不确定条件下散装液体化学品船安全评价方法及应用研究
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摘要
散装液体化学品船运输是交通运输业中的细分领域,它主要服务于石油化工、煤化工和无机化学工业生产和消费过程中的物流环节,这些工业部门在整个国民经济中起着举足轻重的作用,不仅与人民群众的日常生活息息相关,更对国家的基础建设、国防建设至关重要;另一方面,散装液体化学品船运输作为航运市场中一个特殊而高危的细分领域,其在货物装卸、换货洗舱、人员保护等方面较其他大多数种类的水路运输方式更为复杂,而其潜在发生事故的波及面和破坏性也是普通水路运输方式无法相比的,因此,对散装液体化学品船的安全研究不仅具有很大的理论意义更具有很大的现实意义。
不确定因素与散装液体化学品船的安全关系密切,如何在不确定条件下进行安全评价是散装液体化学品船安全评价中的难点,而已有的相关研究多停留在经验总结的基础上,缺少足够的理论支撑。如何在该问题上创新和突破是本论文的重点。
论文主要包括以下几个方面的内容:
(1)散装液体化学品船安全评价方法论问题
本论文在综合安全评价方法(FSA)的基础上,充分考虑散装液体化学品船在船舶和船员文件完备性、船舶布置合理性、船上设备完好性、人员和船舶的安全保障性和环境友好性方面的特点,通过对综合安全评价方法多层次的改进,将事件树分析法、海事风险矩阵分析法、RIDs方法、熵值法应用于模型的改进中,进而提出散装液体化学品船安全评价方法模型(Bulk Chemical Tanker Safety Assessment,CTSA)。
通过对CTSA模型的研究,本论文分析了散装液体化学品船风险要素问题,得出散装液体化学品船单船风险要素集中在散装液体化学品船法定船舶证书和行业要求资料、散装液体化学品船法定船员证书和行业要求资料、船桥功能管理、系泊、化学品货物操作、机舱功能管理、有毒易燃物质作业安全、防毒防爆和人员防护、防火和消防、救生、环境保护、保安、船体和上层建筑、船舶生活区14个方面的结论。
通过基于网络的安全评价程序对CTSA模型进行应用,本论文还研究了基于CTSA模型的散装液体化学品船安全检查表的建构问题,并对检查表的内容做了深入的规范分析。
(2)不确定条件下数据融合问题
在不确定条件下进行安全评价一直是散装液体化学品船安全领域的难点,本论文提出可通过应用不确定性推理方法解决目前阶段散装液体化学船安全评价领域的这个瓶颈。在比较处理不确定性的各种常用理论方法后,本论文提出可在充分考虑Dempster-Shafer证据理论(以下称D-S证据理论)的悖论问题和适用性检验方法的前提下,将D-S证据理论应用于不确定条件下散装液体化学品船安全评价中,最终计算求得散装液体化学品船安全评价指数。
由于不确定性存在模糊性、不完整性、不完备性和随机性的多属性特征,针对封闭识别框架下数据融合无法很好涵盖多属性的问题,本论文通过对识别框架的拓展,建构开放识别框架下的不确定性数据融合算法。
(3)安全评价效果的验证问题
如何对安全评价方法应用效果进行验证是理论和实践上难点,本论文通过建立大船模型和小船模型,采用特定选船机制,对业内专家上船的主观评价进行反馈分析,将其与算法计算出的安全评价结论进行对比分析,得出评价效果的验证结论。
本论文的创新点主要表现在:
1.在被证明具有较高普适性和通用性的FSA模型的基础上,建构适用于散装液体化学品船安全领域的CSTA模型,建立关于散装液体化学品船的风险识别、风险分析方法,并提出了开放安全文档机制的概念。
2.应用D-S证据理论的合成规则,合成基于CTSA模型的散装液体化学品船安全模型框架中不同数据来源的基本信任分配函数分配值,不仅求得了综合考虑单船和岸基管理的散装液体化学品船安全评价指数,还解决了在不确定条件下散装液体化学品船安全评价指数难以计算的问题。
3.对D-S证据理论中的封闭识别框架进行拓展,通过引入开放识别框架,从理论层面阐述散装液体化学品船安全评价中指标不完备性现象,并通过构造调整系数的方面,解决散装液体化学品船安全评价中数据合成不完备性问题。
Bulk chemical tankers transportation is the subsidiary market in the traffic and transportation market. It serves the logistics of the production and consuming in the petroleum industry, coal industry and inorganic chemistry industry etc. These industries play very important roles not only for people’s living but also for national security. However, bulk chemical tankers transportation is the market with high danger and complication. The operation process of the bulk chemical tankers need more deliberation especially in loading, discharging and the hold washing. Besides, the safety training and safety equipment preparing are more indispensable for bulk chemical tankers. Once accident happen to the bulk chemical tankers, the destroy effect would be much more serious than other kind of maritime accident. Briefly, the research the safety of bulk chemical tankers has great significance both in theory and in practice.
Uncertainty has high influence on the safety of bulk chemical tanker. How to make safety assessment for bulk chemical tanker is difficult point in the industry. The current research focus on the expert’s experience on board, which is lack of the theory support. Safety assessment of bulk chemical tanker under uncertainty is the main topic which will be research in this dissertation.
The main results achieved in this dissertation are as follows:
(1) The approach of safety assessment to bulk chemical tanker
This dissertation design a new safety approach, named bulk Chemical Tanker Safety Assessment (CTSA), basing on the formal safety assessment (FSA), which concerns the features of bulk chemical tankers. By using of the ETA method, regulatory influence diagrams, maritime hazard matrix and entropy value method, the CTSA approach is proved be more effect than FSA approach.
A result of application of CTSA approach is hazard elements of bulk chemical tankers. There are 14 hazard elements for single vessel including chemical tanker’s certification, manning management and personnel on chemical tanker, bridge management, mooring, chemical cargo operations, engine department management, danger operational safety, health safety and personnel protection, firefighting, lifesaving, environmental protection, security, hull, accommodation.
Another result of application of CTSA approach is trial safety checklist design of bulk chemical tankers.
(2) Data fusion under uncertainty
How to fuse data form safety assessment under uncertainty is difficult point in the safety area of bulk chemical tanker. Comparing with several theories of data fusing, this dissertation takes advantage of Dempster-Shafer theory to solve the problem. Besides, the range of suitable for using and paradox problem is also analyzed. Finally, a safety index of bulk chemical tanker is calculated.
There are four kinds of uncertainty relating with maritime affairs, which are uncertainty of fuzzy, uncertainty of uncompleted, uncertainty of unascertainment and uncertainty of random. Dempster-Shafer theory could help to solve the data fusing problem caused by uncertainty of uncompleted but hard to solve the data fusing problem caused by uncertainty of unascertainment. Thus it is necessary to extend the close frame discernment to open frame discernment in Dempster-Shafer theory.
(3)Test of safety index of bulk chemical tanker
It is difficult point to evaluate the result of safety assessment. Thus, this dissertation designs an approach to test the safety index of bulk chemical tanker. In the first place, large vessel model and small vessel model are defined. Then by using of sampling step, two bulk chemical tankers are confirmed. Experts are sent to these two vessels and get the subjective comments. Comparing the result of safety index with the subjective comments, the approach of data fusion is tested.
Compared with the previous studies by other researchers in the world, the main innovations and contributions of this dissertation can be summarized as following three points:
1. Basing on the formal safety assessment (FSA) model, which has been widely used in many areas. A new approaches i.e. bulk Chemical Tanker Safety Assessment (CTSA) which is more suitable in the bulk chemical tanker transportation is designed. Besides, the concept of open safety document is defined.
2. Take advantage of Dempster-Shafer theory, an algorithm of safety index for the bulk chemical tanker is designed, which hasn’t be solved by current researches.
3. For solving the data fusing problem caused by uncertainty of unascertainment, extending from close frame discernment to open frame discernment in Dempster-Shafer theory is achieved.
不确定因素与散装液体化学品船的安全关系密切,如何在不确定条件下进行安全评价是散装液体化学品船安全评价中的难点,而已有的相关研究多停留在经验总结的基础上,缺少足够的理论支撑。如何在该问题上创新和突破是本论文的重点。
论文主要包括以下几个方面的内容:
(1)散装液体化学品船安全评价方法论问题
本论文在综合安全评价方法(FSA)的基础上,充分考虑散装液体化学品船在船舶和船员文件完备性、船舶布置合理性、船上设备完好性、人员和船舶的安全保障性和环境友好性方面的特点,通过对综合安全评价方法多层次的改进,将事件树分析法、海事风险矩阵分析法、RIDs方法、熵值法应用于模型的改进中,进而提出散装液体化学品船安全评价方法模型(Bulk Chemical Tanker Safety Assessment,CTSA)。
通过对CTSA模型的研究,本论文分析了散装液体化学品船风险要素问题,得出散装液体化学品船单船风险要素集中在散装液体化学品船法定船舶证书和行业要求资料、散装液体化学品船法定船员证书和行业要求资料、船桥功能管理、系泊、化学品货物操作、机舱功能管理、有毒易燃物质作业安全、防毒防爆和人员防护、防火和消防、救生、环境保护、保安、船体和上层建筑、船舶生活区14个方面的结论。
通过基于网络的安全评价程序对CTSA模型进行应用,本论文还研究了基于CTSA模型的散装液体化学品船安全检查表的建构问题,并对检查表的内容做了深入的规范分析。
(2)不确定条件下数据融合问题
在不确定条件下进行安全评价一直是散装液体化学品船安全领域的难点,本论文提出可通过应用不确定性推理方法解决目前阶段散装液体化学船安全评价领域的这个瓶颈。在比较处理不确定性的各种常用理论方法后,本论文提出可在充分考虑Dempster-Shafer证据理论(以下称D-S证据理论)的悖论问题和适用性检验方法的前提下,将D-S证据理论应用于不确定条件下散装液体化学品船安全评价中,最终计算求得散装液体化学品船安全评价指数。
由于不确定性存在模糊性、不完整性、不完备性和随机性的多属性特征,针对封闭识别框架下数据融合无法很好涵盖多属性的问题,本论文通过对识别框架的拓展,建构开放识别框架下的不确定性数据融合算法。
(3)安全评价效果的验证问题
如何对安全评价方法应用效果进行验证是理论和实践上难点,本论文通过建立大船模型和小船模型,采用特定选船机制,对业内专家上船的主观评价进行反馈分析,将其与算法计算出的安全评价结论进行对比分析,得出评价效果的验证结论。
本论文的创新点主要表现在:
1.在被证明具有较高普适性和通用性的FSA模型的基础上,建构适用于散装液体化学品船安全领域的CSTA模型,建立关于散装液体化学品船的风险识别、风险分析方法,并提出了开放安全文档机制的概念。
2.应用D-S证据理论的合成规则,合成基于CTSA模型的散装液体化学品船安全模型框架中不同数据来源的基本信任分配函数分配值,不仅求得了综合考虑单船和岸基管理的散装液体化学品船安全评价指数,还解决了在不确定条件下散装液体化学品船安全评价指数难以计算的问题。
3.对D-S证据理论中的封闭识别框架进行拓展,通过引入开放识别框架,从理论层面阐述散装液体化学品船安全评价中指标不完备性现象,并通过构造调整系数的方面,解决散装液体化学品船安全评价中数据合成不完备性问题。
Bulk chemical tankers transportation is the subsidiary market in the traffic and transportation market. It serves the logistics of the production and consuming in the petroleum industry, coal industry and inorganic chemistry industry etc. These industries play very important roles not only for people’s living but also for national security. However, bulk chemical tankers transportation is the market with high danger and complication. The operation process of the bulk chemical tankers need more deliberation especially in loading, discharging and the hold washing. Besides, the safety training and safety equipment preparing are more indispensable for bulk chemical tankers. Once accident happen to the bulk chemical tankers, the destroy effect would be much more serious than other kind of maritime accident. Briefly, the research the safety of bulk chemical tankers has great significance both in theory and in practice.
Uncertainty has high influence on the safety of bulk chemical tanker. How to make safety assessment for bulk chemical tanker is difficult point in the industry. The current research focus on the expert’s experience on board, which is lack of the theory support. Safety assessment of bulk chemical tanker under uncertainty is the main topic which will be research in this dissertation.
The main results achieved in this dissertation are as follows:
(1) The approach of safety assessment to bulk chemical tanker
This dissertation design a new safety approach, named bulk Chemical Tanker Safety Assessment (CTSA), basing on the formal safety assessment (FSA), which concerns the features of bulk chemical tankers. By using of the ETA method, regulatory influence diagrams, maritime hazard matrix and entropy value method, the CTSA approach is proved be more effect than FSA approach.
A result of application of CTSA approach is hazard elements of bulk chemical tankers. There are 14 hazard elements for single vessel including chemical tanker’s certification, manning management and personnel on chemical tanker, bridge management, mooring, chemical cargo operations, engine department management, danger operational safety, health safety and personnel protection, firefighting, lifesaving, environmental protection, security, hull, accommodation.
Another result of application of CTSA approach is trial safety checklist design of bulk chemical tankers.
(2) Data fusion under uncertainty
How to fuse data form safety assessment under uncertainty is difficult point in the safety area of bulk chemical tanker. Comparing with several theories of data fusing, this dissertation takes advantage of Dempster-Shafer theory to solve the problem. Besides, the range of suitable for using and paradox problem is also analyzed. Finally, a safety index of bulk chemical tanker is calculated.
There are four kinds of uncertainty relating with maritime affairs, which are uncertainty of fuzzy, uncertainty of uncompleted, uncertainty of unascertainment and uncertainty of random. Dempster-Shafer theory could help to solve the data fusing problem caused by uncertainty of uncompleted but hard to solve the data fusing problem caused by uncertainty of unascertainment. Thus it is necessary to extend the close frame discernment to open frame discernment in Dempster-Shafer theory.
(3)Test of safety index of bulk chemical tanker
It is difficult point to evaluate the result of safety assessment. Thus, this dissertation designs an approach to test the safety index of bulk chemical tanker. In the first place, large vessel model and small vessel model are defined. Then by using of sampling step, two bulk chemical tankers are confirmed. Experts are sent to these two vessels and get the subjective comments. Comparing the result of safety index with the subjective comments, the approach of data fusion is tested.
Compared with the previous studies by other researchers in the world, the main innovations and contributions of this dissertation can be summarized as following three points:
1. Basing on the formal safety assessment (FSA) model, which has been widely used in many areas. A new approaches i.e. bulk Chemical Tanker Safety Assessment (CTSA) which is more suitable in the bulk chemical tanker transportation is designed. Besides, the concept of open safety document is defined.
2. Take advantage of Dempster-Shafer theory, an algorithm of safety index for the bulk chemical tanker is designed, which hasn’t be solved by current researches.
3. For solving the data fusing problem caused by uncertainty of unascertainment, extending from close frame discernment to open frame discernment in Dempster-Shafer theory is achieved.
引文
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