中国农产品产业内贸易的影响因素及效应研究
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摘要
20世纪60年代以来,国际贸易领域出现了一个新的现象,即绝大多数贸易在要素禀赋相似的国家之间进行,并且发生在同一产业内部,这种全新的贸易形式就是产业内贸易。一般认为,积极发展产业内贸易不仅可以降低产业结构调整成本,而且可以避免贸易条件恶化,缓解贸易摩擦,实现对外贸易可持续发展。但长期以来,学术界对产业内贸易的研究主要集中在制成品领域,直到20世纪90年代国外学者才开始把目光聚焦于农产品产业内贸易上。入世后中国农业面临贸易自由化的严峻挑战,发展农产品产业内贸易成为中国农产品对外贸易可持续发展的现实选择。中国农产品产业内贸易现状如何,其发展受制于哪些因素,它对国民经济特别是农业经济将产生什么效应?这都是值得认真探讨的课题。笔者正是基于回答这些问题选择自己的博士论文选题。
本文坚持规范分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的原则,综合运用归纳演绎分析法、比较分析法、数理统计法、计量模型分析法,重点分析了以下几方面的问题：
1.中国农产品产业内贸易规模、水平和结构的现状。本文第三章对1997-2008年中国农产品产业内贸易以及中国与主要贸易伙伴农产品产业内贸易进行了分析,研究表明：(1)中国农产品产业内贸易水平较低,12年间农产品产业内贸易指数的平均值仅为29.79%,农产品贸易方式仍以产业间贸易方式为主；按照SITC分类的四大类农产品除饮料及烟草(SITC 1)贸易模式已经实现了以产业内贸易为主的转变外,其它三大类农产品产业内贸易水平仍然很低；中国大多数品类的农产品贸易方式仍属于产业间贸易。(2)中国农产品产业内贸易以高质量的垂直型产业内贸易方式为主,各大类及各组农产品的产业内贸易结构各不相同。(3)虽然中国与各主要贸易伙伴的农产品产业内贸易规模、水平和结构存在差异,但均具有双边农产品产业内贸易规模增长快、产业内贸易水平不高、产业内贸易结构体现为高质量的垂直型产业内贸易方式为主、水平型产业内贸易发展不足的特点。
2.基于国家层面对中国农产品产业内贸易影响因素的实证研究。本文第四章通过计量模型对中国农产品产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品产业内贸易的国家层面影响因素进行了分析,研究表明：中国与贸易伙伴之间的人均收入差距在阻碍中国水平型农产品产业内贸易的发展的同时,促进了中国农产品产业内贸易和垂直型农产品产业内贸易的发展；中国与贸易伙伴之间的地理距离阻碍了中国农产品产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品产业内贸易的发展；中国与贸易伙伴之间的区域优惠贸易安排和市场规模、贸易伙伴的贸易开放度促进了中国农产品产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品产业内贸易的发展；贸易伙伴对中国的直接投资规模、中国与贸易伙伴之间的农产品贸易不平衡程度对中国农产品产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品产业内贸易均具有明显的阻碍或低估作用。
3.以农产品加工业为例对中国农产品产业内贸易产业层面影响因素的实证研究。本文第五章通过计量模型对中国农产品加工业产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品加工业产业内贸易的产业层面影响因素进行了分析,研究表明：加工农产品的产品差异、农产品加工业的外商直接投资和产业资本密集度促进了中国农产品加工业产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品加工业产业内贸易的发展；农产品加工业的规模经济阻碍了中国农产品加工业产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品加工业产业内贸易的发展。
4.中国农产品产业内贸易的效应分析。本文第六章通过计量模型研究了初级农产品产业内贸易的农业经济增长效应、食品加工业产业内贸易的技术进步效应与劳动就业效应、中国农产品产业内贸易的国民福利效应,研究表明：中国初级农产品产业内贸易能够带动中国农业GDP的增长,中国食品加工业产业内贸易对该行业技术进步具有促进作用,中国食品加工业产业内贸易的贸易调整成本较低,中国农产品产业内贸易使农产品生产者剩余和消费者剩余增加。
5.促进中国农产品产业内贸易发展的对策。针对不同因素对中国农产品产业内贸易的影响,本文第七章提出应该通过增加国民收入、实施品牌战略和科技兴农战略、推进农业企业化和农业产业化、合理引导外商直接投资、提高产业资本密集度、推进区域经济一体化进程、争取对中国更有利的农产品贸易环境、推进中国农产品物流业的发展等措施推进中国农产品产业内贸易的发展。
A new phenomenon has happened since the 1960's in the field of international trade,i.e.most of the international trade takes place in the same industry between the countries who own the similar factor endowments and this newly developed trade pattern is called intra-industry trade.Generally speaking, developing intra-industry trade can not only reduce the structural cost of industry,but also avoid the trade conditions from becoming worse and relieve trade conflicts with other countries.As a result,it can help the sustainable development of foreign trade.For a long period of time,the study on intra-industry trade has been focused on manufactured goods and it was not until the 1990's that foreign scholars focused on the study intra-industry trade of agricultural products.China's agriculture has been faced up with the serious challenge of trade liberalization after China's entry to WTO and developing the intra-industry of agricultural products becomes the choice of sustainable development of China's agricultural products foreign trade.How about its features, influential factors and effects to our national economy and agricultural economy?These questions are worth studying in detail.The author chooses this topic as Ph.D dissertation title in order to anwser these questions.
Based on the principle of combining normative analysis with empirical analysis, qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis by using summarized and deductive methods, comparative analysis, mathematical statistics analysis, econometric model analysis, this dissertation focuses on the following aspects:
1.The current volume,level and structure of China's intra-industry trade of agricultural products.In Chapter 3, the author analyzes the intra-industry trade of agricultural products of China and that between China and its main trading partners from 1997 to 2008.The results are as follows:Firstly,the intra-industry trade level of China's agricultural products is very low and the average level during the mentioned tweleve years is only 29.79%.The main trade pattern of China's agricultural products is inter-industry trade.Except that the trade pattern of SITC 1 has been changed from inter-industry trade into intra-industry trade,the intra-industry trade level of China's other three categories is very low.Most of China's agricultural products belong to inter-industry trade.Secondly,the intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products is dominated by high-quality vertical intra-industry trade and the intra-industry structure of each category and group are very different.Thirdly,the intra-industry trade volume between China and its main trading partners has increased rapidly and the level is not high,dominated by high-quality vertical intra-industry trade with lowly horizontal intra-industry trade level although the volume,level and structure of the bilateral intra-industry trade are quite different.
2.Empirical study on factors affecting the intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products based on country level.In Chapter 4,the author analyzes the country level factors affecting the intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products by means of econometric model.The results shows that income gap per capita between China and its main trading partners improves the development of intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products while it hinders the development of horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products.The geographical distance between China and its main trading partners hinders the development of intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products. Regional preferential trade arrangements, the market size between China and its main trading partners and trade openness of China's main trading partners have improved the development of total intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products.The direct investment volume in China invested by China's main trading partners and the imbalance degree in agricultural products trade between China and its main trading partners obviously hinders the development of intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products.
3.Empirical study on factors affecting the intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products based on industry level.In Chapter 5,the author analyzes the industry level factors affecting the intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products processing industry by means of econometric model.The results shows that the product differentiation of processed agricultural products,FDI and industry capital intensity in agricultural products processing industry have improved the development of total intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products processing industry while scale economy hinders the development of intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade in China's agricultural products processing industry.
4.The study on the effects of the intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products. In Chapter 6,the author analyzes the effects of primary agricultural products' intra-industry trade on the growth of China's agricultural GDP, the technological progress and employment effects of China'food processing industry intra-industry trade and the welfare effects of intra-industry in China's agricultural products.The results show that China's primary agricultural products intra-industry trade has improved the growth of China's agricultural GDP.The intra-industry trade of China'food processing industry has improved its technological progress and decreaed its trade adjustment effects. The intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products help increase the producers'surplus and consumers'surplus.
5. The study on the countermeasures of developing the intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products. In Chapter 7,the author puts forward various kinds of proposals such as increasing national income, implementing the strategy of brand and scientific agriculture, developing the agricultural enterprises and its industrialization,utilizing FDI reasonably, developing capital intensity, quicking up the process of regional economic integration,improving the trade enviroment of China's agricultural products,promoting the logistics industry of China's agricultural products.
本文坚持规范分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的原则,综合运用归纳演绎分析法、比较分析法、数理统计法、计量模型分析法,重点分析了以下几方面的问题：
1.中国农产品产业内贸易规模、水平和结构的现状。本文第三章对1997-2008年中国农产品产业内贸易以及中国与主要贸易伙伴农产品产业内贸易进行了分析,研究表明：(1)中国农产品产业内贸易水平较低,12年间农产品产业内贸易指数的平均值仅为29.79%,农产品贸易方式仍以产业间贸易方式为主；按照SITC分类的四大类农产品除饮料及烟草(SITC 1)贸易模式已经实现了以产业内贸易为主的转变外,其它三大类农产品产业内贸易水平仍然很低；中国大多数品类的农产品贸易方式仍属于产业间贸易。(2)中国农产品产业内贸易以高质量的垂直型产业内贸易方式为主,各大类及各组农产品的产业内贸易结构各不相同。(3)虽然中国与各主要贸易伙伴的农产品产业内贸易规模、水平和结构存在差异,但均具有双边农产品产业内贸易规模增长快、产业内贸易水平不高、产业内贸易结构体现为高质量的垂直型产业内贸易方式为主、水平型产业内贸易发展不足的特点。
2.基于国家层面对中国农产品产业内贸易影响因素的实证研究。本文第四章通过计量模型对中国农产品产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品产业内贸易的国家层面影响因素进行了分析,研究表明：中国与贸易伙伴之间的人均收入差距在阻碍中国水平型农产品产业内贸易的发展的同时,促进了中国农产品产业内贸易和垂直型农产品产业内贸易的发展；中国与贸易伙伴之间的地理距离阻碍了中国农产品产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品产业内贸易的发展；中国与贸易伙伴之间的区域优惠贸易安排和市场规模、贸易伙伴的贸易开放度促进了中国农产品产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品产业内贸易的发展；贸易伙伴对中国的直接投资规模、中国与贸易伙伴之间的农产品贸易不平衡程度对中国农产品产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品产业内贸易均具有明显的阻碍或低估作用。
3.以农产品加工业为例对中国农产品产业内贸易产业层面影响因素的实证研究。本文第五章通过计量模型对中国农产品加工业产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品加工业产业内贸易的产业层面影响因素进行了分析,研究表明：加工农产品的产品差异、农产品加工业的外商直接投资和产业资本密集度促进了中国农产品加工业产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品加工业产业内贸易的发展；农产品加工业的规模经济阻碍了中国农产品加工业产业内贸易以及垂直型和水平型农产品加工业产业内贸易的发展。
4.中国农产品产业内贸易的效应分析。本文第六章通过计量模型研究了初级农产品产业内贸易的农业经济增长效应、食品加工业产业内贸易的技术进步效应与劳动就业效应、中国农产品产业内贸易的国民福利效应,研究表明：中国初级农产品产业内贸易能够带动中国农业GDP的增长,中国食品加工业产业内贸易对该行业技术进步具有促进作用,中国食品加工业产业内贸易的贸易调整成本较低,中国农产品产业内贸易使农产品生产者剩余和消费者剩余增加。
5.促进中国农产品产业内贸易发展的对策。针对不同因素对中国农产品产业内贸易的影响,本文第七章提出应该通过增加国民收入、实施品牌战略和科技兴农战略、推进农业企业化和农业产业化、合理引导外商直接投资、提高产业资本密集度、推进区域经济一体化进程、争取对中国更有利的农产品贸易环境、推进中国农产品物流业的发展等措施推进中国农产品产业内贸易的发展。
A new phenomenon has happened since the 1960's in the field of international trade,i.e.most of the international trade takes place in the same industry between the countries who own the similar factor endowments and this newly developed trade pattern is called intra-industry trade.Generally speaking, developing intra-industry trade can not only reduce the structural cost of industry,but also avoid the trade conditions from becoming worse and relieve trade conflicts with other countries.As a result,it can help the sustainable development of foreign trade.For a long period of time,the study on intra-industry trade has been focused on manufactured goods and it was not until the 1990's that foreign scholars focused on the study intra-industry trade of agricultural products.China's agriculture has been faced up with the serious challenge of trade liberalization after China's entry to WTO and developing the intra-industry of agricultural products becomes the choice of sustainable development of China's agricultural products foreign trade.How about its features, influential factors and effects to our national economy and agricultural economy?These questions are worth studying in detail.The author chooses this topic as Ph.D dissertation title in order to anwser these questions.
Based on the principle of combining normative analysis with empirical analysis, qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis by using summarized and deductive methods, comparative analysis, mathematical statistics analysis, econometric model analysis, this dissertation focuses on the following aspects:
1.The current volume,level and structure of China's intra-industry trade of agricultural products.In Chapter 3, the author analyzes the intra-industry trade of agricultural products of China and that between China and its main trading partners from 1997 to 2008.The results are as follows:Firstly,the intra-industry trade level of China's agricultural products is very low and the average level during the mentioned tweleve years is only 29.79%.The main trade pattern of China's agricultural products is inter-industry trade.Except that the trade pattern of SITC 1 has been changed from inter-industry trade into intra-industry trade,the intra-industry trade level of China's other three categories is very low.Most of China's agricultural products belong to inter-industry trade.Secondly,the intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products is dominated by high-quality vertical intra-industry trade and the intra-industry structure of each category and group are very different.Thirdly,the intra-industry trade volume between China and its main trading partners has increased rapidly and the level is not high,dominated by high-quality vertical intra-industry trade with lowly horizontal intra-industry trade level although the volume,level and structure of the bilateral intra-industry trade are quite different.
2.Empirical study on factors affecting the intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products based on country level.In Chapter 4,the author analyzes the country level factors affecting the intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products by means of econometric model.The results shows that income gap per capita between China and its main trading partners improves the development of intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products while it hinders the development of horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products.The geographical distance between China and its main trading partners hinders the development of intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products. Regional preferential trade arrangements, the market size between China and its main trading partners and trade openness of China's main trading partners have improved the development of total intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products.The direct investment volume in China invested by China's main trading partners and the imbalance degree in agricultural products trade between China and its main trading partners obviously hinders the development of intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products.
3.Empirical study on factors affecting the intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products based on industry level.In Chapter 5,the author analyzes the industry level factors affecting the intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products processing industry by means of econometric model.The results shows that the product differentiation of processed agricultural products,FDI and industry capital intensity in agricultural products processing industry have improved the development of total intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products processing industry while scale economy hinders the development of intra-industry trade,vertical intra-industry trade,horizontal intra-industry trade in China's agricultural products processing industry.
4.The study on the effects of the intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products. In Chapter 6,the author analyzes the effects of primary agricultural products' intra-industry trade on the growth of China's agricultural GDP, the technological progress and employment effects of China'food processing industry intra-industry trade and the welfare effects of intra-industry in China's agricultural products.The results show that China's primary agricultural products intra-industry trade has improved the growth of China's agricultural GDP.The intra-industry trade of China'food processing industry has improved its technological progress and decreaed its trade adjustment effects. The intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products help increase the producers'surplus and consumers'surplus.
5. The study on the countermeasures of developing the intra-industry trade of China's agricultural products. In Chapter 7,the author puts forward various kinds of proposals such as increasing national income, implementing the strategy of brand and scientific agriculture, developing the agricultural enterprises and its industrialization,utilizing FDI reasonably, developing capital intensity, quicking up the process of regional economic integration,improving the trade enviroment of China's agricultural products,promoting the logistics industry of China's agricultural products.
引文
1 Ruffin,R.J.The Nature and Significance of Intra-industry//tttp:www.dallasfed.org/research/efr/1999/html
2王鹏.中国产业内贸易的实证研究——基于产业层面和国家层面的视角,复旦大学博士学位论文,2007,9
3该数据是作者根据UN COMTRADE计算得出
4中国商务部网站(WWW.MOFCOM.GOV.CN)
5在农产品范围界定方面,多数文献(程国强,1999、2000；彭挺军,1999；卢锋,2000,2003；孙东升,2001)将其界定为：WTO农业协定定义的农产品贸易统计范围再加上水产品,即“WTO农产品+水产品”。然而,这一定义在准确反映农产品内涵上存在局限性：一是它没有包含木材、竹材等属十广义农业范畴的林产品；二是某些以农产品原料的制成品贸易中包含了农产品进口,例如纺织和服装业产品贸易包含了棉花、羊毛、皮革等农产品贸易活动。由于林产品以及这些制成品贸易中农业原料没有算进农产品贸易统计范围,因而这一因素会显著低估真实意义上的农产品规模。
6王云飞.我国与主要贸易伙伴产业内贸易的相关性分析[J].世界经济研究,2005(10)：47-55.
7中华人民共和国商务部.中国农产品出口分析报告2009.北京：中国商务出版社,2010年,1-5
8世界贸易组织.2002年世界贸易报告.北京：对外经济贸易大学出版社,2002年,22.
9同7
10 Aquino.A Intra-Industry Trade and Inter-Industry Trade Specialization as Concurrent Sources of International Trade in Manufactures.Weltwirtschaftliches Archive,1978, Vol.114(2),pp.275-296
11 Thom, R. and McDowell M. Measuring Marginal Intra-Industry Trade.Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1999,Vol.135, pp.48-61
12 Stefano Vona. On the Measurement of Intra-industry Trade: Some Further Thoughts. Review of World Economics, 1991,Vol.127,pp.678-700
13 1997-1998年东盟的成员数目为8个(印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、文莱、越南和柬埔寨),1999年后东盟成员数日为10个(新增加的成员为老挝和缅甸)。
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27此处指的数据可获得性指的是只能获得初级农产品对应的农业GDP指数,而无法获得加工农产品所对应的GDP指数。
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2王鹏.中国产业内贸易的实证研究——基于产业层面和国家层面的视角,复旦大学博士学位论文,2007,9
3该数据是作者根据UN COMTRADE计算得出
4中国商务部网站(WWW.MOFCOM.GOV.CN)
5在农产品范围界定方面,多数文献(程国强,1999、2000；彭挺军,1999；卢锋,2000,2003；孙东升,2001)将其界定为：WTO农业协定定义的农产品贸易统计范围再加上水产品,即“WTO农产品+水产品”。然而,这一定义在准确反映农产品内涵上存在局限性：一是它没有包含木材、竹材等属十广义农业范畴的林产品；二是某些以农产品原料的制成品贸易中包含了农产品进口,例如纺织和服装业产品贸易包含了棉花、羊毛、皮革等农产品贸易活动。由于林产品以及这些制成品贸易中农业原料没有算进农产品贸易统计范围,因而这一因素会显著低估真实意义上的农产品规模。
6王云飞.我国与主要贸易伙伴产业内贸易的相关性分析[J].世界经济研究,2005(10)：47-55.
7中华人民共和国商务部.中国农产品出口分析报告2009.北京：中国商务出版社,2010年,1-5
8世界贸易组织.2002年世界贸易报告.北京：对外经济贸易大学出版社,2002年,22.
9同7
10 Aquino.A Intra-Industry Trade and Inter-Industry Trade Specialization as Concurrent Sources of International Trade in Manufactures.Weltwirtschaftliches Archive,1978, Vol.114(2),pp.275-296
11 Thom, R. and McDowell M. Measuring Marginal Intra-Industry Trade.Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1999,Vol.135, pp.48-61
12 Stefano Vona. On the Measurement of Intra-industry Trade: Some Further Thoughts. Review of World Economics, 1991,Vol.127,pp.678-700
13 1997-1998年东盟的成员数目为8个(印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、文莱、越南和柬埔寨),1999年后东盟成员数日为10个(新增加的成员为老挝和缅甸)。
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27此处指的数据可获得性指的是只能获得初级农产品对应的农业GDP指数,而无法获得加工农产品所对应的GDP指数。
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