,对联盟双方之间利润分配的决策变量进行分析,结果也证明,国际铁矿石主从方建立集中模式下的联盟关系,可使双方的利益最大化。
(5)铁矿资源的全球进口优化配置
基于我国国内铁矿资源可持续发展的目标做战略规划,既控制国内铁矿石生产企业每年的最优开采量,又在国家层面上建立铁矿资源战略储备,在此基础上,实行全球进口铁矿资源进口量的最优配置,摆脱对个别国际铁矿企业的过度依赖,形成我国铁矿石资源供应的最优供应链,解决国内钢铁工业发展之所需；并就建立我国铁矿资源供应保障体系提出战略措施。
China is the largest steel producer and consumer in the world, but it is still the one with few iron ore resource. Due to the extraordinary development of steel industry over the past decade, the situation of depending upon overseas supply of iron ore is becoming more and more serious. Within the six years from 2003 to 2008, the international benchmark price of iron ore rose accumulatively by up to 270.52%. The soaring price of iron ore not only puts huge cost pressure on the iron and steel enterprises in China, but also casts a thick shadow on their future healthy development. For such a developing country like China, the acceleration of industrialization process needs iron and steel industry to undertake an irreplaceable task, while the latter demands for a long-term iron ore deposit supply. Therefore, it is urgent to develop a strategy aimed at stable supply of iron ore resource, and this will be a great strategic project which is crucial to the survival and sustainable development of iron and steel industry.
Assimilating some research findings such as theory of industrial organization, theory of enterprise competitiveness, institutional economics, theory of games and other theories in related areas, this dissertation investigates the supply of iron ore resource and its constraint on the development of iron and steel industry in China, in the methods of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis as well as combining normative analysis with empirical analysis, attempting to investigate systemically on the following two issues:(1) From the point of view of industrial chain, this dissertation demonstrates the constraint by iron ore resource supply on the development of iron and steel industry in China. (2) From the point of view of industrial supply chain, this dissertation reveals that our country, on the one hand, implements the development of resource industry, on the other hand, integrates the industrial chain in the iron and steel industry and optimizes the strategy of supply chain, so that global optimization of allocation of iron ore resource can be achieved. Concerning these two issues, the research and content of this dissertation are illustrated as following:
(1) The research on the reason and mechanism of constraint on the iron and steel industry by resources.
In the chain of iron and steel industry, the iron ore resource in our country can not meet the needs of iron and steel industry in either quantity or quality for their natural property. Among three steel industrial links of mining, smelting, and machining, the investment of capital and technology in the mining link has trailed seriously behind the other two links, and it still remain stagnant in the development of steel industry. In our country, the production of iron ore deposit has been the appendage of steel industry for a long time, therefore the iron ore deposit supply is the weakest link in the whole chain of steel industry, as well as the bottleneck in the sustainable development of steel industry.
(2) The game analysis of industrial organization in the international iron ore market.
From the global point of view, this dissertation analyzes the characteristics of industrial organization of international iron ore enterprises. These analyses are made respectively from the aspects of market structure formed by their extreme oligarch monopoly, the formation of trade system of iron ore, the negotiating mechanism of trade price, the allied game theory existed among them, and the game theory between the suppliers and buyers of iron ore. This structure will exist for a time for lack of good quality iron ore supply around the globe.
(3) The anatomy on the actual industrial value chain of steel resource industry in our country.
Applying the theory of industrial chain, this dissertation penetrates into actual steel industrial and steel resource industry in our country from five-dimensional angles of spatial chain, enterprise chain, supply chain, value chain, and logistics chain. Then the underlying reason for constraint on the development of steel industry in our country can be educed. In addition, conclusions that steel industrial chain is severely unbalanced and that steel industrial value chain is unreasonable can be drawn, which will lay the foundation for further research.
(4) The integration of industrial chain in steel industry and the structure mode of industrial supply chain.
Faced with the situation of iron ore resource at home and abroad, this dissertation puts forward the thought of developing domestic iron ore resource industry as soon as possible and reorganizing main resources. Concerning the shortage of steel resource, this dissertation concludes that domestic steel enterprises should enhance industrial centralization through industrial restructuring, reshuffle of enterprises and integration of industrial chain. It also points out that those enterprises which are the key links of upstream and downstream in the industrial chain should be integrated, in the manner of investment, stock controlling and equity merger at home and abroad. To solve the problem of iron ore supply constraint, a smooth, stable and complete mode of industrial chain should be constructed, and the optimal supply chain relation between steel enterprises and iron ore supplier ought to be formed. Through the game analysis of Stackelberg, this dissertation constructs the industrial supply chain of international iron ore resources leader-follower alliance and analyzes the decision variable of allocation of profits in both two sides of alliance. The result proves that the alliance ralation which is established in the centralized mode by the international iron ore leader-follower will achieve the maximization of benefit for both sides.
(5) The optimization of allocation of imported iron ore resource from all over the globe.
At home, based on the sustainable development of iron ore resource, this dissertation indicates that the annual optimal exploitation quantity by domestic iron ore manufacturer should be controlled and the strategic reserves for iron ore resource at national level should be established. On that basis, we should optimize the allocation of the imported quantity of iron ore resource across the globe, and throw away the over reliance on individual international iron ore organization, as well as form the optimal supply chain of domestic iron ore resource supply in order to meet the need of the development of domestic steel industry.
本文系统吸收了产业经济理论、企业竞争理论、制度经济学、博弈理论等相关领域的研究成果,采用定性分析和定量分析相结合,规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法,针对我国钢铁工业发展中铁矿资源约束及其供给问题做以探讨,试图对以下两个问题进行了较为系统的研究：(1)从产业链出发,论证了我国钢铁工业发展中铁矿资源约束的问题。(2)从产业供应链出发,揭示了我国实施资源产业发展,钢铁工业实施产业链整合,优化供应链战略,实现全球铁矿资源的优化配置。围绕这两大问题,论文的研究工作和内容主要体现在以下几个方面：
(1)钢铁工业资源约束的原因和机理研究
在钢铁产业链条中,我国铁矿资源在自然条件上从生产数量和质量上都不能满足钢铁工业发展的需求,在采矿、冶炼、加工三个钢铁产业环节中,采矿环节的资本和技术的投入完全落后于其它两个环节,在钢铁工业发展中是滞后的。我国铁矿资源生产一直以钢铁工业的附庸存在,所以铁矿资源状况是钢铁工业整个产业链条中最薄弱的,是钢铁工业可持续发展的制约环节。
(2)国际铁矿石市场产业组织的博弈分析
从全球角度,对国际铁矿资源企业的产业组织特点做以经济分析,通过对他们高度寡头垄断的市场格局、铁矿石交易制度的形成、交易价格的谈判机制、他们之间的联盟博弈、铁矿石供方和需方的博弈等角度分析,国际铁矿业的市场高度垄断格局由于全球高质铁矿资源的供不应求而将在一段时间内继续存在。
(3)我国钢铁资源产业的产业价值链现状剖析
应用产业链理论,分别从空间链、企业链、供需链、价值链、物流链等五维角度对我国钢铁工业及铁矿资源产业的现状进行了深入分析,进一步得出制约我国钢铁工业发展的根本原因、我国钢铁产业链严重失衡,钢铁产业价值链不合理等结论,为后续研究打下铺垫。
(4)钢铁工业的产业链整合及产业供应链的组织模式
面临国际国内铁矿资源的现状,提出我国国内铁矿资源产业尽快发展壮大,实行大资源重组的发展思路；针对钢铁产业链结构失衡,提出国内钢铁企业必须进行产业调整、企业重组与产业链整合提高产业的集中度,在国内外通过投资、控股、股权并购等方式对产业链上下游关键环节的企业实施整合,以构筑通畅、稳定和完整的产业供应链模式,钢铁企业与铁矿石供应商应形成最优的供应链关系,共同应对易变的市场,以解决铁矿资源供应约束问题和整个产业链的协调发展；通过Stackelberg博弈分析,构建国际铁矿资源主从联盟的产业供应链,对联盟双方之间利润分配的决策变量进行分析,结果也证明,国际铁矿石主从方建立集中模式下的联盟关系,可使双方的利益最大化。
(5)铁矿资源的全球进口优化配置
基于我国国内铁矿资源可持续发展的目标做战略规划,既控制国内铁矿石生产企业每年的最优开采量,又在国家层面上建立铁矿资源战略储备,在此基础上,实行全球进口铁矿资源进口量的最优配置,摆脱对个别国际铁矿企业的过度依赖,形成我国铁矿石资源供应的最优供应链,解决国内钢铁工业发展之所需；并就建立我国铁矿资源供应保障体系提出战略措施。
China is the largest steel producer and consumer in the world, but it is still the one with few iron ore resource. Due to the extraordinary development of steel industry over the past decade, the situation of depending upon overseas supply of iron ore is becoming more and more serious. Within the six years from 2003 to 2008, the international benchmark price of iron ore rose accumulatively by up to 270.52%. The soaring price of iron ore not only puts huge cost pressure on the iron and steel enterprises in China, but also casts a thick shadow on their future healthy development. For such a developing country like China, the acceleration of industrialization process needs iron and steel industry to undertake an irreplaceable task, while the latter demands for a long-term iron ore deposit supply. Therefore, it is urgent to develop a strategy aimed at stable supply of iron ore resource, and this will be a great strategic project which is crucial to the survival and sustainable development of iron and steel industry.
Assimilating some research findings such as theory of industrial organization, theory of enterprise competitiveness, institutional economics, theory of games and other theories in related areas, this dissertation investigates the supply of iron ore resource and its constraint on the development of iron and steel industry in China, in the methods of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis as well as combining normative analysis with empirical analysis, attempting to investigate systemically on the following two issues:(1) From the point of view of industrial chain, this dissertation demonstrates the constraint by iron ore resource supply on the development of iron and steel industry in China. (2) From the point of view of industrial supply chain, this dissertation reveals that our country, on the one hand, implements the development of resource industry, on the other hand, integrates the industrial chain in the iron and steel industry and optimizes the strategy of supply chain, so that global optimization of allocation of iron ore resource can be achieved. Concerning these two issues, the research and content of this dissertation are illustrated as following:
(1) The research on the reason and mechanism of constraint on the iron and steel industry by resources.
In the chain of iron and steel industry, the iron ore resource in our country can not meet the needs of iron and steel industry in either quantity or quality for their natural property. Among three steel industrial links of mining, smelting, and machining, the investment of capital and technology in the mining link has trailed seriously behind the other two links, and it still remain stagnant in the development of steel industry. In our country, the production of iron ore deposit has been the appendage of steel industry for a long time, therefore the iron ore deposit supply is the weakest link in the whole chain of steel industry, as well as the bottleneck in the sustainable development of steel industry.
(2) The game analysis of industrial organization in the international iron ore market.
From the global point of view, this dissertation analyzes the characteristics of industrial organization of international iron ore enterprises. These analyses are made respectively from the aspects of market structure formed by their extreme oligarch monopoly, the formation of trade system of iron ore, the negotiating mechanism of trade price, the allied game theory existed among them, and the game theory between the suppliers and buyers of iron ore. This structure will exist for a time for lack of good quality iron ore supply around the globe.
(3) The anatomy on the actual industrial value chain of steel resource industry in our country.
Applying the theory of industrial chain, this dissertation penetrates into actual steel industrial and steel resource industry in our country from five-dimensional angles of spatial chain, enterprise chain, supply chain, value chain, and logistics chain. Then the underlying reason for constraint on the development of steel industry in our country can be educed. In addition, conclusions that steel industrial chain is severely unbalanced and that steel industrial value chain is unreasonable can be drawn, which will lay the foundation for further research.
(4) The integration of industrial chain in steel industry and the structure mode of industrial supply chain.
Faced with the situation of iron ore resource at home and abroad, this dissertation puts forward the thought of developing domestic iron ore resource industry as soon as possible and reorganizing main resources. Concerning the shortage of steel resource, this dissertation concludes that domestic steel enterprises should enhance industrial centralization through industrial restructuring, reshuffle of enterprises and integration of industrial chain. It also points out that those enterprises which are the key links of upstream and downstream in the industrial chain should be integrated, in the manner of investment, stock controlling and equity merger at home and abroad. To solve the problem of iron ore supply constraint, a smooth, stable and complete mode of industrial chain should be constructed, and the optimal supply chain relation between steel enterprises and iron ore supplier ought to be formed. Through the game analysis of Stackelberg, this dissertation constructs the industrial supply chain of international iron ore resources leader-follower alliance and analyzes the decision variable of allocation of profits in both two sides of alliance. The result proves that the alliance ralation which is established in the centralized mode by the international iron ore leader-follower will achieve the maximization of benefit for both sides.
(5) The optimization of allocation of imported iron ore resource from all over the globe.
At home, based on the sustainable development of iron ore resource, this dissertation indicates that the annual optimal exploitation quantity by domestic iron ore manufacturer should be controlled and the strategic reserves for iron ore resource at national level should be established. On that basis, we should optimize the allocation of the imported quantity of iron ore resource across the globe, and throw away the over reliance on individual international iron ore organization, as well as form the optimal supply chain of domestic iron ore resource supply in order to meet the need of the development of domestic steel industry.
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