人民币汇率变动对中韩贸易影响
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摘要
该文研究的主要目的是探讨汇率变化对中韩两国双边贸易的影响。虽然人民币汇率制度在很长一段时间都是紧盯美元的,但它对韩元一直是波动的,这就为我们提供了测试汇率制度的影响自然实验机会。本文分析的是人民币和韩元之间的汇率是否对两国的双边贸易有重大的影响以及这种影响的程度。
目前中国是韩国最大的贸易伙伴,韩国是中国的第三大贸易伙伴。中韩两国日益增长的进出口额也带动了两国的经济增长。随着两国贸易额的不断扩大,两国贸易依赖关系日益增强。
为了评估人民币汇率升值可能对中韩贸易造成的影响,本文应用不完全传递模型对两国从2000年第一季度到2009年第三季度中这一段时期的每个季度的国民生产总值及消费者价格指数的数据进行回归分析,研究结果表明实际汇率贬值变化对韩中两国之间的贸易量有正的影响,但影响不大。两国经济发展水平,两国国内价格水平是其重要的影响因素。
The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral trade between Korea and China. Although the RMB yuan was fixed against the US dollar for several years, it has been fluctuating against the Korean won, which provides us with a natural experiment to test the exchange rate effect. This paper analyzed whether and to what extent the exchange rate between the RMB yuan and Korea won has significant impacts on bilateral trade between two countries
China is currently Korea's biggest trading partner and Korea is China's third biggest trading partner. Korea's recent economic growth has been partly due to increased exports to China, leading us to believe that China's the economic growth will be an important exogenous factor in Korea's growth. Both nations' reliance on each other has become more significant ever since.
In order to assess the possible effects of appreciation of Chinese RMB yuan, this paper use The Imperfect Substitutes Model based on the data of the two countries for the period from the first quarter 2000 to the last quarter 2009 between China and Korea to conduct regression analysis. Findings in this paper imply that real exchange rate changes have a little influence on trade volume between Korea and China, but its effect is weaker than the effect of GDP and CPI in the two countries.
目前中国是韩国最大的贸易伙伴,韩国是中国的第三大贸易伙伴。中韩两国日益增长的进出口额也带动了两国的经济增长。随着两国贸易额的不断扩大,两国贸易依赖关系日益增强。
为了评估人民币汇率升值可能对中韩贸易造成的影响,本文应用不完全传递模型对两国从2000年第一季度到2009年第三季度中这一段时期的每个季度的国民生产总值及消费者价格指数的数据进行回归分析,研究结果表明实际汇率贬值变化对韩中两国之间的贸易量有正的影响,但影响不大。两国经济发展水平,两国国内价格水平是其重要的影响因素。
The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral trade between Korea and China. Although the RMB yuan was fixed against the US dollar for several years, it has been fluctuating against the Korean won, which provides us with a natural experiment to test the exchange rate effect. This paper analyzed whether and to what extent the exchange rate between the RMB yuan and Korea won has significant impacts on bilateral trade between two countries
China is currently Korea's biggest trading partner and Korea is China's third biggest trading partner. Korea's recent economic growth has been partly due to increased exports to China, leading us to believe that China's the economic growth will be an important exogenous factor in Korea's growth. Both nations' reliance on each other has become more significant ever since.
In order to assess the possible effects of appreciation of Chinese RMB yuan, this paper use The Imperfect Substitutes Model based on the data of the two countries for the period from the first quarter 2000 to the last quarter 2009 between China and Korea to conduct regression analysis. Findings in this paper imply that real exchange rate changes have a little influence on trade volume between Korea and China, but its effect is weaker than the effect of GDP and CPI in the two countries.
引文
①卜伟.国际贸易与国际金融.清华大学出版社,2005
①李伟平.不完全汇率传递研究综述.经济评论,2009
②施建淮,傅雄广.汇率传递理论文献综述.世界经济,2010(05)
①戴祖样.我国贸易收支的弹性分析[J].经济研究, 1997(7).
②卢向前,戴国强.人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响:1994-2003[J].经济研究, 2005.
①李海菠.人民币实际汇率与中国对外贸易的关系——基于1973—2001年数据的实证分析[J].世界经济研究, 2003.
②Wilson P. Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economics: Does the J-curve Exist for Singapor, Malaysia and Korea[J]. Open Economies Reviews, 2001.
③Marquez. Jaime. Bilateral Trade Elasticity[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1990.
④沈国兵.中日贸易与人民币汇率:实证分析[J].国际经贸探索, 2004(5).
①新华网.我国汇率制度的演变.2005年5月18日
①胡俊芳.中韩贸易逆差原因及对策分析.国际论坛. 2007
①郑宝银,林发勤.中韩两国贸易的均衡分析.亚太经济,2008
②尹翔硕.逐步迈向自由化-中韩经济发展阶段和相应的贸易战略的比较.国际贸易(2003)
①数据来源:中华人民共和国商务部.投资统计
②何帆,齐俊妍.中韩出口产品的竞争程度分析.吉林大学社会科学学报,2006
①叶静怡,王沛.中韩贸易逆差探析.经济科学,2005
②朴关姬.中韩双边贸易问题及对策.当代亚太,2007 (07)
①周松兰.中韩贸易结构新动态.国际经济合作,2007
[1]Rose A. K. 1991, The Role of Exchange Rates in A Popular Model of International Trade: Does the Marshall- Lerner', Condition Hold`? Journal of GernaGional Econonmic.s 30: 301-316.
[2]Rose A. K. Yellen, 1989, Is This a J- curve`? Journal of Monetary Economies24: 53-56.
[3]Khim-sen Liew Kian-ping Lim Huzaimia Hussain. Exchange rate and trade balance relationship:The experience of Asian countries, International Trade,2003
[4]Yong Li. The impact of FDI on trade: evidence from China's bilateral trade .Journal of the Academy of Business and Economics, Jan, 2003.
[5]TAKATOSHI ITO. The Influence of the RMB on Exchange Rate Policy of Other Economies .Peterson Institute for International Economics Conference. 2007
[6]Jooh-Kyung Kim,Yangseon Kim,Chung,H.lee. Trade,Investment and Econic Interdependence between South Korea and China .Asian Economic Journal, 2006, Vo20 (No.4) .
[7]Garcia-Herrero A,Koivu T. China‘s exchange rate policy and asian trade .BIS Working Paper No.282. 2009
[8]Lee, Jung-Yong. Changes in Trade between Korean and China since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 .Inha University, 2009
[9]Abrupt Chinese RMB yuan Appreciation on Korea‘s Economy .Korea Industrial Bank Economy Research Center,
[10]Krugman and Baldwin. The Persistence of the US Trade Deficit[J]. Bookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1987.
[11]Wilson P. Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economics: Does the J-curve Exist for Singapor, Malaysia and Korea[J]. Open Economies Reviews, 2001.
[12]Marquez. Jaime. Bilateral Trade Elasticity[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1990.
[13] Lim, Young-Mo. Changes in Korea-Chinese Trade Structure and TheirImplications .Samsung Economic Research Institute, 2008, .
[14] Gab-Je Jo The Role of Exchange Rates in Korea’s Commodity Trade with China [J]. Journal of East Asian Economic Integration 2010
[15]郭鸿梅:浅析汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响[J].中国经贸, 2009(6).
[16]杨力.国际货币经济学[M].上海:上海外语教育出版社,2008:第4章.
[17]李雪.人民币汇率变动对我国贸易结构的影响[D].武汉:武汉理工大学, 2006.
[18]戴祖样.我国贸易收支的弹性分析[J].经济研究,1997(7).
[19]卢向前,戴国强.人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响:1994-2003[J].经济研究,2005.
[20]李海菠.人民币实际汇率与中国对外贸易的关系——基于1973—2001年数据的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2003.
[21]陈彪如,人民币汇率研究[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,1992.
[20]谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支:协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济, 2002.
[21]沈国兵.中日贸易与人民币汇率:实证分析[J].国际经贸探索,2004(5).
[22]厉以宁.中国对外经济与国际收支研究[M].北京:国际文化出版公司,1991.
[23]葛炎欢.汇率变动对国际贸易影响文献综述[J].经济论坛,2008(19).
[24][美]彼得·纽曼,默里·米尔盖特, [英]约翰·伊特韦尔.新帕尔格雷夫货币金融大辞典(第一卷)[M].北京:经济科学出版社, 2000.
[25]万正晓.基于实际有效汇率变动趋势的人民币汇率问题研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004(2).
[26]孙敬水,马淑琴.计量经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004.
[27]孙敬水.计量经济学教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,北京交通大学出版社, 2005.
[28]辜风.人民币双边汇率与我国贸易收支关系的实证研究:1997--2004[J]经济科学,2006(11)
[29]任兆璋,宁忠忠.人民币实际汇率与贸易收支实证分析[J].现代财经2004(11)
[30]苏科五.中韩贸易逆差的未来趋势及我国应采取的对策[J].当代经济2006(10)
[31]卢向前,戴国强:人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响:1994- 2003 [J] ,经济研究,2005(5)
[32]郑宝银.中韩两国贸易的均衡分析[J].亚太经济,2008(3):44-47
[33]胡俊芳.中韩贸易逆差的原因及对策分析[J].世界经济,2007(2)
[34]叶静怡,王沛.中韩贸易逆差探析[J].经济科学,2005(1)
[35]朴光姬.中韩关系与东北亚经济共同体,[M]中国社会科学出版社,2008.
[36]何帆,齐俊妍.中韩出口产品的竞争程度分析[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2006(7)
[37]朝鲜日报.中国宣布增强汇率弹性—人民币升值有望,2010年10月7日
[38]沈国兵.中日贸易与人民币汇率:实证分析[J].国际经贸探索,2004(5). [39]陈学彬,徐明东.人民币实际汇率变动对我国进出口贸易影响:1997—2006[J].亚太经济,2007(2)
[40]徐梅.进出口贸易增长人民币汇率波动与贸易均衡汇率决定[J],当代财经,2007(2)
[41]谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支:协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济, 2002.
[42]赵大平.汇率传递及对贸易平衡的影响[J],世界经济研究,2005(9)
[43]周松兰,中韩贸易结构新动态[J]国际经济合作2007 10
①李伟平.不完全汇率传递研究综述.经济评论,2009
②施建淮,傅雄广.汇率传递理论文献综述.世界经济,2010(05)
①戴祖样.我国贸易收支的弹性分析[J].经济研究, 1997(7).
②卢向前,戴国强.人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响:1994-2003[J].经济研究, 2005.
①李海菠.人民币实际汇率与中国对外贸易的关系——基于1973—2001年数据的实证分析[J].世界经济研究, 2003.
②Wilson P. Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economics: Does the J-curve Exist for Singapor, Malaysia and Korea[J]. Open Economies Reviews, 2001.
③Marquez. Jaime. Bilateral Trade Elasticity[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1990.
④沈国兵.中日贸易与人民币汇率:实证分析[J].国际经贸探索, 2004(5).
①新华网.我国汇率制度的演变.2005年5月18日
①胡俊芳.中韩贸易逆差原因及对策分析.国际论坛. 2007
①郑宝银,林发勤.中韩两国贸易的均衡分析.亚太经济,2008
②尹翔硕.逐步迈向自由化-中韩经济发展阶段和相应的贸易战略的比较.国际贸易(2003)
①数据来源:中华人民共和国商务部.投资统计
②何帆,齐俊妍.中韩出口产品的竞争程度分析.吉林大学社会科学学报,2006
①叶静怡,王沛.中韩贸易逆差探析.经济科学,2005
②朴关姬.中韩双边贸易问题及对策.当代亚太,2007 (07)
①周松兰.中韩贸易结构新动态.国际经济合作,2007
[1]Rose A. K. 1991, The Role of Exchange Rates in A Popular Model of International Trade: Does the Marshall- Lerner', Condition Hold`? Journal of GernaGional Econonmic.s 30: 301-316.
[2]Rose A. K. Yellen, 1989, Is This a J- curve`? Journal of Monetary Economies24: 53-56.
[3]Khim-sen Liew Kian-ping Lim Huzaimia Hussain. Exchange rate and trade balance relationship:The experience of Asian countries, International Trade,2003
[4]Yong Li. The impact of FDI on trade: evidence from China's bilateral trade .Journal of the Academy of Business and Economics, Jan, 2003.
[5]TAKATOSHI ITO. The Influence of the RMB on Exchange Rate Policy of Other Economies .Peterson Institute for International Economics Conference. 2007
[6]Jooh-Kyung Kim,Yangseon Kim,Chung,H.lee. Trade,Investment and Econic Interdependence between South Korea and China .Asian Economic Journal, 2006, Vo20 (No.4) .
[7]Garcia-Herrero A,Koivu T. China‘s exchange rate policy and asian trade .BIS Working Paper No.282. 2009
[8]Lee, Jung-Yong. Changes in Trade between Korean and China since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 .Inha University, 2009
[9]Abrupt Chinese RMB yuan Appreciation on Korea‘s Economy .Korea Industrial Bank Economy Research Center,
[10]Krugman and Baldwin. The Persistence of the US Trade Deficit[J]. Bookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1987.
[11]Wilson P. Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economics: Does the J-curve Exist for Singapor, Malaysia and Korea[J]. Open Economies Reviews, 2001.
[12]Marquez. Jaime. Bilateral Trade Elasticity[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1990.
[13] Lim, Young-Mo. Changes in Korea-Chinese Trade Structure and TheirImplications .Samsung Economic Research Institute, 2008, .
[14] Gab-Je Jo The Role of Exchange Rates in Korea’s Commodity Trade with China [J]. Journal of East Asian Economic Integration 2010
[15]郭鸿梅:浅析汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响[J].中国经贸, 2009(6).
[16]杨力.国际货币经济学[M].上海:上海外语教育出版社,2008:第4章.
[17]李雪.人民币汇率变动对我国贸易结构的影响[D].武汉:武汉理工大学, 2006.
[18]戴祖样.我国贸易收支的弹性分析[J].经济研究,1997(7).
[19]卢向前,戴国强.人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响:1994-2003[J].经济研究,2005.
[20]李海菠.人民币实际汇率与中国对外贸易的关系——基于1973—2001年数据的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2003.
[21]陈彪如,人民币汇率研究[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,1992.
[20]谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支:协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济, 2002.
[21]沈国兵.中日贸易与人民币汇率:实证分析[J].国际经贸探索,2004(5).
[22]厉以宁.中国对外经济与国际收支研究[M].北京:国际文化出版公司,1991.
[23]葛炎欢.汇率变动对国际贸易影响文献综述[J].经济论坛,2008(19).
[24][美]彼得·纽曼,默里·米尔盖特, [英]约翰·伊特韦尔.新帕尔格雷夫货币金融大辞典(第一卷)[M].北京:经济科学出版社, 2000.
[25]万正晓.基于实际有效汇率变动趋势的人民币汇率问题研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004(2).
[26]孙敬水,马淑琴.计量经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004.
[27]孙敬水.计量经济学教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,北京交通大学出版社, 2005.
[28]辜风.人民币双边汇率与我国贸易收支关系的实证研究:1997--2004[J]经济科学,2006(11)
[29]任兆璋,宁忠忠.人民币实际汇率与贸易收支实证分析[J].现代财经2004(11)
[30]苏科五.中韩贸易逆差的未来趋势及我国应采取的对策[J].当代经济2006(10)
[31]卢向前,戴国强:人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响:1994- 2003 [J] ,经济研究,2005(5)
[32]郑宝银.中韩两国贸易的均衡分析[J].亚太经济,2008(3):44-47
[33]胡俊芳.中韩贸易逆差的原因及对策分析[J].世界经济,2007(2)
[34]叶静怡,王沛.中韩贸易逆差探析[J].经济科学,2005(1)
[35]朴光姬.中韩关系与东北亚经济共同体,[M]中国社会科学出版社,2008.
[36]何帆,齐俊妍.中韩出口产品的竞争程度分析[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2006(7)
[37]朝鲜日报.中国宣布增强汇率弹性—人民币升值有望,2010年10月7日
[38]沈国兵.中日贸易与人民币汇率:实证分析[J].国际经贸探索,2004(5). [39]陈学彬,徐明东.人民币实际汇率变动对我国进出口贸易影响:1997—2006[J].亚太经济,2007(2)
[40]徐梅.进出口贸易增长人民币汇率波动与贸易均衡汇率决定[J],当代财经,2007(2)
[41]谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支:协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济, 2002.
[42]赵大平.汇率传递及对贸易平衡的影响[J],世界经济研究,2005(9)
[43]周松兰,中韩贸易结构新动态[J]国际经济合作2007 10