中国产业结构优化升级与就业协调发展研究
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摘要
产业结构优化升级与就业促进对一个地区或国家的经济增长和社会稳定至关重要。通过产业结构优化升级可以促进本地域经济的持续稳定增长，进而可以带动就业规模的相应提升，并会对解决高低层次劳动力就业不平衡的就业结构问题产生积极影响，从而实现产业结构优化升级与就业的协调发展，但是由于各国或地区的发展基础、经济制度等方面存在差异，因此，我国通过产业结构优化升级促进经济稳定增长的同时，就业规模、就业结构协调发展问题需结合实际情况分析。
为了较深入、系统地分析我国产业结构优化升级与就业协调发展问题，本文按照产业结构优化升级与就业关系的理论分析、国外经验启示、国内现状和制约因素分析、实现方式探讨、趋势预测的研究逻辑层层推进，形成了本研究的框架。
本文首先进行了产业结构优化升级与就业关系的理论分析，研究发现，产业结构优化升级与就业规模内生于一个国家或地区的要素禀赋结构升级，因为某地区或国家要素禀赋中劳动力占比较优势时，则大规模发展劳动密集型产业，这有利于促进大量劳动力就业，随着资本逐渐占比较优势，通过发展资本密集型产业，可以发挥资本对经济的带动作用，这样便可以通过产业结构优化升级促进就业规模与经济增长同步提升；企业升级必然会推动产业结构优化升级，而且企业升级与高低层次劳动力的就业平衡相互促进，企业升级客观上增加了企业对高层次劳动力的就业需求，从而能够逐渐解决高低层次劳动力就业不平衡的就业结构问题，因此通过企业升级能够促进产业结构优化升级与就业结构的协调发展。
在理论分析基础上，本文对美、日经济实践的总结说明，日本基于要素禀赋进行资本积累，并采用了合适的技术创新模式，制定了合理的产业政策等，这些是促使其产业结构优化升级与就业规模协调发展的关键，而且日本积极构建本国的国家价值链（NVC），通过企业升级逐渐解决了高低层次劳动力就业不平衡的就业结构问题；美国推进产业结构优化升级过程中，就业规模并没有协调发展的教训告诉我们，我国经济发展应建立在实体经济发展壮大基础上，促使国内产业结构中实体经济和虚拟经济形成合理配比，防止出现过度去工业化、过度产业虚拟化的局面。
在总结美、日实践经验基础上，本文接下来分析了影响我国产业结构优化升级与就业协调发展的现状及制约因素，研究发现，两者并没有协调发展，从产业结构优化升级与就业规模协调发展制约因素看，限制我国通过产业结构优化升级促进就业规模与经济增长同步较快提升，从而导致两者不能协调发展的制约因素包括技术进步缓慢、资本市场扭曲等，而国内企业普遍被国外跨国企业利用技术势力和市场势力锁定于价值链低端，而致使升级空间有限，从而通过企业升级促进产业结构优化升级与就业结构协调发展受到很大制约。
分析我国产业结构优化升级与就业规模协调发展的实现方式发现，协调的区域产业发展战略是两者协调发展的前提，而且协调战略要根据各区域相关产业在世界中的分工地位和要素禀赋结构差异制定，完善土地和资本等要素市场是基本保障，而技术进步、合理的产业政策是内外在动力，但是各区域内在动力发挥效应情况存在区域差异，东、中部地区的内在动力效应没有得到很好发挥，而西部地区得到了较好发挥，并且各区域需要有选择地应用产业政策支持某些对经济增长和就业规模提升都有较强促进作用的产业发展。
分析通过企业升级促进我国产业结构优化升级与就业结构协调发展的实现方式发现，集聚经济形成、企业升级政策分别是两者协调发展的内外在动力，而且为了促使集聚经济的形成，该区域的企业税收优惠政策、R&D溢出效应的发挥、服务机制创新等发挥了重要作用，接下来本文提出了通过企业升级促进我国产业结构优化升级与就业结构协调的模式，认为国内需要实行“立足构建国家价值链，实现国家价值链与全球价值链融合发展，引领某些全球价值链”的战略，按照全球价值链切入＞国家价值链培育＞国家价值链和全球价值链融合发展＞全球价值链垄断的顺序发展。
最后，本文首先预测了我国产业结构优化升级与就业协调发展的趋势，通过定量预测产业结构优化升级对就业规模影响的趋势说明，产业结构优化升级使第一产业产值比例减少，短期会减少就业，但在长期会增加就业，第二、三产业产值比例增长的长期效应是一致的，它们都会使就业规模增加，但第三产业增加的比例相对更大，从整体上看，我国推进产业结构优化升级中，就业规模可以得到较快提升，高低层次劳动力就业趋向平衡。
It’s important for a country or region to realize economic growth and socialstability by industrial structural optimization, upgrading and employment promotion.Industrial structural optimization, upgrading can promote sustainable and stablegrowth of the regional economy, and it can drive corresponding increase of theemployment scale and improve the employment structure. Each country or region’foundation, economic system etc. are different, and it depends on the actual situationof China to realize coordinated development between industrial structuraloptimization, upgrading and employment.
The dissertation analyzes the question of coordinated development betweenChina’s industrial structural optimization, upgrading and the employment scale, theemployment structure. The content of this dissertation includes a theoretical study ofindustrial structural optimization, upgrading and employment, the experience offoreign countries, the domestic situation and influencing factors, the implementationmechanism analysis, trends which forms the framework of this study.
Firstly, this dissertation makes a theoretical study between industrial structuraloptimization, upgrading and employment, and the conclusion is as follows: Theindustrial structural optimization, upgrading and the employment scale come fromthe factor endowment structure in a country or region. A country or region shouldmainly develop the labor-intensive industry when the labor force accounts for thecomparative advantage, and it should develop the capital-intensive industry when thecapital is gradually accounts for the comparative advantage, and the capital can playa leading role on the economic growth, then it will make the coordinateddevelopment between China’s industrial structural optimization, upgrading andemployment. Upgrading of enterprises can promote each other with high levels oflabor employment.
Secondly, we make the following conclusions by analyzing economicexperience of the United States and Japan: Japan made capital accumulation based on factor endowments, and made appropriate technological innovation anddeveloped some rational industrial policies, and those measures make coordinateddevelopment between Japan’s industrial structural optimation, upgrading andemployment scale. Japan actively constructed its national value chain, and itgradually eased the imbalance of high and low level of labor employment byenterprises upgrading. American experiences told us that China’s economy should bebuilt on the real economy and should prevent China’s economy from the situation ofexcessive de-industrialization and excessive industry virtualization.
The analysis of the status and constraints of coordinated development betweenChina’s industrial structural optimization, upgrading and the employment scaledraws the following conclusions: China’s industrial structure optimization,upgrading and employment don’t coordinate with each other. The factors restrictingthe coordinated development of employment and economic growth in industrialstructure optimization and upgrading include the factor price distortion, capitalmarket distortion and so on; while the factors restricting the balanced employment ofhigh and low level labor force in enterprises upgrading are mainly because thatdomestic enterprises are generally restricted on the low end of the value chain byforeign multinational enterprises which have great power in technology and market,and thus a limited space for upgrading.
The dissertation also analyzes the implementation mechanism of coordinationbetween China’s industrial structural optimization, upgrading and the employmentscale. Coordination of regional industrial development strategy is the premise, andimproving the land, capital and other factor markets is the basic term. Promotingtechnological progress is the inherent power which has different effect in promotingcoordination development between China’s industrial structural optimization,upgrading and the employment scale in different regions while reasonable industrialpolicy is the external power, and different region needs use different industrialpolicies to promote China’s industrial structural optimization and upgrading.
The analysis of the implementation mechanism of coordination betweenChina’s industrial structural optimization, upgrading and the employment structuremakes the following conclusions: the enterprise upgrading policy is the external power for coordinated development between China’s industrial structuraloptimization and upgrading and the employment structure while agglomerationeconomies are the intrinsic power. Corporate tax incentives, R&D spillovers,service mechanism innovation, search costs of labor can play an important role informing agglomeration economies. In this dissertation, we propose a coordinateddevelopment mode based on GVC and NVC, and the mode is that “firstly formingthe domestic value chain, achieving the integration between GVC and NVC, thenleading some global value chains”, and the order of development is joining theglobal value chain>the national value chain development>the integration betweenGVC and NVC>monopoly of some global value chains.
At last, trends of China's industrial structural optimization and upgrading’simpact on employment scale are that employment scale of the first industry willreduce in short term, and which will increase in long term. The employment scale ofthe second and third industry will increase in the future, but the third industry willincrease much faster than the second one. China’s employment scale will increasemuch faster and imbalance of employment will be eased by China’s industrialstructural optimization and upgrading.
为了较深入、系统地分析我国产业结构优化升级与就业协调发展问题，本文按照产业结构优化升级与就业关系的理论分析、国外经验启示、国内现状和制约因素分析、实现方式探讨、趋势预测的研究逻辑层层推进，形成了本研究的框架。
本文首先进行了产业结构优化升级与就业关系的理论分析，研究发现，产业结构优化升级与就业规模内生于一个国家或地区的要素禀赋结构升级，因为某地区或国家要素禀赋中劳动力占比较优势时，则大规模发展劳动密集型产业，这有利于促进大量劳动力就业，随着资本逐渐占比较优势，通过发展资本密集型产业，可以发挥资本对经济的带动作用，这样便可以通过产业结构优化升级促进就业规模与经济增长同步提升；企业升级必然会推动产业结构优化升级，而且企业升级与高低层次劳动力的就业平衡相互促进，企业升级客观上增加了企业对高层次劳动力的就业需求，从而能够逐渐解决高低层次劳动力就业不平衡的就业结构问题，因此通过企业升级能够促进产业结构优化升级与就业结构的协调发展。
在理论分析基础上，本文对美、日经济实践的总结说明，日本基于要素禀赋进行资本积累，并采用了合适的技术创新模式，制定了合理的产业政策等，这些是促使其产业结构优化升级与就业规模协调发展的关键，而且日本积极构建本国的国家价值链（NVC），通过企业升级逐渐解决了高低层次劳动力就业不平衡的就业结构问题；美国推进产业结构优化升级过程中，就业规模并没有协调发展的教训告诉我们，我国经济发展应建立在实体经济发展壮大基础上，促使国内产业结构中实体经济和虚拟经济形成合理配比，防止出现过度去工业化、过度产业虚拟化的局面。
在总结美、日实践经验基础上，本文接下来分析了影响我国产业结构优化升级与就业协调发展的现状及制约因素，研究发现，两者并没有协调发展，从产业结构优化升级与就业规模协调发展制约因素看，限制我国通过产业结构优化升级促进就业规模与经济增长同步较快提升，从而导致两者不能协调发展的制约因素包括技术进步缓慢、资本市场扭曲等，而国内企业普遍被国外跨国企业利用技术势力和市场势力锁定于价值链低端，而致使升级空间有限，从而通过企业升级促进产业结构优化升级与就业结构协调发展受到很大制约。
分析我国产业结构优化升级与就业规模协调发展的实现方式发现，协调的区域产业发展战略是两者协调发展的前提，而且协调战略要根据各区域相关产业在世界中的分工地位和要素禀赋结构差异制定，完善土地和资本等要素市场是基本保障，而技术进步、合理的产业政策是内外在动力，但是各区域内在动力发挥效应情况存在区域差异，东、中部地区的内在动力效应没有得到很好发挥，而西部地区得到了较好发挥，并且各区域需要有选择地应用产业政策支持某些对经济增长和就业规模提升都有较强促进作用的产业发展。
分析通过企业升级促进我国产业结构优化升级与就业结构协调发展的实现方式发现，集聚经济形成、企业升级政策分别是两者协调发展的内外在动力，而且为了促使集聚经济的形成，该区域的企业税收优惠政策、R&D溢出效应的发挥、服务机制创新等发挥了重要作用，接下来本文提出了通过企业升级促进我国产业结构优化升级与就业结构协调的模式，认为国内需要实行“立足构建国家价值链，实现国家价值链与全球价值链融合发展，引领某些全球价值链”的战略，按照全球价值链切入＞国家价值链培育＞国家价值链和全球价值链融合发展＞全球价值链垄断的顺序发展。
最后，本文首先预测了我国产业结构优化升级与就业协调发展的趋势，通过定量预测产业结构优化升级对就业规模影响的趋势说明，产业结构优化升级使第一产业产值比例减少，短期会减少就业，但在长期会增加就业，第二、三产业产值比例增长的长期效应是一致的，它们都会使就业规模增加，但第三产业增加的比例相对更大，从整体上看，我国推进产业结构优化升级中，就业规模可以得到较快提升，高低层次劳动力就业趋向平衡。
It’s important for a country or region to realize economic growth and socialstability by industrial structural optimization, upgrading and employment promotion.Industrial structural optimization, upgrading can promote sustainable and stablegrowth of the regional economy, and it can drive corresponding increase of theemployment scale and improve the employment structure. Each country or region’foundation, economic system etc. are different, and it depends on the actual situationof China to realize coordinated development between industrial structuraloptimization, upgrading and employment.
The dissertation analyzes the question of coordinated development betweenChina’s industrial structural optimization, upgrading and the employment scale, theemployment structure. The content of this dissertation includes a theoretical study ofindustrial structural optimization, upgrading and employment, the experience offoreign countries, the domestic situation and influencing factors, the implementationmechanism analysis, trends which forms the framework of this study.
Firstly, this dissertation makes a theoretical study between industrial structuraloptimization, upgrading and employment, and the conclusion is as follows: Theindustrial structural optimization, upgrading and the employment scale come fromthe factor endowment structure in a country or region. A country or region shouldmainly develop the labor-intensive industry when the labor force accounts for thecomparative advantage, and it should develop the capital-intensive industry when thecapital is gradually accounts for the comparative advantage, and the capital can playa leading role on the economic growth, then it will make the coordinateddevelopment between China’s industrial structural optimization, upgrading andemployment. Upgrading of enterprises can promote each other with high levels oflabor employment.
Secondly, we make the following conclusions by analyzing economicexperience of the United States and Japan: Japan made capital accumulation based on factor endowments, and made appropriate technological innovation anddeveloped some rational industrial policies, and those measures make coordinateddevelopment between Japan’s industrial structural optimation, upgrading andemployment scale. Japan actively constructed its national value chain, and itgradually eased the imbalance of high and low level of labor employment byenterprises upgrading. American experiences told us that China’s economy should bebuilt on the real economy and should prevent China’s economy from the situation ofexcessive de-industrialization and excessive industry virtualization.
The analysis of the status and constraints of coordinated development betweenChina’s industrial structural optimization, upgrading and the employment scaledraws the following conclusions: China’s industrial structure optimization,upgrading and employment don’t coordinate with each other. The factors restrictingthe coordinated development of employment and economic growth in industrialstructure optimization and upgrading include the factor price distortion, capitalmarket distortion and so on; while the factors restricting the balanced employment ofhigh and low level labor force in enterprises upgrading are mainly because thatdomestic enterprises are generally restricted on the low end of the value chain byforeign multinational enterprises which have great power in technology and market,and thus a limited space for upgrading.
The dissertation also analyzes the implementation mechanism of coordinationbetween China’s industrial structural optimization, upgrading and the employmentscale. Coordination of regional industrial development strategy is the premise, andimproving the land, capital and other factor markets is the basic term. Promotingtechnological progress is the inherent power which has different effect in promotingcoordination development between China’s industrial structural optimization,upgrading and the employment scale in different regions while reasonable industrialpolicy is the external power, and different region needs use different industrialpolicies to promote China’s industrial structural optimization and upgrading.
The analysis of the implementation mechanism of coordination betweenChina’s industrial structural optimization, upgrading and the employment structuremakes the following conclusions: the enterprise upgrading policy is the external power for coordinated development between China’s industrial structuraloptimization and upgrading and the employment structure while agglomerationeconomies are the intrinsic power. Corporate tax incentives, R&D spillovers,service mechanism innovation, search costs of labor can play an important role informing agglomeration economies. In this dissertation, we propose a coordinateddevelopment mode based on GVC and NVC, and the mode is that “firstly formingthe domestic value chain, achieving the integration between GVC and NVC, thenleading some global value chains”, and the order of development is joining theglobal value chain>the national value chain development>the integration betweenGVC and NVC>monopoly of some global value chains.
At last, trends of China's industrial structural optimization and upgrading’simpact on employment scale are that employment scale of the first industry willreduce in short term, and which will increase in long term. The employment scale ofthe second and third industry will increase in the future, but the third industry willincrease much faster than the second one. China’s employment scale will increasemuch faster and imbalance of employment will be eased by China’s industrialstructural optimization and upgrading.
引文
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