电网投资效益后评价理论及决策支持系统的研究
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摘要
电网作为国民经济和社会发展的重要基础设施,其发展历来受到重视。伴随我国国民经济的高速增长,全社会用电需求不断增加,电网企业也逐步加大对电网的投资力度。与此同时,我国电网企业面临着巨大的经营压力,为了满足电网企业集约化、精益化管理要求,需要强化对投资行为的约束,正确处理投资与效益的关系,实现经济效益和社会效益最大化。因此,如何对电网投资效益有客观的、定量的认识,以制定科学的投资决策是电网企业面临的重要问题。本文在学习和借鉴国内外相关研究成果的基础上,对电网投资效益后评价的理论、评价指标体系以及评价模型进行了研究,并结合电网投资效益后评价工作的应用需求,对其在信息化实现方面的关键技术进行了研究开发,建立了电网投资效益后评价决策支持系统。论文的研究工作及取得的主要成果体现在以下五个方面：
(1)在对现有电网投资评价体系研究的基础上,提出了电网投资效益后评价的概念,全面系统的阐述了其内涵与作用,为电网企业的投资管理工作提供了新的思路。运用经济学理论,构建了电网的C-D生产函数模型和利润函数模型,分析了电网投资效益的影响要素,为电网投资效益后评价方法提供了理论基础。
(2)兼顾经济效益和社会效益,设计出电网投资效益后评价的指标体系。提出了采用“舍弃等级论域”的模糊数学综合评价法进行电网投资效益后评价,并构建出完整的综合评价数学模型,为电网投资效益后评价实践提供了方法指导。
(3)针对电网投资效益后评价对数据的完整性、时效性和准确性的要求,提出将其作为电力企业数据中心的一个深化应用,研究开发了基于轻量级架构的ETL系统,并且探讨了数据模型、数据存储及更新策略、数据质量控制方法等关键问题的解决方案,为构建基于多数据融合的综合数据平台提供了有效的技术支持。
(4)针对目前众多综合评价决策支持系统存在通用性较差的局限,提出了基于AOV网的评价模型构建方法,使得评价模型的“自由动态定义与维护”成为可能。并设计了电网投资效益后评价决策支持系统的总体框架,论述了系统实现的关键技术,完成了原型系统的开发,为电网投资效益后评价工作提供了分析应用平台。
(5)以某省电力公司直属的六个市供电公司为对象,根据研究的指标体系和评价模型,并建立了综合数据平台,利用电网投资效益后评价决策支持系统对各公司2009年的数据进行了实证分析,还对各公司的电网投资需求提出了合理建议。
As a critical infrastructure of national economy and social development, power grid development has always received great attention. With the rapid development of economy in our country, the social demand for electricity increases continuously, more and more money is invested to power grid by power grid enterprises. At the same time, in order to meet the needs of intensive management, power grid enterprises need to strengthen the restraint to investment behavior, correctly handle the relation of investment and benefit to achieve the maximum economic and social benefits, which brings enormous operating pressure to power grid enterprises. Therefore, how to understand investment benefit of power grid objectively and quantitatively is the key problem that the power grid enterprises face currently. On the basis of learning and drawing research results at home and abroad, a research to the theory, evaluation index system and evaluation model related power grid investment benefit post-evaluation was done. The development of the key technology in information realization was studied, combined with the needs of power grid investment benefit post-evaluation. Power grid investment benefit post-evaluation decision support system was proposed. The research work and achievements of this paper were reflected in the following five aspects:
(1) Based on the existing power grid investment evaluation system, the concept of power grid investment benefit post-evaluation was proposed, its meanings and roles were comprehensive and systematic described, which provided a new investment management thinking for the powder grid companies. Economical theory was used in constructing the powder grid C-D production function model and profit function model, that analyses the impact factors of the powder grid investment benefits, providing a theoretical basis for the power grid investment benefit post-evaluation methods.
(2) Considering the economic benefit and social benefit, the index system of power grid investment benefit post-evaluation was designed. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method called "Rejection Grade Universe" was put forward to be used for power grid investment benefit post-evaluation, and a complete comprehensive evaluation model was established, which provided a methodological guidance for power grid investment benefit post-evaluation practice.
(3) In accordance with the requirements to the integrity, timeliness and accuracy of data related power grid investment benefit post-evaluation, the view was put forward that it can be taken as an in-depth application of power enterprise data center, a ETL system based on lightweight architecture was researched and developed, and the key solutions to the problems were discussed,such as the data model, data storage and update strategy, data quality control, which provide effective technical support for the construction of the integrated data platform based on data fusion.
(4) According to the limitations of less universality for a number of comprehensive evaluation decision support systems, the evaluation model construction method based on AOV network was proposed, which made the "Free Dynamic Definition and maintain" of evaluation model possible. In this paper, the overall framework of the power grid investment benefit post-evaluation decision support system was designed, the key technology of the system was discussed, and the development of prototype system was completed, which provided an analytical application platform for Grid investment benefit post-evaluation.
(5) Taking six municipal electric power Companies as research objects, the paper established the integrated data platform based on the index system and evaluation model. Taking advantage of grid investment benefit post-evaluation decision support system, empirical analysis on relevant data in2009was made. Reasonable suggestions on the power grid investment demand of companies were also put forward.
(1)在对现有电网投资评价体系研究的基础上,提出了电网投资效益后评价的概念,全面系统的阐述了其内涵与作用,为电网企业的投资管理工作提供了新的思路。运用经济学理论,构建了电网的C-D生产函数模型和利润函数模型,分析了电网投资效益的影响要素,为电网投资效益后评价方法提供了理论基础。
(2)兼顾经济效益和社会效益,设计出电网投资效益后评价的指标体系。提出了采用“舍弃等级论域”的模糊数学综合评价法进行电网投资效益后评价,并构建出完整的综合评价数学模型,为电网投资效益后评价实践提供了方法指导。
(3)针对电网投资效益后评价对数据的完整性、时效性和准确性的要求,提出将其作为电力企业数据中心的一个深化应用,研究开发了基于轻量级架构的ETL系统,并且探讨了数据模型、数据存储及更新策略、数据质量控制方法等关键问题的解决方案,为构建基于多数据融合的综合数据平台提供了有效的技术支持。
(4)针对目前众多综合评价决策支持系统存在通用性较差的局限,提出了基于AOV网的评价模型构建方法,使得评价模型的“自由动态定义与维护”成为可能。并设计了电网投资效益后评价决策支持系统的总体框架,论述了系统实现的关键技术,完成了原型系统的开发,为电网投资效益后评价工作提供了分析应用平台。
(5)以某省电力公司直属的六个市供电公司为对象,根据研究的指标体系和评价模型,并建立了综合数据平台,利用电网投资效益后评价决策支持系统对各公司2009年的数据进行了实证分析,还对各公司的电网投资需求提出了合理建议。
As a critical infrastructure of national economy and social development, power grid development has always received great attention. With the rapid development of economy in our country, the social demand for electricity increases continuously, more and more money is invested to power grid by power grid enterprises. At the same time, in order to meet the needs of intensive management, power grid enterprises need to strengthen the restraint to investment behavior, correctly handle the relation of investment and benefit to achieve the maximum economic and social benefits, which brings enormous operating pressure to power grid enterprises. Therefore, how to understand investment benefit of power grid objectively and quantitatively is the key problem that the power grid enterprises face currently. On the basis of learning and drawing research results at home and abroad, a research to the theory, evaluation index system and evaluation model related power grid investment benefit post-evaluation was done. The development of the key technology in information realization was studied, combined with the needs of power grid investment benefit post-evaluation. Power grid investment benefit post-evaluation decision support system was proposed. The research work and achievements of this paper were reflected in the following five aspects:
(1) Based on the existing power grid investment evaluation system, the concept of power grid investment benefit post-evaluation was proposed, its meanings and roles were comprehensive and systematic described, which provided a new investment management thinking for the powder grid companies. Economical theory was used in constructing the powder grid C-D production function model and profit function model, that analyses the impact factors of the powder grid investment benefits, providing a theoretical basis for the power grid investment benefit post-evaluation methods.
(2) Considering the economic benefit and social benefit, the index system of power grid investment benefit post-evaluation was designed. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method called "Rejection Grade Universe" was put forward to be used for power grid investment benefit post-evaluation, and a complete comprehensive evaluation model was established, which provided a methodological guidance for power grid investment benefit post-evaluation practice.
(3) In accordance with the requirements to the integrity, timeliness and accuracy of data related power grid investment benefit post-evaluation, the view was put forward that it can be taken as an in-depth application of power enterprise data center, a ETL system based on lightweight architecture was researched and developed, and the key solutions to the problems were discussed,such as the data model, data storage and update strategy, data quality control, which provide effective technical support for the construction of the integrated data platform based on data fusion.
(4) According to the limitations of less universality for a number of comprehensive evaluation decision support systems, the evaluation model construction method based on AOV network was proposed, which made the "Free Dynamic Definition and maintain" of evaluation model possible. In this paper, the overall framework of the power grid investment benefit post-evaluation decision support system was designed, the key technology of the system was discussed, and the development of prototype system was completed, which provided an analytical application platform for Grid investment benefit post-evaluation.
(5) Taking six municipal electric power Companies as research objects, the paper established the integrated data platform based on the index system and evaluation model. Taking advantage of grid investment benefit post-evaluation decision support system, empirical analysis on relevant data in2009was made. Reasonable suggestions on the power grid investment demand of companies were also put forward.
引文
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