宏观调控对西安市住宅价格影响的研究
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摘要
房地产市场是一个完整市场经济体系中不可或缺的重要部分。随着我国城镇住宅市场的不断发展,城市住宅价格日益受到关注。作为房地产市场的主角,住宅市场和其他商品市场一样,要受到诸如世界经济环境、自然灾害等外界因素和内部因素的影响；而其中政府和市场的关系,则是房地产市场的一个永久性话题。本文立足于当前的经济形势,主要研究了政府宏观政策与住宅价格间的关系、政府各项适时措施对住宅价格的影响以及影响西安市住宅价格的主要宏观因素等内容。
宏观政策的导向性会引起住宅供应市场和需求市场的变化,住宅市场供需的变化又将引起住宅价格的波动。本文以西安市为例,就“宏观调控对西安市住宅价格影响”问题作了定量和定性分析。首先,本文结合国家常采取的宏观调控措施和住宅价格宏观影响因素两方面,通过比较确定了影响西安市住宅价格的主要宏观因素。其次,从西安市住宅市场现状出发,定性的分析了宏观调控对西安市住宅价格的影响。最后,在定性分析的基础上,以计量经济学时间序列数据为理论基础,构建了西安市住宅价格宏观因素影响模型,定量分析了宏观调控政策对西安市住宅价格的影响。通过模型估计,分析出西安市市镇人口的变化和土地平均交易价格是影响西安市住宅价格变化的主要宏观因素。
本文从理论和实证角度详细分析了宏观调控对西安市住宅价格的影响,引用了计量经济学模型,量化了宏观调控与西安市住宅价格的关系,这为西安市政府调控住宅价格提供了参考,有一定的现实意义。
With the development of China's housing market, the housing price has been increasingly concerned about. Because of housing market is an important part of the real estate market, so research the real estate housing prices are very important for studying the significance. Therefore, this paper select housing prices as the research object, has analyzed the relationship between housing prices and macro-control, and the effects of macro-control on housing price in Xi'an.
With the macroeconomic policy changes, the residential supply and demand market will change. This result will affect the housing price. This paper take Xi'an for example, have gave a quantitative and qualitative analysis. Fist, this paper identified the main macroeconomic factors by comparing macro-control measures and housing price macro factors. Secondly, the paper analyzed the effect of macro-control on the price of housing in Xi'an, from the quantitative point of view. Finally, this paper has build a mathematical model, which is about the relations of macro-factors and housing prices, to analysis the impact of macro-control policies on housing price in Xi'an. Through the model estimates, we have found the Xi'an municipal population change and land average transaction price are the major housing price macro factors in Xi'an.
This paper detailed analyzed the macro-control effects on housing prices in Xi'an by qualitative analysis and quantitative Analysis, and quantified the relationship between macro-control and housing prices in Xi'an by citing the econometric model. The study results have a certain practical significance to government regulate of housing price.
宏观政策的导向性会引起住宅供应市场和需求市场的变化,住宅市场供需的变化又将引起住宅价格的波动。本文以西安市为例,就“宏观调控对西安市住宅价格影响”问题作了定量和定性分析。首先,本文结合国家常采取的宏观调控措施和住宅价格宏观影响因素两方面,通过比较确定了影响西安市住宅价格的主要宏观因素。其次,从西安市住宅市场现状出发,定性的分析了宏观调控对西安市住宅价格的影响。最后,在定性分析的基础上,以计量经济学时间序列数据为理论基础,构建了西安市住宅价格宏观因素影响模型,定量分析了宏观调控政策对西安市住宅价格的影响。通过模型估计,分析出西安市市镇人口的变化和土地平均交易价格是影响西安市住宅价格变化的主要宏观因素。
本文从理论和实证角度详细分析了宏观调控对西安市住宅价格的影响,引用了计量经济学模型,量化了宏观调控与西安市住宅价格的关系,这为西安市政府调控住宅价格提供了参考,有一定的现实意义。
With the development of China's housing market, the housing price has been increasingly concerned about. Because of housing market is an important part of the real estate market, so research the real estate housing prices are very important for studying the significance. Therefore, this paper select housing prices as the research object, has analyzed the relationship between housing prices and macro-control, and the effects of macro-control on housing price in Xi'an.
With the macroeconomic policy changes, the residential supply and demand market will change. This result will affect the housing price. This paper take Xi'an for example, have gave a quantitative and qualitative analysis. Fist, this paper identified the main macroeconomic factors by comparing macro-control measures and housing price macro factors. Secondly, the paper analyzed the effect of macro-control on the price of housing in Xi'an, from the quantitative point of view. Finally, this paper has build a mathematical model, which is about the relations of macro-factors and housing prices, to analysis the impact of macro-control policies on housing price in Xi'an. Through the model estimates, we have found the Xi'an municipal population change and land average transaction price are the major housing price macro factors in Xi'an.
This paper detailed analyzed the macro-control effects on housing prices in Xi'an by qualitative analysis and quantitative Analysis, and quantified the relationship between macro-control and housing prices in Xi'an by citing the econometric model. The study results have a certain practical significance to government regulate of housing price.
引文
[1]Hsiao C. Analysis of Panel Date[M]. New York:Cambridge University Press in 2003.
[2]张建新.西安市住宅价格比较研究[D].西安建筑科技大学硕士论文,2009.
[3]施建刚.房地产开发与管理,第二版.上海：同济大学出版社[M],2007.
[4]王德章.价格学.北京：中国人民大学出版社[M],2006.
[5]Poterba, J.M.,(1991),Housing price Dynamics:The Role of Tax Policy and Demography Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Vol2.
[6]Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2:2003
[7]Stephen, Is the information deficiency in real estate evident in Public Market trading? [J].Real Estate Economics,1999
[8]MalPezzi, Explaining Intermetropolitan Variation in Housing Prices, Rents and Land Prices, Real Estate Economic,1996.24,219-245
[9]MalPezzi. Market fundamental, Public Policy and Private gain:house Price Dynamics in SingaPore.JoumalofProPertyResearchl9(2).2002.121-143.
[10]RichardK.Green. SPeeulation and Price Bubbles in the Korean and Japanese Real Eatate Markets. Joumal of Real Estate Finance and EenomieS.1993.6.73-87
[11]中原.国外房地产市场地价与房价的关系.中外房地产导报,2005(07)
[12]Chiman,Szemun.Challeng.The influence of macroeconomic regulation and control on Housing price in Hongkong.2000.
[13]Smith.Relations of Housing price and soil-rent value.2003.
[14]Chiman.Szemun. the lagging error in real estate price indices Real Estate economics,2003,
[15]梁云芳,高铁梅.中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析[J].经济研究,2007(8)’
[16]PotePan. Analysis of Panel Data[J].New York:Cambridge University Press in 2003.
[17]Peng. Wheaton.Inference for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels Where the Time Dimension is Fixde[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999.
[18]EricJ、 Levina and RobcrtE. Wright.What drives housing prices?[J].Economic Bulletin,2005.
[19]周治平,论房地产市场中的政府调控[J]。当代经济研究,1998(2)
[20]郭松海,张振勇,房地产宏观调控的背景分析与创新举措[J]。山东经济,2006(1).
[21]俞明轩,房地产市场的宏观调控要科学[J],求是杂志,2009(3)
[22]徐树炎,浅析政府对房地产市场宏观调控的紧迫性[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2008(12).
[23]崔光灿,房地产价格波动与宏观调控[J].房地产市场,2006(1)
[24]沈悦,刘洪玉.住宅价格与经济基本面：1995-2002年中国14城市的实证研究[J].经济研究,2004(6)
[25]朱道林,董玛丽.地价与房价的经济学分析.中国土地,2006(7)
[26]赵丽莉.影响北京市商品住宅价格因素的实证分析[D].北京化工大学硕士论文,2007.
[27]张大亮、周丽梅.顾客需求的变化对房地产价格的影响[J].价格理论与实践,2004(10)
[28]姜玉砚、段燕临.影响房地产价格的四大因素[J].北方经济,2003(6)
[29]田益祥,谭地军,赵冰.影响中国房地产价格影响因素及其程度分析[J].商场现代化,2005(7)
[30]魏海燕.商品住宅主要因素定价模型研究[J].科技导报,2006(11)
[31]施金亮,梁琼芬.陈晟,中国房地产市场十大思考[J].2008(1)
[32]陶芳.房地产价格影响因素探究及实证分析,[D].天津大学硕士论文,2008.
[33]多恩布什、费希尔、斯塔兹、范家骧.宏观经济学,第七版.北京：中国人民大学出版社[M],2005.
[34]余宏.房地产经济学.北京：人民交通出版社[M],2008.
[35]曹红军.经济环境与宏观调控,第一版.山东：山东人民出版社[M],2005.
[36]龚六堂.动态经济学.北京：北京大学出版社[M],2006.
[37]曹振良.房地产经济学通论,第一版.北京：北京大学出版社[M],2003.
[38]王万全.我国房地产宏观调控政策研究[D].上海交通大学硕士论文,2007.
[39]金圣才.西方经济学.北京：中国石化出版社[M],2009.
[40]Jack Hirshleifer, David Hirshleifer.价格理论及其应用.北京：机械工业出版社[M],2009.
[41]金月萍.房地产价格变动因素及趋势[J].浙江统计。2006(3)
[42]Poterba M J,Shiller W D N.Housing price Dynamics:Comments and Discussion[J], Bookings Papers on Economic Activity,Washington,1991(2).
[43]乐加栋.住宅价格波动与经济基本面及其政策比较研究[D].复旦大学硕士论文,2009.
[44]郝前进.特征价格法与城市住宅价格的决定机制.江苏：南京大学出版社[M],2009.
[45]田益祥,赵兵.影响中国住宅价格的宏观因素及其程度分析[J].商场现代化.2005(11).
[46]黄大全,郑伟元.海外城市化与耕地保护对中国的启示[J].中国土地科学.2005(6).
[47]李四美.利率上调对房价的影响分析[J].中国房地产金融.2008(8).
[48]林素钢.宏观调控下背景下的中国房地产价格分析[J].南通大学学报.2006(1)
[49]白福周.房价上涨影响因素实证分析[D].浙江工业大学硕士论文,2009.
[50]庄彬惠.关于住宅价格影响因素的理论研究与数量分析[D].厦门大学硕士论文,2007.
[51]闫俐臻.西安市住宅价格影响因素分析及是正研究[D].长安大学硕士论文,2007.
[52]张建新.西安市住宅价格比较研究[D].西安建筑科技大学硕士论文,2009.
[53]周京奎.货币政策、银行贷款与住宅价格-对中国住宅市场的实证研究[J].财贸经济,2005(5)
[54]杨冬宁.住宅价格的多因素动态分析研究[D].复旦大学博士论文,2009.
[55]张娟锋.住宅价格与土地价格的城市间差异及其决定因素研究[D].浙江大学博士论文,2008.
[56]李子奈,潘文卿.计量经济学,第二版.北京：高等教育出版社[M],2000
[57]张晓峒.EVIEWS使用指南与案例.北京：机械工业出版社[M],2007
[2]张建新.西安市住宅价格比较研究[D].西安建筑科技大学硕士论文,2009.
[3]施建刚.房地产开发与管理,第二版.上海：同济大学出版社[M],2007.
[4]王德章.价格学.北京：中国人民大学出版社[M],2006.
[5]Poterba, J.M.,(1991),Housing price Dynamics:The Role of Tax Policy and Demography Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Vol2.
[6]Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2:2003
[7]Stephen, Is the information deficiency in real estate evident in Public Market trading? [J].Real Estate Economics,1999
[8]MalPezzi, Explaining Intermetropolitan Variation in Housing Prices, Rents and Land Prices, Real Estate Economic,1996.24,219-245
[9]MalPezzi. Market fundamental, Public Policy and Private gain:house Price Dynamics in SingaPore.JoumalofProPertyResearchl9(2).2002.121-143.
[10]RichardK.Green. SPeeulation and Price Bubbles in the Korean and Japanese Real Eatate Markets. Joumal of Real Estate Finance and EenomieS.1993.6.73-87
[11]中原.国外房地产市场地价与房价的关系.中外房地产导报,2005(07)
[12]Chiman,Szemun.Challeng.The influence of macroeconomic regulation and control on Housing price in Hongkong.2000.
[13]Smith.Relations of Housing price and soil-rent value.2003.
[14]Chiman.Szemun. the lagging error in real estate price indices Real Estate economics,2003,
[15]梁云芳,高铁梅.中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析[J].经济研究,2007(8)’
[16]PotePan. Analysis of Panel Data[J].New York:Cambridge University Press in 2003.
[17]Peng. Wheaton.Inference for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels Where the Time Dimension is Fixde[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999.
[18]EricJ、 Levina and RobcrtE. Wright.What drives housing prices?[J].Economic Bulletin,2005.
[19]周治平,论房地产市场中的政府调控[J]。当代经济研究,1998(2)
[20]郭松海,张振勇,房地产宏观调控的背景分析与创新举措[J]。山东经济,2006(1).
[21]俞明轩,房地产市场的宏观调控要科学[J],求是杂志,2009(3)
[22]徐树炎,浅析政府对房地产市场宏观调控的紧迫性[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2008(12).
[23]崔光灿,房地产价格波动与宏观调控[J].房地产市场,2006(1)
[24]沈悦,刘洪玉.住宅价格与经济基本面：1995-2002年中国14城市的实证研究[J].经济研究,2004(6)
[25]朱道林,董玛丽.地价与房价的经济学分析.中国土地,2006(7)
[26]赵丽莉.影响北京市商品住宅价格因素的实证分析[D].北京化工大学硕士论文,2007.
[27]张大亮、周丽梅.顾客需求的变化对房地产价格的影响[J].价格理论与实践,2004(10)
[28]姜玉砚、段燕临.影响房地产价格的四大因素[J].北方经济,2003(6)
[29]田益祥,谭地军,赵冰.影响中国房地产价格影响因素及其程度分析[J].商场现代化,2005(7)
[30]魏海燕.商品住宅主要因素定价模型研究[J].科技导报,2006(11)
[31]施金亮,梁琼芬.陈晟,中国房地产市场十大思考[J].2008(1)
[32]陶芳.房地产价格影响因素探究及实证分析,[D].天津大学硕士论文,2008.
[33]多恩布什、费希尔、斯塔兹、范家骧.宏观经济学,第七版.北京：中国人民大学出版社[M],2005.
[34]余宏.房地产经济学.北京：人民交通出版社[M],2008.
[35]曹红军.经济环境与宏观调控,第一版.山东：山东人民出版社[M],2005.
[36]龚六堂.动态经济学.北京：北京大学出版社[M],2006.
[37]曹振良.房地产经济学通论,第一版.北京：北京大学出版社[M],2003.
[38]王万全.我国房地产宏观调控政策研究[D].上海交通大学硕士论文,2007.
[39]金圣才.西方经济学.北京：中国石化出版社[M],2009.
[40]Jack Hirshleifer, David Hirshleifer.价格理论及其应用.北京：机械工业出版社[M],2009.
[41]金月萍.房地产价格变动因素及趋势[J].浙江统计。2006(3)
[42]Poterba M J,Shiller W D N.Housing price Dynamics:Comments and Discussion[J], Bookings Papers on Economic Activity,Washington,1991(2).
[43]乐加栋.住宅价格波动与经济基本面及其政策比较研究[D].复旦大学硕士论文,2009.
[44]郝前进.特征价格法与城市住宅价格的决定机制.江苏：南京大学出版社[M],2009.
[45]田益祥,赵兵.影响中国住宅价格的宏观因素及其程度分析[J].商场现代化.2005(11).
[46]黄大全,郑伟元.海外城市化与耕地保护对中国的启示[J].中国土地科学.2005(6).
[47]李四美.利率上调对房价的影响分析[J].中国房地产金融.2008(8).
[48]林素钢.宏观调控下背景下的中国房地产价格分析[J].南通大学学报.2006(1)
[49]白福周.房价上涨影响因素实证分析[D].浙江工业大学硕士论文,2009.
[50]庄彬惠.关于住宅价格影响因素的理论研究与数量分析[D].厦门大学硕士论文,2007.
[51]闫俐臻.西安市住宅价格影响因素分析及是正研究[D].长安大学硕士论文,2007.
[52]张建新.西安市住宅价格比较研究[D].西安建筑科技大学硕士论文,2009.
[53]周京奎.货币政策、银行贷款与住宅价格-对中国住宅市场的实证研究[J].财贸经济,2005(5)
[54]杨冬宁.住宅价格的多因素动态分析研究[D].复旦大学博士论文,2009.
[55]张娟锋.住宅价格与土地价格的城市间差异及其决定因素研究[D].浙江大学博士论文,2008.
[56]李子奈,潘文卿.计量经济学,第二版.北京：高等教育出版社[M],2000
[57]张晓峒.EVIEWS使用指南与案例.北京：机械工业出版社[M],2007