金融发展、融资约束与出口
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摘要
改革开放以来，我国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就，经济平均增长率高达两位数，尤其是在2001年加入世界贸易组织后，对外贸易快速发展，特别是对外出口的迅速增长，强力的支持了我国经济的高速发展。但是，随着2008年金融危机的爆发，中国的出口贸易迎来了前所未有的挑战和压力。我国的对外贸易面临着严峻的外部环境考验，同时还一直受国内媒体和学者诟病——中国经济发展过于依赖外贸。尽管我国政府一直强调坚持扩大内需战略以加快推进经济结构战略性调整，但是对外贸易的发展对我国经济的稳健增长起着无可代替的作用。另一方面，全球经济一体化也加速了金融市场的国际化进程，2008年金融危机的爆发给所有国家一个警示：在全球已经高度国际化的金融市场中，任何一个国家都不能独善其身。我国也一直在积极探索改革方式，主动适应并努力融入这种大浪潮之中，以保证、促进我国经济的更稳步发展。在此种背景之下，考察金融市场的发展情况对我国出口的影响，探讨融资约束对企业出口的影响，具有重要的现实意义。
本文首先从金融发展、融资约束与异质性企业这三个层面，对相关研究进行了综述。一方面，本文从理论的角度，在异质性企业模型的框架下，主要介绍了两个模型，它们分别从不同角度考察了融资约束与出口的关系：一个是以Chaney(2005)和Manova (2008)为代表的不完美合约模型；另一个是以Feenstra etal．(2013)为代表的不完全信息模型。另一方面，本文从实证的角度，分别针对国家区域层面的金融发展及企业层面的融资约束，对相关文献进行了综述。
笔者认为，现有的文献主要从汇率角度考察了金融市场国际化对出口的影响，这种考察方式过于单一。同时，由于缺乏相关数据，对于融资约束的考察与表示多利用企业的现金流和财务杠杆等指标，对区域金融发展的度量通常使用存贷款比等指标，但是很显然，这些指标的缺陷都在于它们均具有很强的内生性。基于以上两点，本文首次从外资银行进入的视角考察了金融市场国际化对出口的影响，同时，本文认为外资银行的进入对于金融市场的微观个体来说是一个外生的冲击。
本文分别从行业和企业两个层面，考察了外资银行进入以及外资银行发展规模对于产业出口、企业出口决策、企业出口额的影响。此外，本文还从所有制角度出发，考察了外资银行进入对面临不同融资约束的企业的出口的不同影响。全文基本结论如下：
（1）外资银行进入某一地区，将会显著地促进该地区各产业部门的出口，对金融脆弱性更高的产业来说这种促进作用更强。同时，外资银行在地区发展规模的扩大也会起到同样的作用。
（2）从企业层面来说，外资银行进入不仅会显著地提高企业的出口可能性，还会提高企业的出口额。对处于金融脆弱性更高的产业的企业来说，这种促进作用更强。
同时，本文分不同所有制企业进行了考察，对于私营企业、港澳台投资企业和外商投资企业来说，外资银行的进入将显著地促进这些企业的出口，而且这种促进作用对于处在外部融资依赖更强产业的企业作用更强；相反，对于国有企业和集体企业来说，外资银行进入对其出口的影响并不显著。外资银行在各地区发展规模的扩大也会起到同样的促进作用。
（3）为了更好地考察本文所研究的问题，本文创新性地将CSMAR数据库的相关上市公司从银行的借款数据与工业企业数据库合并。本文通过对数据的整理，发现企业都是首选在本地银行进行借款。同时，尽管外资银行贷款的次数偏少，但是贷款总额却在所有银行中排名靠前。通过严谨的计量分析，本文得出结论：随着企业从外资银行的借款的比率提高，出口额度也将显著地提升。
（4）根据本文的分析和结论，最后，本文有针对性地提出了相关政策建议，包括金融市场改革、消除所有制性质的信贷歧视。
本论文对现有文献的主要贡献有：
（1）本文开创性地从金融市场发展主体的角度，即外资银行的进入考察了中国金融市场的国际化发展对出口的影响，突破了现有文献对中国的研究分析局限于仅从汇率角度出发，从而使得该领域的研究更具多样性，使对现实情况的考察具有更多层次。
（2）在现有文献中，对金融发展和融资约束的表示指标都具有很大的内生性。而外资银行进入对个体企业来说却是一种不可预知的外生冲击。所以，为了在解决内生性这一问题上取得突破，本文创新性地引入外资银行进入这一外生冲击变量。同时，外资银行的进入将会扩宽融资渠道，增加银行业竞争，进而推动当地金融发展。此外，结合中国的具体国情，本文还从所有制的角度出发，考察了不同所有制企业的融资约束对其出口的影响是否不同。
（3）本文创新性地将CSMAR数据库的相关上市公司从银行借款的数据与工业企业数据库合并，从而获得企业从银行借款的具体信息。利用这些样本数据，本文将外资银行进入这一信息细化到企业层面，考察了企业从外资银行借款对企业出口的影响。
Since the Reform and Opening up, China has been a focus of the world attentionbecause of the economic accomplishment. The average of economic growth rate isdouble-digit, especially after China joined WTO, the international trade grows fast,which robustly support the expanding of China’s economy. However, with theexplosion of financial crisis2008, the export of China is exposed to unprecedentedchallenges and pressures. Export is facing challenges of severe external environment,and meanwhile is still criticized by domestic researchers and media, that the growth ofChina’s economy is too dependent on international trade. Although the governmentemphasizes that China should expand the domestic demand to improve the economicstructure, nobody can deny the importance of international trade to stabilize theeconomic growth. What’s more, the global economic integration promotes theinternationalization of financial market. The2008financial crisis warns every country,considering the internationalization of financial market, every country will be affectedto a certain extent. The Chinese government has been actively exploring the reformplan and adapting to the wave to insure that our steady and robust economic growth.Under this circumstances, there is a lot of practical meaning to investigate the impactof financial development on export, the effect of credit constrain on firm export.
The paper first summarizes related literatures in the view of financialdevelopment, credit constrain and heterogeneous firm. In the framework ofheterogeneous firm trade model, the paper mainly reviews two models. One is fromview of imperfect contract, represented by Chaney (2005) and Manova (2008). Theother is from view of incomplete information, represented by Feenstra et al．(2013).What’s more, the paper also summarizes related empirical papers.
In my opinion, most of the relevant paper is from the view of exchange ratevolatility to test the effect of financial internationalization on export. Meanwhile, dueto the scarcity of the data, mostly the variables denote credit constrain are cash flow orleverage, and the variables denote financial development is loans and deposits, which are obviously too endogenous. Based on the two points, in my paper, I firstly estimatethe effect of foreign bank entry to export. Meanwhile I agree that foreign bank entry isan exogenous shock to micro individual.
In view of industry and firm, this paper estimates the effect of foreign bank entryand foreign bank scale on industrial export, firm export decision, firm export intensity.What’s more, the paper analysis the effect to different ownership firm. The mainconclusions are as follows:
(1) The paper provides evidence that foreign bank entry significantly improvesthe export of every sector within provinces. The effect is stronger for the sectors withmore serious financial vulnerability. What’s more, the effect of the expansion offoreign banks is similar. The paper shows the robustness of the results by varioussamples, different financial vulnerability indexes and several econometrics methods.
(2) The paper provides evidence that foreign bank entry significantly improvesthe possibility of a firm being exporter and firm export intensity. The effect is strongerfor firms in the sectors with more serious financial vulnerability.
What’s more, the paper examines the effect in accordance of ownership. Forprivate firm, HongKong and Macao firm and foreign invested firm, foreign bank entrysignificantly improves the possibility of a firm being exporter. On the contrary, forstate owned firm and collective owned firm, the effect is not significant.
The expansion of foreign bank scale has similar effect.
(3) To figure out the research question more deeply, I originally merge theCSMAR dataset with the manufacturing firm dataset. I found that to loan from localbank is the first choice of most firms. The number of foreign bank loan is not so much,but the total amount of foreign bank loan is much. By serious econometrics analysis, Ifound that with the increase of rate of foreign bank loan, the export intensity impoves.
(4) Based on the analysis, at last the paper put forward some political suggestions,including financial market reform, eliminating the credit discrimination of ownership,and so on.
The paper contributes to the literature from the following aspects:
(1) The paper originally from the views of main entity of financial markets,foreign bank entry, estimates the financial internationalization on export. Most research about China is just in view of exchange rate. The diversity of this researchtopic is increased.
(2) Meanwhile, due to the scarcity of the data, mostly the variables denote creditconstrain are cash flow or leverage, and the variables denote financial development isloans and deposits, which are obviously too endogenous. Based on the two points, inmy paper, I firstly estimate the effect of foreign bank entry to export. Meanwhile Iagree that foreign bank entry is an exogenous shock to micro individual. What’s more,the paper examines the effect in accordance of ownership.
(3) In this paper, I originally merge the CSMAR dataset with the manufacturingfirm dataset. Then I get specific information of firm loans. Based on this data, theinformation of foreign bank entry is granular down to firm level, and I estimate theeffect of foreign bank loan on firm export.
本文首先从金融发展、融资约束与异质性企业这三个层面，对相关研究进行了综述。一方面，本文从理论的角度，在异质性企业模型的框架下，主要介绍了两个模型，它们分别从不同角度考察了融资约束与出口的关系：一个是以Chaney(2005)和Manova (2008)为代表的不完美合约模型；另一个是以Feenstra etal．(2013)为代表的不完全信息模型。另一方面，本文从实证的角度，分别针对国家区域层面的金融发展及企业层面的融资约束，对相关文献进行了综述。
笔者认为，现有的文献主要从汇率角度考察了金融市场国际化对出口的影响，这种考察方式过于单一。同时，由于缺乏相关数据，对于融资约束的考察与表示多利用企业的现金流和财务杠杆等指标，对区域金融发展的度量通常使用存贷款比等指标，但是很显然，这些指标的缺陷都在于它们均具有很强的内生性。基于以上两点，本文首次从外资银行进入的视角考察了金融市场国际化对出口的影响，同时，本文认为外资银行的进入对于金融市场的微观个体来说是一个外生的冲击。
本文分别从行业和企业两个层面，考察了外资银行进入以及外资银行发展规模对于产业出口、企业出口决策、企业出口额的影响。此外，本文还从所有制角度出发，考察了外资银行进入对面临不同融资约束的企业的出口的不同影响。全文基本结论如下：
（1）外资银行进入某一地区，将会显著地促进该地区各产业部门的出口，对金融脆弱性更高的产业来说这种促进作用更强。同时，外资银行在地区发展规模的扩大也会起到同样的作用。
（2）从企业层面来说，外资银行进入不仅会显著地提高企业的出口可能性，还会提高企业的出口额。对处于金融脆弱性更高的产业的企业来说，这种促进作用更强。
同时，本文分不同所有制企业进行了考察，对于私营企业、港澳台投资企业和外商投资企业来说，外资银行的进入将显著地促进这些企业的出口，而且这种促进作用对于处在外部融资依赖更强产业的企业作用更强；相反，对于国有企业和集体企业来说，外资银行进入对其出口的影响并不显著。外资银行在各地区发展规模的扩大也会起到同样的促进作用。
（3）为了更好地考察本文所研究的问题，本文创新性地将CSMAR数据库的相关上市公司从银行的借款数据与工业企业数据库合并。本文通过对数据的整理，发现企业都是首选在本地银行进行借款。同时，尽管外资银行贷款的次数偏少，但是贷款总额却在所有银行中排名靠前。通过严谨的计量分析，本文得出结论：随着企业从外资银行的借款的比率提高，出口额度也将显著地提升。
（4）根据本文的分析和结论，最后，本文有针对性地提出了相关政策建议，包括金融市场改革、消除所有制性质的信贷歧视。
本论文对现有文献的主要贡献有：
（1）本文开创性地从金融市场发展主体的角度，即外资银行的进入考察了中国金融市场的国际化发展对出口的影响，突破了现有文献对中国的研究分析局限于仅从汇率角度出发，从而使得该领域的研究更具多样性，使对现实情况的考察具有更多层次。
（2）在现有文献中，对金融发展和融资约束的表示指标都具有很大的内生性。而外资银行进入对个体企业来说却是一种不可预知的外生冲击。所以，为了在解决内生性这一问题上取得突破，本文创新性地引入外资银行进入这一外生冲击变量。同时，外资银行的进入将会扩宽融资渠道，增加银行业竞争，进而推动当地金融发展。此外，结合中国的具体国情，本文还从所有制的角度出发，考察了不同所有制企业的融资约束对其出口的影响是否不同。
（3）本文创新性地将CSMAR数据库的相关上市公司从银行借款的数据与工业企业数据库合并，从而获得企业从银行借款的具体信息。利用这些样本数据，本文将外资银行进入这一信息细化到企业层面，考察了企业从外资银行借款对企业出口的影响。
Since the Reform and Opening up, China has been a focus of the world attentionbecause of the economic accomplishment. The average of economic growth rate isdouble-digit, especially after China joined WTO, the international trade grows fast,which robustly support the expanding of China’s economy. However, with theexplosion of financial crisis2008, the export of China is exposed to unprecedentedchallenges and pressures. Export is facing challenges of severe external environment,and meanwhile is still criticized by domestic researchers and media, that the growth ofChina’s economy is too dependent on international trade. Although the governmentemphasizes that China should expand the domestic demand to improve the economicstructure, nobody can deny the importance of international trade to stabilize theeconomic growth. What’s more, the global economic integration promotes theinternationalization of financial market. The2008financial crisis warns every country,considering the internationalization of financial market, every country will be affectedto a certain extent. The Chinese government has been actively exploring the reformplan and adapting to the wave to insure that our steady and robust economic growth.Under this circumstances, there is a lot of practical meaning to investigate the impactof financial development on export, the effect of credit constrain on firm export.
The paper first summarizes related literatures in the view of financialdevelopment, credit constrain and heterogeneous firm. In the framework ofheterogeneous firm trade model, the paper mainly reviews two models. One is fromview of imperfect contract, represented by Chaney (2005) and Manova (2008). Theother is from view of incomplete information, represented by Feenstra et al．(2013).What’s more, the paper also summarizes related empirical papers.
In my opinion, most of the relevant paper is from the view of exchange ratevolatility to test the effect of financial internationalization on export. Meanwhile, dueto the scarcity of the data, mostly the variables denote credit constrain are cash flow orleverage, and the variables denote financial development is loans and deposits, which are obviously too endogenous. Based on the two points, in my paper, I firstly estimatethe effect of foreign bank entry to export. Meanwhile I agree that foreign bank entry isan exogenous shock to micro individual.
In view of industry and firm, this paper estimates the effect of foreign bank entryand foreign bank scale on industrial export, firm export decision, firm export intensity.What’s more, the paper analysis the effect to different ownership firm. The mainconclusions are as follows:
(1) The paper provides evidence that foreign bank entry significantly improvesthe export of every sector within provinces. The effect is stronger for the sectors withmore serious financial vulnerability. What’s more, the effect of the expansion offoreign banks is similar. The paper shows the robustness of the results by varioussamples, different financial vulnerability indexes and several econometrics methods.
(2) The paper provides evidence that foreign bank entry significantly improvesthe possibility of a firm being exporter and firm export intensity. The effect is strongerfor firms in the sectors with more serious financial vulnerability.
What’s more, the paper examines the effect in accordance of ownership. Forprivate firm, HongKong and Macao firm and foreign invested firm, foreign bank entrysignificantly improves the possibility of a firm being exporter. On the contrary, forstate owned firm and collective owned firm, the effect is not significant.
The expansion of foreign bank scale has similar effect.
(3) To figure out the research question more deeply, I originally merge theCSMAR dataset with the manufacturing firm dataset. I found that to loan from localbank is the first choice of most firms. The number of foreign bank loan is not so much,but the total amount of foreign bank loan is much. By serious econometrics analysis, Ifound that with the increase of rate of foreign bank loan, the export intensity impoves.
(4) Based on the analysis, at last the paper put forward some political suggestions,including financial market reform, eliminating the credit discrimination of ownership,and so on.
The paper contributes to the literature from the following aspects:
(1) The paper originally from the views of main entity of financial markets,foreign bank entry, estimates the financial internationalization on export. Most research about China is just in view of exchange rate. The diversity of this researchtopic is increased.
(2) Meanwhile, due to the scarcity of the data, mostly the variables denote creditconstrain are cash flow or leverage, and the variables denote financial development isloans and deposits, which are obviously too endogenous. Based on the two points, inmy paper, I firstly estimate the effect of foreign bank entry to export. Meanwhile Iagree that foreign bank entry is an exogenous shock to micro individual. What’s more,the paper examines the effect in accordance of ownership.
(3) In this paper, I originally merge the CSMAR dataset with the manufacturingfirm dataset. Then I get specific information of firm loans. Based on this data, theinformation of foreign bank entry is granular down to firm level, and I estimate theeffect of foreign bank loan on firm export.
引文
1http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2013-03/18/c_115055556.htm
2http://news.xinhuanet.com/2013-07/24/c_125060543.htm六项措施分别是：一是制定便利通关办法，抓紧出台“一次申报、一次查验、一次放行”改革方案，分步在全国口岸实行。二是整顿进出口环节经营性收费，减少行政事业性收费。暂免出口商品法定检验费用。减少法检商品种类，原则上工业制成品不再实行出口法检。抓紧研究法定检验体制改革方案。三是鼓励金融机构对有订单、有效益的企业及项目加大支持力度，发展短期出口信用保险业务，扩大保险规模。四是支持外贸综合服务企业为中小民营企业出口提供融资、通关、退税等服务。创造条件对服务出口实行零税率，逐步扩大服务进口。五是积极扩大商品进口，增加进口贴息资金规模。完善多种贸易方式，促进边境贸易。六是努力促进国际收支基本平衡，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。
3Claessens，S. and K. Tzioumis，2006，“Measuring Firms’Access to Finance”，World Bank and Brooking conference paper，mimeo.
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2http://news.xinhuanet.com/2013-07/24/c_125060543.htm六项措施分别是：一是制定便利通关办法，抓紧出台“一次申报、一次查验、一次放行”改革方案，分步在全国口岸实行。二是整顿进出口环节经营性收费，减少行政事业性收费。暂免出口商品法定检验费用。减少法检商品种类，原则上工业制成品不再实行出口法检。抓紧研究法定检验体制改革方案。三是鼓励金融机构对有订单、有效益的企业及项目加大支持力度，发展短期出口信用保险业务，扩大保险规模。四是支持外贸综合服务企业为中小民营企业出口提供融资、通关、退税等服务。创造条件对服务出口实行零税率，逐步扩大服务进口。五是积极扩大商品进口，增加进口贴息资金规模。完善多种贸易方式，促进边境贸易。六是努力促进国际收支基本平衡，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。
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