中国东北三省对外贸易与区域经济增长研究
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摘要
我国著名区域经济学家魏后凯认为区域经济是一种承上启下，并有着自己特点的中间性、非均衡性经济，是一种介于宏观经济和微观经济之间的中观经济。因此，任何区域的经济增长应将实现区域内经济总量增长、产业结构升级换代、居民社会福利增长的协调发展作为首要目标，即：首先，区域经济应注重与国家整体经济的衔接，其经济发展的步调与国家的经济发展计划保持一致，在兼顾国家利益的同时又要注重区域自身利益的实现；其次，应努力实现区域内产业结构的合理化和高度化，通过对区域内产业结构的调整和管理，实现区域产业结构优化；最后，还应积极谋求区域内居民福利的增长，充分满足区域内居民日益增长的各种物质文化需要。
按照邓小平关于国内区域经济发展“两个大局”的战略构想，启动东北地区经济振兴战略，有利于在中国形成“东西联动，南北呼应”的发展格局。党的十六大报告中又明确提出了“支持东北地区等老工业基地加快调整与改造”的宏观经济发展战略。为此，东北三省应按照国家的部署，切实把进一步对内对外开放作为振兴东北地区经济的重要途径，对内锁定和实现东北经济振兴目标，对外关注和促进东北三省对外贸易的顺利展开。
在开放经济条件下，对外贸易的发展对区域经济的发展极为重要。由于经济发展的非均衡性，对外贸易在区域经济发展过程中所发挥的作用大小也不尽相同。基于此，本文将把国际贸易理论与区域经济理论作为基本的理论基础，以东北三省对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系为研究对象，探讨区域经济发展过程中，对外贸易与区域经济增长、区域产业结构优化、区域劳动就业间的关联性及作用机制。最后，立足于东北三省的实际情况，提出在东北三省区域经济发展过程中促进对外贸易发展的意见与建议。
第一章是绪论部分，首先叙述了本文的研究背景，再对本文的研究意义以及研究方法等进行简明扼要的说明，最后在对国内外相关的研究状况进行系统的梳理和总结的基础上，分析了当前的研究现状，并对当前的研究现状进行简单的归类与评述。
第二章是基本概念与基础理论部分，这部分对本文中涉及到的经济增长理论、国际贸易理论以及对外贸易与经济增长相互影响等主要基础理论进行总结与概括，在对相关基础理论及其前人研究成果的归纳总结以及再认识的基础上，提出本文的研究思路，为以后各章的分析研究作好理论准备。具体而言，将对外贸易与区域经济增长之间的关系分为三个部分，一是对外贸易与区域经济总量增长之间的关系；二是对外贸易与区域产业结构之间的关系；三是对外贸易与区域就业之间的关系。
第三章以理论与实证相结合的方式研究了东北三省对外贸易与区域经济总量之间的关联性，通过对一系列数量指标的分析以及对相关时间序列的计量分析，揭示了东北三省对外贸易与区域经济总量之间相互作用的内在机理，清晰地显示出东北三省对外贸易发展在促进区域经济总量增长中所发挥的作用。第四章以理论与实证相结合的方式研究了东北三省对外贸易与区域产业结构之间的关联性，通过对一系列数量指标的分析以及对相关时间序列的计量分析，揭示了东北三省对外贸易与区域产业结构优化之间相互作用的内在机理，清晰地显示出东北三省对外贸易发展在促进区域产业结构变化过程中所发挥的作用。
第五章以理论与实证相结合的方式研究了东北三省对外贸易与区域就业之间的关联性，通过对一系列数量指标的分析以及对相关时间序列的计量分析，揭示了东北三省对外贸易与区域就业之间相互作用的内在机理，清晰地显示出东北三省对外贸易发展在促进区域就业中所发挥的作用。
第六章采用主体计算经济学研究方法，建立了一个基于东北三省区域经济现实的微观模拟模型，在此基础上对东北三省对外贸易与区域经济总量增长、产业结构优化及就业的耦合关联进行了实证研究。鉴于宏观层面的经济分析应建立在微观经济学相关理论的基础之上，因此本文通过各级经济主体之间以及主体与政府政策之间的相互博弈，最终模拟出目标的经济现实。
第七章首先对东北三省对外贸易的空间格局特征进行评析，在对各省统计年鉴的相关数据进行整理和归纳的基础上，得出当前东北三省对外贸易伙伴主要集中于美、日、欧等发达国家（地区）的原因是由于东北三省出口主要集中于劳动密集型产品，而进口主要集中于技术密集型产品这一现实状况所决定的。在此基础上对影响东北三省对外贸易发展的主要因素进行分析，并提出应逐步完善东北三省外贸出口基地的建设，加大东北三省对外贸易商品结构优化力度，加强与周边经济实体，尤其是东北亚各主要经济实体之间的联系以应对国际金融危机等诸多具体举措。
第八章为调控机制与对策建议部分，作为本文的归结点，本章首先结合东北三省社会经济发展的实际情况，提出建立东北三省统一调控机构的战略构想，在阐述调控机构建立的重要意义以及相应的主要职能的基础上，认为该机构不仅要做到立足当前着眼长远，对东北三省区域内具有重大影响的建设项目进行统筹规划；还要促使东北三省各省之间形成一个协调一致的对外立场，作为一个区域整体参与国际分工与合作，获取更多的收益。东北三省统一的调控机构通过“统筹规划、资源共享、合作竞争、优势互补”，谋求并最终实现东北三省的共同发展。其次，对东北三省对外贸易与区域经济增长、产业结构发展、就业增长相互之间如何实现协调发展提出相应的对策与建议。
Wei Houkai, a Chinese famous regional economist, considers that regional economy is amiddle and unbalanced economy with its own characteristics. It is a“mesoeconomics”between macroeconomics and microeconomics. So any regional economic growth shouldrealize the regional economic growth, the upgrading of industrial structure, and the growth ofsocial welfare as a primary goal. That is, first of all, the pace of the regional economicdevelopment should consist with the nation's economic development plans. Balance theinterests of the state, while pay attention to the realization of regional interests; second,through the adjustment and management in local industrial structure, making efforts toachieve the regional industrial structure optimization; finally, actively seek the social welfaregrowth, and at the same time, fully satisfy the growing material and cultural needs of arearesidents .
According to the conception of "two overall situations" from Deng Xiaoping about thedomestic regional economic development，the Chinese government startted the economicreform in the three Northeast provinces, which in favour of forming the developedpattern—“linking the east and the west, matching the south and the north”in China. Thereport of Chinese Communist Party's Sixteenth National Congress clearly proposed theMacroeconomic developing strategy—“supporting Northeast and other old industrial bases tospeed up the adjustment and innovation.”Therefore, according to the national deployment,the three provinces in Northeast China should put the internal and external opening asimportant ways to rejuvenate the regional economy: achieve the economic rejuvenation goalsinternally and promot foreign trade externally.
Foreign trade plays an important role in the development of regional economy in thecondition of opening. However, the role of foreign trade is different in the regional economicdevelopment due to the unbalanced economic development. So this paper puts theinternational trade theory and the regional economic theory as basic theories, studies therelationship between foreign trade and economic growth in the three provinces in NortheastChina, and discusses the relationship and mechanism of action in foreign trade and regionaleconomic growth、regional industrial structure optimization、regional employment through theregional economic development process. Finally, based on the actual situation, it makessuggestions to promote the development of foreign trade in the three Northeast provinces.The first chapter is an introduction. First, it describes the research background. Then, itdemonstrates the meaning and research methods of the paper. Finally, it analyses the currentstatus of research and gives comments and classification to this situation, based onsummarizing current researches at home and abroad systematically.
Chapter Two introduces basic concepts and theories in this paper, which involveseconomic growth theory、international trade theory、the interaction theory between foreigntrade and economic growth. The chapter proposes research ideas, which are based on the summarization and recognition to the related theories and previous research results, andprepares for the analysis in the following chapters. Specifically, the survey of the relationshipbetween foreign trade and regional economic growth is divided into three parts, the first partis the relationship between foreign trade and regional economic growth; the second part is therelationship between foreign trade and regional industrial structure; the third is therelationship between foreign trade and regional employment.
Chapter Three researched the relevence between foreign trade and regional ecnomicgrowth in the three provinces in Northeast China, through the combination of the theoreticaland empirical studies. It also analyzes a series of quantitative indicators and related timeseries and revealed that the internal mechanism between foreign trade and regional ecnomicvolume in the three provinces in Northeast China. It clearly shows that foreign trade plays arole in regional economic growth in the three provinces in Northeast China.
Chapter Four researched the relevence between foreign trade and regional industrialstructure in the three provinces in Northeast China, through the combination of the theoreticaland empirical studies. By the analyses to a series of quantitative indicators and related timeseries, the paper reveals that the internal mechanism between foreign trade and regionalindustrial structure optimization in the three provinces in Northeast China. It clearly showsthat the development of foreign trade plays a role in the changing process of regionalindustrial structure in the three provinces in Northeast China.
Chapter Five researched the relevence between foreign trade and regional employment inthe three provinces in Northeast China, through the combination of the theoretical andempirical studies. Through the analyses to a series of quantitative indicators and related timeseries, revealed that the internal mechanism between foreign trade and regional employmentin the three provinces in Northeast China. It clearly shows that foreign trade plays a role inregional employment in the three provinces in Northeast China.
Based on the regional economic reality in the three provinces in Northeast China,Chapter Six uses Main Computational Economics research methods, establishes amicroscopic simulation model and makes coupling association for empirical research toforeign trade and regional economic growth, industrial structure optimization and theemployment in the three Northeast provinces. In view of the macroeconomic analysis shallestablish in microeconomics related theory basis, this paper through mutual games amongeconomic subjects at all levels, and between subjects and government, eventually simulate theobjective economic reality.
In Chapter Seven, the spatial pattern of foreign trade in the three provinces in NortheastChina is first commented and analyzed, and then bases on the analysis of the data that wasderived from the statistical yearbooks released by the three provinces, a conclusion is drawnthat the export of labor-intensive products and the import of technology-intensive productscombine to account for the fact that the major trade partners of the three provinces are USA,Japan and Europe. Some leading factors that influence the development of foreign trade in theNortheast are also examined. Accordingly, measures are proposed, which involve graduallyconstructing export base in the Northeast, continually promoting the optimization of foreign trade of the Northeast, and strengthening the ties with neighboring economies, those majorones in northeast Asia in particular, in combating the international financial crisis.
Chapter Eight is devoted to the discussion of regulation mechanism and suggestions. Asthe concluding part, this chapter first proposes a strategic vision of establishing a unifiedregulation institution for the three provinces, whose job, of great significance, is expected toinvolve planning as a whole some major influential projects in that region, and unifying thethree provinces as a regional one to assume a uniform stance and participate in internationallabor division and cooperation. The unified regulation institution is designed to boost thecommon development of the three provinces through“overall planning, resource sharing,cooperating and competing, complementing each other's advantages”. Besides, suggestionsthat regards to the well-coordinated development of the foreign trade in the three provincesand regional economies, industrial structure and employment are put forward as well.
按照邓小平关于国内区域经济发展“两个大局”的战略构想，启动东北地区经济振兴战略，有利于在中国形成“东西联动，南北呼应”的发展格局。党的十六大报告中又明确提出了“支持东北地区等老工业基地加快调整与改造”的宏观经济发展战略。为此，东北三省应按照国家的部署，切实把进一步对内对外开放作为振兴东北地区经济的重要途径，对内锁定和实现东北经济振兴目标，对外关注和促进东北三省对外贸易的顺利展开。
在开放经济条件下，对外贸易的发展对区域经济的发展极为重要。由于经济发展的非均衡性，对外贸易在区域经济发展过程中所发挥的作用大小也不尽相同。基于此，本文将把国际贸易理论与区域经济理论作为基本的理论基础，以东北三省对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系为研究对象，探讨区域经济发展过程中，对外贸易与区域经济增长、区域产业结构优化、区域劳动就业间的关联性及作用机制。最后，立足于东北三省的实际情况，提出在东北三省区域经济发展过程中促进对外贸易发展的意见与建议。
第一章是绪论部分，首先叙述了本文的研究背景，再对本文的研究意义以及研究方法等进行简明扼要的说明，最后在对国内外相关的研究状况进行系统的梳理和总结的基础上，分析了当前的研究现状，并对当前的研究现状进行简单的归类与评述。
第二章是基本概念与基础理论部分，这部分对本文中涉及到的经济增长理论、国际贸易理论以及对外贸易与经济增长相互影响等主要基础理论进行总结与概括，在对相关基础理论及其前人研究成果的归纳总结以及再认识的基础上，提出本文的研究思路，为以后各章的分析研究作好理论准备。具体而言，将对外贸易与区域经济增长之间的关系分为三个部分，一是对外贸易与区域经济总量增长之间的关系；二是对外贸易与区域产业结构之间的关系；三是对外贸易与区域就业之间的关系。
第三章以理论与实证相结合的方式研究了东北三省对外贸易与区域经济总量之间的关联性，通过对一系列数量指标的分析以及对相关时间序列的计量分析，揭示了东北三省对外贸易与区域经济总量之间相互作用的内在机理，清晰地显示出东北三省对外贸易发展在促进区域经济总量增长中所发挥的作用。第四章以理论与实证相结合的方式研究了东北三省对外贸易与区域产业结构之间的关联性，通过对一系列数量指标的分析以及对相关时间序列的计量分析，揭示了东北三省对外贸易与区域产业结构优化之间相互作用的内在机理，清晰地显示出东北三省对外贸易发展在促进区域产业结构变化过程中所发挥的作用。
第五章以理论与实证相结合的方式研究了东北三省对外贸易与区域就业之间的关联性，通过对一系列数量指标的分析以及对相关时间序列的计量分析，揭示了东北三省对外贸易与区域就业之间相互作用的内在机理，清晰地显示出东北三省对外贸易发展在促进区域就业中所发挥的作用。
第六章采用主体计算经济学研究方法，建立了一个基于东北三省区域经济现实的微观模拟模型，在此基础上对东北三省对外贸易与区域经济总量增长、产业结构优化及就业的耦合关联进行了实证研究。鉴于宏观层面的经济分析应建立在微观经济学相关理论的基础之上，因此本文通过各级经济主体之间以及主体与政府政策之间的相互博弈，最终模拟出目标的经济现实。
第七章首先对东北三省对外贸易的空间格局特征进行评析，在对各省统计年鉴的相关数据进行整理和归纳的基础上，得出当前东北三省对外贸易伙伴主要集中于美、日、欧等发达国家（地区）的原因是由于东北三省出口主要集中于劳动密集型产品，而进口主要集中于技术密集型产品这一现实状况所决定的。在此基础上对影响东北三省对外贸易发展的主要因素进行分析，并提出应逐步完善东北三省外贸出口基地的建设，加大东北三省对外贸易商品结构优化力度，加强与周边经济实体，尤其是东北亚各主要经济实体之间的联系以应对国际金融危机等诸多具体举措。
第八章为调控机制与对策建议部分，作为本文的归结点，本章首先结合东北三省社会经济发展的实际情况，提出建立东北三省统一调控机构的战略构想，在阐述调控机构建立的重要意义以及相应的主要职能的基础上，认为该机构不仅要做到立足当前着眼长远，对东北三省区域内具有重大影响的建设项目进行统筹规划；还要促使东北三省各省之间形成一个协调一致的对外立场，作为一个区域整体参与国际分工与合作，获取更多的收益。东北三省统一的调控机构通过“统筹规划、资源共享、合作竞争、优势互补”，谋求并最终实现东北三省的共同发展。其次，对东北三省对外贸易与区域经济增长、产业结构发展、就业增长相互之间如何实现协调发展提出相应的对策与建议。
Wei Houkai, a Chinese famous regional economist, considers that regional economy is amiddle and unbalanced economy with its own characteristics. It is a“mesoeconomics”between macroeconomics and microeconomics. So any regional economic growth shouldrealize the regional economic growth, the upgrading of industrial structure, and the growth ofsocial welfare as a primary goal. That is, first of all, the pace of the regional economicdevelopment should consist with the nation's economic development plans. Balance theinterests of the state, while pay attention to the realization of regional interests; second,through the adjustment and management in local industrial structure, making efforts toachieve the regional industrial structure optimization; finally, actively seek the social welfaregrowth, and at the same time, fully satisfy the growing material and cultural needs of arearesidents .
According to the conception of "two overall situations" from Deng Xiaoping about thedomestic regional economic development，the Chinese government startted the economicreform in the three Northeast provinces, which in favour of forming the developedpattern—“linking the east and the west, matching the south and the north”in China. Thereport of Chinese Communist Party's Sixteenth National Congress clearly proposed theMacroeconomic developing strategy—“supporting Northeast and other old industrial bases tospeed up the adjustment and innovation.”Therefore, according to the national deployment,the three provinces in Northeast China should put the internal and external opening asimportant ways to rejuvenate the regional economy: achieve the economic rejuvenation goalsinternally and promot foreign trade externally.
Foreign trade plays an important role in the development of regional economy in thecondition of opening. However, the role of foreign trade is different in the regional economicdevelopment due to the unbalanced economic development. So this paper puts theinternational trade theory and the regional economic theory as basic theories, studies therelationship between foreign trade and economic growth in the three provinces in NortheastChina, and discusses the relationship and mechanism of action in foreign trade and regionaleconomic growth、regional industrial structure optimization、regional employment through theregional economic development process. Finally, based on the actual situation, it makessuggestions to promote the development of foreign trade in the three Northeast provinces.The first chapter is an introduction. First, it describes the research background. Then, itdemonstrates the meaning and research methods of the paper. Finally, it analyses the currentstatus of research and gives comments and classification to this situation, based onsummarizing current researches at home and abroad systematically.
Chapter Two introduces basic concepts and theories in this paper, which involveseconomic growth theory、international trade theory、the interaction theory between foreigntrade and economic growth. The chapter proposes research ideas, which are based on the summarization and recognition to the related theories and previous research results, andprepares for the analysis in the following chapters. Specifically, the survey of the relationshipbetween foreign trade and regional economic growth is divided into three parts, the first partis the relationship between foreign trade and regional economic growth; the second part is therelationship between foreign trade and regional industrial structure; the third is therelationship between foreign trade and regional employment.
Chapter Three researched the relevence between foreign trade and regional ecnomicgrowth in the three provinces in Northeast China, through the combination of the theoreticaland empirical studies. It also analyzes a series of quantitative indicators and related timeseries and revealed that the internal mechanism between foreign trade and regional ecnomicvolume in the three provinces in Northeast China. It clearly shows that foreign trade plays arole in regional economic growth in the three provinces in Northeast China.
Chapter Four researched the relevence between foreign trade and regional industrialstructure in the three provinces in Northeast China, through the combination of the theoreticaland empirical studies. By the analyses to a series of quantitative indicators and related timeseries, the paper reveals that the internal mechanism between foreign trade and regionalindustrial structure optimization in the three provinces in Northeast China. It clearly showsthat the development of foreign trade plays a role in the changing process of regionalindustrial structure in the three provinces in Northeast China.
Chapter Five researched the relevence between foreign trade and regional employment inthe three provinces in Northeast China, through the combination of the theoretical andempirical studies. Through the analyses to a series of quantitative indicators and related timeseries, revealed that the internal mechanism between foreign trade and regional employmentin the three provinces in Northeast China. It clearly shows that foreign trade plays a role inregional employment in the three provinces in Northeast China.
Based on the regional economic reality in the three provinces in Northeast China,Chapter Six uses Main Computational Economics research methods, establishes amicroscopic simulation model and makes coupling association for empirical research toforeign trade and regional economic growth, industrial structure optimization and theemployment in the three Northeast provinces. In view of the macroeconomic analysis shallestablish in microeconomics related theory basis, this paper through mutual games amongeconomic subjects at all levels, and between subjects and government, eventually simulate theobjective economic reality.
In Chapter Seven, the spatial pattern of foreign trade in the three provinces in NortheastChina is first commented and analyzed, and then bases on the analysis of the data that wasderived from the statistical yearbooks released by the three provinces, a conclusion is drawnthat the export of labor-intensive products and the import of technology-intensive productscombine to account for the fact that the major trade partners of the three provinces are USA,Japan and Europe. Some leading factors that influence the development of foreign trade in theNortheast are also examined. Accordingly, measures are proposed, which involve graduallyconstructing export base in the Northeast, continually promoting the optimization of foreign trade of the Northeast, and strengthening the ties with neighboring economies, those majorones in northeast Asia in particular, in combating the international financial crisis.
Chapter Eight is devoted to the discussion of regulation mechanism and suggestions. Asthe concluding part, this chapter first proposes a strategic vision of establishing a unifiedregulation institution for the three provinces, whose job, of great significance, is expected toinvolve planning as a whole some major influential projects in that region, and unifying thethree provinces as a regional one to assume a uniform stance and participate in internationallabor division and cooperation. The unified regulation institution is designed to boost thecommon development of the three provinces through“overall planning, resource sharing,cooperating and competing, complementing each other's advantages”. Besides, suggestionsthat regards to the well-coordinated development of the foreign trade in the three provincesand regional economies, industrial structure and employment are put forward as well.
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