农村居民消费结构研究
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摘要
消费结构既是经济结构的重要组成部分,也是消费领域的核心问题;它是衡量一个国家社会经济状况是否良性循环的关键,也是反映居民生活质量变化的重要指标之一。所以,消费结构的研究,特别是农村居民消费结构的研究,对推进社会主义新农村建设,实现全面小康社会具有重要意义。本文以马克思主义消费经济理论为指导,以吉林省农村居民消费结构为依托,理论与实践相结合,对吉林省农村居民消费结构问题进行多维分析,构建了农村居民消费结构的战略对策体系。首先,阐述消费结构基本理论,归纳梳理马克思主义消费结构理论;借鉴西方经济学家的消费结构思想与研究方法;重点分析消费结构与经济增长的辩证关系。其次,对吉林省农村居民消费结构进行全面透视,采用聚类分析方法进行阶段划分,分析其演进过程和特点;通过ELES模型对吉林省城乡居民、吉林省各市县农村居民以及吉林省农村居民与全国农村居民消费结构进行比较分析;并在此基础上探求目前吉林省农村居民消费结构存在的问题及制约因素。最后,采用回归预测法对吉林省农村居民消费结构的未来发展趋势进行预测,并根据实际提出优化吉林省农村居民消费结构的措施建议。
Consumption structure is the important component of economic structure and content of consumption economy. A certain consumption structure is the reflection of consumption content, level, quality and the satisfied condition of people consumption demand. At the same time, the consumption structure also is the reflection of social product goal realization degree, each economic policy correct or not, and correct degree. Therefore, the analysis of consumption structure is very important regarding understood the consumer behavior, studied industrial structure change as well as the society consumption level, tendency and the trend of economic development. Since the reform and open, our countryside areas visage has had the huge changes. Countryside people’s income level and consumption level enhances unceasingly, remarkable improvement of life quality, Escalation of consumption structure. But, along with the advancement of economic system reform and marketization process, many factors, like income, price, industrial structure, system, hinder countryside inhabitant consumption structure to develop to the reasonable direction. The disparity is big to compare with the cities inhabitants. At present, it is crucial phase to establish comprehensive well-off society, the countryside inhabitant amount is more than 60% in the national population, is huge expense community. The countryside inhabitant consumption structure is whether reasonable, whether the consumption level promoted, relates our country to realize directly constructs comprehensive well-off society. The Marxism and west consumption economic theories and methods are used in this article. The consumption structure as a breakthrough point, and take the Jilin Province countryside inhabitants as backing, in the inner link from the consumption structure and the economy grows to study the countryside inhabitant consumption questions. The analysis and research of countryside inhabitant consumption structure bases on the theory with practice in Jilin Province, and establishes countryside inhabitant consumption structure with this province own characteristic, enhances consumption level, speeds up the Jilin socialism new countryside reconstruction, realizes the Jilin economy also to be good development quickly. The full text altogether divides 7 chapters, and the main opinion and content are as follows:
Chapter 1.Introduction.First, I introduce domestic and foreign backgrounds, goal, significance in this article studies. Second, carry on the analysis and commentary to the domestic and foreign related consumption structure research present situation. Finally, introduce this article studies primary content, method as well as possible innovation and deficiency.
Chapter2.Consumption structure theory explanation.The consumption structure and countryside inhabitant's category limits the research as breakthrough point in this article, has analyzed the consumption structure type, according to consumer daily life in actual expense disbursement different aspect or expense specific form, may divide into food, clothing, housing, use, transportation and so on consumption structures; from meets the expense demand in the different level, may divide into the living, enjoy and development three levels, and divides correspondingly the consumption structure into living, enjoy and development three kinds of structure; the different content of consumer goods or consumption structure provided by consumer goods, may divide into the material consumption, the service consumption and the spiritual consumption; from the consumption structure measurement criterion, may divide into the material consumption structure and the value consumption structure; From the consumption scale or the scope, may divide into the macroscopic consumption structure and the microscopic consumption structure. Next, analyze the consumption structure influence factors. Influence consumption structure factors many and varied. In this article, the key analysis is about interior various factors of society reproduction system, outside various factors of society reproduction system and consumption itself to the consumption structure influence. Finally, focus on dialectical relation between consumption structure and economic grow as well as consumption structure and human's all-round development. This article believed that, economic growth and consumption structure has close correlation, economic growth is the foundation which the consumption structure promotes, the consumption structure promotion is the strong power which the economy grows.
Chapter 3 .Theoretical basis of countryside inhabitant consumption structure research.In his work, although did not have the useful special chapter great length elaboration consumption question, Marx had broad and profound economic thought, and induced it to dispersive different works. His comprehensive and profound consumption economic thought and theory is obvious. In this article, Marx, Engels, Lenin and Stalin consumption structure theory are collected and reorganized; the consumption structure thought and policy of three generation leaders of the Chinese Communist Party are elaborated. At the same time, the consumption structure theory and method referring to western economists, the solid theoretical foundation is established for further system analysis of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure questions.
Chapter4.The actual situation inspection of countryside inhabitanconsumption structure in Jilin Province.The actual situation inspection of countryside inhabitant consumption structure in Jilin Province carries on from vertical direction. Firstly the stage of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure divided by the cluster analysis method since reform and open. First stage is 1983-1994 year; second stage is 1995– 2004 year; third stage is after 2005; secondly analyzed the Jilin Province countryside inhabitant eight consumption structure evolution trends and the proportion change tendency; finally, analyzed the characteristic of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure since reform and open. The analysis believed, since reform and open, Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure has improved distinctly, its performance: the Engel's coefficients decreased year by year; significantly improved in diet; the housing consumption increased unceasingly, the reversed changes tendency presented with food consumption; the clothing consumption disbursement increases, the design is diverse and the proportion decreases; the family durable consumption categories increase, the scale enhance; the transportation and communication consumption disbursement increase, the equipment improves; the culture and education entertainment necessities and the service consumption growth is rapid; the medical health care consumption receives concern.
Chapter 5.The comparative analysis of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure applied by ELES model.The analysis of Jilin countryside inhabitant consumption structure carries on from horizontal direction through establishing the ELES model in this chapter. First, the comparative analysis is between city and countryside inhabitant consumption structure in Jilin Province. Through the analysis of Jilin Province city and countryside inhabitant average consumption propensity for APC and the boundary consumption propensity for MPC, this article believes that, Jilin Province city and countryside inhabitant living standard and the consumption structure enhance unceasingly. At the same time, the countryside inhabitant average consumption propensity for APC and the boundary consumption propensity for MPC is lower than the cities inhabitant, indicates the countryside inhabitant consumption level is lower than the cities inhabitant. Through the analysis of each kind of consumption boundary consumption tendency, in Jilin Province city and countryside inhabitant, conclude that the countryside inhabitant expense more income for food, transportation, communication, culture, education, entertainment and medical health care. At the same time, it reflects the countryside inhabitant consumption structure changes, on the other hand, also reflects that the countryside public infrastructure is insufficient, the very wide difference distance has compared with the cities inhabitant. Comparing the basic demand of expenses, in Jilin Province city and countryside inhabitant, this article believed that, the basic demand disbursement of food and living in Jilin Province countryside inhabitant is much higher than the cities inhabitant. Therefore, at present the countryside inhabitant expense is still the basic life support primarily, as a whole still was lower than the cities inhabitant consumption level. Through the analysis of income elasticity of Jilin Province city and countryside inhabitant demand, this article believed, the income elasticity of demand of Jilin Province city and countryside inhabitant culture and education entertainment expenses is higher than others. It is proved completely that the city and countryside inhabitant started to expend income quietly in the field of spiritual and cultural consumption besides food, clothing and housing. Next, the comparative analysis of Jilin Province in various cities, counties and countryside inhabitant consumption structure indicated that consumption structure is not balanced, in Jilin Province various cities and counties, also has the big disparity. Finally, the comparative analysis of average level carries on countryside inhabitant consumption structure between Jilin Province and nation. See the results, discover the insufficiency, and provide the basis in order to promote the specific measures of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure.
Chapter6.The question is about Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure, and its analysis.First, the problems of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure are analyzed, and main performance: the overall expense increases, the life expense disbursement is somewhat low; the Engel's coefficient is higher, expenses level is lower; the grain food intake is higher, the great quality protein food intake is lower; the living space expands, the inside and outside environment quality is somewhat lower; the living expense is higher, the development and enjoyment expense is lower. Next, the analysis is about the factors that restrict Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure promotion. This article believed that causes Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure existence the question reason, first, the national policy relatively lags, and causes the consumption structure promotion to be slow; second, the countryside inhabitant income grows slowly that causes the consumers buying power is insufficient and restrict consumption structure promotion; third, the countryside social security system is imperfect and the expected disbursement increases unceasingly affect the consumption structure promotion; forth, the countryside expense environment is not good that restricts scale expansion and structure promotion of consumption demand; fifth, countryside inhabitant own quality is low, and the old-fashion concept and custom of consumption restrict consumption structure promotion.
Chapter 7.The future trend prediction and countermeasure suggestion of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure.First, the prediction is the future development trend of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure by the regression method. 1st, the prediction is each expense disbursement tendency of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant in the future; 2nd, the prediction is expense structure of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant in the future; 3rd, the efficiency of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure reckon by DEA model. the food, clothing, living and so on the basic living of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant expense proportion unceasingly increase, the development and enjoyment expense proportion greatly enhance, the consumption structure unceasingly will optimize. Next, according to the scientific development view and actual situation, countermeasures and suggestions optimizing Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure and promoting economy steady quick development are proposed. 1st, the macroeconomic regulation and control should be enhancement, and efforts of the countryside expense policy adjustment should be enlarged, all that provide the policy support for the consumption structure promotion; 2nd, the Jilin characteristic economy should be developed, farmers’income can be increased by many kinds of ways, all that provide the power support for the consumption structure promotion; 3rd, the perfect countryside social security system solves the farmers extra worries and provides the system guarantee for the consumption structure promotion; 4th, the improved expense environment provides environment guarantee for consumption structure transformation and optimization; 5th, the improved quality and conception transformation provide good subjective condition for consumption structure promotion.
Consumption structure is the important component of economic structure and content of consumption economy. A certain consumption structure is the reflection of consumption content, level, quality and the satisfied condition of people consumption demand. At the same time, the consumption structure also is the reflection of social product goal realization degree, each economic policy correct or not, and correct degree. Therefore, the analysis of consumption structure is very important regarding understood the consumer behavior, studied industrial structure change as well as the society consumption level, tendency and the trend of economic development. Since the reform and open, our countryside areas visage has had the huge changes. Countryside people’s income level and consumption level enhances unceasingly, remarkable improvement of life quality, Escalation of consumption structure. But, along with the advancement of economic system reform and marketization process, many factors, like income, price, industrial structure, system, hinder countryside inhabitant consumption structure to develop to the reasonable direction. The disparity is big to compare with the cities inhabitants. At present, it is crucial phase to establish comprehensive well-off society, the countryside inhabitant amount is more than 60% in the national population, is huge expense community. The countryside inhabitant consumption structure is whether reasonable, whether the consumption level promoted, relates our country to realize directly constructs comprehensive well-off society. The Marxism and west consumption economic theories and methods are used in this article. The consumption structure as a breakthrough point, and take the Jilin Province countryside inhabitants as backing, in the inner link from the consumption structure and the economy grows to study the countryside inhabitant consumption questions. The analysis and research of countryside inhabitant consumption structure bases on the theory with practice in Jilin Province, and establishes countryside inhabitant consumption structure with this province own characteristic, enhances consumption level, speeds up the Jilin socialism new countryside reconstruction, realizes the Jilin economy also to be good development quickly. The full text altogether divides 7 chapters, and the main opinion and content are as follows:
Chapter 1.Introduction.First, I introduce domestic and foreign backgrounds, goal, significance in this article studies. Second, carry on the analysis and commentary to the domestic and foreign related consumption structure research present situation. Finally, introduce this article studies primary content, method as well as possible innovation and deficiency.
Chapter2.Consumption structure theory explanation.The consumption structure and countryside inhabitant's category limits the research as breakthrough point in this article, has analyzed the consumption structure type, according to consumer daily life in actual expense disbursement different aspect or expense specific form, may divide into food, clothing, housing, use, transportation and so on consumption structures; from meets the expense demand in the different level, may divide into the living, enjoy and development three levels, and divides correspondingly the consumption structure into living, enjoy and development three kinds of structure; the different content of consumer goods or consumption structure provided by consumer goods, may divide into the material consumption, the service consumption and the spiritual consumption; from the consumption structure measurement criterion, may divide into the material consumption structure and the value consumption structure; From the consumption scale or the scope, may divide into the macroscopic consumption structure and the microscopic consumption structure. Next, analyze the consumption structure influence factors. Influence consumption structure factors many and varied. In this article, the key analysis is about interior various factors of society reproduction system, outside various factors of society reproduction system and consumption itself to the consumption structure influence. Finally, focus on dialectical relation between consumption structure and economic grow as well as consumption structure and human's all-round development. This article believed that, economic growth and consumption structure has close correlation, economic growth is the foundation which the consumption structure promotes, the consumption structure promotion is the strong power which the economy grows.
Chapter 3 .Theoretical basis of countryside inhabitant consumption structure research.In his work, although did not have the useful special chapter great length elaboration consumption question, Marx had broad and profound economic thought, and induced it to dispersive different works. His comprehensive and profound consumption economic thought and theory is obvious. In this article, Marx, Engels, Lenin and Stalin consumption structure theory are collected and reorganized; the consumption structure thought and policy of three generation leaders of the Chinese Communist Party are elaborated. At the same time, the consumption structure theory and method referring to western economists, the solid theoretical foundation is established for further system analysis of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure questions.
Chapter4.The actual situation inspection of countryside inhabitanconsumption structure in Jilin Province.The actual situation inspection of countryside inhabitant consumption structure in Jilin Province carries on from vertical direction. Firstly the stage of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure divided by the cluster analysis method since reform and open. First stage is 1983-1994 year; second stage is 1995– 2004 year; third stage is after 2005; secondly analyzed the Jilin Province countryside inhabitant eight consumption structure evolution trends and the proportion change tendency; finally, analyzed the characteristic of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure since reform and open. The analysis believed, since reform and open, Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure has improved distinctly, its performance: the Engel's coefficients decreased year by year; significantly improved in diet; the housing consumption increased unceasingly, the reversed changes tendency presented with food consumption; the clothing consumption disbursement increases, the design is diverse and the proportion decreases; the family durable consumption categories increase, the scale enhance; the transportation and communication consumption disbursement increase, the equipment improves; the culture and education entertainment necessities and the service consumption growth is rapid; the medical health care consumption receives concern.
Chapter 5.The comparative analysis of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure applied by ELES model.The analysis of Jilin countryside inhabitant consumption structure carries on from horizontal direction through establishing the ELES model in this chapter. First, the comparative analysis is between city and countryside inhabitant consumption structure in Jilin Province. Through the analysis of Jilin Province city and countryside inhabitant average consumption propensity for APC and the boundary consumption propensity for MPC, this article believes that, Jilin Province city and countryside inhabitant living standard and the consumption structure enhance unceasingly. At the same time, the countryside inhabitant average consumption propensity for APC and the boundary consumption propensity for MPC is lower than the cities inhabitant, indicates the countryside inhabitant consumption level is lower than the cities inhabitant. Through the analysis of each kind of consumption boundary consumption tendency, in Jilin Province city and countryside inhabitant, conclude that the countryside inhabitant expense more income for food, transportation, communication, culture, education, entertainment and medical health care. At the same time, it reflects the countryside inhabitant consumption structure changes, on the other hand, also reflects that the countryside public infrastructure is insufficient, the very wide difference distance has compared with the cities inhabitant. Comparing the basic demand of expenses, in Jilin Province city and countryside inhabitant, this article believed that, the basic demand disbursement of food and living in Jilin Province countryside inhabitant is much higher than the cities inhabitant. Therefore, at present the countryside inhabitant expense is still the basic life support primarily, as a whole still was lower than the cities inhabitant consumption level. Through the analysis of income elasticity of Jilin Province city and countryside inhabitant demand, this article believed, the income elasticity of demand of Jilin Province city and countryside inhabitant culture and education entertainment expenses is higher than others. It is proved completely that the city and countryside inhabitant started to expend income quietly in the field of spiritual and cultural consumption besides food, clothing and housing. Next, the comparative analysis of Jilin Province in various cities, counties and countryside inhabitant consumption structure indicated that consumption structure is not balanced, in Jilin Province various cities and counties, also has the big disparity. Finally, the comparative analysis of average level carries on countryside inhabitant consumption structure between Jilin Province and nation. See the results, discover the insufficiency, and provide the basis in order to promote the specific measures of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure.
Chapter6.The question is about Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure, and its analysis.First, the problems of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure are analyzed, and main performance: the overall expense increases, the life expense disbursement is somewhat low; the Engel's coefficient is higher, expenses level is lower; the grain food intake is higher, the great quality protein food intake is lower; the living space expands, the inside and outside environment quality is somewhat lower; the living expense is higher, the development and enjoyment expense is lower. Next, the analysis is about the factors that restrict Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure promotion. This article believed that causes Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure existence the question reason, first, the national policy relatively lags, and causes the consumption structure promotion to be slow; second, the countryside inhabitant income grows slowly that causes the consumers buying power is insufficient and restrict consumption structure promotion; third, the countryside social security system is imperfect and the expected disbursement increases unceasingly affect the consumption structure promotion; forth, the countryside expense environment is not good that restricts scale expansion and structure promotion of consumption demand; fifth, countryside inhabitant own quality is low, and the old-fashion concept and custom of consumption restrict consumption structure promotion.
Chapter 7.The future trend prediction and countermeasure suggestion of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure.First, the prediction is the future development trend of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure by the regression method. 1st, the prediction is each expense disbursement tendency of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant in the future; 2nd, the prediction is expense structure of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant in the future; 3rd, the efficiency of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure reckon by DEA model. the food, clothing, living and so on the basic living of Jilin Province countryside inhabitant expense proportion unceasingly increase, the development and enjoyment expense proportion greatly enhance, the consumption structure unceasingly will optimize. Next, according to the scientific development view and actual situation, countermeasures and suggestions optimizing Jilin Province countryside inhabitant consumption structure and promoting economy steady quick development are proposed. 1st, the macroeconomic regulation and control should be enhancement, and efforts of the countryside expense policy adjustment should be enlarged, all that provide the policy support for the consumption structure promotion; 2nd, the Jilin characteristic economy should be developed, farmers’income can be increased by many kinds of ways, all that provide the power support for the consumption structure promotion; 3rd, the perfect countryside social security system solves the farmers extra worries and provides the system guarantee for the consumption structure promotion; 4th, the improved expense environment provides environment guarantee for consumption structure transformation and optimization; 5th, the improved quality and conception transformation provide good subjective condition for consumption structure promotion.
引文
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