发展油菜籽生物柴油对我国主要农产品的供需影响研究
摘要
随着世界的迅猛发展,现代工业作为经济发展最重要的推动因素,其对能源的需求与日剧增,石化能源作为能源最重要的组成部分,因此资源有限性越来越引起人们对新能源的探索。生物能源作为新一代能源,因其良好的环保性能以及资源易获的特点越来越受到人们的重视。
中国是一个农业大国,油菜籽是中国主要的油料作物之一,而中国仍然拥有大量的冬闲田和盐碱地来种植油菜籽,因此不少学者和其他行业的人提出了发展油菜籽生物柴油的观点。发展油菜籽生物柴油是否可行,是由多方面的因素来综合决定的。例如,原料油菜籽的可获性、发展油菜籽生物柴油对我国主要粮油作物和畜产品的影响等等方面,都是必须考虑到的。笔者基于上述原因,主要分析了发展生物柴油对我国主要粮油作物和畜产品的影响。笔者运用那拉维供给反应函数以及双对数需求函数,运用局部均衡理论来构造模型,分析问题。
从模型的求解结果中,笔者得到以下结论。以2007年为基期,在未来五年内,对粮油作物而言,大豆的价格增幅最大,小麦、玉米的增幅次之,油菜籽和稻谷的价格增长比较平缓;对畜产品而言,猪肉、羊肉的增幅比较明显,鸡肉呈平缓增长趋势,牛肉价格略有下降。稻谷、油菜籽、玉米和大豆的种植面积和总供给量都有所上升,小麦的种植面积和总供给量有所下降。而畜产品的消费量在未来五年内,猪肉、牛肉、鸡肉的需求量不断上升,而羊肉的需求量有所波动。
在“模拟方案”下,以2007年为基期,在未来五年内,较之“基准方案”,油菜籽的价格涨幅最大为39.47%,稻谷增长6.8%,小麦的价格有所下降,玉米、大豆的价格呈波动状态,总体趋势为上升。对畜产品而言,猪肉、牛肉的价格有所下降,羊肉的价格有所上升,鸡肉的价格变化不明显。模拟方案中,除稻谷的种植面积和总供给量较之基准下降,小麦、油菜籽、玉米、大豆的种植面积和总共计量较之基准均增加。油菜籽、稻谷的需求量较之基准方案有所下降,小麦的需求量较之基准方案有所上升,玉米的需求量略有波动。在模拟方案下,猪肉、牛肉的供给较之基准方案有所增加,羊肉、鸡肉的供给较之基准有所下降。猪肉、牛肉的需求量较之基准方案有所上升,羊肉的需求量较之基准方案有所下降,鸡肉的需求量有所波动,但波动不大。
因此,基于对模型的结论分析,发展生物柴油应该考虑其对我国主要粮油作物和畜产品的影响而谨慎行之。
Due to the swift development of global industry, huge increase of energy consumption, and scarcity of fossil fuels, the whole world will be confronted with risk of energy shortages. As the new generation of renewable, clean, safe energy, biodiesel is welcomed. Therefore, many countries have formulated ambitious plans to develop biodiesel.
Under the environment of closed economy, We develop a partial equilibrium model belonging to agricultural sector which contains five main crop, rice, wheat, corn, rapeseed and soybean and four main livestock, beef, pork, mutton and chicken, uses the price mechanism, which is based on the theory of neo-classical economics, to simulate that developing rapeseed biodiesel effects on the supply and demand and prices of crops and livestock with GAMS software.
In the "Reference Scenario", as population growth and increasing per capita GDP, consumers increase demand for paddy, rapeseed and soybean, but reduce demand for wheat. The farming land for paddy is 28.492 million hectares in 2008 and 27.019 million hectares in 2012. The farming land for rapeseed, corn and soybean steadily increase. However, the wheat area drops continually from 20.788 million hectares in 2008 to 18.379 million hectares in 2012 while the total supplies of paddy, rapeseed, corn and soybean increase. On the contrary, the total supply of wheat decreases 3.95% compared to the base year. The production of pork, beef, mutton and chicken in five following years will increased by 11.9%, 45.2%, 22.9%, and 22.7% respectively compared to the base year.
In the Scenario of developing rapeseed biodiesel, the total supplies of paddy, rapeseed, corn and soybean raises by 27.3%, 24.3%, 19.3%, 7.7% while the total supply of wheat reduces by 3.4% in 2012 compared to the base year 2007. At the same time, the livestock supply increases dramatically, with an increase of 11.5%, 34.1%, 27.7% and 22.7% in 2012 compared to the base year 2007.Compared to benchmark in the Scenario, from 2008 to 2012, the total supply of rapeseed and wheat increases progressively and the main trend of corn and soybean supply increases while the paddy supply decreases. For livestock, in the five years the total supply of pork and beef increases. On the contrary, the mutton supply reduces and there is little influence on the total supply of chicken compared to the benchmark. The crops and livestock consumption changes in pace with their supply and the consumption of wheat is decreasing while others is growing.
Therefore, considering the little benefit to the energy system and effect upon the agricultural system, developing rapeseed biodiesel needs government guidance.
中国是一个农业大国,油菜籽是中国主要的油料作物之一,而中国仍然拥有大量的冬闲田和盐碱地来种植油菜籽,因此不少学者和其他行业的人提出了发展油菜籽生物柴油的观点。发展油菜籽生物柴油是否可行,是由多方面的因素来综合决定的。例如,原料油菜籽的可获性、发展油菜籽生物柴油对我国主要粮油作物和畜产品的影响等等方面,都是必须考虑到的。笔者基于上述原因,主要分析了发展生物柴油对我国主要粮油作物和畜产品的影响。笔者运用那拉维供给反应函数以及双对数需求函数,运用局部均衡理论来构造模型,分析问题。
从模型的求解结果中,笔者得到以下结论。以2007年为基期,在未来五年内,对粮油作物而言,大豆的价格增幅最大,小麦、玉米的增幅次之,油菜籽和稻谷的价格增长比较平缓;对畜产品而言,猪肉、羊肉的增幅比较明显,鸡肉呈平缓增长趋势,牛肉价格略有下降。稻谷、油菜籽、玉米和大豆的种植面积和总供给量都有所上升,小麦的种植面积和总供给量有所下降。而畜产品的消费量在未来五年内,猪肉、牛肉、鸡肉的需求量不断上升,而羊肉的需求量有所波动。
在“模拟方案”下,以2007年为基期,在未来五年内,较之“基准方案”,油菜籽的价格涨幅最大为39.47%,稻谷增长6.8%,小麦的价格有所下降,玉米、大豆的价格呈波动状态,总体趋势为上升。对畜产品而言,猪肉、牛肉的价格有所下降,羊肉的价格有所上升,鸡肉的价格变化不明显。模拟方案中,除稻谷的种植面积和总供给量较之基准下降,小麦、油菜籽、玉米、大豆的种植面积和总共计量较之基准均增加。油菜籽、稻谷的需求量较之基准方案有所下降,小麦的需求量较之基准方案有所上升,玉米的需求量略有波动。在模拟方案下,猪肉、牛肉的供给较之基准方案有所增加,羊肉、鸡肉的供给较之基准有所下降。猪肉、牛肉的需求量较之基准方案有所上升,羊肉的需求量较之基准方案有所下降,鸡肉的需求量有所波动,但波动不大。
因此,基于对模型的结论分析,发展生物柴油应该考虑其对我国主要粮油作物和畜产品的影响而谨慎行之。
Due to the swift development of global industry, huge increase of energy consumption, and scarcity of fossil fuels, the whole world will be confronted with risk of energy shortages. As the new generation of renewable, clean, safe energy, biodiesel is welcomed. Therefore, many countries have formulated ambitious plans to develop biodiesel.
Under the environment of closed economy, We develop a partial equilibrium model belonging to agricultural sector which contains five main crop, rice, wheat, corn, rapeseed and soybean and four main livestock, beef, pork, mutton and chicken, uses the price mechanism, which is based on the theory of neo-classical economics, to simulate that developing rapeseed biodiesel effects on the supply and demand and prices of crops and livestock with GAMS software.
In the "Reference Scenario", as population growth and increasing per capita GDP, consumers increase demand for paddy, rapeseed and soybean, but reduce demand for wheat. The farming land for paddy is 28.492 million hectares in 2008 and 27.019 million hectares in 2012. The farming land for rapeseed, corn and soybean steadily increase. However, the wheat area drops continually from 20.788 million hectares in 2008 to 18.379 million hectares in 2012 while the total supplies of paddy, rapeseed, corn and soybean increase. On the contrary, the total supply of wheat decreases 3.95% compared to the base year. The production of pork, beef, mutton and chicken in five following years will increased by 11.9%, 45.2%, 22.9%, and 22.7% respectively compared to the base year.
In the Scenario of developing rapeseed biodiesel, the total supplies of paddy, rapeseed, corn and soybean raises by 27.3%, 24.3%, 19.3%, 7.7% while the total supply of wheat reduces by 3.4% in 2012 compared to the base year 2007. At the same time, the livestock supply increases dramatically, with an increase of 11.5%, 34.1%, 27.7% and 22.7% in 2012 compared to the base year 2007.Compared to benchmark in the Scenario, from 2008 to 2012, the total supply of rapeseed and wheat increases progressively and the main trend of corn and soybean supply increases while the paddy supply decreases. For livestock, in the five years the total supply of pork and beef increases. On the contrary, the mutton supply reduces and there is little influence on the total supply of chicken compared to the benchmark. The crops and livestock consumption changes in pace with their supply and the consumption of wheat is decreasing while others is growing.
Therefore, considering the little benefit to the energy system and effect upon the agricultural system, developing rapeseed biodiesel needs government guidance.
引文
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2.李烨,丁祥等,生物柴油发展现状及前景[J].能源环保,2009.02
3.陈永福.中国食物供求与预测[M].中国农业大学出版社,2004
4.代永刚,马毓霞.生物柴油的现状利发展前景[J].粮油食品科技,2006.01
5.樊根胜,中国未来粮食供求预测的差异[J].中国农村观察,1997.03
6.费世民,张旭东等.国内外能源植物资源及其开发利用现状[J]..四川林业科技,2005(26)3:20-26.
7.傅廷栋.油菜改良与生物柴油[J].发展再生能源之技术创新与政策整合研讨会论文集.2006.14-20
8.高鸿业.西方经济学(微观部分)[M].中国人民大学出版社,2001.08
9.高辉,多重共线性的诊断方法[J].统计与信息论坛,2003.01
10.高惠璇,处理多元线性回归中自变量共线性的几种方法[J].数理统计与管理,2000.09
11.管巧燕,廖福霖等.国外生物质能发展综述[J].农机化研究,2007.11
12.郭银平,肖爱军等.能源植物的研究现状和发展前景[J].山东农业科学,2007.04
13.国家发展和改革委员会.可再生能源发展“十一五”规划.2007年8月
14.国内三大生物柴油产业化示范项目启动[J].河南化工,2009
15.韩久同,费世民等,国外生物柴油产业化发展经验概述[J].四川林业科技,2007年12月
16.黄濒仪,黄宗煌.推广能源作物生产的问题与政策调和[J].能源季刊.2006.03
17.黄濒仪,卢文章,黄宗煌.能源作物的应用与发展[J].化工技术.2004(139):191-208
18.黄季煜,李宁辉.中国农业政策分析和预测模型--CAPSiM[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2003(2),30-41.
19.黄季焜.全球及区域生物能源发展:机遇与挑战[A],2007.
20.混合规划问题网.hrtp://www.cs.wisc.edu/cpnet/
21.冀星,李黑虎,张小豹等.中国生物柴油产业发展战略思考[J].2006:48-61.
22.冀星.对中国生物柴油产业发展的战略思考[J].国际石油经济.2006.10
23.蒋剑春,杨凯华.生物柴油研究进展[J].中国能源,2006.02
24.金青哲,刘元法等.生物柴油发展现状和趋势[J].粮油加工和食品机械,2006.01
25.李超明,美国生物柴油产业政策变化的经济后果[J].农业展望,2008年第11期
26.李细斌,王均国.发展生物柴油的可行性分析及产业化建议[J].湖北农业科学,2008年11月
27.刘国旗,多重共线性的产生原因及其诊断处理[J].合肥工业大学学报,2001.08
28.苏柱华,林莉,国外发展生物柴油产业的成功经验及其对我国的启示[J].2006年中国农学会学术年会
29.田树新.生物柴油的研究进展和发展状况[J].中国林副特产,2007.02
30.王汉中.发展油菜生物柴油的潜力、问题与对策[J].中国油料作物学报,2005(6),74-76.
31.王兴国,国外生物柴油产业化发展现状及对我国的启示[J].粮食与食品科学,2006年第4期
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