基于不同目标的城市污水处理项目投资方案评价研究
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摘要
近年来，随着我国城市污水处理厂的大量兴建，城市污水处理项目投资成为新的研究热点，从项目设计、工程投资、施工建设到污水厂运营和管理等，都作了大量的探索，但是对城市污水处理项目投资评价决策的理论研究较为滞后，现有的研究主要集中于项目经济和技术的评价。实际中，对新建城市污水处理项目而言，未来的污水运营成本和项目综合效益状况也将逐步成为左右城市污水处理项目投资决策的关键因素。同时，由于污水运营成本评价研究较少，以致至今未能形成完整的城市污水处理项目评价综合决策体系。为实现城市污水处理项目投资方案评价综合决策研究，论文从城市污水处理项目投资方案入手，以城市污水处理项目投资方案及其相应方案下所带来的各种风险为研究主线，分别建立了3个目标评价体系，即项目投资风险预测评价体系、污水运营成本预测评价体系和污水处理项目综合效益预测评价体系。现将主要研究内容和结论总结如下：
①城市污水处理项目投资风险预测评价研究
论文以城市污水处理项目投资风险为研究对象，建立了城市污水处理项目投资风险预测评价体系。通过对城市污水项目投资风险评价方法比较，选用了风险评估可靠、占用资源少和高效准确的蒙特卡洛模拟方法。研究发现，蒙特卡洛模拟方法在污水处理项目中应用较少，现有的研究中，未考虑将运营期满污水设备二次更新成作为投资风险变量之一，作为全寿命周期较长的城市污水处理项目，污水设备使用寿命一般约为10年，因此必须考虑运营期间污水设备二次更新带来的风险。在对内部收益率、投资回收期和净现值等评价指标对比分析后，选取了净现值作为评价指标，并据此建立了城市污水处理项目投资风险预测评价模型。
②污水运营成本预测评价研究
论文建立了城市污水运营成本预测评价体系。针对目前尚无较好的评价污水运营成本方法，根据西南地区城市污水厂的调研，提出了污染物耗氧当量处理费用评价方法，随后对该方法进行了实证研究，得出了污染物耗氧当量和污染物耗氧当量处理费用之间存在明显的负相关关系。运用该方法，论文完善了城市污水运营成本预测评价体系，实现了对污水厂污水运营成本的预测评价。在此过程中，阐述了污染物耗氧当量和污染物耗氧当量处理费用的定义，推导了污染物耗氧当量的计算原理，并运用污染物耗氧当量处理费用评价方法对西南地区37座污水厂污水运营成本进行评价，研究结果显示：29座污水厂污水运营成本正常、8座异常（3座偏低和5座偏高）。同时也进一步表明了，运用该方法建立的西南地区城市污水运营成本预测评价体系是可行的，它可以作为城市污水运营成本预测评价的方法。
③城市污水处理项目综合效益预测评价研究
城市污水处理项目综合效益评价包括现状评价和预测评价两类，现有的城市污水处理项目综合效益评价主要集中于现状评价，国内外尚无明显提出对污水处理项目综合效益进行预测评价。基于此，论文提出了城市污水处理项目综合效益预测评价体系，实现了对城市污水处理项目综合效益的预测评价。研究过程中，选用了模糊层次分析法作为城市污水处理项目综合效益预测评价方法，探讨了项目综合效益预测评价指标的选取原则，建立了3层5因素16个指标的污水处理项目综合效益预测评价指标层次分析模型，并将评价指标分为现状调查类和投资方案类两类，实现了项目综合效益的预测。在采用专家调查法和层次分析法对综合效益各项指标定权之后，依据各类指标建立的单因素评语集，建立了城市污水处理项目综合效益预测评价模型。
④城市污水处理项目投资方案评价综合决策
论文以项目投资风险预测评价、污水运营成本预测评价和综合效益预测评价为三大要素，构建了基于不同目标的城市污水处理项目投资方案评价综合决策理论框架。随后剖析了城市污水处理项目投资方案评价综合决策的基本原理，简述了其应用步骤，并阐述了项目投资风险预测评价、污水运营成本预测评价和污水处理项目综合效益预测评价分别在城市污水处理项目投资方案评价综合决策中的作用，最后结合以上理论体系，对重庆某县计划采用BOT模式建设一座城市污水处理厂为例，进行了案例综合分析。研究结果表明：采用方案一（A2O工艺），预测评价的结果为污水运营成本正常和项目综合效益为优，但项目投资风险较高；采用方案二（氧化沟工艺），投资风险较低、污水运营成本正常和综合效益为良好；采用方案三（SBR工艺），投资风险较低、综合效益良好，但未来的污水运营成本异常。因此，对采用BOT模式的项目投资公司而言，应选择项目投资风险低、污水运营预测成本正常的方案二（氧化沟工艺），更符合其投资意愿。
总之，基于不同目标的城市污水处理项目投资方案评价研究，不仅丰富了城市污水处理项目投资评价决策理论，而且也提供了一种科学、客观和全面的预测评价工具，对今后开展城市污水处项目投资研究，具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
In recent years, the investment of sewage treatment project had becomea hot research topic with a number of sewage treatment plant constructionin inChina.Experts and scholars had made a lot of research from project design, projectinvestment and construction to the operation and management of sewage treatment plant,but the research on urban sewage project investment evaluation decision obviouslylagged behind them. The investment risk evaluation basically of the project stayed theeconomic and technology. In fact, for the sewage treatment project to be built,the futuresewage cost and the comprehensive benefits of the project had gradually become also animportant factor of city sewage project investment decision. At the same time, becauselacking of the sewage cost evaluation method, that had not formed a completecomprehensive decision of urban sewage treatment project evaluation. In order toachieve the comprehensive decision of urban sewage treatment investment projectevaluation,the comprehensive decision system of urban sewage treatment investmentproject evaluation was established. The various kinds of risks were as the main line ofthe study, and project investment risk forecast evaluation system, the sewage operationcost prediction evaluation system and sewage treatment plant comprehensive benefitevaluation system were respectively built. The main research contents and conclusionswere summarized as follows:
①Urban sewage treatment project investment risk prediction evaluation research
The project investment risk of urban sewage treatment was as the object of study inthis paper, and the author analysed the impact of urban sewage treatment projectinvestment risk factors in great detail, used Monte Carlo risk assessment as reliable, lessresource occupied and highly efficient to carry on the simulationan alysis for urbansewage project investment risk analysis. The study found that Monte Carlo simulationmethod was seldom used in the sewage treatment project and sewage equipment secondupdate cost was not considered as investment risk variables in the past.as the urbansewage treatment project had a long investment cycle or more than twenty years, andsewage equipment life was generally about ten years.Therefore, sewage equipmentsecond update risk must be considered during the operation,and the forecast investmentrisk will be more objective, comprehensive and accurate than ever. Through comparingthe internal rate of return, the investment recovery period and the net present value evaluation index, the net present value was elected project investment risk evaluationindicators, and then the investment risk evaluation model of urban sewage treatmentproject was built.
②Urban sewage operation cost forecast evaluation research
This article set up the urban sewage operation cost forecast evaluation system thatrealized the prediction and evaluation on urban sewage operation cost. By the researchof urban sewage treatment plants in southwest China, the author put forword thecontaminant oxygen consumption equivalent treatment cost evaluation method. Andthen the method was conducted an empirical study. and it proved that obvious negativecorrelation between the pollutants oxygen consumption equivalent and its treatmentcosts. On this basis，the urban sewage operation cost prediction and evaluation systemwas built by the use of statistics analysis method,and then of sewage operating costs of37sewage treatment plants was evaluated.Research results shew that the operating costsof29plants was normal but8was abnormal (among them,3low and5high).At thesame time,it also proved that the pollutant oxygen consumption equivalent treatmentcost evaluation method can effectively evaluate the sewage operation cost. According tothe forecast evaluation system,urban sewage cost in southwest China established wasfeasible. This evaluation method can be used as a prediction evaluation decision methodof the urban sewage treatment operation cost.
③Urban sewage treatment project comprehensive benefit prediction evaluationresearch
The urban sewage treatment project comprehensive benefit forecast evaluationsystem included status evaluation and forecast evaluation. At present, this system hadnot been clearly proposed at home and abroad. Therefore,this paper presented thecomprehensive benefit forecast evaluation ideas.Through the comparison of variousmethods, fuzzy AHP that combined AHP with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methodwas selected as the analysis method of urban sewage project treatment evaluation andprediction. Then, the steps of urban sewage treatment comprehensive benefits predictionevaluation system were discussed, and then analysis model of16indexes in3layers of5factors was built according to the fuzzy AHP method. In order to realize the predictionof urban sewage treatment plant comprehensive benefit indexes, and the comprehensivebenefit evaluation indexes were divided into investigation index and investment planindex.And their evaluation set was established. Finally, the paper fixed weight of theindicators of the comprehensive benefit by Delphi method and AHP, and set up the comprehensive benefit evaluation model of urban sewage treatment project.
④the comprehensive decision research of urban sewage treatment projectinvestment evaluation
The comprehensive decision of city sewage treatment project investment schemeevaluation based on different targets was established,and it included three elementssuch as project investment risk predictive evaluation, sewage operation cost predictionevaluation and comprehensive benefit evaluation. Susequently, the basic principle wasanalyzed project investment scheme evaluation comprehensive decision-making,andthen its application steps of were briefly described.On this basis, and the projectinvestment risk evaluation’s role was illustrated in the city sewage treatment projectevaluation and decision-making system as well as wastewater operation cost forecastevaluation and comprehensive benefit evaluation prediction of sewage treatment plant.According to the research of comprehensive evaluation decision system of urbansewage treatment investment scheme, and taking the sewage treatment plant of a countyof Chong qing as an example to conduct a comprehensive analysis, the results was asfollow. As using A2O process scheme,the project had higher investment risk but normaloperating costs and good comprehensive benefits.As using the second scheme oroxidation ditch process, had relatively low investment risk, normal sewage operatingcosts,and good comprehensive benefits. As using the third scheme or SBR process,theproject had relatively low investment risk but the abnormal sewage cost and lowcomprehensive benefit. Therefore, for the investment company should choosethe second scheme or oxidation ditch process,because it had lower investment risk andnormal sewage operating costs among of three investment plans.
In conclusion, the comprehensive decision research of urban sewage treatmentinvestment scheme comprehensive evaluation not only enriched the investmentevaluation and decision-making theory of urban sewage treatment project but alsoprovided one more scientific, objective and comprehensive prediction evaluationtool.Therefore, this research on the urban sewage treatment project investment in thispaper today had important theoretical and practical significance.
①城市污水处理项目投资风险预测评价研究
论文以城市污水处理项目投资风险为研究对象，建立了城市污水处理项目投资风险预测评价体系。通过对城市污水项目投资风险评价方法比较，选用了风险评估可靠、占用资源少和高效准确的蒙特卡洛模拟方法。研究发现，蒙特卡洛模拟方法在污水处理项目中应用较少，现有的研究中，未考虑将运营期满污水设备二次更新成作为投资风险变量之一，作为全寿命周期较长的城市污水处理项目，污水设备使用寿命一般约为10年，因此必须考虑运营期间污水设备二次更新带来的风险。在对内部收益率、投资回收期和净现值等评价指标对比分析后，选取了净现值作为评价指标，并据此建立了城市污水处理项目投资风险预测评价模型。
②污水运营成本预测评价研究
论文建立了城市污水运营成本预测评价体系。针对目前尚无较好的评价污水运营成本方法，根据西南地区城市污水厂的调研，提出了污染物耗氧当量处理费用评价方法，随后对该方法进行了实证研究，得出了污染物耗氧当量和污染物耗氧当量处理费用之间存在明显的负相关关系。运用该方法，论文完善了城市污水运营成本预测评价体系，实现了对污水厂污水运营成本的预测评价。在此过程中，阐述了污染物耗氧当量和污染物耗氧当量处理费用的定义，推导了污染物耗氧当量的计算原理，并运用污染物耗氧当量处理费用评价方法对西南地区37座污水厂污水运营成本进行评价，研究结果显示：29座污水厂污水运营成本正常、8座异常（3座偏低和5座偏高）。同时也进一步表明了，运用该方法建立的西南地区城市污水运营成本预测评价体系是可行的，它可以作为城市污水运营成本预测评价的方法。
③城市污水处理项目综合效益预测评价研究
城市污水处理项目综合效益评价包括现状评价和预测评价两类，现有的城市污水处理项目综合效益评价主要集中于现状评价，国内外尚无明显提出对污水处理项目综合效益进行预测评价。基于此，论文提出了城市污水处理项目综合效益预测评价体系，实现了对城市污水处理项目综合效益的预测评价。研究过程中，选用了模糊层次分析法作为城市污水处理项目综合效益预测评价方法，探讨了项目综合效益预测评价指标的选取原则，建立了3层5因素16个指标的污水处理项目综合效益预测评价指标层次分析模型，并将评价指标分为现状调查类和投资方案类两类，实现了项目综合效益的预测。在采用专家调查法和层次分析法对综合效益各项指标定权之后，依据各类指标建立的单因素评语集，建立了城市污水处理项目综合效益预测评价模型。
④城市污水处理项目投资方案评价综合决策
论文以项目投资风险预测评价、污水运营成本预测评价和综合效益预测评价为三大要素，构建了基于不同目标的城市污水处理项目投资方案评价综合决策理论框架。随后剖析了城市污水处理项目投资方案评价综合决策的基本原理，简述了其应用步骤，并阐述了项目投资风险预测评价、污水运营成本预测评价和污水处理项目综合效益预测评价分别在城市污水处理项目投资方案评价综合决策中的作用，最后结合以上理论体系，对重庆某县计划采用BOT模式建设一座城市污水处理厂为例，进行了案例综合分析。研究结果表明：采用方案一（A2O工艺），预测评价的结果为污水运营成本正常和项目综合效益为优，但项目投资风险较高；采用方案二（氧化沟工艺），投资风险较低、污水运营成本正常和综合效益为良好；采用方案三（SBR工艺），投资风险较低、综合效益良好，但未来的污水运营成本异常。因此，对采用BOT模式的项目投资公司而言，应选择项目投资风险低、污水运营预测成本正常的方案二（氧化沟工艺），更符合其投资意愿。
总之，基于不同目标的城市污水处理项目投资方案评价研究，不仅丰富了城市污水处理项目投资评价决策理论，而且也提供了一种科学、客观和全面的预测评价工具，对今后开展城市污水处项目投资研究，具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
In recent years, the investment of sewage treatment project had becomea hot research topic with a number of sewage treatment plant constructionin inChina.Experts and scholars had made a lot of research from project design, projectinvestment and construction to the operation and management of sewage treatment plant,but the research on urban sewage project investment evaluation decision obviouslylagged behind them. The investment risk evaluation basically of the project stayed theeconomic and technology. In fact, for the sewage treatment project to be built,the futuresewage cost and the comprehensive benefits of the project had gradually become also animportant factor of city sewage project investment decision. At the same time, becauselacking of the sewage cost evaluation method, that had not formed a completecomprehensive decision of urban sewage treatment project evaluation. In order toachieve the comprehensive decision of urban sewage treatment investment projectevaluation,the comprehensive decision system of urban sewage treatment investmentproject evaluation was established. The various kinds of risks were as the main line ofthe study, and project investment risk forecast evaluation system, the sewage operationcost prediction evaluation system and sewage treatment plant comprehensive benefitevaluation system were respectively built. The main research contents and conclusionswere summarized as follows:
①Urban sewage treatment project investment risk prediction evaluation research
The project investment risk of urban sewage treatment was as the object of study inthis paper, and the author analysed the impact of urban sewage treatment projectinvestment risk factors in great detail, used Monte Carlo risk assessment as reliable, lessresource occupied and highly efficient to carry on the simulationan alysis for urbansewage project investment risk analysis. The study found that Monte Carlo simulationmethod was seldom used in the sewage treatment project and sewage equipment secondupdate cost was not considered as investment risk variables in the past.as the urbansewage treatment project had a long investment cycle or more than twenty years, andsewage equipment life was generally about ten years.Therefore, sewage equipmentsecond update risk must be considered during the operation,and the forecast investmentrisk will be more objective, comprehensive and accurate than ever. Through comparingthe internal rate of return, the investment recovery period and the net present value evaluation index, the net present value was elected project investment risk evaluationindicators, and then the investment risk evaluation model of urban sewage treatmentproject was built.
②Urban sewage operation cost forecast evaluation research
This article set up the urban sewage operation cost forecast evaluation system thatrealized the prediction and evaluation on urban sewage operation cost. By the researchof urban sewage treatment plants in southwest China, the author put forword thecontaminant oxygen consumption equivalent treatment cost evaluation method. Andthen the method was conducted an empirical study. and it proved that obvious negativecorrelation between the pollutants oxygen consumption equivalent and its treatmentcosts. On this basis，the urban sewage operation cost prediction and evaluation systemwas built by the use of statistics analysis method,and then of sewage operating costs of37sewage treatment plants was evaluated.Research results shew that the operating costsof29plants was normal but8was abnormal (among them,3low and5high).At thesame time,it also proved that the pollutant oxygen consumption equivalent treatmentcost evaluation method can effectively evaluate the sewage operation cost. According tothe forecast evaluation system,urban sewage cost in southwest China established wasfeasible. This evaluation method can be used as a prediction evaluation decision methodof the urban sewage treatment operation cost.
③Urban sewage treatment project comprehensive benefit prediction evaluationresearch
The urban sewage treatment project comprehensive benefit forecast evaluationsystem included status evaluation and forecast evaluation. At present, this system hadnot been clearly proposed at home and abroad. Therefore,this paper presented thecomprehensive benefit forecast evaluation ideas.Through the comparison of variousmethods, fuzzy AHP that combined AHP with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methodwas selected as the analysis method of urban sewage project treatment evaluation andprediction. Then, the steps of urban sewage treatment comprehensive benefits predictionevaluation system were discussed, and then analysis model of16indexes in3layers of5factors was built according to the fuzzy AHP method. In order to realize the predictionof urban sewage treatment plant comprehensive benefit indexes, and the comprehensivebenefit evaluation indexes were divided into investigation index and investment planindex.And their evaluation set was established. Finally, the paper fixed weight of theindicators of the comprehensive benefit by Delphi method and AHP, and set up the comprehensive benefit evaluation model of urban sewage treatment project.
④the comprehensive decision research of urban sewage treatment projectinvestment evaluation
The comprehensive decision of city sewage treatment project investment schemeevaluation based on different targets was established,and it included three elementssuch as project investment risk predictive evaluation, sewage operation cost predictionevaluation and comprehensive benefit evaluation. Susequently, the basic principle wasanalyzed project investment scheme evaluation comprehensive decision-making,andthen its application steps of were briefly described.On this basis, and the projectinvestment risk evaluation’s role was illustrated in the city sewage treatment projectevaluation and decision-making system as well as wastewater operation cost forecastevaluation and comprehensive benefit evaluation prediction of sewage treatment plant.According to the research of comprehensive evaluation decision system of urbansewage treatment investment scheme, and taking the sewage treatment plant of a countyof Chong qing as an example to conduct a comprehensive analysis, the results was asfollow. As using A2O process scheme,the project had higher investment risk but normaloperating costs and good comprehensive benefits.As using the second scheme oroxidation ditch process, had relatively low investment risk, normal sewage operatingcosts,and good comprehensive benefits. As using the third scheme or SBR process,theproject had relatively low investment risk but the abnormal sewage cost and lowcomprehensive benefit. Therefore, for the investment company should choosethe second scheme or oxidation ditch process,because it had lower investment risk andnormal sewage operating costs among of three investment plans.
In conclusion, the comprehensive decision research of urban sewage treatmentinvestment scheme comprehensive evaluation not only enriched the investmentevaluation and decision-making theory of urban sewage treatment project but alsoprovided one more scientific, objective and comprehensive prediction evaluationtool.Therefore, this research on the urban sewage treatment project investment in thispaper today had important theoretical and practical significance.
引文
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