面向中小型软件企业的项目风险管理研究
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摘要
软件项目风险管理作为软件项目管理的重要内容正受到越来越多的关注，实践证明，在软件开发过程中实施系统的风险管理已成为保证项目成功交付的重要措施。现有的软件项目风险管理理论和实践，主要针对大中型软件企业的大型复杂项目，难以直接应用于中小型软件企业，而中小型软件企业由于受资金、人员等因素的制约，抗风险能力更弱。因此，在现有理论和实践的基础上，分析中小型软件企业项目风险管理中的特点和问题，探讨适合我国中小型企业的软件项目风险管理方法具有重要意义。
本文研究了软件项目风险管理的一般性方法，其中对Boehm的理论体系、SEI的CRM体系以及Charette方法的框架体系进行了分析，比较了各自体系的优缺点。以经典的软件项目风险管理理论为基础，提出一种适合于中小型软件企业的、简洁、易用的项目风险管理方法体系。该方法分为风险识别、风险评估、风险控制三大步骤，具有实施成本较低、对操作人员的经验和技术要求不高以及流程较简单等特点。在风险识别阶段，采用TCQR模型建立了一般性项目风险驱动因子的标准集，以风险分类表为基础，给出了TBQ调查问卷。TBQ调查问卷使得对风险驱动因子的识别和客观评价项目组的管理能力具有了可操作性，也为TCQR模型的实际应用提供了保证。针对中小型软件企业的风险控制问题，进一步提出一种“收益最大化的软件项目风险优化控制”方法，该方法在风险控制过程中，通过建立一个风险优化控制模型，运用动态规划方法，实现风险控制方案的自动选择，把风险控制在可接受范围内，同时取得软件项目风险管理的最大收益。最后，把该方法应用于一个具体软件项目的风险控制，验证了该方法的有效性。
本文的研究，提供了一种可供中小型软件企业项目风险管理的方法，该方法突出了合理性、可行性和实用性，对我国企业改革和社会经济的发展有一定的促进作用。
As one of the most critical contains in software project management, riskmanagement was getting more and more concerns by software developers and projectteams. It has been testified by practice that bringing risk management into effectsystematically was becoming an important measurement to guarantee delivering theprogram successfully during the software process. The present theories and experiencesare aimed at the great and complicated project of the big software enterprises. Due to thelimited of fund, people and other elements, the power of resisting risk of the smallsoftware enterprises is weak. So it is important to analyze the feature and problems of thesoftware risk management in small enterprises, and work out a proper way for thesoftware risk management for small enterprises.
The study contents of this paper are as follow. Firstly studying and comparinggeneral theories about software risk management, including the system of Beohm, CRMmodel of SEI, Risky method; Secondly, instituting a concise method of software riskmanagement according to the characteristics of small-scale enterprises based on theclassical theories. This method includes risk identify, risk evaluate and risk control. Forthis method, the cost is cheap, processes are simple and the requirement to theexperiences and techniques of operators isn't strict; Thirdly, putting forward a method ofoptimizing software risk for the sake of max income, through setting up a model of riskcontrol, the method can automatically choose the schemes to control the risk in anacceptable bound and obtain the max income at the same time using programming; At last,a practical application of risk control shows that the method is effective.
The research of this text provides the method of risk management for the smallenterprises, and this method is reasonable, practicable and functional. It can improve thedevelopment of enterprises and social economy in our country.
本文研究了软件项目风险管理的一般性方法，其中对Boehm的理论体系、SEI的CRM体系以及Charette方法的框架体系进行了分析，比较了各自体系的优缺点。以经典的软件项目风险管理理论为基础，提出一种适合于中小型软件企业的、简洁、易用的项目风险管理方法体系。该方法分为风险识别、风险评估、风险控制三大步骤，具有实施成本较低、对操作人员的经验和技术要求不高以及流程较简单等特点。在风险识别阶段，采用TCQR模型建立了一般性项目风险驱动因子的标准集，以风险分类表为基础，给出了TBQ调查问卷。TBQ调查问卷使得对风险驱动因子的识别和客观评价项目组的管理能力具有了可操作性，也为TCQR模型的实际应用提供了保证。针对中小型软件企业的风险控制问题，进一步提出一种“收益最大化的软件项目风险优化控制”方法，该方法在风险控制过程中，通过建立一个风险优化控制模型，运用动态规划方法，实现风险控制方案的自动选择，把风险控制在可接受范围内，同时取得软件项目风险管理的最大收益。最后，把该方法应用于一个具体软件项目的风险控制，验证了该方法的有效性。
本文的研究，提供了一种可供中小型软件企业项目风险管理的方法，该方法突出了合理性、可行性和实用性，对我国企业改革和社会经济的发展有一定的促进作用。
As one of the most critical contains in software project management, riskmanagement was getting more and more concerns by software developers and projectteams. It has been testified by practice that bringing risk management into effectsystematically was becoming an important measurement to guarantee delivering theprogram successfully during the software process. The present theories and experiencesare aimed at the great and complicated project of the big software enterprises. Due to thelimited of fund, people and other elements, the power of resisting risk of the smallsoftware enterprises is weak. So it is important to analyze the feature and problems of thesoftware risk management in small enterprises, and work out a proper way for thesoftware risk management for small enterprises.
The study contents of this paper are as follow. Firstly studying and comparinggeneral theories about software risk management, including the system of Beohm, CRMmodel of SEI, Risky method; Secondly, instituting a concise method of software riskmanagement according to the characteristics of small-scale enterprises based on theclassical theories. This method includes risk identify, risk evaluate and risk control. Forthis method, the cost is cheap, processes are simple and the requirement to theexperiences and techniques of operators isn't strict; Thirdly, putting forward a method ofoptimizing software risk for the sake of max income, through setting up a model of riskcontrol, the method can automatically choose the schemes to control the risk in anacceptable bound and obtain the max income at the same time using programming; At last,a practical application of risk control shows that the method is effective.
The research of this text provides the method of risk management for the smallenterprises, and this method is reasonable, practicable and functional. It can improve thedevelopment of enterprises and social economy in our country.
引文
1 丛微．中国软件业何去何从．大众科技报．2006．8．13
2 Williams TM. A classed bibliography of recent research relating to project risk management. European Journal of Operational Research 1995(85): 18～38.
3 Boehm, B. W. Software Risk Management. IEEE Computer Society Press Washington D. C, 1989.
4 Charette, Robert N. Software engineering risk analysis and management. McGraw-Hill Software Engineering Series. New York Inter text Publications. McGraw-Hill Book, 1989.
5 Conrow, E. H., Shishido, P. S. Implementing Risk Management on Software Intensive projects. IEEE Software, May/June 1997: 83～89.
6 Microsoft Corp. MSF risk management process, http://www.Microsoft.com, 1999(6).
7 P. P. Tallon, etal. Using Real Options Analysis for Evaluating Uncertain Investments in Information Technology: Insights From The ICIS 2001 Debate, Communications of the Association for Information Systems, 2002(9): 136～167.
8 Walsh, K. R. & Schneider, H. The role of motivation and risk behaviors in software development success. Information Research, 2002, 7(3).
9 P. L. Powell, J. H. Klein. Risk management for information systems development. Journal of Information Technology, 1996, 11(4): 307～317.
10 Marvin J. Carr, S. L. Konda, I. Monarch, F. C. Ulrich, C. F. Walker. Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification. SEI Technical Report SEI-93-TR-O06, Pittsburgh, PA: Software Engineering Institute, (SEI internal report).
11 Wideman, R. Max. Project and program risk management: a guide to managing project risks and opportunities. Project Management Institute, 1992.
12 Brian P. Gallagher. Software acquisition risk management key process area (KPA)—a guidebook version 1.02. CMU/SEI-99-HB-001, 1999(10).
13 Donald Reifer. Ten deadly risks in Internet and intranet software development. IEEE Software, May/June 1997, 126～127, 130～133.
14 薛华成．管理信息系统(第三版)．北京：清华大学出版社，1999：328～330．
15 谢科范．技术创新风险管理．石家庄：河北科学技术出版社，1999．
16 黄蒙．基于用户需求的软件项目风险管理模型．计算机工程与应用，2003(4)：14～17，101．
17 余坚，郑跃斌．信息系统开发过程风险管理的实施模型．计算机工程与应用，2002(12)：110～112，153．
18 莫湘群．软件项目的进度风险管理．电脑与信息技术，2002(4)：67～70．
19 文亚栋．软件项目的风险管理．计算机应用系统，2002(2)：72～74．
20 乔婉风．软件项目开发中的风险管理．国外建材科技，2003(3)：132～133．
21 祁业辉．IT风险及其风险管理．海南师范学院学报：人文社会科学版，2004(4)：109～115．
22 Boehm, B.W. Software risk management: principles and practices. IEEE Software, 1991,8(1): 32～41.
23 Frederick P. Brooks. No silver bullet: Essence and accidents of software engineering. IEEE Computer, April 1987, 20(4): 10～19
24 Garvey, P., Phair, D.J.&Wilson, J.A. An Information Architecture for Risk Assessment and Management. IEEE Software, May/June 1997: 25～35.
25 Robin Baines, ATH tetchier B.V. Across Disciplines: Risk, Design, Method, Process, and Tools. IEEE Software, July/August 1998: 61～64.
26 王莲芬，许树柏．层次分析法引论．北京：中国人民大学出版社，1990．
27 周维，王明哲．基于前景理论的风险决策权重研究．系统工程理论与实践，2005(2)：74～78．
28 骆正清．AHP中不一致性判断矩阵调整的新方法．系统工程理论与实践，2004(6)：84～92．
29 Bob Hughes，Mike Cotterell．Software Project Management．Third Edition．周伯生，廖彬山，任爱华译．北京：机械工业出版社，2004：137．
30 Scott E H，Gregory R．N．风险管理与保险．陈秉正，王君，周伏平译．北京：清华大学出版社，2001．
31 Boehm B W. Software Engineering Economics. N.J.: Prentice Hall,1981.
32 Tom D M，Timothy Lister著．与熊共舞—软件项目风险管理．熊节，马姗姗译．北京：清华大学出版社，2004．
33 Xu Ru zhi, Qian Leqiu. CMM-based Software Risk Control Optimization[C]. Proceedings of the 2003 IEEE International Conference on Information Reuse and Integration (IRI-2003). Las Vegas, 2003:499～503.
2 Williams TM. A classed bibliography of recent research relating to project risk management. European Journal of Operational Research 1995(85): 18～38.
3 Boehm, B. W. Software Risk Management. IEEE Computer Society Press Washington D. C, 1989.
4 Charette, Robert N. Software engineering risk analysis and management. McGraw-Hill Software Engineering Series. New York Inter text Publications. McGraw-Hill Book, 1989.
5 Conrow, E. H., Shishido, P. S. Implementing Risk Management on Software Intensive projects. IEEE Software, May/June 1997: 83～89.
6 Microsoft Corp. MSF risk management process, http://www.Microsoft.com, 1999(6).
7 P. P. Tallon, etal. Using Real Options Analysis for Evaluating Uncertain Investments in Information Technology: Insights From The ICIS 2001 Debate, Communications of the Association for Information Systems, 2002(9): 136～167.
8 Walsh, K. R. & Schneider, H. The role of motivation and risk behaviors in software development success. Information Research, 2002, 7(3).
9 P. L. Powell, J. H. Klein. Risk management for information systems development. Journal of Information Technology, 1996, 11(4): 307～317.
10 Marvin J. Carr, S. L. Konda, I. Monarch, F. C. Ulrich, C. F. Walker. Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification. SEI Technical Report SEI-93-TR-O06, Pittsburgh, PA: Software Engineering Institute, (SEI internal report).
11 Wideman, R. Max. Project and program risk management: a guide to managing project risks and opportunities. Project Management Institute, 1992.
12 Brian P. Gallagher. Software acquisition risk management key process area (KPA)—a guidebook version 1.02. CMU/SEI-99-HB-001, 1999(10).
13 Donald Reifer. Ten deadly risks in Internet and intranet software development. IEEE Software, May/June 1997, 126～127, 130～133.
14 薛华成．管理信息系统(第三版)．北京：清华大学出版社，1999：328～330．
15 谢科范．技术创新风险管理．石家庄：河北科学技术出版社，1999．
16 黄蒙．基于用户需求的软件项目风险管理模型．计算机工程与应用，2003(4)：14～17，101．
17 余坚，郑跃斌．信息系统开发过程风险管理的实施模型．计算机工程与应用，2002(12)：110～112，153．
18 莫湘群．软件项目的进度风险管理．电脑与信息技术，2002(4)：67～70．
19 文亚栋．软件项目的风险管理．计算机应用系统，2002(2)：72～74．
20 乔婉风．软件项目开发中的风险管理．国外建材科技，2003(3)：132～133．
21 祁业辉．IT风险及其风险管理．海南师范学院学报：人文社会科学版，2004(4)：109～115．
22 Boehm, B.W. Software risk management: principles and practices. IEEE Software, 1991,8(1): 32～41.
23 Frederick P. Brooks. No silver bullet: Essence and accidents of software engineering. IEEE Computer, April 1987, 20(4): 10～19
24 Garvey, P., Phair, D.J.&Wilson, J.A. An Information Architecture for Risk Assessment and Management. IEEE Software, May/June 1997: 25～35.
25 Robin Baines, ATH tetchier B.V. Across Disciplines: Risk, Design, Method, Process, and Tools. IEEE Software, July/August 1998: 61～64.
26 王莲芬，许树柏．层次分析法引论．北京：中国人民大学出版社，1990．
27 周维，王明哲．基于前景理论的风险决策权重研究．系统工程理论与实践，2005(2)：74～78．
28 骆正清．AHP中不一致性判断矩阵调整的新方法．系统工程理论与实践，2004(6)：84～92．
29 Bob Hughes，Mike Cotterell．Software Project Management．Third Edition．周伯生，廖彬山，任爱华译．北京：机械工业出版社，2004：137．
30 Scott E H，Gregory R．N．风险管理与保险．陈秉正，王君，周伏平译．北京：清华大学出版社，2001．
31 Boehm B W. Software Engineering Economics. N.J.: Prentice Hall,1981.
32 Tom D M，Timothy Lister著．与熊共舞—软件项目风险管理．熊节，马姗姗译．北京：清华大学出版社，2004．
33 Xu Ru zhi, Qian Leqiu. CMM-based Software Risk Control Optimization[C]. Proceedings of the 2003 IEEE International Conference on Information Reuse and Integration (IRI-2003). Las Vegas, 2003:499～503.