区域电力系统超短期负荷预测及网络建模分析
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摘要
社会的进步对电能的需求越来越大,国家每年都要投入大量的资金来加强电力建设,以保证用户需求。而电力系统是一个有机的整体,电能的生产输送有着明显区别于其他工业生产的独特特点。电能不能大量储存,电力的生产、输送、使用必须同时实现;电力网络作为统一不可分割的系统,在整个电力生产经营环节需要保持电网的稳定安全可靠.因此,做好区域电力系统规划,无论从经济上还是技术上都具有非常重要的意义。
在电力系统规划工作中,单项问题的解决是整体优化规划的基础。但是,如果对整体电网进行一次性统一规划存在许多难点与缺点,比如统一建模困难、求解困难,还常常遗漏一些重要因素。若能遵循科学的方法做好单项规划工作,就可以简化整体电网规划的繁重任务,避免忽略一些重要的因素,同时也可以保证整个电网的经济性、可靠性和安全性能。
本文选择了建立区域电力系统规划中所涉及的两个重要问题作为主要研究内容,即超短期电力负荷预测和区域电力网络建模分析,这两个问题是进行区域电力系统规划,保证区域电力系统平稳运行急需解决的两个关键,超短期负荷预测是确定上网电价的基础和主要依据,而区域电力网络的模型建立和规划分析,则关系到区域电力系统的稳定运行和建设发展。因此,本文从这两个关键问题着手,借助复杂系统理论,智能控制理论,复杂网络理论等理论方法,为构建适合我国国情的区域电力系统提出合理的建议。
电力负荷预测是电力系统规划的基础。结合规划区域的实际发展情况,采用科学有效的负荷预测方法,预测出规划地区负荷电量,是区域电力系统规划的一项重要工作。本文利用人工神经网络BP算法,提出了一种双隐层结构的电力系统超短期负荷预测方法,经过对实际数据的仿真实验,本文提出的神经网络超短期负荷预测方法比传统的线性外推法预测平均绝对百分误差降低2.5个百分点,十分钟负荷预测达到平均绝对百分误差小于2.5%的精度。
电力网络规划通常是在预测负荷需求基本清楚,即未来一个时期内负荷增长规模己知的基础上,提出的电力网络规划方案,以满足负荷需求和保证电力系统安全运行的需要。电力网络规划是一个多目标、多阶段、包含大量不确定因素的离散、非线性受约束的综合优化问题。考虑电力网络规划的上述特点与难点,结合本文的研究目的,本文首先建立了区域复杂电力系统的分解--协调规划模型和基于遗传算法的系统电源规划模型。同时,本文还应用W_S小世界网络模型建立了区域电力网络模型,并分析了当区域电力系统发生事故时,不同规模应急防范措施情况下的电力系统灾难传播和恢复趋势。
本文的研究思路和主要内容为:
(1)首先是分析研究背景,回顾了电力负荷预测、数字滤波和电力网络分析规划研究的发展历程,提出本文主要研究的问题:
(2)从电力系统符负荷的构成、负荷预测的特点、主要影响因素及基本原理等方面深入分析电力负荷预测的复杂特性;
(3)为了提高负荷预测的精度,应用一种基于最优Hankel范数近似的线性相位IIR滤波器对负荷预测数据进行预处理;
(4)提出了一种改进的基于人工神经网络的超短期负荷预测方法,实现了对电力系统负荷预测的建模、分析与预测,仿真结果表明,这种方法预测精度较高,具有较好的应用价值;
(5)分析电力系统的复杂大系统特性,应用复杂系统理论实现区域电力系统建模分析。应用遗传算法实现电力系统电源规划;
(6)分析电力系统的复杂网络特性,应用复杂网络理论建立区域电力网络的模型,应用W—S小世界网模型对电力系统灾难恢复进行建模和分析;
(7)总结本文主要的研究成果和结论,并在前述工作的基础上,对区域电力系统规划的进一步研究工作做出展望。
本文的创新点主要有以下几个方面:
(1)由于多层前向神经网络逼近非线性函数的能力以及误差反向传播(BP)算法的学习能力,早期的神经网络预测模型大多采用单隐层前向网络,隐层神经元的激活函数选用非线性的Sigmoid函数,网络的训练采用BP算法进行。根据区域电力系统超短期负荷预测的特点,本文在原有神经网络负荷预测方法的基础上提出了一种基于双隐层网络结构的神经网络超短期负荷预测方法。经过对实际数据的仿真实验,本文提出的神经网络超短期负荷预测方法比传统的线性外推法预测平均绝对百分误差降低2.5个百分点,十分钟负荷预测达到平均绝对百分误差小于2.5%的精度。
(2)对于负荷数据的预处理,本文应用线性相位有限脉冲响应(FIR)滤波器和最优Hankel范数近似的模型降阶方法来设计线性相位IIR滤波器。这种滤波器设计方法可以减小计算量,提高数据预处理的性能。仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性。
(3)本文应用复杂系统理论和复杂网络理论对区域电力网络进行深入的分析,建立负荷实际的区域电力系统网络模型,针对当前我国电力系统所面临的电力供需问题及网络风险,提出相应的建议解决方案。
通过本文研究得出,为了满足电力负荷日益增长的需求和提高电力系统的可靠性,建设者应该采取一些有效措施,使整个电力系统朝以下方向发展:
(1)提高电压等级。
逐步提高配电网电压等级,简化电压等级划分,减少电压层次,有利于配电网的管理和经济运行。目前,国内城市配电网网络的电压等级大都是10kv,随着城市负荷的增长,配电网需要输送更大的功率。要提高输电线路的输送容量可以通过以下两个途径:线路电压等级不变,增大电流;提高线路电压等级。而提高电压等级常比增大电流经济。所以在电力系统规划时,可在优化过程中优选提高电压等级。
(2)简化电网结构,采用新型设施,建立事故应急防范措施,提高自动化程度。
电力网络进一步向简化、完善和高可靠性发展,如变电所接线推广采用线路变压器组、单母线接线等。电力网络结构推广采用多回线、各式环网、多分段多连接等方式,以提高利用率和供电可靠性,加装自动化装置以减少故障恢复时间.
电网规划中存在大量不确定和不知道的因素,难以用数学模型描述,许多时候只能依靠规划工作人员的经验来完成工作,规划工作缺乏科学性。因此在电网规划中运用科学、先进的理论方法和研究成果,不仅可以大大减少电力规划人员的工作量,还保证了规划结果的科学性、准确性。
目前电网的整体优化规划,或者变电站和输电网络扩展等单项规划中,对规划方案经济性的研究较为充分。但是由于事故不断出现,电网的安全稳定运行越来越受到重视,必须加强对规划方案可靠性、安全性的考虑;对大型电网和长期动态规划,还存在计算速度和收敛性的问题:在较为热门的电网灵活规划研究方面,考虑的不确定性因素仍不完全,许多不确定性因素被忽略或者处理方法不当。我国的电力市场改革己经启动并取得了一定的成绩,针对未来电力市场环境下的电力系统规划研究工作才刚刚起步,有待于深入,今后的研究方向还应当包括:
(1)加强对新型算法的研究,寻找更快速、高效的实用求解方法。
(2)合理地考虑多阶段规划中各阶段规划方案之间的过渡和相互约束,寻找更合理的模型和实用的求解方法。
(3)在规划模型中更合理地考虑和协调经济性和可靠性的关系,更充分地考虑安全因素,使规划方案更具实用价值。
(4)更为全面合理地考虑和处理各种不确定性因素,如经济、环境和政策等,使规划方案具有更高的灵活性和适应性。
(5)考虑和确定合理的电网规划模型和算法,使其符合电力市场模式的需求。
As socialist economy develops further,electric power demand in China is increasing.The transmission of electric power distinguishes strongly from that of other industries.Power energy can not be abundantly stocked,thus the electric power generation,power supply,power sale and power consumption must be processed in the meantime.Power network,as a wholesale system,should retain stable and reliable in electric power generation and management.Therefore,completes the regional power system planning,regardless in the economic or in the technology has a very important significance.
In power system planning,the single issue's solution is the basis for whole optimization planning.However,the unified plan has many difficulties and shortcomings,such as the Unified Modeling difficulties,solving difficulties,often omitted some important factors.But,if follow a scientific approach to individual planning,we can simplify the overall power grid planning.Not only avoids neglecting some important factors,but also ensure that the entire power grid of the economy, reliability and safety performance.
In this dissertation,two important issues was chose as the main contents,namely ultra short-term power load forecasting and modeling of regional electric power network.These two issues are the two key needed to resolve on the regional power system planning.The ultra-short-term load forecasting is the foundation of the electricity price.While the regional power network model for analysis and planning, then relates the regional power system's stable operation and the development. Therefore,this dissertation use complex systems theory,intelligent control theory and complex network theory to resolve the two key issues.And the reasonable proposal for the construction the region electrical power system was put forward
The power load forecast is the basis of the power system planning.With the actual planning of regional development,uses a scientific and effective load forecasting methods forecast plans the local load electric quantity,is an important work to the regional power system planning.This dissertation uses the BP algorithm, proposed a double hidden layer structure artificial neural network to the forecast ultra-short-term power system load.After the simulation with the actual data,the method which this dissertation proposed compared to the traditional linear extrapolation Prediction method average absolute percent error of 2.5 percentage points,ten minute load forecasts achieve the average absolute percentage error are smaller than 2.5%accuracy.
The electric power network planning usually is in the load demand basic clear that the future load growth within a period of time scale known on the basis of the load forecasting,proposed the electric power network planning plan,will meet the load need and the guarantee electrical power system safe operation need.The electric power network planning is a multi-objective,multi-stage,including a large number of discrete factors of uncertainty,bound by the non-linear integrated optimization problem.Considered the above characteristics and difficulties,with the purpose of the study in this dissertation,the decomposition-coordinated planning model and power system source planning model were firstly established.At the same time,the region electric power network model using the W_S microcosm network model has also been established.The model was applied to analyze the regional power system when the accident occurred,different scale emergency precautionary measures under the power transmission system disaster and recovery trend.
The ideas and main contents of this dissertation are:
(1) First is the analytical study background,reviewed the power load forecasting,digital filtering and the electric power network planning research development process,put this dissertation on the issue;
(2) From the power system at the composition of load,load forecasting the characteristics of the main factors and basic principles of electricity,and other aspects of in-depth analysis of the complex characteristics of load forecast;
(3) To improve the accuracy of load forecast,based on the optimal design of a Hankel norm approximate linear phase IIR filter used to load forecast data pretreatment;
(4) Proposed a modified ultra-short-term load forecasting methods based on artificial neural network and realized the power system load forecast for the modeling,analysis and forecast,the simulation results show that this method of prediction accuracy higher,with better Application of value;
(5) Analysis of the complex power system of large-scale systems,application of complex systems theory of regional power system modeling analysis, realizes the electrical power system power source plan using the genetic algorithm;
(6) Analyzes electrical power system's complex network characteristic,the complex network theory was applied to establish a regional electricity power network model,a W-S small world network model was used on the power system disaster recovery modeling and analysis;
(7) Summarizes this dissertation main research results and the conclusion,and in the fore-mentioned work's foundation,makes the forecast to the region electrical power system plan's further research work.
The major innovation of this dissertation in the following areas:
(1) As the multi-layer neural network approach to the nonlinear function and the ability to learn of BP algorithm,early neural network forecast model mostly uses the single hidden layer forward network,hidden layer neurons Activation function selects non-linear Sigmoid function,the network training uses the BP algorithm.According to the regional power system load forecast of ultra-short-term characteristics,this dissertation proposed a double hidden layer network architecture.After the simulation with the actual data,the method which this dissertation proposed compared to the traditional linear extrapolation Prediction method average absolute percent error of 2.5 percentage points,ten minute load forecasts achieve the average absolute percentage error are smaller than 2.5%accuracy.
(2) For the filter load data,this dissertation proposed an method that is based on optimal Hankel norm approximation of linear phase infinite impulse response(IIR) filter design.Through the use of linear phase finite impulse response(FIR) filters and optimal Hankel norm similar approach to design linear phase IIR filter.Not only this method reduced in the inverse matrix solution process computation load,simultaneously has given the norm approximation error L_x boundary.The simulation result has confirmed this method validity.
(3) This dissertation applies complex systems theory and complex networks theory to analysis the regional electric power network,establishes the load actual region electrical power system network model,faces the electric power supply and demand question and the network risk in view of the current our country electrical power system,proposes the corresponding suggestion solution.
Through the study,in order to satisfy the growing demand for power load and improve power system reliability,builders should take some effective measures so that the whole power system in the following direction:
(1) Increasing voltage.
Gradually increase the voltage distribution networks,simplifying voltage division,reducing voltage levels,is conducive to the management and distribution system of economic operations.At present,the domestic network of urban distribution system voltage levels are mostly 10kv,with the load of urban growth,distribution networks need to transfer more power.To improve the transmission capacity of transmission lines through the following two ways:line voltage levels unchanged,increasing current,increasing the line voltage.And improve voltage current economic often than increased.Therefore,in power system planning,increase voltage is better.
(2) Simplifies the electrical network structure,uses the new facility,establishes the accident emergency measure,improve the degree of automation.
The electric power network is developing to further simplify and higher reliability.Such as wiring Substation Transformer Group promote the use of lines, such as single-bus connection.Electricity network structure to promote the use of multi-line,all kinds of ring network,more and more connected,and other sub-ways to improve the utilization and reliability,the installation of automated devices to reduce the fault recovery time.
Power System Planning has a lot of uncertainty and unknown factors.It is difficulty to describe using mathematical models.In many cases can only rely on the experience of the planning staff to complete its work.Therefore utilizes scientific,the advanced theory method and the research results in the electrical network plan,not only may reduce the electric power to plan personnel's work load greatly,but also has guaranteed the plan accuracy.
At present the overall power grid optimization plan,or substation and transmission network expansion and other individual plans,the planning of economic research more fully.However,due to the accident continued emergence of a safe and stable operation of power grids more and more attention to the need to strengthen the plan reliability,security considerations.To large-scale electrical network and long-term dynamic programming,but also has the computation speed and the convergence question.In the more popular electrical network flexibility plan research aspect,the uncertainty factor which considered was still incomplete,many uncertainty factors are neglected or the processing method is improper.China's power market reform has been launched and has made certain achievements,the future electricity market environment of power system planning study work has just begun,yet in-depth,the direction of future research should also include:
(1) Strengthen the new algorithm research,,seeks for fast,the highly effective practical solution method.
(2) Considers reasonably the multi-stage planning in various stages of transition between the plan and mutual restraint,to find a more reasonable and practical model to solve.
(3) Considers more reasonably in the coordinated efficiency and the reliable relations,considers the safety factor fully.
(4) More comprehensive and reasonable consideration and handle the various uncertain factors,such as economic,environmental and policy so that the plan has a higher flexibility and adaptability.
(5) Consider and determine a reasonable grid planning models and algorithms,to meet the needs of the electricity market model.
在电力系统规划工作中,单项问题的解决是整体优化规划的基础。但是,如果对整体电网进行一次性统一规划存在许多难点与缺点,比如统一建模困难、求解困难,还常常遗漏一些重要因素。若能遵循科学的方法做好单项规划工作,就可以简化整体电网规划的繁重任务,避免忽略一些重要的因素,同时也可以保证整个电网的经济性、可靠性和安全性能。
本文选择了建立区域电力系统规划中所涉及的两个重要问题作为主要研究内容,即超短期电力负荷预测和区域电力网络建模分析,这两个问题是进行区域电力系统规划,保证区域电力系统平稳运行急需解决的两个关键,超短期负荷预测是确定上网电价的基础和主要依据,而区域电力网络的模型建立和规划分析,则关系到区域电力系统的稳定运行和建设发展。因此,本文从这两个关键问题着手,借助复杂系统理论,智能控制理论,复杂网络理论等理论方法,为构建适合我国国情的区域电力系统提出合理的建议。
电力负荷预测是电力系统规划的基础。结合规划区域的实际发展情况,采用科学有效的负荷预测方法,预测出规划地区负荷电量,是区域电力系统规划的一项重要工作。本文利用人工神经网络BP算法,提出了一种双隐层结构的电力系统超短期负荷预测方法,经过对实际数据的仿真实验,本文提出的神经网络超短期负荷预测方法比传统的线性外推法预测平均绝对百分误差降低2.5个百分点,十分钟负荷预测达到平均绝对百分误差小于2.5%的精度。
电力网络规划通常是在预测负荷需求基本清楚,即未来一个时期内负荷增长规模己知的基础上,提出的电力网络规划方案,以满足负荷需求和保证电力系统安全运行的需要。电力网络规划是一个多目标、多阶段、包含大量不确定因素的离散、非线性受约束的综合优化问题。考虑电力网络规划的上述特点与难点,结合本文的研究目的,本文首先建立了区域复杂电力系统的分解--协调规划模型和基于遗传算法的系统电源规划模型。同时,本文还应用W_S小世界网络模型建立了区域电力网络模型,并分析了当区域电力系统发生事故时,不同规模应急防范措施情况下的电力系统灾难传播和恢复趋势。
本文的研究思路和主要内容为:
(1)首先是分析研究背景,回顾了电力负荷预测、数字滤波和电力网络分析规划研究的发展历程,提出本文主要研究的问题:
(2)从电力系统符负荷的构成、负荷预测的特点、主要影响因素及基本原理等方面深入分析电力负荷预测的复杂特性;
(3)为了提高负荷预测的精度,应用一种基于最优Hankel范数近似的线性相位IIR滤波器对负荷预测数据进行预处理;
(4)提出了一种改进的基于人工神经网络的超短期负荷预测方法,实现了对电力系统负荷预测的建模、分析与预测,仿真结果表明,这种方法预测精度较高,具有较好的应用价值;
(5)分析电力系统的复杂大系统特性,应用复杂系统理论实现区域电力系统建模分析。应用遗传算法实现电力系统电源规划;
(6)分析电力系统的复杂网络特性,应用复杂网络理论建立区域电力网络的模型,应用W—S小世界网模型对电力系统灾难恢复进行建模和分析;
(7)总结本文主要的研究成果和结论,并在前述工作的基础上,对区域电力系统规划的进一步研究工作做出展望。
本文的创新点主要有以下几个方面:
(1)由于多层前向神经网络逼近非线性函数的能力以及误差反向传播(BP)算法的学习能力,早期的神经网络预测模型大多采用单隐层前向网络,隐层神经元的激活函数选用非线性的Sigmoid函数,网络的训练采用BP算法进行。根据区域电力系统超短期负荷预测的特点,本文在原有神经网络负荷预测方法的基础上提出了一种基于双隐层网络结构的神经网络超短期负荷预测方法。经过对实际数据的仿真实验,本文提出的神经网络超短期负荷预测方法比传统的线性外推法预测平均绝对百分误差降低2.5个百分点,十分钟负荷预测达到平均绝对百分误差小于2.5%的精度。
(2)对于负荷数据的预处理,本文应用线性相位有限脉冲响应(FIR)滤波器和最优Hankel范数近似的模型降阶方法来设计线性相位IIR滤波器。这种滤波器设计方法可以减小计算量,提高数据预处理的性能。仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性。
(3)本文应用复杂系统理论和复杂网络理论对区域电力网络进行深入的分析,建立负荷实际的区域电力系统网络模型,针对当前我国电力系统所面临的电力供需问题及网络风险,提出相应的建议解决方案。
通过本文研究得出,为了满足电力负荷日益增长的需求和提高电力系统的可靠性,建设者应该采取一些有效措施,使整个电力系统朝以下方向发展:
(1)提高电压等级。
逐步提高配电网电压等级,简化电压等级划分,减少电压层次,有利于配电网的管理和经济运行。目前,国内城市配电网网络的电压等级大都是10kv,随着城市负荷的增长,配电网需要输送更大的功率。要提高输电线路的输送容量可以通过以下两个途径:线路电压等级不变,增大电流;提高线路电压等级。而提高电压等级常比增大电流经济。所以在电力系统规划时,可在优化过程中优选提高电压等级。
(2)简化电网结构,采用新型设施,建立事故应急防范措施,提高自动化程度。
电力网络进一步向简化、完善和高可靠性发展,如变电所接线推广采用线路变压器组、单母线接线等。电力网络结构推广采用多回线、各式环网、多分段多连接等方式,以提高利用率和供电可靠性,加装自动化装置以减少故障恢复时间.
电网规划中存在大量不确定和不知道的因素,难以用数学模型描述,许多时候只能依靠规划工作人员的经验来完成工作,规划工作缺乏科学性。因此在电网规划中运用科学、先进的理论方法和研究成果,不仅可以大大减少电力规划人员的工作量,还保证了规划结果的科学性、准确性。
目前电网的整体优化规划,或者变电站和输电网络扩展等单项规划中,对规划方案经济性的研究较为充分。但是由于事故不断出现,电网的安全稳定运行越来越受到重视,必须加强对规划方案可靠性、安全性的考虑;对大型电网和长期动态规划,还存在计算速度和收敛性的问题:在较为热门的电网灵活规划研究方面,考虑的不确定性因素仍不完全,许多不确定性因素被忽略或者处理方法不当。我国的电力市场改革己经启动并取得了一定的成绩,针对未来电力市场环境下的电力系统规划研究工作才刚刚起步,有待于深入,今后的研究方向还应当包括:
(1)加强对新型算法的研究,寻找更快速、高效的实用求解方法。
(2)合理地考虑多阶段规划中各阶段规划方案之间的过渡和相互约束,寻找更合理的模型和实用的求解方法。
(3)在规划模型中更合理地考虑和协调经济性和可靠性的关系,更充分地考虑安全因素,使规划方案更具实用价值。
(4)更为全面合理地考虑和处理各种不确定性因素,如经济、环境和政策等,使规划方案具有更高的灵活性和适应性。
(5)考虑和确定合理的电网规划模型和算法,使其符合电力市场模式的需求。
As socialist economy develops further,electric power demand in China is increasing.The transmission of electric power distinguishes strongly from that of other industries.Power energy can not be abundantly stocked,thus the electric power generation,power supply,power sale and power consumption must be processed in the meantime.Power network,as a wholesale system,should retain stable and reliable in electric power generation and management.Therefore,completes the regional power system planning,regardless in the economic or in the technology has a very important significance.
In power system planning,the single issue's solution is the basis for whole optimization planning.However,the unified plan has many difficulties and shortcomings,such as the Unified Modeling difficulties,solving difficulties,often omitted some important factors.But,if follow a scientific approach to individual planning,we can simplify the overall power grid planning.Not only avoids neglecting some important factors,but also ensure that the entire power grid of the economy, reliability and safety performance.
In this dissertation,two important issues was chose as the main contents,namely ultra short-term power load forecasting and modeling of regional electric power network.These two issues are the two key needed to resolve on the regional power system planning.The ultra-short-term load forecasting is the foundation of the electricity price.While the regional power network model for analysis and planning, then relates the regional power system's stable operation and the development. Therefore,this dissertation use complex systems theory,intelligent control theory and complex network theory to resolve the two key issues.And the reasonable proposal for the construction the region electrical power system was put forward
The power load forecast is the basis of the power system planning.With the actual planning of regional development,uses a scientific and effective load forecasting methods forecast plans the local load electric quantity,is an important work to the regional power system planning.This dissertation uses the BP algorithm, proposed a double hidden layer structure artificial neural network to the forecast ultra-short-term power system load.After the simulation with the actual data,the method which this dissertation proposed compared to the traditional linear extrapolation Prediction method average absolute percent error of 2.5 percentage points,ten minute load forecasts achieve the average absolute percentage error are smaller than 2.5%accuracy.
The electric power network planning usually is in the load demand basic clear that the future load growth within a period of time scale known on the basis of the load forecasting,proposed the electric power network planning plan,will meet the load need and the guarantee electrical power system safe operation need.The electric power network planning is a multi-objective,multi-stage,including a large number of discrete factors of uncertainty,bound by the non-linear integrated optimization problem.Considered the above characteristics and difficulties,with the purpose of the study in this dissertation,the decomposition-coordinated planning model and power system source planning model were firstly established.At the same time,the region electric power network model using the W_S microcosm network model has also been established.The model was applied to analyze the regional power system when the accident occurred,different scale emergency precautionary measures under the power transmission system disaster and recovery trend.
The ideas and main contents of this dissertation are:
(1) First is the analytical study background,reviewed the power load forecasting,digital filtering and the electric power network planning research development process,put this dissertation on the issue;
(2) From the power system at the composition of load,load forecasting the characteristics of the main factors and basic principles of electricity,and other aspects of in-depth analysis of the complex characteristics of load forecast;
(3) To improve the accuracy of load forecast,based on the optimal design of a Hankel norm approximate linear phase IIR filter used to load forecast data pretreatment;
(4) Proposed a modified ultra-short-term load forecasting methods based on artificial neural network and realized the power system load forecast for the modeling,analysis and forecast,the simulation results show that this method of prediction accuracy higher,with better Application of value;
(5) Analysis of the complex power system of large-scale systems,application of complex systems theory of regional power system modeling analysis, realizes the electrical power system power source plan using the genetic algorithm;
(6) Analyzes electrical power system's complex network characteristic,the complex network theory was applied to establish a regional electricity power network model,a W-S small world network model was used on the power system disaster recovery modeling and analysis;
(7) Summarizes this dissertation main research results and the conclusion,and in the fore-mentioned work's foundation,makes the forecast to the region electrical power system plan's further research work.
The major innovation of this dissertation in the following areas:
(1) As the multi-layer neural network approach to the nonlinear function and the ability to learn of BP algorithm,early neural network forecast model mostly uses the single hidden layer forward network,hidden layer neurons Activation function selects non-linear Sigmoid function,the network training uses the BP algorithm.According to the regional power system load forecast of ultra-short-term characteristics,this dissertation proposed a double hidden layer network architecture.After the simulation with the actual data,the method which this dissertation proposed compared to the traditional linear extrapolation Prediction method average absolute percent error of 2.5 percentage points,ten minute load forecasts achieve the average absolute percentage error are smaller than 2.5%accuracy.
(2) For the filter load data,this dissertation proposed an method that is based on optimal Hankel norm approximation of linear phase infinite impulse response(IIR) filter design.Through the use of linear phase finite impulse response(FIR) filters and optimal Hankel norm similar approach to design linear phase IIR filter.Not only this method reduced in the inverse matrix solution process computation load,simultaneously has given the norm approximation error L_x boundary.The simulation result has confirmed this method validity.
(3) This dissertation applies complex systems theory and complex networks theory to analysis the regional electric power network,establishes the load actual region electrical power system network model,faces the electric power supply and demand question and the network risk in view of the current our country electrical power system,proposes the corresponding suggestion solution.
Through the study,in order to satisfy the growing demand for power load and improve power system reliability,builders should take some effective measures so that the whole power system in the following direction:
(1) Increasing voltage.
Gradually increase the voltage distribution networks,simplifying voltage division,reducing voltage levels,is conducive to the management and distribution system of economic operations.At present,the domestic network of urban distribution system voltage levels are mostly 10kv,with the load of urban growth,distribution networks need to transfer more power.To improve the transmission capacity of transmission lines through the following two ways:line voltage levels unchanged,increasing current,increasing the line voltage.And improve voltage current economic often than increased.Therefore,in power system planning,increase voltage is better.
(2) Simplifies the electrical network structure,uses the new facility,establishes the accident emergency measure,improve the degree of automation.
The electric power network is developing to further simplify and higher reliability.Such as wiring Substation Transformer Group promote the use of lines, such as single-bus connection.Electricity network structure to promote the use of multi-line,all kinds of ring network,more and more connected,and other sub-ways to improve the utilization and reliability,the installation of automated devices to reduce the fault recovery time.
Power System Planning has a lot of uncertainty and unknown factors.It is difficulty to describe using mathematical models.In many cases can only rely on the experience of the planning staff to complete its work.Therefore utilizes scientific,the advanced theory method and the research results in the electrical network plan,not only may reduce the electric power to plan personnel's work load greatly,but also has guaranteed the plan accuracy.
At present the overall power grid optimization plan,or substation and transmission network expansion and other individual plans,the planning of economic research more fully.However,due to the accident continued emergence of a safe and stable operation of power grids more and more attention to the need to strengthen the plan reliability,security considerations.To large-scale electrical network and long-term dynamic programming,but also has the computation speed and the convergence question.In the more popular electrical network flexibility plan research aspect,the uncertainty factor which considered was still incomplete,many uncertainty factors are neglected or the processing method is improper.China's power market reform has been launched and has made certain achievements,the future electricity market environment of power system planning study work has just begun,yet in-depth,the direction of future research should also include:
(1) Strengthen the new algorithm research,,seeks for fast,the highly effective practical solution method.
(2) Considers reasonably the multi-stage planning in various stages of transition between the plan and mutual restraint,to find a more reasonable and practical model to solve.
(3) Considers more reasonably in the coordinated efficiency and the reliable relations,considers the safety factor fully.
(4) More comprehensive and reasonable consideration and handle the various uncertain factors,such as economic,environmental and policy so that the plan has a higher flexibility and adaptability.
(5) Consider and determine a reasonable grid planning models and algorithms,to meet the needs of the electricity market model.
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