中国的东亚市场提供者地位研究
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摘要
上世纪60年代以来,东亚各经济体先后实施了出口导向型经济增长模式,出口导向型经济增长模式极大地促进了东亚地区经济发展。然而,随着东亚生产能力的不断提升,东亚出口导向型经济增长模式越来越受到外部市场的约束。要改变这一状况,东亚各经济体必须从依赖欧美发达国家市场转向依赖区域内市场,并逐步形成东亚区域内市场提供者。中国是东亚区域内日益崛起的大国,中国的国内市场潜力巨大,目前中国已经初步具备了成为东亚市场提供者的条件。中国的东亚市场提供者地位不仅能为中国带来国内稀缺的生产要素,增强国内企业创新能力,而且有利于降低东亚各经济体对欧美发达国家市场的依赖,从而稳定东亚区域经济,反过来为中国经济发展提供稳定的区域环境,进而推动中国经济持续发展。因此,研究中国的东亚市场提供者地位问题具有重要的现实意义。
本文综合运用了历史与动态、规范与实证的分析方法,从以下几方面对中国的东亚市场提供者地位进行了详细的剖析：(1)中国从东亚进口贸易发展概况及演变；(2)中国与美国的东亚市场提供者地位的比较；(3)中国的东亚市场提供者地位对中国的影响；(4)中国的东亚市场提供者地位对东亚的影响；(5)中国的东亚市场提供者地位的发展趋势；(6)结论与政策建议。
美国、日本和中国目前对东亚影响最大。二战后,美国奉行自由贸易政策,并对东亚开放国内市场,按进口占东亚出口总额的比重衡量,美国一直是东亚最大的市场提供者。二战后,日本的东亚市场提供者地位迅速提升,但是由于国内市场规模的限制,日本无法取代美国成为东亚最大的市场提供者。1990年以来,随着中国经济崛起,中国的东亚市场提供者地位不断提升。贸易数据显示2009年中国占东亚出口总额的比重已经超越美国,说明中国已经具备成为东亚市场提供者的条件。但是贸易数据低估了美国的东亚市场提供者地位,美国仍然是东亚最终产品市场提供者,中国则是东亚中间产品市场提供者。
中国的东亚市场提供者地位提升促进了中国的经济增长、产业结构升级和技术进步。特别是中间产品进口为中国提供了必要的生产要素和先进技术。虽然在短期内最终产品进口增加,有可能对中国传统劳动密集型产业造成一定的冲击,但是随着中国的产业结构调整和经济增长,这些冲击将会被降至最低。从长远来看,中国的东亚市场提供者地位提升还有利于增进人民福利,缓解人民币升值压力和减少外汇损失风险。
进入20世纪90年代,东亚各经济体实施出口导向型经济增长模式的国际经济背景已经发生了根本的改变,东亚正面临出口市场容量的限制,东亚作为一个整体其出口导向型经济增长模式已经不可持续,而部分东亚经济体不可能完全放弃出口导向型经济增长模式。2009年全球金融危机对东亚造成巨大冲击,说明对欧美发达国家的过度依赖严重威胁东亚经济稳定。在这种情况下,形成东亚区域内市场提供者,有利于东亚经济稳定与持续发展。中国的东亚市场提供者地位提升对东亚各经济体的经济增长产生了很强的拉动作用,但是从贸易收益上看,美国和日本从中国的经济增长中获得了较多利益,而东盟四国分享的贸易收益较少,这是当前中国的东亚影响力提升的主要障碍。另外,中国的东亚市场提供者地位提升还影响了东亚部分经济体的产业演进进程。
中国目前不具备成为东亚最终产品市场提供者的能力。但中国拥有巨大的国内市场和对外贸易规模,并且中国已经与东亚各经济体形成紧密的产业关联,表明中国的东亚中间产品市场提供者地位将进一步提升。从长远来看,中国具备成为东亚最终产品市场提供者的潜力,中国的东亚最终产品市场提供者地位必将不断提升。
中国成为东亚市场提供者的过程中应当坚持维护自身利益的原则、扩大国内市场的原则和渐进稳步推进原则。中国的东亚市场提供者地位的形成路径可以分为四个阶段：一是国内产业结构调整,提升出口产品竞争力；二是通过东亚区域合作,扩大东亚区域内贸易；三是提高居民收入,扩大国内市场；四是通过扩大从东亚进口,强化中国的东亚市场提供者地位。中国的东亚市场提供者提升的过程中应当采取的措施主要包括：一是扩大内需促进居民消费；二是调整产业结构和出口贸易结构；三是实施出口多元化战略；四是审慎对待人民币升值。
Since the 1960s, East Asian economies have implemented the Export-oriented economic growth model in succession, Export-oriented economic growth model had greatly promoted the economic development of East Asia. However, with the continuous improvement of production capacity of East Asia, export-oriented economic growth model more and more exposed to external market constraints. To change this situation, East Asian economies must shift from the dependence on European and American markets to Intra-Asian market, and gradually form the East Asian market provider. China is the increasingly rising power in East Asian region. With huge domestic market potential, China has initially possessed conditions of the East Asian market provider. Becoming the East Asian market provider will not only bring China with domestic scarce factors of production, and enhance innovation capability of domestic enterprises, but also help reduce the East Asian economies' dependence on European and American markets, thereby stabilizing the East Asian regional economy, in return, providing a stable regional environment for China's economic development, and promote China's sustainable economic development. Therefore, the study of China's East Asian market provider status has important practical significance.
The dissertation uses historical and institutional, normative and empirical analysis, we will study china's East Asian market provider status from following aspects:(1) The development and evolution of China's imports from East Asia; (2) Comparison of the East Asian market provider status of china and American; (3) The impact on China of China's East Asian market provider status; (4) The impact on East Asia of China's East Asian market provider status; (5) Development Trend of China's East Asian market provider status; (6) Conclusion and policy recommendations for China's East Asian market provider status.
American, Japan and China have great impact on East Asia. After World WarⅡ, American had implemented free trade policy, and open the domestic market for East Asia. Measured by exports, American is the most important East Asian market provider. After World WarⅡ, Japan's East Asian market provider status had increased rapiddly, but limited by the size of the domestic market, Japan can not become the most important East Asian market provider. Since 1990, with China's economic growth, China's East Asian market provider status had increased rapidly. Trade data shows that in 2009 China's imports accounted for the proportion of total exports of East Asia has surpassed that of American, this shows that China has already had conditions of becoming East Asian market provider. However, trade data underestimated the American's East Asian market provider status, American is still the East Asian market provider of final products, while China is the East Asian market provider of Intermediate products.
The rise of China's East Asian market provider status will promote China's enconomic growth, industrial structure evolution and technological progress. In particular, imports of intermediate products provided China the necessary factors of productions and advanced technologies and will be helpful for China's economic development. Although the final products import is likely to have certain impacts on China's traditional labor-intensive industries in the short term, with China's industrial structure adjustment and economic growth, these impacts will be minimized. In a long run, the rise of China's East Asian market provider status will also be helpful to enhance the welfare of Chinese residents, ease the pressure of RMB appreciation and reduce the risk of foreign exchange loss.
Since the 1990s, the international economic background of East Asian Export-oriented economic growth model has undergone a fundamental change, East Asia is facing outside market size constraints, the Export-oriented economic growth model of East Asian as a whole is no longer sustainable, but some East Asian economies still do not have the ability to change their export-oriented economy growth model. The global financial crisis in 2009 had a tremendous impact on East Asia, indicating that the over-reliance on European and American market has serious threats to the economic stability of East Asia. In this case, the formation of intra-Asia market provider is conducive to economic stability and sustainable development in East Asia. China's East Asian market provider status had a strong stimulating effect on East Asia's economic growth. However, from trade point of view, American and Japan had gained more benefits from China's economic growth, and the ASEAN4 countries shared less trade incomes, this is currently a major obstacle to improve the Asian influence of China. In addition, the rise of China's East Asian market provider status also affected some East Asian economies'industry evolution.
Now, china still can not become the East Asian market provider of final products. But China has a huge domestic market and huge foreign trade volume, and there is closely industry relationship between china and East Asia, in this case China's East Asian market provider of intermediate products status will rise, in the long run, China has the ability to become the East Asian market provider of final products, China's Status as the East Asian market provider will rise.
In the process of China becoming the East Asian market provider, China should uphold principles such as the principle of defencing China's own benefits, the principle of expanding domestic market and the steadily progressive principles.The path of China's East Asian market provider could be divided into four phases:First, the domestic industrial structure adjustment, enhance the competitiveness of export products; Second, expand trade linkage with East Asia economies through the East Asian regional cooperation; The third is to improve people's income, expand the domestic market; Fourth, through the expansion of imports from East Asia, strengthen China's East Asian market provider status. Major measures include:First, expand domestic demand and promote consumption; Second, adjust the industrial structure and export trade structure; Third, implement the strategy of market diversification; Fouth, RMB appreciates limitly.
本文综合运用了历史与动态、规范与实证的分析方法,从以下几方面对中国的东亚市场提供者地位进行了详细的剖析：(1)中国从东亚进口贸易发展概况及演变；(2)中国与美国的东亚市场提供者地位的比较；(3)中国的东亚市场提供者地位对中国的影响；(4)中国的东亚市场提供者地位对东亚的影响；(5)中国的东亚市场提供者地位的发展趋势；(6)结论与政策建议。
美国、日本和中国目前对东亚影响最大。二战后,美国奉行自由贸易政策,并对东亚开放国内市场,按进口占东亚出口总额的比重衡量,美国一直是东亚最大的市场提供者。二战后,日本的东亚市场提供者地位迅速提升,但是由于国内市场规模的限制,日本无法取代美国成为东亚最大的市场提供者。1990年以来,随着中国经济崛起,中国的东亚市场提供者地位不断提升。贸易数据显示2009年中国占东亚出口总额的比重已经超越美国,说明中国已经具备成为东亚市场提供者的条件。但是贸易数据低估了美国的东亚市场提供者地位,美国仍然是东亚最终产品市场提供者,中国则是东亚中间产品市场提供者。
中国的东亚市场提供者地位提升促进了中国的经济增长、产业结构升级和技术进步。特别是中间产品进口为中国提供了必要的生产要素和先进技术。虽然在短期内最终产品进口增加,有可能对中国传统劳动密集型产业造成一定的冲击,但是随着中国的产业结构调整和经济增长,这些冲击将会被降至最低。从长远来看,中国的东亚市场提供者地位提升还有利于增进人民福利,缓解人民币升值压力和减少外汇损失风险。
进入20世纪90年代,东亚各经济体实施出口导向型经济增长模式的国际经济背景已经发生了根本的改变,东亚正面临出口市场容量的限制,东亚作为一个整体其出口导向型经济增长模式已经不可持续,而部分东亚经济体不可能完全放弃出口导向型经济增长模式。2009年全球金融危机对东亚造成巨大冲击,说明对欧美发达国家的过度依赖严重威胁东亚经济稳定。在这种情况下,形成东亚区域内市场提供者,有利于东亚经济稳定与持续发展。中国的东亚市场提供者地位提升对东亚各经济体的经济增长产生了很强的拉动作用,但是从贸易收益上看,美国和日本从中国的经济增长中获得了较多利益,而东盟四国分享的贸易收益较少,这是当前中国的东亚影响力提升的主要障碍。另外,中国的东亚市场提供者地位提升还影响了东亚部分经济体的产业演进进程。
中国目前不具备成为东亚最终产品市场提供者的能力。但中国拥有巨大的国内市场和对外贸易规模,并且中国已经与东亚各经济体形成紧密的产业关联,表明中国的东亚中间产品市场提供者地位将进一步提升。从长远来看,中国具备成为东亚最终产品市场提供者的潜力,中国的东亚最终产品市场提供者地位必将不断提升。
中国成为东亚市场提供者的过程中应当坚持维护自身利益的原则、扩大国内市场的原则和渐进稳步推进原则。中国的东亚市场提供者地位的形成路径可以分为四个阶段：一是国内产业结构调整,提升出口产品竞争力；二是通过东亚区域合作,扩大东亚区域内贸易；三是提高居民收入,扩大国内市场；四是通过扩大从东亚进口,强化中国的东亚市场提供者地位。中国的东亚市场提供者提升的过程中应当采取的措施主要包括：一是扩大内需促进居民消费；二是调整产业结构和出口贸易结构；三是实施出口多元化战略；四是审慎对待人民币升值。
Since the 1960s, East Asian economies have implemented the Export-oriented economic growth model in succession, Export-oriented economic growth model had greatly promoted the economic development of East Asia. However, with the continuous improvement of production capacity of East Asia, export-oriented economic growth model more and more exposed to external market constraints. To change this situation, East Asian economies must shift from the dependence on European and American markets to Intra-Asian market, and gradually form the East Asian market provider. China is the increasingly rising power in East Asian region. With huge domestic market potential, China has initially possessed conditions of the East Asian market provider. Becoming the East Asian market provider will not only bring China with domestic scarce factors of production, and enhance innovation capability of domestic enterprises, but also help reduce the East Asian economies' dependence on European and American markets, thereby stabilizing the East Asian regional economy, in return, providing a stable regional environment for China's economic development, and promote China's sustainable economic development. Therefore, the study of China's East Asian market provider status has important practical significance.
The dissertation uses historical and institutional, normative and empirical analysis, we will study china's East Asian market provider status from following aspects:(1) The development and evolution of China's imports from East Asia; (2) Comparison of the East Asian market provider status of china and American; (3) The impact on China of China's East Asian market provider status; (4) The impact on East Asia of China's East Asian market provider status; (5) Development Trend of China's East Asian market provider status; (6) Conclusion and policy recommendations for China's East Asian market provider status.
American, Japan and China have great impact on East Asia. After World WarⅡ, American had implemented free trade policy, and open the domestic market for East Asia. Measured by exports, American is the most important East Asian market provider. After World WarⅡ, Japan's East Asian market provider status had increased rapiddly, but limited by the size of the domestic market, Japan can not become the most important East Asian market provider. Since 1990, with China's economic growth, China's East Asian market provider status had increased rapidly. Trade data shows that in 2009 China's imports accounted for the proportion of total exports of East Asia has surpassed that of American, this shows that China has already had conditions of becoming East Asian market provider. However, trade data underestimated the American's East Asian market provider status, American is still the East Asian market provider of final products, while China is the East Asian market provider of Intermediate products.
The rise of China's East Asian market provider status will promote China's enconomic growth, industrial structure evolution and technological progress. In particular, imports of intermediate products provided China the necessary factors of productions and advanced technologies and will be helpful for China's economic development. Although the final products import is likely to have certain impacts on China's traditional labor-intensive industries in the short term, with China's industrial structure adjustment and economic growth, these impacts will be minimized. In a long run, the rise of China's East Asian market provider status will also be helpful to enhance the welfare of Chinese residents, ease the pressure of RMB appreciation and reduce the risk of foreign exchange loss.
Since the 1990s, the international economic background of East Asian Export-oriented economic growth model has undergone a fundamental change, East Asia is facing outside market size constraints, the Export-oriented economic growth model of East Asian as a whole is no longer sustainable, but some East Asian economies still do not have the ability to change their export-oriented economy growth model. The global financial crisis in 2009 had a tremendous impact on East Asia, indicating that the over-reliance on European and American market has serious threats to the economic stability of East Asia. In this case, the formation of intra-Asia market provider is conducive to economic stability and sustainable development in East Asia. China's East Asian market provider status had a strong stimulating effect on East Asia's economic growth. However, from trade point of view, American and Japan had gained more benefits from China's economic growth, and the ASEAN4 countries shared less trade incomes, this is currently a major obstacle to improve the Asian influence of China. In addition, the rise of China's East Asian market provider status also affected some East Asian economies'industry evolution.
Now, china still can not become the East Asian market provider of final products. But China has a huge domestic market and huge foreign trade volume, and there is closely industry relationship between china and East Asia, in this case China's East Asian market provider of intermediate products status will rise, in the long run, China has the ability to become the East Asian market provider of final products, China's Status as the East Asian market provider will rise.
In the process of China becoming the East Asian market provider, China should uphold principles such as the principle of defencing China's own benefits, the principle of expanding domestic market and the steadily progressive principles.The path of China's East Asian market provider could be divided into four phases:First, the domestic industrial structure adjustment, enhance the competitiveness of export products; Second, expand trade linkage with East Asia economies through the East Asian regional cooperation; The third is to improve people's income, expand the domestic market; Fourth, through the expansion of imports from East Asia, strengthen China's East Asian market provider status. Major measures include:First, expand domestic demand and promote consumption; Second, adjust the industrial structure and export trade structure; Third, implement the strategy of market diversification; Fouth, RMB appreciates limitly.
引文
①崔寅,莽九晨、孙天仁、彭立：《中国作为“世界市场”存在感日益增强》,《人民日报》2011年1月13日。
②费戈：《“最终需求者”角色背后的贸易分歧》,《21世纪经济报道》2011年1月4日。
① (日)经济企划厅国际地域协作促进研究会编《地域主义抬头条件下日本的选择》,1998年版,第145页。
①具体包括：112 Food and beverages, primary, mainly for household consumption; 122 Food and beverages, processed, mainly for household consumption: 51 Passenger motor cars; 522 Other non-industrial transport equipment; 61 Durable consumer goods n.e.s: 62 Semi-durable consumer goods n.e.s; 63 Non-durable consumer goods n.e.s.
①亚当·斯密著,郭大力,王亚南译：《国民财富的性质和原因研究》(下卷),北京：商务印书馆,1972,p28。
①李晓,丁一兵,等.人民币区域化问题研究[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2010.
①赵江林.东亚经济增长模式：转型与前景[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010.
①赵江林.东亚经济增长模式：转型与前景[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010.
①国务院十项措施扩大内需措施[EB/OL]·http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-11/09/content_10331258_1.htm.
①国务院关于发布实施《促进产业结构调整暂行规定》的决定[EB/OL]·http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbqt/zcfb2005/t20051222_54302.htm.
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①具体包括：112 Food and beverages, primary, mainly for household consumption; 122 Food and beverages, processed, mainly for household consumption: 51 Passenger motor cars; 522 Other non-industrial transport equipment; 61 Durable consumer goods n.e.s: 62 Semi-durable consumer goods n.e.s; 63 Non-durable consumer goods n.e.s.
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①国务院关于发布实施《促进产业结构调整暂行规定》的决定[EB/OL]·http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbqt/zcfb2005/t20051222_54302.htm.
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