我国商品房价量波动相关性分析
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摘要
房地产业是我国的支柱产业,商品房市场的稳定直接影响到经济发展的状况。商品房市场是个特殊的市场,商品房具有与其它一般商品不同的特性。
中国商品房价格从2003年开始经历了将近六年的大涨,一般商品价格上涨会造成供给增加、需求减少的状况,而商品房市场价格上涨出现商品房供给增加同时需求也大量增加的状况;从2008年6月开始,商品房市场价格开始下跌,一般商品价格下跌会造成需求增加同时供给减少,而商品房市场情况恰恰相反,商品房价格的下跌没有造成供给数量明显的下跌,供给反而持续增加,而需求却因为价格的下跌出现了收缩状况,由此导致商品房空置面积大量提高。2009年,房价从低迷开始走向稳定并且有回升的趋势,房价的变化将直接在市场上引起巨大反应,政府调节如果不当,被压抑一年多的居住性需求将产生急剧膨胀,极有可能在市场上引起抢购和惜售的现象。
本文从商品房供需特殊性的角度分析商品房价量波动相关性的特点,首先对当前商品房市场现状进行分析,然后分析了商品房市场价量波动的相互关系,提出辨别异常波动的方法,分析了异常波动的影响,并提出稳定异常波动的对策。文章利用近十年商品房价量波动最新数据制作了商品房价量波动图,分别分析了商品房供给数量曲线、商品房需求数量曲线、价格变化曲线的特点,并针对价量波动图的特点分析了三条曲线之间的关系。从供给成本、供给数量和结构、供给调节政策、供给滞后性四个方面分析了商品房供给特殊性对房价波动的影响;从收入水平与需求结构、需求调节政策,居住性需求与投机性需求、消费方式分析了商品房需求特殊性对房价的影响;并且分析了房价对供需数量变化造成的反作用;接着根据商品房价量波动特点对未来几年商品房价格和供给数量、需求数量作出预测。提出价格对比法和空置量识别法来辨别价量异常波动,然后针对近年出现的价量异常波动产生的影响做出分析,并对商品房价量剧烈波动提出了解决方案和对策,分别从促进居住性需求,抑制投机性需求;调节供给结构,促进房地产产业结构升级;规范土地市场;整顿房地产金融市场秩序,推进房地产证券化;房地产商调整营销模式,加速资金回笼等五个方面提出了稳定商品房市场价量波动的政策与建议。
The real estate industry is a pillar industry, the stable of commercial housing market influences immediately to the economic development condition. The commercial housing market is a special market, different to the other general commodity.
Since 2003 the Chinese commercial housing price starts to rise sharply for 6 years. Generally the commodity price rise could make the demand to raise and supply reduce, while the commercial housing market when the price rise presented with the supplies to increase and demand increased massively. Starts from June, 2008, the commercial housing market price starts to fall, generally the fall of price will cause the demand to increase and the supplies to reduce, but the commercial housing market conditions will just be the opposite one, the fall of housing price has not made the quantity of supplies falling obviously, the supplies continues to increase, and demand reduced massively, the vacant enhanced massively. In 2009, the house price starts to rise, this change may cause huge response to the market, if the government improper adjusts, the demand constrained for more than a half year will inflates suddenly, has the possibility of market purchase rushes and loath to sell something.
This article based on the special of commercial housing supply and demand, to prove the relevant of housing price is connected to the number of demand and supply. In this article present with the situation of current commercial housing market, then analyses the market fluctuation against the reciprocity, and analysis the uncommon situation, then proposed with solutions. The article uses the nearest ten years commercial housing date, to manufacture the commercial housing base unit weight fluctuation chart, annoyed the commercial housing supplies quantity curve, the commercial housing demand quantity curve and the change of price curve, aimed to analyze characteristic between these three curves. Analysis the supplies particularity influences the price from the supplies cost, supplies quantity and the structure, the national supplies adjustment policy, the supplies hysteretic quality these four aspects; Analysis the demand particularity influences the price from the income level and the demand structure, the demand adjustment policy, the rigid demand and the speculative demand, the commercial way of these four aspects; And analysis how the house price reactioned to the supply and demand quantity. Then forecast the later several years about quantities and price. In view of the questions which may soon appear, proposed two methods including contrast the price and observe the vacant to differentiate exceptionally fluctuates, and proposed five solutions to solve this problem, including enhance the rigid demand, to suppress the speculative demand; adjust the supplies structure, promote real estate structure upgrading; standard land market; put real estate financial market in good order, push forward real estate bond-rization; promote the land agents to adjust their selling patterns , accelerates withdrawal funds from circulation.
中国商品房价格从2003年开始经历了将近六年的大涨,一般商品价格上涨会造成供给增加、需求减少的状况,而商品房市场价格上涨出现商品房供给增加同时需求也大量增加的状况;从2008年6月开始,商品房市场价格开始下跌,一般商品价格下跌会造成需求增加同时供给减少,而商品房市场情况恰恰相反,商品房价格的下跌没有造成供给数量明显的下跌,供给反而持续增加,而需求却因为价格的下跌出现了收缩状况,由此导致商品房空置面积大量提高。2009年,房价从低迷开始走向稳定并且有回升的趋势,房价的变化将直接在市场上引起巨大反应,政府调节如果不当,被压抑一年多的居住性需求将产生急剧膨胀,极有可能在市场上引起抢购和惜售的现象。
本文从商品房供需特殊性的角度分析商品房价量波动相关性的特点,首先对当前商品房市场现状进行分析,然后分析了商品房市场价量波动的相互关系,提出辨别异常波动的方法,分析了异常波动的影响,并提出稳定异常波动的对策。文章利用近十年商品房价量波动最新数据制作了商品房价量波动图,分别分析了商品房供给数量曲线、商品房需求数量曲线、价格变化曲线的特点,并针对价量波动图的特点分析了三条曲线之间的关系。从供给成本、供给数量和结构、供给调节政策、供给滞后性四个方面分析了商品房供给特殊性对房价波动的影响;从收入水平与需求结构、需求调节政策,居住性需求与投机性需求、消费方式分析了商品房需求特殊性对房价的影响;并且分析了房价对供需数量变化造成的反作用;接着根据商品房价量波动特点对未来几年商品房价格和供给数量、需求数量作出预测。提出价格对比法和空置量识别法来辨别价量异常波动,然后针对近年出现的价量异常波动产生的影响做出分析,并对商品房价量剧烈波动提出了解决方案和对策,分别从促进居住性需求,抑制投机性需求;调节供给结构,促进房地产产业结构升级;规范土地市场;整顿房地产金融市场秩序,推进房地产证券化;房地产商调整营销模式,加速资金回笼等五个方面提出了稳定商品房市场价量波动的政策与建议。
The real estate industry is a pillar industry, the stable of commercial housing market influences immediately to the economic development condition. The commercial housing market is a special market, different to the other general commodity.
Since 2003 the Chinese commercial housing price starts to rise sharply for 6 years. Generally the commodity price rise could make the demand to raise and supply reduce, while the commercial housing market when the price rise presented with the supplies to increase and demand increased massively. Starts from June, 2008, the commercial housing market price starts to fall, generally the fall of price will cause the demand to increase and the supplies to reduce, but the commercial housing market conditions will just be the opposite one, the fall of housing price has not made the quantity of supplies falling obviously, the supplies continues to increase, and demand reduced massively, the vacant enhanced massively. In 2009, the house price starts to rise, this change may cause huge response to the market, if the government improper adjusts, the demand constrained for more than a half year will inflates suddenly, has the possibility of market purchase rushes and loath to sell something.
This article based on the special of commercial housing supply and demand, to prove the relevant of housing price is connected to the number of demand and supply. In this article present with the situation of current commercial housing market, then analyses the market fluctuation against the reciprocity, and analysis the uncommon situation, then proposed with solutions. The article uses the nearest ten years commercial housing date, to manufacture the commercial housing base unit weight fluctuation chart, annoyed the commercial housing supplies quantity curve, the commercial housing demand quantity curve and the change of price curve, aimed to analyze characteristic between these three curves. Analysis the supplies particularity influences the price from the supplies cost, supplies quantity and the structure, the national supplies adjustment policy, the supplies hysteretic quality these four aspects; Analysis the demand particularity influences the price from the income level and the demand structure, the demand adjustment policy, the rigid demand and the speculative demand, the commercial way of these four aspects; And analysis how the house price reactioned to the supply and demand quantity. Then forecast the later several years about quantities and price. In view of the questions which may soon appear, proposed two methods including contrast the price and observe the vacant to differentiate exceptionally fluctuates, and proposed five solutions to solve this problem, including enhance the rigid demand, to suppress the speculative demand; adjust the supplies structure, promote real estate structure upgrading; standard land market; put real estate financial market in good order, push forward real estate bond-rization; promote the land agents to adjust their selling patterns , accelerates withdrawal funds from circulation.
引文
[1]杨胜刚,吴立源.住宅房地产消费的非理性泡沫.消费经济, 2007, (03).
[2]况伟大.房价与地价关系研究:模型及中国数据检验.财贸经济, 2005,(11).
[3]张弘.房地产拉动经济增长的原因及策略.黑龙江科技信息, 2008,(20) .
[4]孙晶晶.房地产价格形成机制探讨.经营管理者, 2008,(13).
[5]吕红军,姚兵.房价增长时期商品房需求模型构建.哈尔滨理工大学学报,2008,(05).
[6]张仕廉,陈玲燕.空置商品房转换为廉租房的动力机制研究.建筑经济, 2008,(08).
[7]李定安,周健波.成本和需求的变动对商品房价格影响分析.价格月刊, 2007,(11).
[8]宋勃,高波.房价与地价关系的因果检验:1998-2006.当代经济科学, 2007,(01) .
[9]开彦.促进房地产市场理性发展.城市开发, 2008,(20).
[10]田传浩.对目前房地产泡沫研究的几点评论,浙江经济, 2003,(08).
[11]吴文锋,吴冲锋,朱云.异常波动与资产定价模型.预测, 2000,(05).
[12]戴春山.房地产泡沫的成因、评估与防范.产业与科技论坛, 2008,(09).
[13]张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学,上海人民出版社, 1996.
[14]张建伟.泡沫经济的实证分析与制度分析,经济学动态, 1997,(03).
[15]彭惠.信息不对称下的羊群行为与泡沫,金融研究, 2000,(07).
[16]李维哲,曲波.地产泡沫预警指标体系与方法研究,山西财经大学学报,2002,(02).
[17]高鸿业.西方经济学.第三版.中国人民大学出版社, 2000 .
[18]谢经荣,吕萍,乔志敏.房地产经济学.中国人民大学出版社, 2002.
[19]张华.中国房地产市场中的政府行为研究.中央民族大学, 2007,(05).
[20]汪鸿涛.影响我国发达城市房地产价格走势的因素分析.城市, 2007,(05).
[21]杜重华.房价与经济的关系研究.经营管理者, 2008,(13).
[22]张伟红,高荔.我国居民收入差距的原因及对策分析.市场周刊, 2006,(07).
[23]张峰,杜娟.从多角度浅析我国房价高的原因.科技信息, 2007,(31).
[24]陈放.均衡价格—动态市场价格的形成与变化趋势,财经问题研究, 2004,(05).
[25]李晓西,虚拟经济、泡沫经济与实体经济,财贸经济, 2000,(06).
[26]李国柱,金融危机预警模型探析,统计与决策, 2006,(01).
[27]李国柱,编制城市房地产价格指数的若干问题,统计研究, 2003,(08).
[28]石莹.两种住房补贴政策的效率比较.金卡工程(经济与法), 2008,(10) .
[29]余立.论加速实施房地产证券化正当其时.经济师, 2008,(11) .
[30]刘洪玉,张宇.美国次贷危机的形成与房地产评估的畸形作用.城乡建设,2008,(11) .
[31]汪小勤,李翔迅.房地产市场供需联动调控模型探讨.中国流通经济, 2008,(05) .
[32]吴梓境,厉召龙.从供给变量因素角度分析房地产价格泡沫.学理论, 2008,(14) .
[33]高振怀.加强房地产市场有效调控的政策性思考.特区实践与理论, 2008,(01) .
[34]牟志华.我国房地产价格的非理性波动与政府对策.理论学习, 2008,(09) .
[35]徐虹.保障性住房政策的选择运用.中央财经大学学报, 2008,(06) .
[36]刘喜.浅谈中国住房政策与居民的居住水平——以1949-1980年为例.成功(教育), 2007,(10) .
[37]徐虹.我国住房需求的影响因素及发展趋势分析.兰州学刊, 2008,(10) .
[38]叶剑平.中国房地产指数的现状及趋势,中国房地产,2002,(04).
[39] Robert P.Flood and Robert J. HodrickAsset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching,Nber Working Paper#1867, 1986.
[40] Rainer Schulz and Axel Werwatz, A State Space Model for Berlin HousePrices, 2002.
[41] David H Downs, Z Nuray Guner, Gary A Patterson.Capital Distribution Policy and Information Asymmetry. A Real Estate Market Perspective, 2000.
[42] Sorin A Tuluca, F C Neil Myer, James R Webb. Dynamics of Private and Public Real Estate Markets. Journal of Real Estate, 2000.
[2]况伟大.房价与地价关系研究:模型及中国数据检验.财贸经济, 2005,(11).
[3]张弘.房地产拉动经济增长的原因及策略.黑龙江科技信息, 2008,(20) .
[4]孙晶晶.房地产价格形成机制探讨.经营管理者, 2008,(13).
[5]吕红军,姚兵.房价增长时期商品房需求模型构建.哈尔滨理工大学学报,2008,(05).
[6]张仕廉,陈玲燕.空置商品房转换为廉租房的动力机制研究.建筑经济, 2008,(08).
[7]李定安,周健波.成本和需求的变动对商品房价格影响分析.价格月刊, 2007,(11).
[8]宋勃,高波.房价与地价关系的因果检验:1998-2006.当代经济科学, 2007,(01) .
[9]开彦.促进房地产市场理性发展.城市开发, 2008,(20).
[10]田传浩.对目前房地产泡沫研究的几点评论,浙江经济, 2003,(08).
[11]吴文锋,吴冲锋,朱云.异常波动与资产定价模型.预测, 2000,(05).
[12]戴春山.房地产泡沫的成因、评估与防范.产业与科技论坛, 2008,(09).
[13]张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学,上海人民出版社, 1996.
[14]张建伟.泡沫经济的实证分析与制度分析,经济学动态, 1997,(03).
[15]彭惠.信息不对称下的羊群行为与泡沫,金融研究, 2000,(07).
[16]李维哲,曲波.地产泡沫预警指标体系与方法研究,山西财经大学学报,2002,(02).
[17]高鸿业.西方经济学.第三版.中国人民大学出版社, 2000 .
[18]谢经荣,吕萍,乔志敏.房地产经济学.中国人民大学出版社, 2002.
[19]张华.中国房地产市场中的政府行为研究.中央民族大学, 2007,(05).
[20]汪鸿涛.影响我国发达城市房地产价格走势的因素分析.城市, 2007,(05).
[21]杜重华.房价与经济的关系研究.经营管理者, 2008,(13).
[22]张伟红,高荔.我国居民收入差距的原因及对策分析.市场周刊, 2006,(07).
[23]张峰,杜娟.从多角度浅析我国房价高的原因.科技信息, 2007,(31).
[24]陈放.均衡价格—动态市场价格的形成与变化趋势,财经问题研究, 2004,(05).
[25]李晓西,虚拟经济、泡沫经济与实体经济,财贸经济, 2000,(06).
[26]李国柱,金融危机预警模型探析,统计与决策, 2006,(01).
[27]李国柱,编制城市房地产价格指数的若干问题,统计研究, 2003,(08).
[28]石莹.两种住房补贴政策的效率比较.金卡工程(经济与法), 2008,(10) .
[29]余立.论加速实施房地产证券化正当其时.经济师, 2008,(11) .
[30]刘洪玉,张宇.美国次贷危机的形成与房地产评估的畸形作用.城乡建设,2008,(11) .
[31]汪小勤,李翔迅.房地产市场供需联动调控模型探讨.中国流通经济, 2008,(05) .
[32]吴梓境,厉召龙.从供给变量因素角度分析房地产价格泡沫.学理论, 2008,(14) .
[33]高振怀.加强房地产市场有效调控的政策性思考.特区实践与理论, 2008,(01) .
[34]牟志华.我国房地产价格的非理性波动与政府对策.理论学习, 2008,(09) .
[35]徐虹.保障性住房政策的选择运用.中央财经大学学报, 2008,(06) .
[36]刘喜.浅谈中国住房政策与居民的居住水平——以1949-1980年为例.成功(教育), 2007,(10) .
[37]徐虹.我国住房需求的影响因素及发展趋势分析.兰州学刊, 2008,(10) .
[38]叶剑平.中国房地产指数的现状及趋势,中国房地产,2002,(04).
[39] Robert P.Flood and Robert J. HodrickAsset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching,Nber Working Paper#1867, 1986.
[40] Rainer Schulz and Axel Werwatz, A State Space Model for Berlin HousePrices, 2002.
[41] David H Downs, Z Nuray Guner, Gary A Patterson.Capital Distribution Policy and Information Asymmetry. A Real Estate Market Perspective, 2000.
[42] Sorin A Tuluca, F C Neil Myer, James R Webb. Dynamics of Private and Public Real Estate Markets. Journal of Real Estate, 2000.