我国消费需求不足的计量分析和对策
|
摘要
我国经济保持了二十年的快速增长，上世纪90年代末期，我国国民经济发展过程中长期存在的短缺状态终告结束，取而代之的是产品过剩，有效需求不足的状态。从我国近几年经济的发展情况看，居民消费率过低、消费需求不足是造成经济非良性循环的直接原因。
只有不断扩大消费，才能拉动经济的持续增长。消费需求在以扩大国内需求来拉动宏观经济的过程中占有重要的地位，提高消费需求对于中国经济的持续、快速、稳定增长具有十分重要的作用。如何扩大国内需求，开拓国内市场，是关系我国未来发展全局的一个重大课题。中国有一个十二亿多人口的大市场，具有很大的发展潜力，也完全有可能在比较长的时期内保持比较快的增长速度。因此，无论是克服当前经济生活中的实际困难，还是着眼于下世纪的长远发展，我们都必须实行以扩大内需为主的发展方针。
因此研究居民消费行为的规律性，对于保证宏观经济的安全运行，有着深刻的现实意义。本文主要结合经济理论，从实证的角度对居民消费不足的原因进行了如下分析：
(一)分析中国居民消费的整体状况，然后分别分析城镇和农村居民的消费状况，从理论上分析了居民消费需求不足的原因。
(二)分别建立城镇居民和农村居民的收入和消费的线性模型，分析城镇居民和农村居民的边际消费倾向和弹性，对城镇和农村居民进行比较分析，分析产生的原因及对我国整体消费的影响。
(三)分别建立城镇居民和农村居民的平均消费倾向和表示全国贫富差距的基尼系数的线性模型，并且分别建立城镇居民平均消费倾向与城镇居民基尼系数和农村居民平均消费倾向与农村居民基尼系数模型，比较分析基尼系数对平均消费倾向的影响，分析产生的原因及对我国整体消费的影响。居民收入差距过大已成为当前我国经济发展过程中面临的一个无法回避的问题，特别是一些低收入居民的收入状况引起了全社会的普遍关注。
(四)研究居民消费和劳动力供给的关系。居民失业率可以直接反映劳动力
供给状况，因此可以从居民消费和失业率的关系分析劳动力供给的影响。
(五)分析社会保障制度和不确定性对我国消费的影响。上个世纪90年代
中期，我国社会保障制度改革进入了攻坚阶段，而社会保障制度关乎普通百姓的
生活，它直接影响着人们的心理预期，进而对消费产生影响。随着国有企业改革
的深入和劳动就业制度的推进，使得我国的就业形式变得非常严重，使得不确定
性增大，对消费产生了影响。
(六)对我国目前消费不足的状况给出对策及建议。城乡居民收入、居民收
入的增长速度、全国的贫富差距情况、社会保障制度的改革和劳动力供给都对我
国的消费需求造成了影响，但是它们对城镇居民和农村居民的影响程度是不同
的，所以要改善消费需求不足的状况必须分清主次，对各种情况区分对待。
The economy of our country has kept the fast growth of 20 years, in last century latter stage of the 1990s, and the shortage state of the evolution medium and long-term existence of our national economy comes to an end after all, and the substitute is the surplus of the products, the state that the effective demand is insufficient. By the look of economic development in recent years of our country, the low consumption rate of residents, and the insufficient consumption demand are the immediate cause causing economy not to circulate benignly.
Only expanding consumption constantly could spur economic lasting growth. The consumption demand occupies the important position during the process of spuring macroeconomy by expanding domestic demand, and the improvement of the consumption demand has very important function on the increasing continuously, fast, steadily of China's economy. How expand domestic demand, open up domestic market is to concern of our country in the future development a great subject of the overall situation. There is one of more than 1,200 million people's big markets in China that has very great development potentiality, and probably keep faster growth rate within longer period too. So, no matter overcome the real difficulty in the present economic life, or the long-term development focusing on next century, all of us must implement the developing policy specializing in expanding domestic demand. So study the regularity of resident's consumer behavior, to the safe operation guaranteeing the macroeconomy, which are deep realistic
meanings. This text combining the economic theory mainly, has carried on the following analysis to resident's reason under consumption in terms of real example:
(1) The paper analyses the whole state of the consumption of resident of China, then analyses the conditions of consumption of the cities and towns and rural resident respectively, and analyses the reason that residents have insufficient consumption demand theoretically.
(2) The paper sets up linear model of consumption and the incomes of urban residents and rural resident separately, and analyses the marginal propensity to consume and elasticity of urban residents and rural resident. Carry on comparative analysis to the cities and towns and rural resident, analyses the reason produced and impact on whole consumption of our country.
(3) The paper establishes the linear model of average propensity to consume and the Gini coefficient of expressing the national gap between rich and poor to urban residents and rural resident separately, and sets up the urban average propensity to consume and Gini coefficient models of urban residents. So as to the rural resident. The paper carries on impact on propensity to consume equally of Gini coefficient of comparative analysis, and analyses the reason produced and impact on whole consumption of our country. Resident's income big gap has already become a problem that can't be avoided faced in present economic evolution of our country, especially the income states of some low income residents have drawn common concern of the whole society.
(4) The paper analyses the relation between consumption of resident and the workforce supplies. Resident rate of unemployment can reflect workforce supply state, so can analyses influence that workforce supply from consumption of resident relation with rate of unemployment with directly.
(5) The paper analyses the social security system and uncertain impact on consumption of our country. In the middle period of the 1990s last century, the social security system reform of our country entered key stage, and the social security system concerns the life of ordinary common people. It is influencing people's psychological expectancy directly, and then exerts an influence in consuming. With the deepening of the SOE reform and promotion of the employment system, the employment form of our country is very serious, and uncertainty is increasing, and these have exerted an influence in consuming.
(6) The paper provides the countermeasure and sugges
只有不断扩大消费，才能拉动经济的持续增长。消费需求在以扩大国内需求来拉动宏观经济的过程中占有重要的地位，提高消费需求对于中国经济的持续、快速、稳定增长具有十分重要的作用。如何扩大国内需求，开拓国内市场，是关系我国未来发展全局的一个重大课题。中国有一个十二亿多人口的大市场，具有很大的发展潜力，也完全有可能在比较长的时期内保持比较快的增长速度。因此，无论是克服当前经济生活中的实际困难，还是着眼于下世纪的长远发展，我们都必须实行以扩大内需为主的发展方针。
因此研究居民消费行为的规律性，对于保证宏观经济的安全运行，有着深刻的现实意义。本文主要结合经济理论，从实证的角度对居民消费不足的原因进行了如下分析：
(一)分析中国居民消费的整体状况，然后分别分析城镇和农村居民的消费状况，从理论上分析了居民消费需求不足的原因。
(二)分别建立城镇居民和农村居民的收入和消费的线性模型，分析城镇居民和农村居民的边际消费倾向和弹性，对城镇和农村居民进行比较分析，分析产生的原因及对我国整体消费的影响。
(三)分别建立城镇居民和农村居民的平均消费倾向和表示全国贫富差距的基尼系数的线性模型，并且分别建立城镇居民平均消费倾向与城镇居民基尼系数和农村居民平均消费倾向与农村居民基尼系数模型，比较分析基尼系数对平均消费倾向的影响，分析产生的原因及对我国整体消费的影响。居民收入差距过大已成为当前我国经济发展过程中面临的一个无法回避的问题，特别是一些低收入居民的收入状况引起了全社会的普遍关注。
(四)研究居民消费和劳动力供给的关系。居民失业率可以直接反映劳动力
供给状况，因此可以从居民消费和失业率的关系分析劳动力供给的影响。
(五)分析社会保障制度和不确定性对我国消费的影响。上个世纪90年代
中期，我国社会保障制度改革进入了攻坚阶段，而社会保障制度关乎普通百姓的
生活，它直接影响着人们的心理预期，进而对消费产生影响。随着国有企业改革
的深入和劳动就业制度的推进，使得我国的就业形式变得非常严重，使得不确定
性增大，对消费产生了影响。
(六)对我国目前消费不足的状况给出对策及建议。城乡居民收入、居民收
入的增长速度、全国的贫富差距情况、社会保障制度的改革和劳动力供给都对我
国的消费需求造成了影响，但是它们对城镇居民和农村居民的影响程度是不同
的，所以要改善消费需求不足的状况必须分清主次，对各种情况区分对待。
The economy of our country has kept the fast growth of 20 years, in last century latter stage of the 1990s, and the shortage state of the evolution medium and long-term existence of our national economy comes to an end after all, and the substitute is the surplus of the products, the state that the effective demand is insufficient. By the look of economic development in recent years of our country, the low consumption rate of residents, and the insufficient consumption demand are the immediate cause causing economy not to circulate benignly.
Only expanding consumption constantly could spur economic lasting growth. The consumption demand occupies the important position during the process of spuring macroeconomy by expanding domestic demand, and the improvement of the consumption demand has very important function on the increasing continuously, fast, steadily of China's economy. How expand domestic demand, open up domestic market is to concern of our country in the future development a great subject of the overall situation. There is one of more than 1,200 million people's big markets in China that has very great development potentiality, and probably keep faster growth rate within longer period too. So, no matter overcome the real difficulty in the present economic life, or the long-term development focusing on next century, all of us must implement the developing policy specializing in expanding domestic demand. So study the regularity of resident's consumer behavior, to the safe operation guaranteeing the macroeconomy, which are deep realistic
meanings. This text combining the economic theory mainly, has carried on the following analysis to resident's reason under consumption in terms of real example:
(1) The paper analyses the whole state of the consumption of resident of China, then analyses the conditions of consumption of the cities and towns and rural resident respectively, and analyses the reason that residents have insufficient consumption demand theoretically.
(2) The paper sets up linear model of consumption and the incomes of urban residents and rural resident separately, and analyses the marginal propensity to consume and elasticity of urban residents and rural resident. Carry on comparative analysis to the cities and towns and rural resident, analyses the reason produced and impact on whole consumption of our country.
(3) The paper establishes the linear model of average propensity to consume and the Gini coefficient of expressing the national gap between rich and poor to urban residents and rural resident separately, and sets up the urban average propensity to consume and Gini coefficient models of urban residents. So as to the rural resident. The paper carries on impact on propensity to consume equally of Gini coefficient of comparative analysis, and analyses the reason produced and impact on whole consumption of our country. Resident's income big gap has already become a problem that can't be avoided faced in present economic evolution of our country, especially the income states of some low income residents have drawn common concern of the whole society.
(4) The paper analyses the relation between consumption of resident and the workforce supplies. Resident rate of unemployment can reflect workforce supply state, so can analyses influence that workforce supply from consumption of resident relation with rate of unemployment with directly.
(5) The paper analyses the social security system and uncertain impact on consumption of our country. In the middle period of the 1990s last century, the social security system reform of our country entered key stage, and the social security system concerns the life of ordinary common people. It is influencing people's psychological expectancy directly, and then exerts an influence in consuming. With the deepening of the SOE reform and promotion of the employment system, the employment form of our country is very serious, and uncertainty is increasing, and these have exerted an influence in consuming.
(6) The paper provides the countermeasure and sugges
引文
1．陈淮主编：《过剩经济》[M]，经济科学出版社，1998年版。
2．赵人伟，李实，卡尔．李思勤：《中国居民收入分配再研究》[M]，中国财政经济出版社，1999年版。
3．朱光磊：《中国的贫富差距与政府控制》[M]，上海三联书店，2002年版。
4．陈宗胜：《中国经济体制市场化进程研究》[M]，上海人民出版社，1999年版。
5．陈宗胜：《经济发展中的收入分配》[M]，上海人民出版社，1999年版。
6．陈宗胜：《改革、发展与收入分配》[M]，复旦大学出版社，1999年版。
7．赖德胜：《先富!共富?—中国转型时期的收入分配》[M]，湖北人民出版社，1999年版。
8．李子奈，叶阿忠：《高等计量经济学》[M]，清华大学出版社，2000年版。
9．陆懋祖：《高等时间序列经济计量学》[M]，上海人民出版社，1998年版。
10．威廉H．格林：《经济计量分析》[M]，中国社会科学出版社，1998年版。
11．王淑贤，白原平：《我国居民消费需求不足的主要原因》[J]，《山西财经大学学报》2001年第6期。
12．杨秀惠，田学斌：《居民消费需求不足的成因与对策》[J]，《财贸经济》2002年第11期。
13．杨德生：《对我国目前消费需求不足的成因分析》[J]，《统计预测》2002年第5期。
14．戴园晨：《调节收入分配的刺激作用和限度》[J]，《国民经济管理》2002年第4期。
15．高伶：《我国居民消费需求增长缓慢的主要因素分析》[J]，《经济师》2002年第5期。
16．吴易风：《从西方经济理论和政策看我国需求不足问题》，[J]，《宏观经济研究》2003年第2期。
17．李晓明：《城乡二元经济结构与中国经济增长》[J]，《北京工商大学学报》社科版，2002年第4期。
18．杭行：《中国居民收入分配差距扩大的原因及对策分析》，[J]《复旦学报》
社科版，2002年第2期。
19．王钰：《内需不足的原因及扩大内需的途径》[J]，《商业经济研究》，1999年第5期。
20．宋晓梧，高书生：《对当前城镇居民贫富状况的思考》[J]，《经济学家》，2000年第3期。
21．刘文斌：《收入差距对消费需求的制约》[J]，《经济学动态》2000年第9期。
22．冯子标、张问敏：《经济发展中的城镇贫困问题》[J]，《当代经济研究》1999年第2期。
23．田学斌：《当前我国居民消费需求不足的原因及其对策》[J]，《河北经贸大学学报》1999年第2期。
24．凯恩斯：《就业通论》[M]，徐毓丹译，商务印书馆1977年版。
25．王微：促进消费信贷发展的政策建议，《中国经济时报》1999年3月3日
26. Robert E. hall: The rational consumer, [M], The MIT press, 1990.
27. George G. Judge R. carter Bill Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics EM], John Wiley Publishing, 1982.
28. James D. Hamilton, Time Series Analysis[M], Princeton University Press, 1994.
29. Ando, A, and F. Modiglian. 1963. The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests [J]. American Economic Review 53:55-84.
30. Paxson, Christna H. (1992), Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand[J], The American Economic Review, vol. 82, no.1, March 1992.
31. Friedman, Benjamin M. et. al. (1992), Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates [J], The American Economic Review, vol. 82, no. 3, June 1992.
32. Wilcox, David, W. (1992), The Construction of U.S. Consumption Data: Some Facts and Their Implications for Empirical Work[J], The American Economic Review, vol. 82, no. 4, Sept. 1992.
2．赵人伟，李实，卡尔．李思勤：《中国居民收入分配再研究》[M]，中国财政经济出版社，1999年版。
3．朱光磊：《中国的贫富差距与政府控制》[M]，上海三联书店，2002年版。
4．陈宗胜：《中国经济体制市场化进程研究》[M]，上海人民出版社，1999年版。
5．陈宗胜：《经济发展中的收入分配》[M]，上海人民出版社，1999年版。
6．陈宗胜：《改革、发展与收入分配》[M]，复旦大学出版社，1999年版。
7．赖德胜：《先富!共富?—中国转型时期的收入分配》[M]，湖北人民出版社，1999年版。
8．李子奈，叶阿忠：《高等计量经济学》[M]，清华大学出版社，2000年版。
9．陆懋祖：《高等时间序列经济计量学》[M]，上海人民出版社，1998年版。
10．威廉H．格林：《经济计量分析》[M]，中国社会科学出版社，1998年版。
11．王淑贤，白原平：《我国居民消费需求不足的主要原因》[J]，《山西财经大学学报》2001年第6期。
12．杨秀惠，田学斌：《居民消费需求不足的成因与对策》[J]，《财贸经济》2002年第11期。
13．杨德生：《对我国目前消费需求不足的成因分析》[J]，《统计预测》2002年第5期。
14．戴园晨：《调节收入分配的刺激作用和限度》[J]，《国民经济管理》2002年第4期。
15．高伶：《我国居民消费需求增长缓慢的主要因素分析》[J]，《经济师》2002年第5期。
16．吴易风：《从西方经济理论和政策看我国需求不足问题》，[J]，《宏观经济研究》2003年第2期。
17．李晓明：《城乡二元经济结构与中国经济增长》[J]，《北京工商大学学报》社科版，2002年第4期。
18．杭行：《中国居民收入分配差距扩大的原因及对策分析》，[J]《复旦学报》
社科版，2002年第2期。
19．王钰：《内需不足的原因及扩大内需的途径》[J]，《商业经济研究》，1999年第5期。
20．宋晓梧，高书生：《对当前城镇居民贫富状况的思考》[J]，《经济学家》，2000年第3期。
21．刘文斌：《收入差距对消费需求的制约》[J]，《经济学动态》2000年第9期。
22．冯子标、张问敏：《经济发展中的城镇贫困问题》[J]，《当代经济研究》1999年第2期。
23．田学斌：《当前我国居民消费需求不足的原因及其对策》[J]，《河北经贸大学学报》1999年第2期。
24．凯恩斯：《就业通论》[M]，徐毓丹译，商务印书馆1977年版。
25．王微：促进消费信贷发展的政策建议，《中国经济时报》1999年3月3日
26. Robert E. hall: The rational consumer, [M], The MIT press, 1990.
27. George G. Judge R. carter Bill Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics EM], John Wiley Publishing, 1982.
28. James D. Hamilton, Time Series Analysis[M], Princeton University Press, 1994.
29. Ando, A, and F. Modiglian. 1963. The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests [J]. American Economic Review 53:55-84.
30. Paxson, Christna H. (1992), Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand[J], The American Economic Review, vol. 82, no.1, March 1992.
31. Friedman, Benjamin M. et. al. (1992), Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates [J], The American Economic Review, vol. 82, no. 3, June 1992.
32. Wilcox, David, W. (1992), The Construction of U.S. Consumption Data: Some Facts and Their Implications for Empirical Work[J], The American Economic Review, vol. 82, no. 4, Sept. 1992.