网络化运营条件下城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价方法研究
|
摘要
目前我国城市轨道交通进入了一个高速发展期,多数城市的轨道交通都由以前的单线运行转换成了多线、多制式运行的网络化运营局面。网络化运营条件下,城市轨道交通网络结构复杂,运营制式多元,发生突发事故后,事故影响面大,后果比较严重,这给应急指挥管理带来很大难度。因此科学合理的应急指挥管理方法,对城市轨道交通预防、减少突发事故,降低突发事故伤害具有重要意义。
进行城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价是完善应急指挥管理方法、提高应急指挥管理能力的基础。通过建立精准的评价模型,评估城市轨道交通应急指挥管理能力,发现城市轨道交通应急指挥管理过程中存在的问题,为形成高效的应急指挥管理机制提供理论依据。
本文对国内外应急能力评价的现状进行了研究,发现目前国内外的大部分学者对于应急能力评价指标都是通过总结借鉴前人的研究成果或者根据自己的主观想法进行构建的,这样得到的指标体系缺乏说服力,其合理性也有待考证。鉴于此,本文基于事故分析构建城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价指标体系,介绍了城市轨道交通诞生以来的150年间世界各国城市轨道交通系统发生的各种典型突发事故的基本情况,并对事故发生的原因、处置过程进行了深入分析,得到了城市轨道交通应急指挥管理的影响因素,以影响因素为基础初步建立了评价指标体系,得到4个一级指标(分别为人员素质、设施设备、管理机制和社会控制)和30个二级指标。
基于事故分析得到的评价指标是全面但粗糙的,为了体现模型的精准性,需要对初步得到的评价指标体系进行约简。粗糙集理论具有这种去除冗余指标,提取核心指标的功能。基于粗糙集的属性约简性,本文建立了城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价指标约简模型,基于粗糙集的信息量和属性重要性原理,建立了指标权重确定模型。选取我国城市轨道交通运行年限相对较长的7座城市的城市轨道交通(北京地铁、上海地铁、广州地铁、深圳地铁、香港地铁、重庆轻轨、成都地铁)作为研究对象,通过实地调研及专家咨询等方式给初步建立的评价指标体系进行赋值,建立了城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价信息系统,结合指标约简模型和权重确定模型,得到了21个最佳约简指标及其综合权重。最后采用线性加权法对各个指标进行加权计算,从而得到各评价对象的综合评价结果。
At present, urban rail transit in our country has entered a high-speed development period. The majority of city's urban rail transits turn to a new network operating situation under the old single-line operation transformed into a multi-line multi-format one. Under this condition, the complexity of network structure,the multiplicity of operating standard besides the big area of infection and the serious consequence after a sudden accident occurred. These bring many difficulties to the emergency command management. As a result, the scientific and reasonable method of emergency command management for prevention of urban rail transit reducing sudden accidents and decreasing accident damage is of great significance.
An emergency command management evaluation of urban rail transit is a nice precondition for establishing, perfecting and improving the ability of it. Through the establishment of accurate model and evaluation of urban rail transit emergency command management ability, finding the problems existing in the emergency command management process, repeatedly to improve and perfect, then getting a better emergency command management ability in order to reducing sudden accidents and decreasing accident damage.
Regarding to the domestic and foreign emergency capability evaluation, the author has researched in depth. However, the research result showed that nowadays most of domestic and foreign index mostly basing on the research results of predecessors or subjective thoughts. By this way, the index system certainly is lacking in convincing, its rationality is yet to be proven. In view of this, it was introduced that the basic situation of a variety of typical accidents happened in all the countries around the world since the birth of urban rail transit for150years. Based on the influencing factors which got from analyzing the cause of accident and the disposal process deeply, the preliminary evaluation index system was established including4first-level indexes (personal quality, facilities, management mechanism and social control) and30second-level indexes.
As the evaluation index based on accident analysis is comprehensive but rough, it's necessary to simplify preliminary evaluation index system for reflecting the accuracy of model. Rough set theory owns the functions that removing redundant indexes and extract the key one. Based on the simplicity attribute of rough set, the selection model of urban rail transit emergency command management evaluation index was established and based on information and impotence of attribute principle of rough set, the model which determined by index was also established. In this article7cities whose operating time of urban rail transit are longer were selected as research objects (Beijing subway, Shanghai subway,Guangzhou subway, Shenzhen subway,Hong Kong subway,Chongqing light rail,Chengdu subway). By means of assigning the preliminary established evaluation index system which got form field survey and expert consulting, the information system of urban rail transit emergency command management was established. Combining index selection model and determining weight model, we got21the most simple indexes and the comprehensive weight. So each index was calculated by using the linear weighting method, and obtained the comprehensive evaluation results finally.
进行城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价是完善应急指挥管理方法、提高应急指挥管理能力的基础。通过建立精准的评价模型,评估城市轨道交通应急指挥管理能力,发现城市轨道交通应急指挥管理过程中存在的问题,为形成高效的应急指挥管理机制提供理论依据。
本文对国内外应急能力评价的现状进行了研究,发现目前国内外的大部分学者对于应急能力评价指标都是通过总结借鉴前人的研究成果或者根据自己的主观想法进行构建的,这样得到的指标体系缺乏说服力,其合理性也有待考证。鉴于此,本文基于事故分析构建城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价指标体系,介绍了城市轨道交通诞生以来的150年间世界各国城市轨道交通系统发生的各种典型突发事故的基本情况,并对事故发生的原因、处置过程进行了深入分析,得到了城市轨道交通应急指挥管理的影响因素,以影响因素为基础初步建立了评价指标体系,得到4个一级指标(分别为人员素质、设施设备、管理机制和社会控制)和30个二级指标。
基于事故分析得到的评价指标是全面但粗糙的,为了体现模型的精准性,需要对初步得到的评价指标体系进行约简。粗糙集理论具有这种去除冗余指标,提取核心指标的功能。基于粗糙集的属性约简性,本文建立了城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价指标约简模型,基于粗糙集的信息量和属性重要性原理,建立了指标权重确定模型。选取我国城市轨道交通运行年限相对较长的7座城市的城市轨道交通(北京地铁、上海地铁、广州地铁、深圳地铁、香港地铁、重庆轻轨、成都地铁)作为研究对象,通过实地调研及专家咨询等方式给初步建立的评价指标体系进行赋值,建立了城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价信息系统,结合指标约简模型和权重确定模型,得到了21个最佳约简指标及其综合权重。最后采用线性加权法对各个指标进行加权计算,从而得到各评价对象的综合评价结果。
At present, urban rail transit in our country has entered a high-speed development period. The majority of city's urban rail transits turn to a new network operating situation under the old single-line operation transformed into a multi-line multi-format one. Under this condition, the complexity of network structure,the multiplicity of operating standard besides the big area of infection and the serious consequence after a sudden accident occurred. These bring many difficulties to the emergency command management. As a result, the scientific and reasonable method of emergency command management for prevention of urban rail transit reducing sudden accidents and decreasing accident damage is of great significance.
An emergency command management evaluation of urban rail transit is a nice precondition for establishing, perfecting and improving the ability of it. Through the establishment of accurate model and evaluation of urban rail transit emergency command management ability, finding the problems existing in the emergency command management process, repeatedly to improve and perfect, then getting a better emergency command management ability in order to reducing sudden accidents and decreasing accident damage.
Regarding to the domestic and foreign emergency capability evaluation, the author has researched in depth. However, the research result showed that nowadays most of domestic and foreign index mostly basing on the research results of predecessors or subjective thoughts. By this way, the index system certainly is lacking in convincing, its rationality is yet to be proven. In view of this, it was introduced that the basic situation of a variety of typical accidents happened in all the countries around the world since the birth of urban rail transit for150years. Based on the influencing factors which got from analyzing the cause of accident and the disposal process deeply, the preliminary evaluation index system was established including4first-level indexes (personal quality, facilities, management mechanism and social control) and30second-level indexes.
As the evaluation index based on accident analysis is comprehensive but rough, it's necessary to simplify preliminary evaluation index system for reflecting the accuracy of model. Rough set theory owns the functions that removing redundant indexes and extract the key one. Based on the simplicity attribute of rough set, the selection model of urban rail transit emergency command management evaluation index was established and based on information and impotence of attribute principle of rough set, the model which determined by index was also established. In this article7cities whose operating time of urban rail transit are longer were selected as research objects (Beijing subway, Shanghai subway,Guangzhou subway, Shenzhen subway,Hong Kong subway,Chongqing light rail,Chengdu subway). By means of assigning the preliminary established evaluation index system which got form field survey and expert consulting, the information system of urban rail transit emergency command management was established. Combining index selection model and determining weight model, we got21the most simple indexes and the comprehensive weight. So each index was calculated by using the linear weighting method, and obtained the comprehensive evaluation results finally.
引文
[1]中国城市轨道交通网http://www.ccmetro.com/newsite/readnews.aspx?id=68191
[2]邵伟中,徐瑞华.城市轨道交通网络运营协调及应急处置辅助决策技术[J].城市轨道交通研究.2008,6：17-18
[3]陈序.铁路应急能力评价及对策研究[D].北京.北京交通大学.2008
[4]童辉杰,杨雪龙.关于严重突发事件危机干预的研究评述[J].心理科学进展.2003,11(4)：382-386
[5]National Incident Management System.U.S, Department of Homeland Security,2004:7-1
[6]Incident Command System.U.S, Federal Emergency Management Ageney, Emergeney Management Institute.1998:2-10
[7]杨春生.对国内突发事件现场指挥系统的探讨[J].中国应急救援,2008,2：18
[8]沈斐敏,范自盛.道路交通突发事件应急指挥系统研究[J].中国公共安全综合版.2007,9：4546
[9]董华,张吉光.城市公共安全应急与管理[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2006：54-58
[10]王东明,王晓青.地震现场应急指挥及其标准化研究[j].自然灾害学报.2007,16(4)：143-144
[11]FEMA. State Capability Assessment for Readiness. A Report to the United States Committee on Appropriations.1997
[12]王绍玉,冯百侠.城市灾害应急与管理[M].重庆出版社.2005.19-21
[13]刘艳,赵汉章.我国城市减灾管理综合评价指标体系的研究[J].自然灾害学报.1999.8(2).61-66
[14]王绍玉.城市灾害应急管理能力建设[J],城市与减灾.2003(3).4-6
[15]邓云峰,郑双忠,刘铁民.突发灾害应急能力评估及应急特点[J].中国安全生产科学技术.2005,1(5).56-58
[16]黄典剑.突发事件应急能力评价-以城市地铁为对象[D].北京.北京科技大学.2006
[17]杨青,田依林,宋英华.基于过程管理的城市灾害应急管理综合能力评价体系研究[J].中国行政管理.2007(3).103-106
[18]徐静珍,郝春新.城市居民灾害应急反应能力的研究[J].城市与灾害.2003(5).18-20
[19]冯志泽,陈惠云.城市房屋抗震能力综合评定[J].华北地震科学.2004.22(4).34-37
[20]吴宗之,黄典剑.基于模糊集值理论的城市应急避难所应急适应能力评价方法研究.[J].安全与环境学报.2005.5(6).100-103
[21]陈伟,曾光.洪灾地区县级疾病预防控制机构救灾防病应急能力的综合评价[J].中华流 行病医学杂志.2006.27(2).112-116
[22]丘宁芳.煤矿重大事故应急能力评估研究[D].西安.西安科技大学.2007
[23]Rank R D, Charnes A, Cooper W.W. Some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis. Management Seienee,1984,30:1078-1092
[24]Saaty T.L.The Analytic Hierarchy Process.NewYork:McGraw-Hill,1980,75-109
[25]Pawlak Z. Rough Sets. International Journal of Information and Computer Science,1982,11:341-356
[26]Chankong V,Haimes Y Y.Multiple Objective Decision Making:Theory and Methodology.New York:Elsevier 1983.98-102
[27]Jackson M C,Keys P.Toward a system of system methodologies. Journal of Operational Research Society,1984,35:473-48
[28]Levine P,Pomerol J C.PRIAM,an interactive Program for Choosing among Multiple Attribute Alternatives. European Journal of operations Research.1986,25(2):272-280
[29]水本雅晴.模糊数学及其应用[M].北京：科学出版社,1988.76-96
[30]L.B.Booker, D.E.Goldberg and J.H.Holland. Classifier System and Genetic Algorithms. Artificial Intelligence,1989,40:1-3
[31]White Ⅲ C.C.A survey on the Integration of Decision Analysis and Expert Systems for Decision Support.IEEE Transactions on SMC,1990,20(2):358-364
[32]Wang M.J.J,etal.Fuzzy Set Evaluation of Inspection Performance.International Journal of Man-Machine Studies,1991,35(4):587-596
[33]Grabowski,M.R.& Wallace,W.A. An expert system for maritime pilots:Its design and assessment using gaming.Management Science,3(12):1506-1520
[34]Slowinski R.Rough set approach to decision analysis.AI Expert,March 1995,19-25
[35]Dagli C,Schierholt K.Stock Market Prediction Using Different Neural Network Classification Architectures,IEEE/IAFE 1996 Conference On Computational Intelligence For Financial Engineering,1996.72-78
[36]Sorkin R.,West R.Robinson D.Group performance depends on the majority rule.Psychological Science,1998,9(6):456-463
[37]Pontil M,Rifkin R, Eveniou T. From regression to classification in support vector machines,Proceedings ESANN.Brussels D Facto,1999.225-230
[38]Fritz S and Hosemann D.Restructuring the Credit Process:Behavior Scoring for Deutsche Bank, s German Corporates.International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting. Finance&management.2000.9:9-21
[39]邓聚龙.灰色控制系统[M].北京：科学出版社,1993.46-217
[40]陈挺.决策分析[M].北京：科学出版社,1987.79-89
[41]王铮.谈建立评估指标体系的综合回归法[J].教学与管理,1988(3)：76-78
[42]汪应洛.系统工程及应用[M].北京：科学出版社,1990.87-93
[43]梁樑等.一种多层次多指标体系综合评判的新方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1991,11(5)：5-8
[44]郭仲伟等.宏观质量评估的理论与方法.企业发展与系统工程[M],北京：中国科学技术出版社,1992.147-153
[45]王宗军,冯珊.我国计划单列城市整体发展水平的多目标多层次模糊综合评价研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,1993,15(8)：29-40
[46]郭亚军.一类多层次大系统的递阶综合评价方法[J].管理工程学报,1994,8(1)：8-12
[47]苏为华.论统计指标体系的构造方法[J].统计研究,1995(2)：87-90
[48]魏巍贤等.企业信用等级综合评价方法及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998(2)：99-102
[49]翟忠和.科技人员科研水平评估的研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1999(11)：74-77
[50]苏为华.多指标综合评价理论与方法问题研究[D].厦门.厦门大学,2000
[51]秦寿康等.综合评价原理与应用[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2003.78-99
[52]尚卫平.多指标综合评价方法的优选[J].南京经济学院学报,2003(2)：50-52
[53]李美娟,陈国宏,陈衍泰,蔡彬清.基于粗糙集的组合评价方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2005,13：128-131
[54]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.86-109
[55]王富忠,沈祖志,姜巍,余福茂.基于AHP和粗糙集的二阶段评价方法研究[J].浙江科技学院学报,2007,19(4)：293-295
[56]陈洪涛,周德群,黄国良.基于粗糙集理论的企业效绩评价指标属性约简[J].计算机应用研究,2007,24(12)：109-111
[57]于庭安.我国城市地铁突发事件应急体系建设的研究[D].长沙.中南大学,2008
[58]陈序.铁路应急能力评价及对策研究[D].北京.北京交通大学.2008
[59]王如路.上海轨道交通形成网络化运营的特点及对策初探[J].地下工程与隧道.2007,1：6-8
[60]毕湘利.从网络化运营角度看当前城市轨道交通应关注的问题[J].地下工程与隧道.2010,4：8-10
[61]邵伟中,吴强.上海城市轨道交通网络化运营特征分析[J].城市轨道交通研究.2009,2：1-3
[62]张标.天津地铁网络化运营管理的探索和思考[J].铁路工程造价管理.2010,09：51-52
[63]迟娜娜.城市灾害应急能力评价指标体系研究[D].北京.首都经济贸易大学,2006
[64]ZHENG Shuang-zhong, DENGYun-feng, JIANGTian-han. Capability assessment system for urban emergency incident readiness and it's application. Journal of Safety Science and Technology. Vol.2,No.5:20-23
[65]张铭,徐瑞华,李献忠.城市轨道交通应急救援能力的评价[J].都市快轨交通.2007,20：30-32
[66]孙彩红.基于网络化的地铁应急资源配置优化方法研究[D].北京.北京交通大学,2010
[67]交通运输部道路运输司.国内外城市轨道交通事故案例评析[M].北京：人民交通出版社.2011
[68]王国胤,姚一豫,于洪.粗糙集理论与应用研究综述[J].计算机学报.2007,7：1229-1240
[69]郝春亮,孙雨,徐从富,张作衡,宋国玺.粗糙集理论与方法在地质研究中的应用[J].地质与勘探.2011,03：483-485
[70]Liu Q. A Model of Topological Reasoning Expert System With Application To an Expert System for Computer-Aided Diagnosis and Treament Acupuncture and Moxibustion[C]//The Proceedings of 2nd IAST ED.Hawall,USA:[s.n.],1990
[71]曾黄麟.粗糙集理论及其应用[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,1998
[72]丁军,高学东.一种信息系统的快速属性约简算法[J].计算机工程与应用.2007,14：173-175
[73]郑学敏.一种基于粗糙集理论的多指标综合评价方法[J].统计与决策.2010,5：37-38
[74]纪军,吴根秀,李玮.基于包含程度的属性重要性定义[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版).2009,6：656-658
[75]孙继红,杨晓江.应用粗糙集理论对一级学科整体水平评估结果的分析[J].高教发展与评估.2008,1：76-78
[76]Z.Pawlak. Rough sets:theoretical aspects of reasoning about data[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1991:66-90
[77]Z.Pawlak. Rough Sets. International Journal of Computer and Information Science,1982(11):341～356
[78]丁雷,车彦巍.粗糙集方法在优化煤炭企业信息化评价指标体系中的应用[J].中国煤炭,2008,34(1)：35-36
[79]营利荣.面向不确定性决策的杂合粗糙集方法及其应用[J].北京：科学出版社,2008,16-19,29-30
[80]Huang Guangming, Zhang Wei. Research on Comprehensive Measurement Method Based on Rough Set. Computer Engineering and Applications.2004,2:36-39
[81]李远远.基于粗糙集的指标体系构建及综合评价方法研究[D].武汉.武汉理工大学,2009
[82]曹秀英,梁静国.基于粗集理论的属性权重确定方法.中国管理科学,2002,10(5)：98-100
[83]李美娟,陈国宏,陈衍泰,蔡彬清.基于粗糙集的组合评价方法研究.中国管理科学,2005(10)：128-131
[2]邵伟中,徐瑞华.城市轨道交通网络运营协调及应急处置辅助决策技术[J].城市轨道交通研究.2008,6：17-18
[3]陈序.铁路应急能力评价及对策研究[D].北京.北京交通大学.2008
[4]童辉杰,杨雪龙.关于严重突发事件危机干预的研究评述[J].心理科学进展.2003,11(4)：382-386
[5]National Incident Management System.U.S, Department of Homeland Security,2004:7-1
[6]Incident Command System.U.S, Federal Emergency Management Ageney, Emergeney Management Institute.1998:2-10
[7]杨春生.对国内突发事件现场指挥系统的探讨[J].中国应急救援,2008,2：18
[8]沈斐敏,范自盛.道路交通突发事件应急指挥系统研究[J].中国公共安全综合版.2007,9：4546
[9]董华,张吉光.城市公共安全应急与管理[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2006：54-58
[10]王东明,王晓青.地震现场应急指挥及其标准化研究[j].自然灾害学报.2007,16(4)：143-144
[11]FEMA. State Capability Assessment for Readiness. A Report to the United States Committee on Appropriations.1997
[12]王绍玉,冯百侠.城市灾害应急与管理[M].重庆出版社.2005.19-21
[13]刘艳,赵汉章.我国城市减灾管理综合评价指标体系的研究[J].自然灾害学报.1999.8(2).61-66
[14]王绍玉.城市灾害应急管理能力建设[J],城市与减灾.2003(3).4-6
[15]邓云峰,郑双忠,刘铁民.突发灾害应急能力评估及应急特点[J].中国安全生产科学技术.2005,1(5).56-58
[16]黄典剑.突发事件应急能力评价-以城市地铁为对象[D].北京.北京科技大学.2006
[17]杨青,田依林,宋英华.基于过程管理的城市灾害应急管理综合能力评价体系研究[J].中国行政管理.2007(3).103-106
[18]徐静珍,郝春新.城市居民灾害应急反应能力的研究[J].城市与灾害.2003(5).18-20
[19]冯志泽,陈惠云.城市房屋抗震能力综合评定[J].华北地震科学.2004.22(4).34-37
[20]吴宗之,黄典剑.基于模糊集值理论的城市应急避难所应急适应能力评价方法研究.[J].安全与环境学报.2005.5(6).100-103
[21]陈伟,曾光.洪灾地区县级疾病预防控制机构救灾防病应急能力的综合评价[J].中华流 行病医学杂志.2006.27(2).112-116
[22]丘宁芳.煤矿重大事故应急能力评估研究[D].西安.西安科技大学.2007
[23]Rank R D, Charnes A, Cooper W.W. Some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis. Management Seienee,1984,30:1078-1092
[24]Saaty T.L.The Analytic Hierarchy Process.NewYork:McGraw-Hill,1980,75-109
[25]Pawlak Z. Rough Sets. International Journal of Information and Computer Science,1982,11:341-356
[26]Chankong V,Haimes Y Y.Multiple Objective Decision Making:Theory and Methodology.New York:Elsevier 1983.98-102
[27]Jackson M C,Keys P.Toward a system of system methodologies. Journal of Operational Research Society,1984,35:473-48
[28]Levine P,Pomerol J C.PRIAM,an interactive Program for Choosing among Multiple Attribute Alternatives. European Journal of operations Research.1986,25(2):272-280
[29]水本雅晴.模糊数学及其应用[M].北京：科学出版社,1988.76-96
[30]L.B.Booker, D.E.Goldberg and J.H.Holland. Classifier System and Genetic Algorithms. Artificial Intelligence,1989,40:1-3
[31]White Ⅲ C.C.A survey on the Integration of Decision Analysis and Expert Systems for Decision Support.IEEE Transactions on SMC,1990,20(2):358-364
[32]Wang M.J.J,etal.Fuzzy Set Evaluation of Inspection Performance.International Journal of Man-Machine Studies,1991,35(4):587-596
[33]Grabowski,M.R.& Wallace,W.A. An expert system for maritime pilots:Its design and assessment using gaming.Management Science,3(12):1506-1520
[34]Slowinski R.Rough set approach to decision analysis.AI Expert,March 1995,19-25
[35]Dagli C,Schierholt K.Stock Market Prediction Using Different Neural Network Classification Architectures,IEEE/IAFE 1996 Conference On Computational Intelligence For Financial Engineering,1996.72-78
[36]Sorkin R.,West R.Robinson D.Group performance depends on the majority rule.Psychological Science,1998,9(6):456-463
[37]Pontil M,Rifkin R, Eveniou T. From regression to classification in support vector machines,Proceedings ESANN.Brussels D Facto,1999.225-230
[38]Fritz S and Hosemann D.Restructuring the Credit Process:Behavior Scoring for Deutsche Bank, s German Corporates.International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting. Finance&management.2000.9:9-21
[39]邓聚龙.灰色控制系统[M].北京：科学出版社,1993.46-217
[40]陈挺.决策分析[M].北京：科学出版社,1987.79-89
[41]王铮.谈建立评估指标体系的综合回归法[J].教学与管理,1988(3)：76-78
[42]汪应洛.系统工程及应用[M].北京：科学出版社,1990.87-93
[43]梁樑等.一种多层次多指标体系综合评判的新方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1991,11(5)：5-8
[44]郭仲伟等.宏观质量评估的理论与方法.企业发展与系统工程[M],北京：中国科学技术出版社,1992.147-153
[45]王宗军,冯珊.我国计划单列城市整体发展水平的多目标多层次模糊综合评价研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,1993,15(8)：29-40
[46]郭亚军.一类多层次大系统的递阶综合评价方法[J].管理工程学报,1994,8(1)：8-12
[47]苏为华.论统计指标体系的构造方法[J].统计研究,1995(2)：87-90
[48]魏巍贤等.企业信用等级综合评价方法及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998(2)：99-102
[49]翟忠和.科技人员科研水平评估的研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1999(11)：74-77
[50]苏为华.多指标综合评价理论与方法问题研究[D].厦门.厦门大学,2000
[51]秦寿康等.综合评价原理与应用[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2003.78-99
[52]尚卫平.多指标综合评价方法的优选[J].南京经济学院学报,2003(2)：50-52
[53]李美娟,陈国宏,陈衍泰,蔡彬清.基于粗糙集的组合评价方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2005,13：128-131
[54]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.86-109
[55]王富忠,沈祖志,姜巍,余福茂.基于AHP和粗糙集的二阶段评价方法研究[J].浙江科技学院学报,2007,19(4)：293-295
[56]陈洪涛,周德群,黄国良.基于粗糙集理论的企业效绩评价指标属性约简[J].计算机应用研究,2007,24(12)：109-111
[57]于庭安.我国城市地铁突发事件应急体系建设的研究[D].长沙.中南大学,2008
[58]陈序.铁路应急能力评价及对策研究[D].北京.北京交通大学.2008
[59]王如路.上海轨道交通形成网络化运营的特点及对策初探[J].地下工程与隧道.2007,1：6-8
[60]毕湘利.从网络化运营角度看当前城市轨道交通应关注的问题[J].地下工程与隧道.2010,4：8-10
[61]邵伟中,吴强.上海城市轨道交通网络化运营特征分析[J].城市轨道交通研究.2009,2：1-3
[62]张标.天津地铁网络化运营管理的探索和思考[J].铁路工程造价管理.2010,09：51-52
[63]迟娜娜.城市灾害应急能力评价指标体系研究[D].北京.首都经济贸易大学,2006
[64]ZHENG Shuang-zhong, DENGYun-feng, JIANGTian-han. Capability assessment system for urban emergency incident readiness and it's application. Journal of Safety Science and Technology. Vol.2,No.5:20-23
[65]张铭,徐瑞华,李献忠.城市轨道交通应急救援能力的评价[J].都市快轨交通.2007,20：30-32
[66]孙彩红.基于网络化的地铁应急资源配置优化方法研究[D].北京.北京交通大学,2010
[67]交通运输部道路运输司.国内外城市轨道交通事故案例评析[M].北京：人民交通出版社.2011
[68]王国胤,姚一豫,于洪.粗糙集理论与应用研究综述[J].计算机学报.2007,7：1229-1240
[69]郝春亮,孙雨,徐从富,张作衡,宋国玺.粗糙集理论与方法在地质研究中的应用[J].地质与勘探.2011,03：483-485
[70]Liu Q. A Model of Topological Reasoning Expert System With Application To an Expert System for Computer-Aided Diagnosis and Treament Acupuncture and Moxibustion[C]//The Proceedings of 2nd IAST ED.Hawall,USA:[s.n.],1990
[71]曾黄麟.粗糙集理论及其应用[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,1998
[72]丁军,高学东.一种信息系统的快速属性约简算法[J].计算机工程与应用.2007,14：173-175
[73]郑学敏.一种基于粗糙集理论的多指标综合评价方法[J].统计与决策.2010,5：37-38
[74]纪军,吴根秀,李玮.基于包含程度的属性重要性定义[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版).2009,6：656-658
[75]孙继红,杨晓江.应用粗糙集理论对一级学科整体水平评估结果的分析[J].高教发展与评估.2008,1：76-78
[76]Z.Pawlak. Rough sets:theoretical aspects of reasoning about data[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1991:66-90
[77]Z.Pawlak. Rough Sets. International Journal of Computer and Information Science,1982(11):341～356
[78]丁雷,车彦巍.粗糙集方法在优化煤炭企业信息化评价指标体系中的应用[J].中国煤炭,2008,34(1)：35-36
[79]营利荣.面向不确定性决策的杂合粗糙集方法及其应用[J].北京：科学出版社,2008,16-19,29-30
[80]Huang Guangming, Zhang Wei. Research on Comprehensive Measurement Method Based on Rough Set. Computer Engineering and Applications.2004,2:36-39
[81]李远远.基于粗糙集的指标体系构建及综合评价方法研究[D].武汉.武汉理工大学,2009
[82]曹秀英,梁静国.基于粗集理论的属性权重确定方法.中国管理科学,2002,10(5)：98-100
[83]李美娟,陈国宏,陈衍泰,蔡彬清.基于粗糙集的组合评价方法研究.中国管理科学,2005(10)：128-131